EPTOn May 31 2023 03:23 marvellosity wrote:
Right, this is going to be my last try. I am going to use my last big post as the basis for this one, below. It looks like I am 99% going to be lynched today, and the frustrating thing about that is ultimately if a townie gets lynched, it's on them for not being able to show the rest of town that they are town. So, sad times for me but I am at peace with it. What I'm still not at peace with is rayn falling off his townread on me. I never fell off my townread on him (he quoted a post in his 'vomit' goodbye post where it looks like I was calling him mafia because he started being suspicious of me - that wasn't the case at all, which I think should have been relatively clear by my terming it 'mega duped' by rayn - i.e. mega duped = i was hard townreading him. I just couldn't understand why when we'd been strong townreading each other that he'd stop. Because I got really convinced that DP was mafia? That seemed like a strange reason to stop hard townreading me).
It also means I've probably misplayed today badly as well, objectively the right thing to do was probably to lynch LS and I am being screamed at in the observer chat why I didn't do that. Well, unfortunately I did not do that, and I am way too far in to want to do that now (and probably couldn't even if I wanted to). So alas, here we are...
Most of all the above is still right as far as I am concerned. Some slight differences:
LightningStrike is more likely to be mafia than what I posted there, the sheep on me was real bad (would still take it)
Alakaslam I think is a bit less likely to be town based on his posts today. I also thought more about the reasoning that both rayn and I gave, and the plausible alternative is that a mafia-Slam changed votes from MZ to Vivax because why the fuck not? I still think this is the less likely version, because at the time Vivax was lynched, mafia did not know a vigilante would shoot and flip MZ. Meaning Slam didn't know it would look okay on him that he made the switch to Vivax.
I know and understand that part of the reason rayn was suspicious of me, and probably the rest of you too, was that I didn't talk much about LS day 2. And voted VE late or something like that. The whole of D2 (Friday evening and all of Saturday) was just bad timing for me irl-wise, there's nothing more to it than that. From my perspective, I thought I had identified a mafia (DP), and we were merrily lynching VE (mafia), there did not seem to be much reason to talk about LS, he wasn't running away. I'm not going to say anything else in my defence.
DarthPunk
Somewhere today he posted a whole bunch of rayn posts to show that I am supposed to be mafia (not very good at making a proper case against me himself). I just really want town to remember that it wasn't clear like that for rayn at the time he died either:
Obviously what I am including here is that rayn is betting that I am more likely mafia, well fine. But it's certainly not that he died giving DP a big town-read either. And, from my own perspective, I have one big advantage that rayn does not have, which is I know my own alignment.
Imagine me making that post that rayn made (in fact many of our reads are fairly similar). rayn came down to the conclusion that it was between me, LS, and DP. Now, if I am making that post myself - let's say all the other reads are the same, Slam, DMB, etc etc. I would be left with 3 players the mafia could be between - rayn, LS, and DP. Except I strongly believed all game that rayn was town. Which brings the 3 options that rayn gives down to 2 options, DP and LS. It shouldn't be surprising that I am hard scumreading DP then!
I was going to write a lot more about DP in this post, but it turns out I don't want to. I tried my best but I lost a lot of confidence. Either I am right on DP and no-one believes me and I am in an oasis on my own. Or I am very wrong and I'm still on my own. Because maybe I can come up with alternative explanations for some of what he's done. Maybe somehow he can have inherent guilt as town. I still find it hard to believe for this post:
This was his original reaction when I started pointing things out:
Like he is literally admitting my scumread on him is valid.
But then I look at some other posts and they're not so bad again. So never mind
Right, this is going to be my last try. I am going to use my last big post as the basis for this one, below. It looks like I am 99% going to be lynched today, and the frustrating thing about that is ultimately if a townie gets lynched, it's on them for not being able to show the rest of town that they are town. So, sad times for me but I am at peace with it. What I'm still not at peace with is rayn falling off his townread on me. I never fell off my townread on him (he quoted a post in his 'vomit' goodbye post where it looks like I was calling him mafia because he started being suspicious of me - that wasn't the case at all, which I think should have been relatively clear by my terming it 'mega duped' by rayn - i.e. mega duped = i was hard townreading him. I just couldn't understand why when we'd been strong townreading each other that he'd stop. Because I got really convinced that DP was mafia? That seemed like a strange reason to stop hard townreading me).
It also means I've probably misplayed today badly as well, objectively the right thing to do was probably to lynch LS and I am being screamed at in the observer chat why I didn't do that. Well, unfortunately I did not do that, and I am way too far in to want to do that now (and probably couldn't even if I wanted to). So alas, here we are...
Most of all the above is still right as far as I am concerned. Some slight differences:
LightningStrike is more likely to be mafia than what I posted there, the sheep on me was real bad (would still take it
)Alakaslam I think is a bit less likely to be town based on his posts today. I also thought more about the reasoning that both rayn and I gave, and the plausible alternative is that a mafia-Slam changed votes from MZ to Vivax because why the fuck not? I still think this is the less likely version, because at the time Vivax was lynched, mafia did not know a vigilante would shoot and flip MZ. Meaning Slam didn't know it would look okay on him that he made the switch to Vivax.
I know and understand that part of the reason rayn was suspicious of me, and probably the rest of you too, was that I didn't talk much about LS day 2. And voted VE late or something like that. The whole of D2 (Friday evening and all of Saturday) was just bad timing for me irl-wise, there's nothing more to it than that. From my perspective, I thought I had identified a mafia (DP), and we were merrily lynching VE (mafia), there did not seem to be much reason to talk about LS, he wasn't running away. I'm not going to say anything else in my defence.
DarthPunk
Somewhere today he posted a whole bunch of rayn posts to show that I am supposed to be mafia (not very good at making a proper case against me himself). I just really want town to remember that it wasn't clear like that for rayn at the time he died either:
Obviously what I am including here is that rayn is betting that I am more likely mafia, well fine. But it's certainly not that he died giving DP a big town-read either. And, from my own perspective, I have one big advantage that rayn does not have, which is I know my own alignment.
Imagine me making that post that rayn made (in fact many of our reads are fairly similar). rayn came down to the conclusion that it was between me, LS, and DP. Now, if I am making that post myself - let's say all the other reads are the same, Slam, DMB, etc etc. I would be left with 3 players the mafia could be between - rayn, LS, and DP. Except I strongly believed all game that rayn was town. Which brings the 3 options that rayn gives down to 2 options, DP and LS. It shouldn't be surprising that I am hard scumreading DP then!
I was going to write a lot more about DP in this post, but it turns out I don't want to. I tried my best but I lost a lot of confidence. Either I am right on DP and no-one believes me and I am in an oasis on my own. Or I am very wrong and I'm still on my own. Because maybe I can come up with alternative explanations for some of what he's done. Maybe somehow he can have inherent guilt as town. I still find it hard to believe for this post:
This was his original reaction when I started pointing things out:
Like he is literally admitting my scumread on him is valid.
But then I look at some other posts and they're not so bad again. So never mind
