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Palmar
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The super original version of this game had silent nights, which solves that problem while allowing the doctor to act. However the "allowed to talk" buff for town had to be countered somehow, hence the "doc inactive n0" nerf. That being said, this is your setup, so your call. /in | ||
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I am not kidding with the "I will quit playing if someone plays suboptimally" thing. | ||
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Optimal play for mafia is to counterclaim, if they don't they have a chance of losing the game outright, and even if they don't that significantly cuts down their chance of winning. Optimal play for the doctor is to not claim and protect the cop claim he believes the most. Not that it really matters because it's suboptimal for the mafia to shoot the cop anyway, because that just confirms their counterclaim as mafia, making the game equally hard, with the added risk that in 50% of games the doc protects correctly and mafia just loses outright. Optimal play for town is to play like townies and figure out which cop is real. I will be checking into a pool of 5 people, 1 of them will be mafia (I won't check myself and I won't check the counterclaim). If any of you can sound enough like town so I can rule you out from being checked on n0 or n1, that'd be great. We will never lynch on day 1, unless something amazing like mafia just being really bad and not putting up any kind of a fight and I get a red check, in which case we can move the game along. If even 1 single person is not on my side in the counterclaim wars, we just sleep, get another check for both the cops" and make the decision in a 3v2 lylo with 2 cops and 2 checks from each of them, that is the maximum amount of information we can have. | ||
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we clear? | ||
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I already explained your optimal play, follow it please so I don't have to think. | ||
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On February 10 2017 07:25 Rels wrote: yeah a cc war already if I had to decide with 0 info Palmar would be the one I lynch. More his type to do this kind of play than LS yeah but you're bad If I roll cop, I claim. | ||
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On February 10 2017 07:35 LightningStrike wrote: Tbh if Palmar is town idk why he wanted to claim cop (my role) other than trying to take the shot but if he's scum he was trying to get the doc on to him to not protect me. Jesus please I cannot be town because I am not retarded enough to fake claim cop as town, it's terrible to do so. Which brings me to, if this is a stunt, and you're trying to give me a hint that you're actually fake claiming by talking about it, just retract, because it's 100% useless to fake cop as town in this setup. So if you somehow are town and thought it was a good idea, stop RIGHT NOW. I cba dealing with a more complex game than I have to. | ||
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On February 10 2017 07:39 LightningStrike wrote: Well for one I am the real cop and will get you lynched. I not talking to confirmed scum anymore. Nice firm statement mr president | ||
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But it's much more fun to talk about who to check. I'm thinking maybe Vivax? I don't like his face? It's stupid? | ||
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On February 10 2017 08:46 Damdred wrote: Let me say I believe ls here, just because I don't think he has the balls (no offense to ls) to go for the cc in Palmar like that. This is the worst train of thought. If mafia doesn't CC me they lose, instantly. It's nothing to do with balls, you just counterclaim, because it's what you have to do. | ||
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On February 10 2017 08:57 LightningStrike wrote: Because sometimes there is pants on head town like sicklucker who would pull what palmar did as town and so I engaged with otheres and concluded that he's confirmed scum unless he's sicklucker. I always play 100% logically except when I don't and you know that aka, "checking if palmar is pants on head retarded" is, by definition, a pointless effort | ||
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On February 10 2017 09:31 ritoky wrote: for palmar it's in his wheelhouse as a considered play as both cop or mafia, for LS i think it's in his wheelhouse to snap make a yolo reactive play. It's not just in my wheelhouse. If I had rolled mafia I would have done exactly the same (well I would probably have had my partner make the cc because I'm terrified of the "lynch palmar" bias but alas). But the outcome would be the same. If I'm on the mafia team, mafia does exactly what LS did. Like it's 100% correct play as cop to claim, so I did it. It's also 100% correct play as mafia to counterclaim, so I would have. | ||
