TL Endures Mafia - Page 136

On May 31 2023 02:39 marvellosity wrote:
I just clicked on my filter in that game and I basically didn't play at all, there's no comparison. I probably made the appeal to emotion because I literally wasn't playing the game. No-one can argue I haven't played this one...

On May 29 2023 23:33 marvellosity wrote:
My final thoughts

So, as I've already talked about, what rayn started doing towards me just demoralised me massively, and my last vote on DP I did genuinely intend to be my last post of the game. But I still want town to win, so these are my thoughts that you can take with you into day 4. After you lynch me you will need to lynch correctly twice in a row or mafia wins. Some stuff I am pretty sure about, some I'm not.

die_meatbaby is town. Or at least if she is not town, the game is massively invalid in my eyes due to the ridiculous amount of setup nonsense that went on. My other supporting evidence is VE's post regarding this below.



VE is plenty good at faking emotion and all that sort of stuff as mafia. But this is not fake - this is a mafia-VE frustrated that the antics around that playerslot have essentially confirmed DMB as town. Do not lynch her, ever.

Alakaslam I also think is town. Something that rayn pointed out is that MZ's goodbye post was actually kind of weak, so why did people believe it? One theory is that mafia know it's true and so have some sort of reaction to it. This is possible. But why would a mafia-Slam, knowing that both lynches on D1 are town, even need to engage with it? Why does a mafia-Slam, who is apparently hard-town reading marv (yes I've confirmed towned myself just to be gratuitous) paint a massive target on his back for going against his townreads and voting Vivax, when he could have just stayed on MZ no questions asked? It doesn't make much sense to me.

After I wrote this I went back to read rayn's post, as I remembered he said Slam was town and I couldn't remember why. Turns out it's exactly the same reason, so if we've both come to that conclusion it's a fair stab that Slam is town.

[yellow]Chez[yellow]inu - I have a hunch this guy is town, don't wanna talk about it really.

TankTopTiger



Frankly I think these 2 posts are a bit outrageous to make if you are mafia (and tbh probably shouldn't be asking them in the thread if you're town). So for this reason alone he should be town.
When I think about his gameplay it's basically a tunnel on me - well, fine. There's 2 options here:
1. him and DP are working completely in tandem as a mafia pair. Sounds crazy but not impossible.
2. DP has pocketed TTT and DP is riding off TTT's fervour. This is what I think is most likely.

This could be so true as well

LightningStrike
I really have nothing further to add than what rayn said, so I'm just gonna quote it.

Just as an aside, if you are town and voting me you are ignoring the bolded bit. Although I would also tell you to ignore it, so I'm not actually trying to make much of a point here

DarthPunk
He is always mafia. I've talked about why before, but for the sake of completeness, I will summarise it here again. Firstly, he too easily gave out townreads for quite a portion of the game. This is a mistake I desperately have to try not to fall into every time I play scum, and I don't always succeed. The weird early hard townread of die_meatbaby, when the rest of the townies were a lot more cautious, or actively calling dmb mafia (e.g. Koshi). The point (night 1 I think? I forget slightly) where he posted that he simply had "too many townreads" at a point I had 2 good townreads (Koshi and rayn). This is not a natural way for a townie to be thinking about the game, townies are a paranoid people. Readers, if you are town, ask yourself if you ever had too many townreads in this game.
Secondly, the turnaround on VE. DP made a really long post with about 20 quotes from VE and came to the conclusion that VE was most likely town. rayn makes a comment about VE's emotion (or lack of) and DP, after thinking so hard about VE's alignment, just flops the other way. Readers, if you are town - how easy is it for you to change your mind when you have just spent a lot of time thinking about someone's alignment?
Also, please read again the passage of play where I start calling DP mafia. He was not calling me mafia before that. He tells me he knew my scumread on him was coming - he knew he'd misplayed. Tell you what, if I'm town in DP's position there, as far as I'm concerned I've just listened to a very likely townie (rayn) and voted for mafia (VE). I'd be feeling nervous (about the lynch to come) but happy. I wouldn't be feeling guilty - "I knew this read on me was coming". The inherent guilt of being mafia. Then the way he starts calling me mafia - "FWIW I think marv could be mafia". Of course he just happens to wait until I have called him mafia, and then very casually says "FWIW".

