|
This is all I got so far as possible suspects. Bare in mind, I tried to completely disregard everything MTF and Plexa have brought up as far as information/suspects, because I find it good to take a fresh look at things. That being said, I still have doubts for the one possible suspect, because there are a few things that don't quite fit.
Fanatacist as Joe
Pros
-has thumbs up pic in his profile
-From wiki:
Fanaticism is an emotion of being filled with excessive, uncritical zeal, particularly for an extreme religious or political cause, or with an obsessive enthusiasm for a pastime or hobby.
According to philosopher George Santayana, "Fanaticism consists in redoubling your effort when you have forgotten your aim"[1]; according to Winston Churchill, "A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject". Very strict standards and little tolerance.
The difference between a fan and a fanatic is that while both have an overwhelming liking or interest in a given subject, behaviour of a fanatic will be viewed as violating prevailing social norms, while that of a fan will not violate those norms (although is usually considered unusual).[2]
A fanatic differs from a crank in that the latter term is typically associated with a position or opinion which is so far from the norm as to appear ludicrous and/or provably wrong, while the subject of the fanatic's obsession may well be "normal", with only the scale of involvement being abnormally disproportionate.
-Compare that to the things Joe says and does
"Stop him! You heard Eddie, either you're with us or you're permanently not, make your choice now!"
"Is this your friend?" LucasWoJ asked as he pointed to Sidewinder, lying next to a pool of vomit. "Yeah thats him alright, always drinking a little too much" said Joe as he pulled Sidewinder into the back of the car with the help of LucasWoJ. "Well thanks for the help, but I'm afraid my friend was supposed to give you something" said Joe as he turned to face LucasWoj. He was confused in his response and didn't really want anything to do with the two anymore so he decided to be short and walk back toward his van. But Joe pulled out a gun and shot LucasWoJ dead saying "he was supposed to kill you".
-and
Joe gave Mr. Blue a thumbs up for effort as he grabbed and held onto aZnvaLiaNce from behind
Joe has been incredibly supportive of his cause (of course the mafia would be right?), but to the point where he is picking up the slack of his teammates to complete the missions.
Cons
-I could find nothing from his "Public Profile" that really ties him into the game
-He might already be cleared by "X" list... (damn near impossible to search for the lists etc... hopefully someone can help me out here)
Lynching Patterns
-Day 2 Mandalor
-Day 3 bumatlarge, Ghar (2)
-Day 4 Abstain
-Day 5 Missed Vote as evident by....
On April 12 2008 23:23 fanatacist wrote:
Oops.
-Day 6 No Vote
-Day 7 L, Ulszz (2)
-Conclusion
I can't really determine if he's a concrete suspect al la Plexa, MTF and the now deceased fusionsdf, but I still think it's good to throw something new out there. Criticisms are welcome.
|
Germany2896 Posts
at least this time I voted for the guilty of the two. Last time was a bit emberassing, voting for the innocent and not for the guilty^^
|
Now with L gone, the remaining power roles are probably legit. So far, so good.
If ulszz was innocent, we need a new candidate for Mr.Blue. I found the "noob" route quite convincing, but apparently it wasn't. One of the reasons we killed ulszz so soon was because he was on this list of people (1 mafia among them):
ulszz
araav <--- proved innocent by a detective after the "hacking" incident. Could Ace confirm?
rts)night[mare
infundibilum
ahrara
qrs
nemy
Now who of these could be the bad guy? We have some evidence against NemY and NightMare, but nothing strong. Should we concentrate on other suspects for now?
|
On April 25 2008 16:50 nemY wrote:
-He might already be cleared by "X" list... (damn near impossible to search for the lists etc... hopefully someone can help me out here)
.
Fusion has them all in his blog; I've stolen the ones with Mafia still in them and put them in mine as well.
As for your suspect...It's about as strong as a link as I could tie to Unforgiven. But, I don't really feel that strongly that either of them is a good candidate for Joe. At the moment, I don't believe we really have one. Initiative is appreciated, though.
As for the lists...
Detective Lists:
+ Show Spoiler [Mandalor - 58 votes] +01-ShaLLoW[baY] 02-SoMuchBetter 03-Eti307 05- Caller { Bodyguard } 06-clazziquai 11-ieatkids5 15- Hittegods { Detective } 17-randombum { Pardoner } 21-Alethios 23- Falcynn25- Empyrean { Detective } 26- Fishball { Bodyguard } 27-nemY 28-ZBiR 30- JeeJee31-Energies 34-RtS)Night[Mare 36-Unforgiven_ve 39-Romance_us 42-SonuvBob 43-NatsuTerran 48-qrs 49- GranDim50-Artanis[Xp] 52-iNfuNdiBuLuM 53- Ace { Mayor } 56-Camlito 58-Lysithea 59-fanatacist 60-SoleSteeler 61- French_Toast67-0cz3c 68- New104 { Detective } 69- LucasWoJ { Paramedic } 71-GeneralStan 75- bumatlarge77- BloodyC0bbler { Vigilante } 78-BWdero 80- Siefu82-Ninja4ever. 85-ahrara_ 87-Pangolin 88-Naib 89-butidigress 90- ~OpZ~91-Scorch 92-Jimtudor 94- unsoundlogic97-suresh0t 98- decafchicken { Jack } 103-SpiritoftheTuna 109- MidnightGladius114-zeks 116-Last Romantic 118- Plexa122- Showtime!124- Lenwe { Bodyguard } 125- Kau127- LOut of these 58 36 (not counting confirmed/dead) people, 9 of them are Mafia.
