I don't find the pikachu clue analysis very convincing as I can't relate a single one of your clues to pikachu. For example I see nothing about a shockwave on the posted card, and how sprinting is related to pokemon is simply beyond me. But that might be because I'm not familiar with pokemon.
It seems like confirming the innocence of the elects is really hard. Which means that they probably can't fullfil the role of trusted person. So imo there most important role of them is leadership and organizing the execution of the plan(s) once we have decided on them. Another role might be that of a sock puppet speaking for trusted persons.
I think babyhands really fails concerning the aspect of leadership, his style reminds me of the game where fakesteve became mayor, which was really annoying. Also I think the earlier candidates might have a lower chance of being mafia, as the mafia might need some time to organize who wants to candidate. This prefers BC and SOG over Pyr and baby. so #I vote for BloddyCobbler
Anyway Detectives, the first people you should investigate are the people voting. I still don't see how it's possible people could be voting because others offered their candidacy early like that has any importance whatsoever on being innocent or guilty. We've already established that can't be proven so it's pointless. Right now we should be trying to get veteran and good players with a good track record in that sheriff/mayor spot. The only one of them that fulfills that is BC as he's played for so long, but I still think MrBabyHands is a much better player as he has really good analysis abilities. I'm sticking my vote with him.
Plus, I think if there is a clue that is related in any way to a campaigner, that it would be foolish to vote for him. SemiOldGuy has the hearing thing against him, so voting for him is a bit risky imo. I can't find any real clues relating to BC or Pyrr, so I think it's much safer to vote for them.
On March 19 2009 06:15 Ace wrote: Um wow why is this game activity dead?
Anyway Detectives, the first people you should investigate are the people voting. I still don't see how it's possible people could be voting because others offered their candidacy early like that has any importance whatsoever on being innocent or guilty. We've already established that can't be proven so it's pointless. Right now we should be trying to get veteran and good players with a good track record in that sheriff/mayor spot. The only one of them that fulfills that is BC as he's played for so long, but I still think MrBabyHands is a much better player as he has really good analysis abilities. I'm sticking my vote with him.
Game activity dead? Good god man, it was Saint Patrick's Day yesterday; I just now checked the game activity.
-obviously I don't have the time to really run for mayor
-I really don't think we should be lynching Pikachu based on the shockwave clue
MrBabyhand's idea is based fully on behavioural analysis which is fine to a certain extent, but obviously he trusts that too much. People on tl.net are not sheep. I was killed because of this when I was innocent in Ace's game while I heavily contributed for the town in Chuiu's (I think it was) 3rd game when I was mafia. While behavioural analysis might be right in like 70% of all cases, saying stuff like
i disagree. i think a skilled player can nail the mafia with amazingly high odds using behavioral analysis. much higher than 70%
On March 19 2009 04:55 Mandalor wrote: You take it as fact that mafia is stupid and that is naive.
they are. and they make mistakes-- they overcompensate or underperform. they have slight imperfections in their posts and sometimes they try so hard to look innocent that it backfires. mafia are under more pressure than innocents, and 9 times out of 10, you can tell if you know where to look.
Just to make that clear, I'm not saying behaviour analysis is a bad thing. It was the most dominant key to town's success in most mafia games on this site, but it was always only successful in combination with clue analysis (and the DT/Jack power). I just think you're jumping the gun when you say a player like Caller is most likely innocent when all he did was say he'd run for mayor and another one saying he's not running. That said, I don't think he acted suspiciously, just that we need deeper analysis than what you offered thus far.
There are at least 4 possible links from the day one post to Pikachu, the shockwave clue is one of the least persuasive of them so y'all are selling this a bit short - if you find something better, share, but I'm under the impression the mayor has to choose a day 1 lynch so this is the best I've got:
1. Shock wave is a Pikachu move
"He got to the door just before the explosion and was caught in the shockwave."
"They approached Chuiu slowly and he backed up to a safer distance keeping the gun aimed at them. When they stopped he lowered the gun slightly and told them to put their hands behind their backs and get on the ground, then he yelled at the third person to get out of the car."
It could be that Chuiu lowers the gun a bit because he realizes one of them is short so he aim it at them a little better. This one isn't that great or important.