None of anything of what DP has done is how a townie thinks. Lynch him with fire

I will not defend myself any further - this is my position. I will take no questions from DP because he is mafia. TTT - if you are just going to take the position that I am mafia spewing bs, fine. But assuming you are town, please go back, read my thoughts here again as if they are legitimately townie, and think about them. If you don't believe me, fine. Lynch me and then come back to this post.

On May 29 2023 23:33 marvellosity wrote:
My final thoughts

So, as I've already talked about, what rayn started doing towards me just demoralised me massively, and my last vote on DP I did genuinely intend to be my last post of the game. But I still want town to win, so these are my thoughts that you can take with you into day 4. After you lynch me you will need to lynch correctly twice in a row or mafia wins. Some stuff I am pretty sure about, some I'm not.

die_meatbaby is town. Or at least if she is not town, the game is massively invalid in my eyes due to the ridiculous amount of setup nonsense that went on. My other supporting evidence is VE's post regarding this below.



VE is plenty good at faking emotion and all that sort of stuff as mafia. But this is not fake - this is a mafia-VE frustrated that the antics around that playerslot have essentially confirmed DMB as town. Do not lynch her, ever.

Alakaslam I also think is town. Something that rayn pointed out is that MZ's goodbye post was actually kind of weak, so why did people believe it? One theory is that mafia know it's true and so have some sort of reaction to it. This is possible. But why would a mafia-Slam, knowing that both lynches on D1 are town, even need to engage with it? Why does a mafia-Slam, who is apparently hard-town reading marv (yes I've confirmed towned myself just to be gratuitous) paint a massive target on his back for going against his townreads and voting Vivax, when he could have just stayed on MZ no questions asked? It doesn't make much sense to me.

After I wrote this I went back to read rayn's post, as I remembered he said Slam was town and I couldn't remember why. Turns out it's exactly the same reason, so if we've both come to that conclusion it's a fair stab that Slam is town.

Chezinu - I have a hunch this guy is town, don't wanna talk about it really.

TankTopTiger



Frankly I think these 2 posts are a bit outrageous to make if you are mafia (and tbh probably shouldn't be asking them in the thread if you're town). So for this reason alone he should be town.
When I think about his gameplay it's basically a tunnel on me - well, fine. There's 2 options here:
1. him and DP are working completely in tandem as a mafia pair. Sounds crazy but not impossible.
2. DP has pocketed TTT and DP is riding off TTT's fervour. This is what I think is most likely.

LightningStrike
I really have nothing further to add than what rayn said, so I'm just gonna quote it.

Just as an aside, if you are town and voting me you are ignoring the bolded bit. Although I would also tell you to ignore it, so I'm not actually trying to make much of a point here

DarthPunk
He is always mafia. I've talked about why before, but for the sake of completeness, I will summarise it here again. Firstly, he too easily gave out townreads for quite a portion of the game. This is a mistake I desperately have to try not to fall into every time I play scum, and I don't always succeed. The weird early hard townread of die_meatbaby, when the rest of the townies were a lot more cautious, or actively calling dmb mafia (e.g. Koshi). The point (night 1 I think? I forget slightly) where he posted that he simply had "too many townreads" at a point I had 2 good townreads (Koshi and rayn). This is not a natural way for a townie to be thinking about the game, townies are a paranoid people. Readers, if you are town, ask yourself if you ever had too many townreads in this game.
Secondly, the turnaround on VE. DP made a really long post with about 20 quotes from VE and came to the conclusion that VE was most likely town. rayn makes a comment about VE's emotion (or lack of) and DP, after thinking so hard about VE's alignment, just flops the other way. Readers, if you are town - how easy is it for you to change your mind when you have just spent a lot of time thinking about someone's alignment?
Also, please read again the passage of play where I start calling DP mafia. He was not calling me mafia before that. He tells me he knew my scumread on him was coming - he knew he'd misplayed. Tell you what, if I'm town in DP's position there, as far as I'm concerned I've just listened to a very likely townie (rayn) and voted for mafia (VE). I'd be feeling nervous (about the lynch to come) but happy. I wouldn't be feeling guilty - "I knew this read on me was coming". The inherent guilt of being mafia. Then the way he starts calling me mafia - "FWIW I think marv could be mafia". Of course he just happens to wait until I have called him mafia, and then very casually says "FWIW".