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On February 10 2017 15:17 Malongo wrote: I am claiming because its unlikely mafia will gamble a hit on me now that You're a dumbass please don't do that. | ||
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On February 10 2017 16:01 Vivax wrote: For now we leave the cop claims be and focus on finding the other scum. No I have no idea who it could be yet, nothing jumps at me particularly. Palmar should both cop claims check the same guy or not? Neither should claim who they're checking because mafia will prefer shooting the person checked if he is town. I kinda don't wanna explain more until after daybreak (you can remind me to explain on d1), but please just trust me that it's optimal to not announce my check. | ||
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How did you not understand that? Like what is the confusion that caused you to ask that question? Reason I ask is that to me that looks 100% straightforward, feels like a pointless question. | ||
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On February 10 2017 20:34 LightningStrike wrote: I didn't read that post before I CC'd O_o look at me! I'm adorable and cute and wrong! heh, such lightningstrike, classic! woopsiedaisy! | ||
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On February 10 2017 08:18 ritoky wrote: from my perspective the cop check should always be on vivax or malongo. palmar and ls have made themselves binary. rels, palmar, and damdred all have a good read on me and 1 of them is guaranteed not mafia. i have a soul read on damdred that is probably at least still partially functional. i am confident i can read rels quite well so that leaves vivax and malongo. This does feel like a fairly random post, although I could see mafia being too self-aware to literally suggest that they're not checked. The worst thing that can happen to mafia is that I check the non-cc partner tonight. Like it's not a good post by any stretch of the imagination, but does mafia have the balls to straight up say "yo, don't check me palmar". | ||
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@Doc: Do not claim your role until lylo (don't claim in mylo). I'm going to assume Malongo is a troll, not a retard. If he is genuinely doc and mafia believes him, he basically reduced our chance of winning from super likely to very unlikely. Also @Doc, tread carefully with wifom. TL players are retarded and like to go for homeruns. I know it's going to be tempting to not protect me (or LS, if you're bad at life) tonight, but you really, really should protect me. It's optimal play for mafia to shoot into the 4 people that might be doc (aka, not me or the 2 scummers), because they should be assuming that I'm protected, which is the reason I claimed in the first place. Yes, if you play optimally, your protection is "wasted" because mafia will shoot into town, BUT, I've seen mafia go for broke often in this setup (basically gamble the doc will try a big play, and just straight up shoot the cop). I am going to super mad if I die tonight. | ||
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Essentially, treat his claim as if it never happened, from now and until the end of the game. | ||
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we no lynch today, it's the only option | ||
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I'll catch up tomorrow, we sleep anyway. And no, it's not optimal for me to not worry about the last mafia because it only takes one person to fuck it up. I'm going to make goddamn sure that we get this game right. | ||
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I checked Rels because of this: On February 10 2017 07:25 Rels wrote: yeah a cc war already if I had to decide with 0 info Palmar would be the one I lynch. More his type to do this kind of play than LS n0 doesn't have a lot of information, so I decided to check a guy I both know is a good player and also gave himself an out to support LS, who is mafia (I know he's not confirmed scum to you all, but he is to me). I actually was gonna check someone else but changed my mind because I felt like I was being paranoid. Not gonna reveal who until day 2. But you will understand my reasoning once I tell you. With regards to the other mafia, I'm currently thinking it's Damdred. Like I have a reason to think everyone else might be town. Rels is confirmed town (checked by me). LS is confirmed mafia Malongo could be smart mafia, but he basically has erred on my side throughout the game. It's a really weird play to do if he's mafia. I'll explain why: If Malongo is mafia, and keeps siding with me, that means I have 2 people on my side in a 3v2 situation tomorrow. LS is obviously going to be on another side, so that means ritoky/rels/damdred (2/3 will be alive, assuming mafia doesn't shoot themselves and doesn't risk shooting me because we have a doctor alive). So he's then either betting on 2 townies being wrong (siding with LS and lynching me) and winning the game outright, or he's betting on us lynching damdred, and then himself winning 2v1 lylo with 2/4 of me, ritoky, rels and damdred alive with him. And if they don't hit the doctor tonight, town auto wins. So it makes no sense for mafia to side with town. This means that Malongo is likely to be town, because no mafia is going to take a 66% chance to just.... auto lose. This leaves ritoky and damdred. I think it's quite clear atm that I would prefer lynching damdred of the two. ritoky's effort and activity level is way higher, and for now that's good enough for me. I am 100% counting on doctor protection tonight. like please don't fuck this up mr. doctor. If I die, we can lose this game. | ||
