EPTthose clues seem solid enough for him to be mafia yet vague enough to be genuine first day clues. Though the grabbing guns part was a little meh, I think i could be possible with the others.
TL Mafia 5 [Game Over] - Page 24
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
those clues seem solid enough for him to be mafia yet vague enough to be genuine first day clues. Though the grabbing guns part was a little meh, I think i could be possible with the others. | ||
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0cz3c
United States564 Posts
I'm fairly big on analyzing behavior, but it's very hard to do over the Internet. Firstly, it's written not said. You don't get to see their facial expressions when they say what they do. Secondly, you also don't see what has been typed or thought out before it was published (that is to say, what is replied has already been proofread to convey a specific message). Generally speaking, that serves to throw off the town. Most of what you say is extremely presumptuous. I'm not saying that Mandalor is not mafia (I haven't got a clue), but you certainly are far from making any convincing argument. There are many faults with your analysis. You say, "You take it as fact that mafia is stupid and that is naive." In my own experience, having played on this forum and been a mafia, mafia is least likely to defend a quality of the mafia. Whenever I played, I would try to say as little about the mafia as possible, unless I decided to shift the blame onto someone else. Anything defensive, the mafia, I'm sure, must know very well, may be perceived to their disadvantage. As a mafia, you're most likely to give either garbage clue analysis (as most people who analyze clues are generally regarded as contributing to the town), attack someone who has already been declared mafia (that is to say, bandwagon, and this includes itself for almost any situation), and slyly manipulate the town to your own ends, which they can achieve by simply feigning inactivity or inconspicuously rousing chaos. A mafia member is more likely to suggest someone else who is in mafia then defend the stupidity or naivete or a comment. At this point in time, I would hope someone would question the list. I don't know the legitimacy of anyone's identity (except my own), so whatever is posted I do not take as certain truth. What's dangerous is this: "I swap my vote from SemiOldGuy to MrBabyHands following Ace and Ver." Mafia really try to do this. I'm not saying Caller is mafia. Just saying its a pattern that seems consistent (almost has to be) in their behavior. You caught another earlier comment that seems to confirm the same thing (someone voting for another person, and qualifying it by stating that he had deliberated upon it for a long time, which is altogether useless information that the mafia might attempt to instigate). Thoughts? | ||
Bockit
Sydney2287 Posts
On March 19 2009 08:21 Pika Chu wrote: Now there's no mention that the guy has lowered himself in order to sprint OR that he sprinted while being lowered/leaned. Eh? But while he did so the mafia lowering himself sprinted toward Chuiu and with his hands still behind his head grabbed the gun and threw it to the side Pretty clearly states that he's running while lowered. | ||
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Monoxide
Canada1190 Posts
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BWdero
Netherlands476 Posts
Outstanding clue analysis, you have me convinced. That sort of stuff is what I'm looking for in a sherrif/mayor. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7876 Posts
But. Why are people voting for mayor/sheriff choices based off day 1 clue/behaviour analysis? I know that its a good way to catch mafia on both counts, but heres the issue. Day 1 clues will have only 2-4 clues total each insanely vague, and each to a different mafia, never more clues pointing at it. Also, chuiu typically has his clues as specific words, so using an entire sentence isn't his style bases on past games. Next, we have barely any posting habits to follow on someones behaviour to have it exactly down at this point, it is just as hard to prove someone is mafia off the little posting done. I understand both areas are equally important, but for day 1, neither are truely reliable. | ||
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Pika Chu
Romania2510 Posts
On March 19 2009 08:32 Bockit wrote: Eh? Pretty clearly states that he's running while lowered. Sorry, english ain't my native language and i'm not too good at it anyway. But what i understand from that sentence is that the second time he mentiones "lowering himself" is that he's making reference to the guy who was lowering himself in the past sentence, not in any way that the guy is lowering himself in order to sprint. I'll try to explain it even better and will do so by replacing the verb lowering with wanking. One of the mafia complied and began wanking The mafia guy wasn't wanking himself to sprint towards Chuiu. It's a reference to the exact guy who was wanking in the last sentence. It's used to identify the person not describe an action. Chuiu just didn't wrote it down in the best manner, which would have been "But while he did so the mafia guy who was lowering himself, sprinted towards Chuiu". | ||
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BWdero
Netherlands476 Posts