+ Show Spoiler [Showtime! - 8 votes] +
* denotes being on the Mandalor list as well.
8-CDRdude
19-ulszz
27-*nemY(2)
34-*RtS)Night[Mare(2)
48-*qrs(2)
51-araav(2)
52-*iNfuNdiBuLuM(2)
85-*ahrara_(2)
Out of these 7 people, 1 of them is Mafia. Note that those in the Mandalor list as well have a much more significant chance statistically of being Mafia than those who are not.
Confirmed Innocents by Lists:
+ Show Spoiler +
14-imDerek
24-Alventenie
45. smurfingchobo
46-aZnvaLiaNce
49. GranDim
54. MTF
66-fusionsdf
90-~OpZ~
94. unsoundlogic
115-useLess
Summation: 13 Mafia are left, 9 (more likely) or 10 of which are in lists. 70 townies left alive, 7 of which are still alive and confirmed townies by lists.
Those Not Confirmed Innocent:
+ Show Spoiler +
1. ShaLLoW[baY]
2. SoMuchBetter
3. Eti307
4. HotZhot
6. clazziquai
7. Dr.Dragoon
8. CDRdude
9. So no fek
10. Fen
11. ieatkids5
12. Wizard
16. Puosu
17. randombum (Pardoner)
21. Alethios
22. infinity21
24. Alventenie
27. nemY
28. ZBiR
29. SiZ.FaNtAsY
31. Energies
33. Amber[LighT]
34. RtS)Night[Mare
35. Vharox
36. Unforgiven_ve
37. fgsvsd
38. KF91
39. Romance_us
40. MasterOfChaos
41. LTT
42. SonuvBob
43. NatsuTerran
44. str
47. Kuja900
48. qrs
50. Artanis[Xp]
51. araav
52. iNfuNdiBuLuM
57. LoStYouRSkiLLS
58. Lysithea
59. fanatacist
60. SoleSteeler
63. HeRoS)Pink
64. KorvspaD
67. 0cz3c
70. Bockit
71. GeneralStan
72. Ziel
73. Hollander
74. Supah
76. jtan
78. BWdero
79. AcrossFiveJulys
82. Ninja4ever.
85. ahrara_
87. Pangolin
88. Naib
89. butidigress
91. Scorch
92. Jimtudor
93. spoinka
97. suresh0t
99. DamageControL
100. omfghi2u2
101. RowdierBob
103. SpiritoftheTuna
104. AmorVincitOmnia
105. Wysp
106. BuGzlToOnl
107. GrayArea
113. DTDominion
114. zeks
116. Last Romantic
130. rpf
Of those suspects we have that are not in the Mandalor list, I only feel strongly about lynching one, being DamageControl. However, lynching him at this stage would be unwise, as killing him only eliminates one of four possible left hiding in a pool of 70+, whereas getting a Mafia or even a townie from the other lists brings our chances of finding another Mafia up more.
So, next day phase, I propose the lynching of any of the following:
Clazziquai - Has been a suspect for awhile, and would be the third or fourth mafia to tie into randombum if he does turn up red.
0cz3c - Same as above.
ieatkids5 - Strongly feel that he is Mr. White.
Ninja4ever. - Strongly feel that he is Mr. Blonde.
|
On April 25 2008 18:13 Scorch wrote:
Now with L gone, the remaining power roles are probably legit. So far, so good.
If ulszz was innocent, we need a new candidate for Mr.Blue. I found the "noob" route quite convincing, but apparently it wasn't. One of the reasons we killed ulszz so soon was because he was on this list of people (1 mafia among them):
ulszz
araav <--- proved innocent by a detective after the "hacking" incident. Could Ace confirm?
rts)night[mare
infundibilum
ahrara
qrs
nemy
Now who of these could be the bad guy? We have some evidence against NemY and NightMare, but nothing strong. Should we concentrate on other suspects for now?
If we can come up with someone strong on that list, we should definitely gun for them. Most of them are also on the Mandalor list as well, so taking them out not only gives us more confirmed innocents (many of which are, again, on the Mandalor list), but removes another Mafia from the Mandalor list as well.