3,4. One mafia can grab a gun with his hand behind his back - this same mafia stands up at rest and then runs while leaned over.
"One of the mafia complied and began lowering down to the ground, Chuiu raised his gun at the other and yelled at him to do the same. But while he did so the mafia lowering himself sprinted toward Chuiu and with his hands still behind his head grabbed the gun and threw it to the side."
Notice that Pikachu stands up straight on two feet while at rest, then runs parallel to the ground - Pikachu would have no problem sprinting while lowering to the ground: (I knew my tv tuner would serve a purpose someday!)
Also, Pikachu would have no problem grabbing a gun with his hands behind his back because he grabs them with this mouth:
5. This same mafia can throw a gun to the side without using his hands:
"with his hands still behind his head grabbed the gun and threw it to the side"
6. This same mafia uses a tackle move:
"He tackled Chuiu to the ground and then ran over to the gun and armed himself with it."
Thankyou masterofchaos for that post, saved me a lot of time, I have more to say but for now just getting in before final vote count:
I vote for MrBabyHands
I'm a huge fan of behavioural analysis and he seems to know what he's doing here and really this game, complex plans trying to set up an inner circle or w/e are just going to be a waste of our time and risk too many blue roles. Behavioural and clue analysis is going to be the way to go.
Most of the plans that have been put forward so far have massive holes in them, I'll get into the stuff that hasn't been covered by other players soon.
On March 19 2009 07:18 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: There are at least 4 possible links from the day one post to Pikachu, the shockwave clue is one of the least persuasive of them so y'all are selling this a bit short - if you find something better, share, but I'm under the impression the mayor has to choose a day 1 lynch so this is the best I've got:
1. Shock wave is a Pikachu move
"He got to the door just before the explosion and was caught in the shockwave."
"They approached Chuiu slowly and he backed up to a safer distance keeping the gun aimed at them. When they stopped he lowered the gun slightly and told them to put their hands behind their backs and get on the ground, then he yelled at the third person to get out of the car."
It could be that Chuiu lowers the gun a bit because he realizes one of them is short so he aim it at them a little better. This one isn't that great or important.
3,4. One mafia can grab a gun with his hand behind his back - this same mafia stands up at rest and then runs while leaned over.
"One of the mafia complied and began lowering down to the ground, Chuiu raised his gun at the other and yelled at him to do the same. But while he did so the mafia lowering himself sprinted toward Chuiu and with his hands still behind his head grabbed the gun and threw it to the side."
Notice that Pikachu stands up straight on two feet while at rest, then runs parallel to the ground - Pikachu would have no problem sprinting while lowering to the ground: (I knew my tv tuner would serve a purpose someday!)
I certainly believe those people are innocent. But thats really kinda secondary to what i was actually doing.
First Test: Yesterday, i said "the mafia arent being active. they arent running for office. and they arent posting their thoughts"
Today, we have 3 people that have stood out to me. People who didnt contribute much yesterday, but posted contributory thoughts (not just 1 or 2 sentences) today: mandalor, MC, and ver
Second Test: Yesterday, I posted a list of the people I believe are innocent.
Some people questioned it. Since i was sure the mafia werent online or participating at the time, questioning such a list is certainly something the logged-on innocents would do.
But a lot changes in a night. Today, i fully expected the mafia to read yesterday's posts, including my list. I also expected them to notice that i said "questioning the list is something an innocent would do." So, if the mafia read that, I would expect them to start doing just that-- questioning the list in an attempt to appear as innocent as the others.
Of the 3 people i identified earlier, one of them also questioned the list: mandalor
In addition, mandalor's direct response to the list was -------- On March 19 2009 04:55 Mandalor wrote: You take it as fact that mafia is stupid and that is naive. --------
In my experience, it's usually the mafia that explicitly defends a quality of the mafia (in this case, he defended the mafia's intelligence).
On March 19 2009 07:18 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: There are at least 4 possible links from the day one post to Pikachu, the shockwave clue is one of the least persuasive of them so y'all are selling this a bit short - if you find something better, share, but I'm under the impression the mayor has to choose a day 1 lynch so this is the best I've got:
1. Shock wave is a Pikachu move
"He got to the door just before the explosion and was caught in the shockwave."