On March 19 2009 08:39 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Ok, I have some reading to do to get fully caught up from my working into drink fest last night. But. Why are people voting for mayor/sheriff choices based off day 1 clue/behaviour analysis? I know that its a good way to catch mafia on both counts, but heres the issue. Day 1 clues will have only 2-4 clues total each insanely vague, and each to a different mafia, never more clues pointing at it. Also, chuiu typically has his clues as specific words, so using an entire sentence isn't his style bases on past games. Next, we have barely any posting habits to follow on someones behaviour to have it exactly down at this point, it is just as hard to prove someone is mafia off the little posting done. I understand both areas are equally important, but for day 1, neither are truely reliable. Incorrect, last game Chuiu used the note about nuking town as a clue pointing to Fearus. The clue was about an action the mafia made, basically telling town to fear them. On February 28 2009 13:46 Chuiu wrote: In the morning a note was delivered to the Police HQ. It read "We've killed two of your officers and if you don't find us and kill us first we will kill more. Lynch someone every day starting today. Use the experts of the town to find us before we kill you all. If you fail to lynch someone or try to evacuate the town we will set off a nuclear warhead hidden within the city killing everyone." The mafia were playing a cruel game it seemed. That morning an announcement was made that all people would have to assist the police in gathering clues and voting on the suspected to be lynched every day. Change had come to Liquidia, and the whole world was watching to see how it would respond. That entire bolded part was a clue. Meaning that Chuiu does indeed make his clues more elaborate then simple one word clues at least part of the time. | ||
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Infundibulum
United States2552 Posts
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Bockit
Sydney2287 Posts
On March 19 2009 08:46 Pika Chu wrote: Sorry, english ain't my native language and i'm not too good at it anyway. But what i understand from that sentence is that the second time he mentiones "lowering himself" is that he's making reference to the guy who was lowering himself in the past sentence, not in any way that the guy is lowering himself in order to sprint. I'll try to explain it even better and will do so by replacing the verb lowering with wanking. One of the mafia complied and began wanking The mafia guy wasn't wanking himself to sprint towards Chuiu. It's a reference to the exact guy who was wanking in the last sentence. It's used to identify the person not describe an action. Chuiu just didn't wrote it down in the best manner, which would have been "But while he did so the mafia guy who was lowering himself, sprinted towards Chuiu". You're right, "the mafia lowering himself" is a reference to person A, however the reference here is describing his activities at the same time, meaning that he is still lowered as he is sprinting toward Chuiu. Using the wanking example: He's not wanking himself to sprint, but since it doesn't say he stopped wanking and the tense is present it's safe to assume he's still wanking as he's sprinting towards Chuiu. Or in the case of the clue, the guy is still lowering as he sprints, hence leaning forward. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7876 Posts
I more mentioned it as, using an entire encounter on day 1 as a clue towards one player is insanely hard to do, the whole scenario is just weird, he could still be mafia, but I would more say chances of pika chu being mafia off an entire scenario are really low. Think of it this way, his name is pika chu and chuiu likes using clues that are more roundabout or make you think in some way. Using someone who drops down, then charges someone then grabbing someones gun is highly unlikely to be the little rat we all love to hate from smash bros or pokemon. I mean hell if you want to look at areas that are potential clues as well He reached out his hand as if to help Chuiu up, Chuiu grabbed his hand with a puzzled look on his face and began to get up We know that the mafia in question here only helped him up to stab him but, why would Chuiu take that hand knowing he was someone he had just tried to arrest? Chances are its someone who confused him, or dazed him or the like. that could link to Trancestorm, Dreamflower As for your charging theme, that pika chu is being hit up for, go look at http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=LeperKahn That looks to be a pull or ram sort of thing, it could easily have been what charged, hands behind the head could signify horns. That all took me maybe 5-10 mins to look at, and are just as insubstantial as the rest. DAY 1 is not good for clue analysis, its normally not enough to hit a mafia with, sometimes we get lucky, but its not worth the hassle of hitting a potential blue or green. | ||
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fusionsdf
Canada15390 Posts
On March 19 2009 08:39 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Ok, I have some reading to do to get fully caught up from my working into drink fest last night. But. Why are people voting for mayor/sheriff choices based off day 1 clue/behaviour analysis? I know that its a good way to catch mafia on both counts, but heres the issue. Day 1 clues will have only 2-4 clues total each insanely vague, and each to a different mafia, never more clues pointing at it. Also, chuiu typically has his clues as specific words, so using an entire sentence isn't his style bases on past games. Next, we have barely any posting habits to follow on someones behaviour to have it exactly down at this point, it is just as hard to prove someone is mafia off the little posting done. I understand both areas are equally important, but for day 1, neither are truely reliable. because its going to be impossible to organize town this time, so the goal is to put someone in mayor/sheriff we want to keep alive. clue analyzers are people we want to keep alive. The second reason, and pyrr is going to hate this, is if he all of a sudden starts giving bad analysis or stops analyzing, we will increase our suspicion of him being mafia. In other words hes analyzing clues to save his life ha ha ha | ||