O, and I'd just like to say...Well played, L. You had me running circles there near the end! I think I was the only person among us cluefinders who wasn't entirely convinced of your guilt anymore after you posted about Light, but hey, getting one of us addled is better than any of the other Mafia ever did. :p
|
On April 25 2008 18:13 Scorch wrote:
Now with L gone, the remaining power roles are probably legit. So far, so good.
If ulszz was innocent, we need a new candidate for Mr.Blue. I found the "noob" route quite convincing, but apparently it wasn't. One of the reasons we killed ulszz so soon was because he was on this list of people (1 mafia among them):
ulszz
araav <--- proved innocent by a detective after the "hacking" incident. Could Ace confirm?
rts)night[mare
infundibilum
ahrara
qrs
nemy
Now who of these could be the bad guy? We have some evidence against NemY and NightMare, but nothing strong. Should we concentrate on other suspects for now?
lol i remember someone saying your mr.blue because your song is a RATM song about chainsaws.
:D
|
On April 25 2008 19:21 Camlito wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2008 18:13 Scorch wrote:
Now with L gone, the remaining power roles are probably legit. So far, so good.
If ulszz was innocent, we need a new candidate for Mr.Blue. I found the "noob" route quite convincing, but apparently it wasn't. One of the reasons we killed ulszz so soon was because he was on this list of people (1 mafia among them):
ulszz
araav <--- proved innocent by a detective after the "hacking" incident. Could Ace confirm?
rts)night[mare
infundibilum
ahrara
qrs
nemy
Now who of these could be the bad guy? We have some evidence against NemY and NightMare, but nothing strong. Should we concentrate on other suspects for now? lol i remember someone saying your mr.blue because your song is a RATM song about chainsaws. :D
Not quite what I said... >.>
But for what it's worth, I really don't think Scorch is mafia. :p
As an aside, even though I know he probably wants to murder me (: x) for putting him back out there again, I think nemY is our strongest suspect from the Showtime! list. Until we get stronger clues linking to him or someone else in the list, I think we should focus on those we suspect inside the Mandalor list, though.
|
Ninja4ever should get lynched next
|
France231 Posts
sur.
I can't blame you because of the proof against me are convincing.
So i'll blame you when i'll turn green.
|
Known Mafia Voting Patterns:
+ Show Spoiler [List] +
L:
Mayoral vote: Randombum
Day 2: Mandalor
Day 3: Wurm, no second vote.
Day 4: TranceStorm
Day 5: Evilmonkey and Siefu
Day 6: Nemy (for giggles)
Crazie-Penguin:
Mayoral Vote: Randombum
Day 2: Abstain
Day 3: Abstain
Day 4: Abstain
Day 5: No vote.
Day 6: L, died during this vote.
BlindAlbino:
Mayoral vote: Randombum *switched to near the end*
Day 2: str
Day 3: str
Day 4: araav
Day 5: Evilmonkey and Siefu
Mandalor:
Mayoral vote: Ace
Day 2: Abstain, died during this vote.
Queasy:
Mayoral vote: Randombum *switched to near the end*
Day 2: No vote.
Day 3: No vote.
Day 4: No vote, died this cycle.
d.arkive:
Mayoral vote: Last Romantic
Day 2: No vote.
Day 3: Bumatlarge, no second vote.
Day 4: No vote.
Day 5: Died this cycle.
Evilmonkey:
Mayoral vote: No vote.
Day 2: Ghar
Day 3: Ace, and abstain.
Day 4: Abstain
Day 5: Died this cycle.
Known Mafia Total:
+ Show Spoiler [List] +
Mayoral vote:
Randombum - 4
Ace - 1
Last Romantic - 1
No vote - 1
Day 2:
Abstain or no vote - 4
Mandalor - 1 (9 others for sure)
Ghar - 1
str - 1
Day 3:
Abstain or no vote - 2
Wurm - 1
Ace - 1
Bumatlarge - 1
str - 1
Day 4:
Abstain or no vote - 4
TranceStorm - 1
araav - 1
Day 5:
No vote - 2
Evilmonkey/Siefu - 2
Day 6:
L - 1
Nemy - 1
Just wanted to renew this with L's info.
If Clazzi/0cz3c come up Mafia, I think we need to look realllly hard in Randombum's direction.
|
Voting patterns of the four I listed as prime suspects for lynching:
Ninja4ever.:
Mayoral vote: Randombum
Day 2: Mandalor
Day 3: Wurm, no second vote.
Day 4: No vote.
Day 5: No vote.
Day 6: No vote.
0cz3c:
Mayoral vote: Randombum
Day 2: Mandalor
Day 3: Ghar, no second vote.
Day 4: No vote.
Day 5: No vote.