"They approached Chuiu slowly and he backed up to a safer distance keeping the gun aimed at them. When they stopped he lowered the gun slightly and told them to put their hands behind their backs and get on the ground, then he yelled at the third person to get out of the car."
It could be that Chuiu lowers the gun a bit because he realizes one of them is short so he aim it at them a little better. This one isn't that great or important.
3,4. One mafia can grab a gun with his hand behind his back - this same mafia stands up at rest and then runs while leaned over.
"One of the mafia complied and began lowering down to the ground, Chuiu raised his gun at the other and yelled at him to do the same. But while he did so the mafia lowering himself sprinted toward Chuiu and with his hands still behind his head grabbed the gun and threw it to the side."
Notice that Pikachu stands up straight on two feet while at rest, then runs parallel to the ground - Pikachu would have no problem sprinting while lowering to the ground: (I knew my tv tuner would serve a purpose someday!)
#1From that page: Shock Wave (Japanese: でんげきは Electrical Shock Wave) is a damage-dealing Electric-type move introduced in Generation III.
Shock wave is an electrical shock wave. The shockwave in the story was an explosion shockwave. Can't you make the difference?
#2 He lowered the gun because: a) the guys stopped and put the hands over their heads, therefore not being a threat b) normal policeman training, YOU DON'T SHOOT FOR THE HEAD, you shoot FOR THE LEGS.
#3,4 Jesus, can't you even read the whole story?
One of the mafia complied and began lowering down to the ground, Chuiu raised his gun at the other and yelled at him to do the same. But while he did so the mafia lowering himself sprinted toward Chuiu.
What this means is: the mafia who was before lowering himself to the ground is now sprinting to Chuiu, and NOT that the mafia is lowering himself to sprint to chuiu.
With this kind of clue analyzing, the mafia won't have much trouble winning the game.
But then maybe Pyrrhuloxia is actually very smart and he's a mafia member. Then he's playing this very good being keen and forcing all kind of clue connections just to lynch a green or blue.
But if he somehow manages to convince you to vote for him and lynch me, than my sacrifice won't be in vain as you would surely know it's him who's mafia and shall be lynched the next day.
Well, I'm happy you're defending yourself now, Mr. Chu, but at this point I think the best defense for you would be a good offense so I challenge you to find a better target for Day 1 and hope you find one where I have thus far failed.
One of the mafia complied and began lowering down to the ground, Chuiu raised his gun at the other and yelled at him to do the same. But while he did so the mafia lowering himself sprinted toward Chuiu.
What this means is: the mafia who was before lowering himself to the ground is now sprinting to Chuiu, and NOT that the mafia is lowering himself to sprint to chuiu.
What? I don't even understand what your saying here. All of your defenses seem to be predicated on the idea that Chuiu can't possibly require clue analysis to use any lateral thinking whatsoever.
The biggest mistake you guys are doing is bandwagoning with the veterans. Simply trusting them because they proved to be good players in the last games is a big mistake, these are different games, keep that in mind! You can't know if he's mafia or not and giving such a vote of confidence to mafia is killing the town slowly. You really need to keep in mind that every game is unique.
And here i'm giving the example of one guy who changed his vote from someone to MrBabyHands just because Ace voted him and he trusts Ace. You sheep...
And MrBabyHands's theory about behavioral analysis is absolutely gibberish.
And him blaming Mandalor, is not a result of analysing but more like a decision to blame him and then trying to put together an "analysis". That's called pseudo-rationality.
On March 19 2009 08:02 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: Well, I'm happy you're defending yourself now, Mr. Chu, but at this point I think the best defense for you would be a good offense so I challenge you to find a better target for Day 1 and hope you find one where I have thus far failed.
No mate, i am positive that you are a mafia and the best thing would be a sacrifice of me. Since you were keen on blaming me and finding stupid connections that point toward me, if they do follow you and lynch me, after they'll see i was green/blue you will be the next to be lynched. And there'll be 1 less mafia for 1 less townie which is a good ratio.
But yeah, still props to you for managing to find those clues/connections even as fade as they are.