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LS + Damdred. The far out options are LS + Malongo or LS + ritoky. For LS + Malongo, I have to assume they can't do math and for LS + ritoky, the person who seems to be most interested in the game is mafia, which is always bad. It's like a fairly straightforward read right now, but I'm gonna spend time reading ritoky and malongo again just to make sure. Also, unless we have a dumb shit for a doctor I'm going to have a red/green on one of rit/malongo/damdred tomorrow which will make things even easier. | ||
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Holy fucking shit lol. I was put at l-1 during the day by malongo... And then Damdred made some complete bullshit post I think? | ||
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no? well... | ||
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##vote Damdred Don't care which one we kill first. | ||
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On February 14 2017 07:03 LightningStrike wrote: Got a green check on Malongo. Rofl, doesn't that... confirm you scum? | ||
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On February 14 2017 07:13 ritoky wrote: Why the hell would we sleep again? I am just going to die, flip doctor, and he will red check damd. We will have dual reds on damd, and you'll be at the same place minus a conf blue. This is correct, but I have perfect information so whatever. palmar cop ritoky doc rels green malongo green ls mafia damdy mafia | ||
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On February 14 2017 07:33 Rels wrote: That's not a super play. He's confirmed scum if malongo claims doctor. With you actually. I KNOW THE GAME YOU DIPSHIT I HAVE A RED CHECK AND A MAFIA CC-ING ME, RITOKY CAN'T BE MAFIA HURR DURR | ||
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I thought about checking damdred n0 because I can never read him. ie: I think he's mafia every game and this one was no exception. However I got mad at rels for talking about me being possibly mafia and checked him instead because him not bowing to glorious town leader palmar felt scummy at the time. I humbly admit I forgot Rels has a case of the bads. | ||
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that is why I thought for a moment LS confirmed himself by greening malongo until I realized that technically ritoky could be mafia in LS world. | ||
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On February 14 2017 18:03 Rels wrote: lol expected. I think we decide Palmar vs LS today. And by that I mean we lynch Palmar today. Game is auto won or lost after that. You are so bad | ||
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On February 14 2017 19:05 Rels wrote: typical mafia talk "ILL EXPLAIN LATER BUT I HAVE GOOD REASONS I PROMISE". It's not that there are not good reasons. Reasons are very likely to be very good. But this line of thoughts ==> "I have a good reason but I'll disclose it later" is a scummy mindset very usually. Especially if the reason is very good. you are retarded. I didn't want to talk about the cop options on n1 because of several reasons: I did not want a cross-check with scum (which I ended up getting anyway) I did not want the scum to shoot my check I did not want scum to panic and go for a big play (try to hope the doc is retarded and didn't protect me) on n1 if I announced I was checking scum I was hoping LS might fuck up and check me (yes, this has happened, more than once in this setup. Mafia claims cop, then claims to check the real cop "to be sure"). | ||
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On February 14 2017 07:38 Palmar wrote: oh I talked earlier about checking someone. I thought about checking damdred n0 because I can never read him. ie: I think he's mafia every game and this one was no exception. However I got mad at rels for talking about me being possibly mafia and checked him instead because him not bowing to glorious town leader palmar felt scummy at the time. I humbly admit I forgot Rels has a case of the bads. | ||
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So we might as well lynch LS today, however there is the little problem of Rels being pre-disposed to thinking I'm mafia because god knows what reason. It's the inherent "lynch-Palmar" bias. We're all on the same page that if we lynch me we just lose the game today, right? | ||