None of anything of what DP has done is how a townie thinks. Lynch him with fire

I will not defend myself any further - this is my position. I will take no questions from DP because he is mafia. TTT - if you are just going to take the position that I am mafia spewing bs, fine. But assuming you are town, please go back, read my thoughts here again as if they are legitimately townie, and think about them. If you don't believe me, fine. Lynch me and then come back to this post.

On May 29 2023 10:36 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I don't know. PoE says LS is mafia and after that occam's razor says one of marv or DP is mafia. Don't get me wrong, just if i analyse both of them individually they look town, but there HAS TO BE third mafia in this game. Gun to head i would say marv over DP, but i am really not sure.

On May 28 2023 07:48 DarthPunk wrote:
FWIW I actually do think Marv could be mafia.

On May 28 2023 07:26 DarthPunk wrote:


Yeah, I knew you would say this. lol.

On May 28 2023 07:27 DarthPunk wrote:


im not but i understand why you could think so. I just thought about his emotion deeper than on a surface level, once rayn brought it up.

On May 31 2023 03:23 marvellosity wrote:
Right, this is going to be my last try. I am going to use my last big post as the basis for this one, below. It looks like I am 99% going to be lynched today, and the frustrating thing about that is ultimately if a townie gets lynched, it's on them for not being able to show the rest of town that they are town. So, sad times for me but I am at peace with it. What I'm still not at peace with is rayn falling off his townread on me. I never fell off my townread on him (he quoted a post in his 'vomit' goodbye post where it looks like I was calling him mafia because he started being suspicious of me - that wasn't the case at all, which I think should have been relatively clear by my terming it 'mega duped' by rayn - i.e. mega duped = i was hard townreading him. I just couldn't understand why when we'd been strong townreading each other that he'd stop. Because I got really convinced that DP was mafia? That seemed like a strange reason to stop hard townreading me).

It also means I've probably misplayed today badly as well, objectively the right thing to do was probably to lynch LS and I am being screamed at in the observer chat why I didn't do that. Well, unfortunately I did not do that, and I am way too far in to want to do that now (and probably couldn't even if I wanted to). So alas, here we are...



Most of all the above is still right as far as I am concerned. Some slight differences:

LightningStrike is more likely to be mafia than what I posted there, the sheep on me was real bad (would still take it )
Alakaslam I think is a bit less likely to be town based on his posts today. I also thought more about the reasoning that both rayn and I gave, and the plausible alternative is that a mafia-Slam changed votes from MZ to Vivax because why the fuck not? I still think this is the less likely version, because at the time Vivax was lynched, mafia did not know a vigilante would shoot and flip MZ. Meaning Slam didn't know it would look okay on him that he made the switch to Vivax.

I know and understand that part of the reason rayn was suspicious of me, and probably the rest of you too, was that I didn't talk much about LS day 2. And voted VE late or something like that. The whole of D2 (Friday evening and all of Saturday) was just bad timing for me irl-wise, there's nothing more to it than that. From my perspective, I thought I had identified a mafia (DP), and we were merrily lynching VE (mafia), there did not seem to be much reason to talk about LS, he wasn't running away. I'm not going to say anything else in my defence.

DarthPunk

Somewhere today he posted a whole bunch of rayn posts to show that I am supposed to be mafia (not very good at making a proper case against me himself). I just really want town to remember that it wasn't clear like that for rayn at the time he died either:



Obviously what I am including here is that rayn is betting that I am more likely mafia, well fine. But it's certainly not that he died giving DP a big town-read either. And, from my own perspective, I have one big advantage that rayn does not have, which is I know my own alignment.