Shockwave is also the name of the archon's move. If you're so inclined, can anyone run a program or make a list of people's icons? From a quick skim, the closest things I noticed were a high templar and a dark archon. Personally, it seems foolish to make such broad a term a clue in this game.
An MrBabyHands, as much as I want to believe otherwise, what your post sounds like is you playing the game with no clear intention and then adding a false purpose to what you were doing to convince yourself and others of what is not fact. I know because I've thought this way AFTER everything played out (be it a day or a couple of days). There is a degree of randomness that one could never account for, so I'm simply inclined to believe that you're convinced Mandalor is mafia simply by HOW he sounds; in order to convince us, you've created a somewhat elaborate scheme. You weren't actually consciously doing it, or at least as consciously as you make it out to seem, which is indicated by your need to quote your words.
If you had done it consciously, you would not have needed to quote your words because the connection would have already been clear. Quoting your own words indicates that you're looking for that connection. Stating your train of thought and such perfect of examples to what you were expecting further indicates that you're simply adjusting to the situation.
I'm all for behavioral analysis, but don't falsify your own. You may end up losing an audience. Also, why give mafia a means and guide to amend and improve their ways? Townies and mafia alike will read your post, and in order to prove themselves as townie, they'll begin to overcompensate. A paramedics "I know I can't prove it now but I'll do anything you say to prove it later" will become "This is how a townie is expected to act so I'll act super-townie so the guys up there won't lynch me and will take me more seriously."
Because I do believe in the efficiency of this method, have you noticed anything else in the past day besides the already stated in the post above?
Pyrrhuloxia, First of all, it seems to me that you are trying to find multiple clues to connect to 1 person off a day 1 post. This just won't happen. There might be 1 clue connection to a few of the mafia, but you won't find several connections. (And finding connections to day 1 clues is HIGHLY unlikely. The clues are intentionally harder on day 1 than they are on days after that.) Second of all, at least your charging idea doesn't fit. In your video, pikachu's arms touch the ground when he charges forward. Unless I am seriously misinterpreting the day post, the mafioso's hands are behind his head THE ENTIRE TIME. Third of all, you don't want to avoid the lynch on day 1. Even if the town just kills off an inactive, they are still better off than if they had not hit anyone. Finally, a different mayoral lynch suspect has been proposed. MrBabyHands has accused Mandalor. If you cannot find a better candidate than Pika Chu, I ask that you at least consider his analysis on Mandalor, even if you think of it only as a way of testing his behavioral analysis skills. Haven't you noticed that some of the strongest players in the game (Ace, Ver) are already supporting him? While it IS a possibility that all 3 are mafia, I don't see lynching someone off bad/misleading behavioral analysis as worse than lynching someone off day 1 clue analysis.
One of the mafia complied and began lowering down to the ground, Chuiu raised his gun at the other and yelled at him to do the same. But while he did so the mafia lowering himself sprinted toward Chuiu.
What this means is: the mafia who was before lowering himself to the ground is now sprinting to Chuiu, and NOT that the mafia is lowering himself to sprint to chuiu.
What? I don't even understand what your saying here. All of your defenses seem to be predicated on the idea that Chuiu can't possibly require clue analysis to use any lateral thinking whatsoever.
EDIT: Grammar
I'll explain if you don't understand.
This is your point: 3,4. One mafia can grab a gun with his hand behind his back - this same mafia stands up at rest and then runs while leaned over.
"One of the mafia complied and began lowering down to the ground, Chuiu raised his gun at the other and yelled at him to do the same. But while he did so the mafia lowering himself sprinted toward Chuiu and with his hands still behind his head grabbed the gun and threw it to the side."
Notice that Pikachu stands up straight on two feet while at rest, then runs parallel to the ground - Pikachu would have no problem sprinting while lowering to the ground:
You are assuming that the guy HAS lowered himself in order to run and you are quoting mafia lowering himself sprinted . That is because you didn't read the whole phrase. Chuiu mentioned that one of the mafia WAS lowering himself to comply with his request. Now there's no mention that the guy has lowered himself in order to sprint OR that he sprinted while being lowered/leaned.
EPT