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On February 10 2017 07:34 Palmar wrote: Although it would be fairly fitting for us to lose this game because town got unlucky and someone who's not a dumbass rolled cop | ||
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Do you know anyone on TL Mafia that believes as much as I do that people just like lynching him? Every time I play, people mistrust me, precisely because I say smart things and.... therefore must be mafia? You know the very, very common "Palmar needs to defend himself on day 2?" thing? I've even had to defend myself after lynching mafia day 1. People don't trust me. There is NO WAY that if I was mafia, I would decide to be the one making the fake-claim. This just does not happen. Go ahead and think for a little bit, what are the chances of me coming into the mafia QT and going "hey, I think I'll cc. People tend to believe me and let me live so whatever". I would never do that. I don't really know how to defend myself. I've, in my opinion, played this game perfectly. I claimed (as is optimal), I got a green on d1, but did get a red on d2 (which is good), I've "solved" the game, and even my scumreading hunches have been "ok". I was right ritoky was town, and my analysis on Malongo and why he was town turned out to be correct too. I'm going to eat, I'll be around. please be less stupid. | ||
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On February 14 2017 21:17 Rels wrote: If Damdred is not scum with you this is the point where he should have gone "OK you're right let's kill Palmar". Damdred is scum | ||
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On February 14 2017 20:54 Rels wrote: Yep Palmar you got fucked by LS playing naively and damdred playing weird about you. Regardless of alignment I might add. It points at you being scum soooo much. If you're town they both played brillantly No let's be clear. I didn't get fucked. Well, the only thing that's fucking me over is you, and specifically you. I don't really know where ritoky and malongo stand, but I have a lot more faith they are going to vote with me than you. If I got "fucked over", it's rolling cop in a game with someone who is so afraid of me lying that he doesn't think, aka you. My dream scenario is that you, LS and Damdy all vote me, with me, ritoky and malongo voting either damdy or LS, just so I can point and laugh at you for being the worst. | ||
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It's just.. ????? | ||
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On February 14 2017 22:00 Malongo wrote: I´d actually lynch LS. Funny thing is, in case we disagree we could have a no lynch scenario. Then we get 6vs2 when mafia actually has to hit one of us. we can't get a no-lynch scenario. If the game goes to 3v3 with me/ritoky/you on one side and reks/ls/damdred on the other, Rels will realize he's an idiot and move over, killing LS/Damdred and for all intents and purposes ending the game. Unless he actually thinks me/ritoky are a scumteam? | ||
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On February 14 2017 21:47 Rels wrote: - you haven't done anything townie - LS has done townie things - if Damdred is scum his interactions with you are way more partner indicative than his interactions with LS - if ritoky is scum he's with you yes I have done townie things, you just didn't read them no he hasn't, he has fumbled around a bit which is par for the course for LS, but doesn't make him town for the other two, meh, damdred is scum, ritoky isn't. | ||
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On February 14 2017 22:34 Rels wrote: lol if another townie votes LS we lose instantly if he's town See, that's the trick, he isn't. ##unvote ##vote LightningStrike Killing Damdred means another day of arguing with Rels being dumb. I'd rather this ended today (damdred will concede when I'm confirmed cop unless he's an asshole). | ||
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At least normally when people irrationally try to kill me for saying townie things and acting like town, I can play the mini-game of trying to figure out which one might be mafia. Now I just.... know, there's nothing to solve for me here. Just hope for it. Like if this day is so obvious Rels, why haven't damdred/LS voted me? Think it's maybe because them doing so and no one jumping the hammer confirms me? Maybe they thought of that? Who knows? Mafia is such a random game wow... | ||
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I want everyone to be right, I don't want a contested shit-game lynch. I want glorious stomping of the mafia team with every townie on the right side of history. | ||
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you get the difference right? If they vote me right now, it's 3v2 with ritoky (who is town) holding the hammer. If they however wait and convince ritoky (or malongo) to vote me, they can blitz the hammer and end the game right there and then on their own terms. It's an advantage. | ||