Imagine me making that post that rayn made (in fact many of our reads are fairly similar). rayn came down to the conclusion that it was between me, LS, and DP. Now, if I am making that post myself - let's say all the other reads are the same, Slam, DMB, etc etc. I would be left with 3 players the mafia could be between - rayn, LS, and DP. Except I strongly believed all game that rayn was town. Which brings the 3 options that rayn gives down to 2 options, DP and LS. It shouldn't be surprising that I am hard scumreading DP then!

I was going to write a lot more about DP in this post, but it turns out I don't want to. I tried my best but I lost a lot of confidence. Either I am right on DP and no-one believes me and I am in an oasis on my own. Or I am very wrong and I'm still on my own. Because maybe I can come up with alternative explanations for some of what he's done. Maybe somehow he can have inherent guilt as town. I still find it hard to believe for this post:

This was his original reaction when I started pointing things out:


Like he is literally admitting my scumread on him is valid.

But then I look at some other posts and they're not so bad again. So never mind

On May 31 2023 04:56 marvellosity wrote:
The problem is that rayn was the obvious shot regardless

On May 31 2023 04:58 die_meatbaby wrote:


For me you seem more town then DP

On May 31 2023 05:00 marvellosity wrote:

So this is going to sound like a strange question from someone who played a million games and you played 1. What would you be doing in my position right now?

On May 29 2023 10:36 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I've been sleeping all day, i just got up for a minute to write this before eon.

I think it's fairly certain TTT is town. Like before meapak flipped and after the flip for some time i thought the way he approached the game from mafia perspective, but at some point his his view changes to that VE is easily most likely to be mafia, and at that point there is no real pressure yet on VE. It doesn't make any sense for mafia to invent a story where marv is pushing a lynch on town meapak just to change his focus completely to his scumbuddy AFTER he has PROOF that his original assessment could be right (meapak flip).

I also think Slam and Chezinu are town. Now that we know meapak has flipped town, there is pretty much no real reason for slam to praise marv all D1 then vote on Vivax instead of Meapak. Like it's a contradiction he would notice if he was mafia, there is no harm voting Meapak over Vivax as both are town, it just doesn't make much sense to me as mafia. Chezinu has been quite on point on his suspects, i really liked his suspects list D2, and i think VE voting for Chezinu is a point on his favor as well. Like i think VE could vote for his scumbuddy in a situation like that, but i don't think that's the case here. He had other options as well, and it really make it look worse for VE rather than make a good play by distancing.

mebaby is hard to crack but after all i see her townie. VE could technically hard-clear her, but i still doubt in case they were both mafia. Maybe 75% chance that alone makes her town. Another thing is that afer inventing the story on ray + Vivax being mafia, mebaby had all the reasons as mafia to go after me, and while noone would believe her most likely, noone would also blame her for it most likely. Instead of doing that, she invents ANOTHER story of how Vivax got lynched, throws in her scumbuddy VE, votes for him, and says VE is 10000% mafia. I don't buy it she does that as mafia.

So while i know i could be wrong here somewhere, that's still what i think at the moment. And that leaves me with LS / DP / marv.

LS looks definitely worst in the bunch. Disconnected with the game, and while i have nothing really that says "this guy is definitely scum", i have also nothing that says this guy is definitely town. Everyone else looks just more town, that's it. I think you should always lynch LS the next day, it's just the most likely correct answer by poe and his disconnect with the game. Low volume poster or not, his posts still feel like no intention to solve.