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Bockit
Sydney2287 Posts
On March 19 2009 09:11 fusionsdf wrote: The second reason, and pyrr is going to hate this, is if he all of a sudden starts giving bad analysis or stops analyzing, we will increase our suspicion of him being mafia. In other words hes analyzing clues to save his life ha ha ha Hahahahahaha | ||
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fusionsdf
Canada15390 Posts
On March 19 2009 06:08 MasterOfChaos wrote: I don't find the pikachu clue analysis very convincing as I can't relate a single one of your clues to pikachu. For example I see nothing about a shockwave on the posted card, and how sprinting is related to pokemon is simply beyond me. But that might be because I'm not familiar with pokemon. Pikachu is known for two moves: shockwave  aralyzes the enemy and Quick Attack (Especially in the anime): an attack that strikes first. Quick attack is always depicted as lowering yourself to the grounds and running so fast the lines appear so they are both valid. I wouldn't say they are guaranteed or even likely, but its reasonable enough for a first day. If we have to lynch someone on the first day, then it makes sense to lynch the person with the most clues against them, even if the clues aren't 100%. So if pikachu doesnt want to die, he should do his own clue analysis, and find a better connection. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7876 Posts
On March 19 2009 09:11 fusionsdf wrote: because its going to be impossible to organize town this time, so the goal is to put someone in mayor/sheriff we want to keep alive. clue analyzers are people we want to keep alive. The second reason, and pyrr is going to hate this, is if he all of a sudden starts giving bad analysis or stops analyzing, we will increase our suspicion of him being mafia. In other words hes analyzing clues to save his life ha ha ha Hes going into way to much detail to push the clue through though, look at how many videos he used to prove his point, if you need like 4-5 videos to prove it, its trying to force something down ones throat. Anyone who has played mafia has knows clue analysis is super weak first day, and behaviour analysis is easier for mafia to do to pick out blues first day. We need to elect someone who will try to get the town organized and who can analyze but not be the center of the town. As neither sheriff or mayor can be town rallying point. | ||
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Bockit
Sydney2287 Posts
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
On March 19 2009 09:11 fusionsdf wrote: because its going to be impossible to organize town this time, so the goal is to put someone in mayor/sheriff we want to keep alive. clue analyzers are people we want to keep alive. The second reason, and pyrr is going to hate this, is if he all of a sudden starts giving bad analysis or stops analyzing, we will increase our suspicion of him being mafia. In other words hes analyzing clues to save his life ha ha ha Oh fuck lol  tbh I already started running for mayor partly because I thought it looked weird that someone voted for me when I wasn't even running (another part was that I want to not be lazy and I want to try to exercise my leadership muscles). | ||
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fusionsdf
Canada15390 Posts
At least if we kill of pikachu now, we know any future clues that might point to him won't and we get rid of what is right now our prime suspect. Yeah I've acknowledged that the case is really shaky; I think its more likely that pikachu is innocent than he is guilty...but the odds of pikachu being mafia are still greater than every other person in the game right now. And thats why he should be lynched. | ||
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7876 Posts
On March 19 2009 09:24 Bockit wrote: Just a note about the whole Pika Chu//Pikachu situation, if you remember from Game 2 crazie-penguin was literally a penguin in all the stories, and it was the subtle things like not being able to speak, having 'wings' instead of hands that were what gave it away. Much like grabbing a gun with a tail and running close to the ground match the actions of a character with the body of a pikachu. but having his hands behind his head to indicate the tail isn't very likely, if they were behind his back maybe | ||
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Bockit
Sydney2287 Posts
On March 19 2009 09:19 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Hes going into way to much detail to push the clue through though, look at how many videos he used to prove his point, if you need like 4-5 videos to prove it, its trying to force something down ones throat. Anyone who has played mafia has knows clue analysis is super weak first day, and behaviour analysis is easier for mafia to do to pick out blues first day. We need to elect someone who will try to get the town organized and who can analyze but not be the center of the town. As neither sheriff or mayor can be town rallying point. He didn't need the videos to prove the point, the points he was trying to prove were clear if you had played enough SSB or were familiar with Pikachu. They were there for people who weren't so familiar, he even proved through Chuiu's own posts the likelihood that Chuiu was aware of these things. All this said, I'm not a fan of making Pyrr sheriff/mayor because I think just because someone can do clue analysis that they should be mayor is faulty. I do however agree with the work he's done so far (In the sense that I think it's likely to be correct, or is at least of decent quality). | ||
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