Day 6: No vote.
Clazziquai:
Mayoral vote: Randombum
Day 2: Mandalor
Day 3: Wurm, no second vote.
Day 4: No vote.
Day 5: No vote.
Day 6: L
ieatkids5:
Mayoral vote: No vote.
Day 2: Mandalor
Day 3: Ghar, no second vote.
Day 4: Abstain.
Day 5: Evilmonkey and Siefu.
Day 6: Crazie-Penguin
|
Aotearoa39261 Posts
i feel the fanatacist connection is fairly decent, worth noting as our primary suspect for Joe at this stage atleast
|
Germany2896 Posts
I still suspect jtan as Mr. blue
|
O, haha, I just realized I could do this. Alright, the following is a list of people who did not vote on Mandalor on Day 2, are not confirmed innocent, and are still living.
People Not On Mandalor List:
+ Show Spoiler +
HotZhot
Dr.Dragoon
CDRdude
So no fek
Fen
Wizard
imDerek
Puosu
infinity21
Alventenie
SiZ.Fantasy
Amber[Light]
Vharox
fgsvsd
KF91
MasterOfChaos
LTT
str
Kuja900
araav
More_Minerals
LostYourSkills
Heros)Pink
Korvspad
Bockit
Ziel
Hollander
Supah
jtan
AcrossFiveJulys
Spoinka
DamageControl
omfghi2u2
RowdierBob
AmorVincitOmnia
Wysp
Bugzltoonl
GrayArea
DTDominion
rpf
Total: 40 people, 3 or 4 (depending on the Showtime! list results) mafia.
So, rough odds of hitting Mafia by list (I hate math, so no dead-on percentages here):
Mandalor List:
36 suspects, 9 mafia = 1/4 ratio
Showtime! List:
7 suspects, 1 mafia = 1/7 ratio
*Personal note: I feel it is unlikely araav or CDRdude are mafia due to all the other suspects also being on the Mandalor list. Taking this into account, I feel the ratio is really 1/5.
Others:
40 suspects, 3 or 4 mafia = Close to 1/13 ratio or 1/10 ratio.
Edit: Overlooked one person for the Others list.
|
As a general side-note, we now have EVERYBODY who is playing and isn't dead/innocent in a list, whether Mandalor, Showtime!, or Non-Mandalor.
This means, no matter who Mafia kills from now on, they up our chances of finding them systematically. 
|
Sydney2287 Posts
On April 25 2008 21:36 MTF wrote:As a general side-note, we now have EVERYBODY who is playing and isn't dead/innocent in a list, whether Mandalor, Showtime!, or Non-Mandalor. This means, no matter who Mafia kills from now on, they up our chances of finding them systematically.
Heh.. I hate to burst your bubble but that is something that happens regardless of lists 
ie. with mafia killing people, they increase the % of townies that are mafia, because more innocents are dying than mafia.
That aside, I'm loving the work you guys are putting in 
|
On April 25 2008 21:44 Bockit wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2008 21:36 MTF wrote:As a general side-note, we now have EVERYBODY who is playing and isn't dead/innocent in a list, whether Mandalor, Showtime!, or Non-Mandalor. This means, no matter who Mafia kills from now on, they up our chances of finding them systematically. Heh.. I hate to burst your bubble but that is something that happens regardless of lists ie. with mafia killing people, they increase the % of townies that are mafia, because more innocents are dying than mafia. That aside, I'm loving the work you guys are putting in
O, I'm well aware. :p
It's just now it's all concentrated into three separate pools, so mafia vs innocents ratio doesn't just rise: it rises in specific places no matter where they strike.
|
Aotearoa39261 Posts
i think i found something potentially game breaking o.O but we'll see how it goes...
but it does say that the following are innocent;
Pangolin
Naib
BWdero
SoleSteeler
Last Romantic
Ahrara
0cz7c
which has two suspects i was sure were mafia =/
|
On April 25 2008 19:27 MTF wrote:
But for what it's worth, I really don't think Scorch is mafia. :p
Ha! There we have it! :D
Do you guys agree that Eddie, as the mafia's leader, has the saboteur rule? If so, is it worth taking risks in lynching Eddie suspects vs lynching relatively certain vanilla mafia candidates?
|
On April 25 2008 22:07 Scorch wrote:Show nested quote +On April 25 2008 19:27 MTF wrote:
But for what it's worth, I really don't think Scorch is mafia. :p Ha! There we have it! :D Do you guys agree that Eddie, as the mafia's leader, has the saboteur rule? If so, is it worth taking risks in lynching Eddie suspects vs lynching relatively certain vanilla mafia candidates?
I'm more inclined to believe that it is random. That may be a wrong, but 'since we don't know for sure, I don't think it'd be a good idea for us to gun for a specific character when we have stronger suspects.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