DP and marv.. Ugh... Like every time i am in the thread with marv we're seeing things pretty similarly. That's usually town tell. I consider myself a decent player and if another decent player agrees with me then we're usually doing right things, and even if he is mafia we're still doing right things. That is early on. Lately there have been things that bug me. All the questions i asked yesterday i think are worth asking. I am not completely sure they make him look mafia but they are still worth asking. Maybe the biggest thing is i don't get how he can feel so strongly about DP being mafia, even before VE flip. It doesn't make sense to me, nor does the AFTER flip reaction when i have just kinda lead a lynch on mafia VE:

Like.... rayn leads a lynch on mafia VE, DP is big suspect for marv, suddenly after flip i am mafia just because i have doubts about him as i clearly can't figure out all mafia as Onegu also flips. It's just... idk, maybe he is just a bit butthurt i am calling him mafia, i really don't know because it doesn't look natural. Another thing is i think DP was way more natural to flip his read on VE. To me that felt like "i thought he was town but shiiiitt.. this is good you nailed it dude!", which is really natural when i read an ACTUAL good case.

I also know marv has had doubts on VE a long time, but never really acted on them. I don't think there was a lot of time left when i made my case on VE, i DO have a feeling marv SHOULD see those things before, and acted on them. Hell he wrote good stuff like "VE lynches Vivax because D1 is the only day when he can lynch town Vivax", really good shit. But not realising VE is mafia earlier when all the evidence is there? Weird.

I think DP has looked more natural in his read progression. If LS is mafia, i don't know why DP has to have him as soft buss all game? Like DP can bus for sure, but i don't know what's it worth? If LS is town why wasn't LS up for lynch by mafia DP on D2? With LS wagon distraction there it could be possible, even LIKELY that there is a town lynch instead of VE lynch, and noone could even blame DP for that because he has been playing towards it whole game. Hell even if LS is mafia lynching inactive mafia member in team instead of hyper active VE is a win in comparison to situation now.

I don't know. PoE says LS is mafia and after that occam's razor says one of marv or DP is mafia. Don't get me wrong, just if i analyse both of them individually they look town, but there HAS TO BE third mafia in this game. Gun to head i would say marv over DP, but i am really not sure.

That's the vomit in case i die.

On May 28 2023 13:18 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Both of you have a huge problem to lay your vote on VE, when it's not that hard of a vote.

On May 28 2023 12:08 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Why is VE suspicious to some extent but never TOO suspicious, it was not hard to pick up the right things?
Why is DP more suspicious than VE? I know on paper i would also say DP is suspicious but everything is not on paper, like the Koshi thingy, blaming me on his vote shit that's next level if mafia...

On May 31 2023 05:30 die_meatbaby wrote:


As you sad you are the expierenced player.
Whose idea was it to shoot Rayn that night? Why do you think he was shot at and not you, TTT or me? I mean everyone is pretty sure that TTT and I are town. Why not kill the people who probably won't be voted out?

On May 31 2023 05:56 DarthPunk wrote:
Marv if we are both town, first of all we are bad, but who is the scum team?

This is a genuine question I’m not trying to tunnel you here no matter the answer.

Cause I also know I am town, and am using poe to end up on you and ls as the scum team.

So who is it if I am town and you are??

On May 31 2023 05:43 die_meatbaby wrote:
Was somebody thinking what if DP and marv both flips to town? Chez and Slam are just not really posting here. Less posts less suspect.
Right now it seems like marv get voted out (could be mafia but let us see him as town) Marv flips town,
6 Players left 4 town 2 mafia
chez, ttt , LS, Slam, DP and me.
then there comes the night. They kill another town.
5 players left 3 town 2 mafia.
we will of course all vote on dp. Like everybody all of us.
Dp flips as town as well. 2 town 2 mafia
Next night they kill another town player
1 town left 2 mafia
We lose. This non aktiv players get the win.

On May 31 2023 06:10 marvellosity wrote:

I really don’t know. I’m 100% it’s not DMB. Slam and Chez you literally can never be too sure either way. But I haven’t spent the time I needed on any of TTT, Chez, Slam because I’ve been so sure on you.

If you are town this is going to be a difficult thing to get your head around, do we call a truce today and lynch LS? I have bed relatively soon so I kinda need to decide what I’m doing.

And I know I know I know asking someone who I’m apparently hard mafia reading if they want a truce is nuts. But LS is just mafia here.