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On February 14 2017 23:34 Malongo wrote: Actually the most important votes are ritoky/damdred here, because it is obvious that Palmar and LS will vote eachother. damdred will vote me, if he votes LS he's just... losing the game for them. When LS flips mafia I'm confirmed unccd cop with red on damdred. Damdred WILL vote me in EVERY SITUATION. So assume damdred will vote me. The only important vote here is ritoky (and that stupid french guy). | ||
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On February 14 2017 23:38 Malongo wrote: That is wrong, because if you are town we still need his vote to lynch LS, sir you are digging you own hole. No, you are wrong: If you, me and ritoky vote LS, and damdred/rels/ls vote me it's gonna be 3v3. In that situation, mafia will quickhammer me, IF THEY CAN. But the problem is they CAN NOT, because they're both already on me. When Rels sees that he is town and no mafia moves to quickhammer me, it makes me confirmed town, and Rels will move over and hammer LS, ending the game. The point is, I don't care about a 3v3 situation that requires damdred and LS to be both on me to make it 3, because they need 2 townies to kill me, not just 1. | ||
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On February 14 2017 23:40 Rels wrote: if ritoky is town and votes LS Damdred hammers LS and game is lost. That is what Palmar is pushing for Except for the 200 posts where I'm trying convince YOU because I fucking need YOU you goddamn imbecile. Holy shit this is the worst. | ||
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worst. | ||
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On February 15 2017 00:08 Malongo wrote: Yeah i get that, but ritoky is the other piece i`d like to get first. Sure, but even then he can't hammer anyone but me, and if he's going to do that there's nothing you or I can do to stop him, because the "kill palmar" faction has the 2 mafia + rels already. | ||
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On February 15 2017 01:24 Damdred wrote: ##Vote Palmar Palmar and Ritoky not the team I thought originaly but the only one it can be  .look ritoky! we're a team, let's vote together! | ||
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literally both malongo and ritoky can win the game right here if they're mafia by hammering me (3 votes on me), so they're both confirmed town Everyone is confirmed town, LS and damdred team | ||
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On February 15 2017 01:39 LightningStrike wrote: Or what if Palmar decided to "red check" his partner? this is suicide because there is no way mafia would know ritoky was gonna claim doc. If mafia buses partner with doc and cop alive, mafia loses outright because the doc can guarantee one more check even if the cop doesn't hit red like I did. | ||
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On February 15 2017 01:46 Damdred wrote: I'm glad we can see eye to eye here LS. I hope this is what you think because it is the truth no matter what we have to stick together. rofl | ||
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On February 15 2017 01:46 Rels wrote: That is very false too. Whatever happens, Palmar vs LS needs to be decided at some point, and more checks doesn't change anything. wait right, yeah sorry. Like I keep considering the game from the point of perfect knowledge. You are correct about the palmar vs ls thing. | ||
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On February 15 2017 07:45 Acrofales wrote: I warned pre-game that scum would have to play proactively. that wasn't the problem. As koshi talked about pre-game you basically made a terribly unbalanced game and said "well scum have to play well". I mean, I signed up for it, so I'm not mad, but don't think for a second that this was anything close to a balanced game. We did manage to convince one townie for a time (malongo) but we needed two because ritoky decided to be a hero and save rels. I thought about shooting ritoky or LS (just to go for the big play) but whatever. | ||
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In the end, the host wanted to make a game where town won, so he made a town favored setup and succeeded. For us to win, we needed good play on part of both mafia, and a mistake or two by town. @ritoky, i don't do blue reads and I never, ever have. | ||
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On February 15 2017 18:00 Acrofales wrote: Oooh look, it's nitpick Palmar's posts day. I got one that I commented to Artanis: A town Palmar should know that he does need to convince Rels, however hard that may be. Rels was confirmed town, and the nature of this game is that barring a bus, all of town needs to vote together to kill scum. A few posts later he had corrected himself, and nobody in the game really picked up on it, but it was a small slip in an otherwise convincing lie. Too bad for him that the real cop was quite obviously town :p This is actually just wrong. Let's assume I'm town for a moment, and the real scumteam is LS/Damdred, as is the situation is the same as I was trying to convince people we are in. LS/Damdred/Rels all vote me Ritoky/Malongo/Me all vote mafia LS Here's what would happen, if I was actually town: If there is 1 mafia on each wagon, the mafia that is voting LS would quickly move to vote me, ending the game in a scum victory. There cannot be 2 mafia voting LS, because by definition if I am town, LS is mafia. however in rels world there can be So if we ever reach the stage (3v3) with 2mafia + rels voting me, and 3 townies voting LS, Rels would have to come to the conclusion that he is voting alongside mafia. Obviously the real case was that I was mafia and what would have happened is damdred would quickly move over and hammer LS, ending the game, which was obviously my endgame as Rels picked up on: On February 14 2017 23:40 Rels wrote: if ritoky is town and votes LS Damdred hammers LS and game is lost. That is what Palmar is pushing for HOWEVER: There was no mistake in the worldview that I was pushing. Timeline of what would have happened if I was Town: 1) Rels, LS and Damdred (1 town, 2 mafia, vote Palmar) 2) Palmar convinces ritoky and malongo to vote LS (3 town votes) 3) Stalemate 4) Rels comes to the conclusion (without me convincing him) that one side must have 2 mafia, or otherwise the game ends. 5) Rels needs to make up his mind between the two possible mafia teams (palmar + ritoky) or (ls + damdred). This situation also confirms me town to ritoky. So no, all I had to do was convince ritoky and malongo I was town, that would always lead to rels having to re-evaluate without me having to do anything to really sway him. | ||
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On February 15 2017 19:01 raynpelikoneet wrote: Are you trying to say that a 3v3 stalemate with 1 mafia in each wagon will convince Rels (when you can just break the stalemate as mafia and win)? I am a bit confused here. No absolutely not. 3v3 with 1 mafia on each wagon, as you pointed out, is by definition not a stalemate, because mafia can just hammer and win. that is precisely WHY the stalemate proves there isn't 1 mafia on each wagon (unless they trolling, in which case... who cares). | ||
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On February 15 2017 19:07 raynpelikoneet wrote: Oh yeah i get it now. While you are right from YOUR perspective (if you were town) I am not sure you are right from Rels' perspective since Rels doesn't know if you are mafia or not (and wants people to not vote hastily). So idk. If you were town, would you have tried to convince Rels the confirmed townie or not? Of course you didn't have to as mafia - but as town, would you or not? What would have been your best play - as town? While technically you are correct Palmar, would you have - as town - "convince Malongo and ritoky and then Rels must see the light"? I am not sure you would. I don't know, if I knew how I behave as town when I'm scum I'd be unreadable. No one is unreadable. I would, I think, in both cases have been trying to convince Rels anyway. Probably in a slightly different tone/enthusiasm, but yeah. | ||
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On February 15 2017 19:09 Rels wrote: oh you're talking about you playing as if you were town. OK. yeah I'm just pointing out why Acrofales is being a dumbass. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
There are several interesting tidbits in the mafia QT: a) I really did not want to be the one claiming cop I have no idea Damdred One thing is for certain, we have to claim cop right away. So unless you're here in the next few minutes I'm doing it. Damdred wasn't around right then, so I went ahead and claimed. b) I magically predicted precisely LS being the other cop: It's probably going to fail hilariously, I will know that it's 100% the best play to claim cop and make an argument out of that, then the other cop will be some idiot who does something stupid and adorable and town will just believe him because a) palmar rolls 95% mafia, and b) stupid and adorable. I'd like to think that if the doc couldn't act on n1, and thus we had freedom to not claim until we had a grasp of the game and maybe some town credit, I would have shot LS, precisely because of the fear that a transparent, naively sounding player that is unlikely to fakeclaim would happen to be the cop. But to be honest, I probably wouldn't have shot LS | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
On February 15 2017 19:37 raynpelikoneet wrote: yeah, i agree the reason Acrofales says you "scumtold" is not a scumtell. It might be, but for different reasons he outlines, since logically there are no holes in your argument. oh I fucked up a lot, I do every game as scum. But it's usually not logic fuck ups. I mostly get caught on tone/enthusiasm/being wrong in the wrong way. I don't mess up mechanics and poe as scum or town really. | ||
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