On August 06 2016 08:50 -Celestial- wrote: I am legitimately terrified here of a scenario in which someone gets lynched D4, turns out to be town, and I'm top scum D5. Because we just lose the game straight up.
If I haven't counted wrong, it should be like this if we mislynch D4 D3: 5 town/3 mafia N3: 5/2 D4: 4/2 N4: 3/2 D5: 2/2
Which means we won't even be in D5 if we lynch moosy D4 and he flips town.
Damn I forgot about the N3 kill when I was checking it over. I had us at 5/2 on D4. Yeah I think you're right, we mislynch now we lose. Even if we hit mafia D4 we're still 3/1 on D5 which means lose D6.
Tbh we probably just lose this game. There's a lot of unknowns right now and we can't afford another mistake, even if we've got the time to try to work it out. But we still have to try.
With your pathway, silent, if we follow it then we lynch Moosy D4. If he flips scum, so we don't immediately lose, I can't defend myself properly D5 (traveling and then in a place with poor internet and only with my phone for D5) so we lose right there instead.
I know you're saying "its a long way off and you're less scummy" but you need to ask me questions to confirm or deny that I'm town during D3 and D4 (i.e. RIGHT NOW) and get me confirmed in your mind by D5; or we just lose D5 in literally the worst way possible.
I kinda want to just give up now, this is really depressing. I've been working off the assumption since the Kelsier flip that we'd have a mislynch to work with. ;_;
On August 06 2016 10:52 MoosyDoosy wrote: I don't know why he's freaking out about people worrying otherwise
I wasn't, I was freaking out about being the potential D5 rather than D4 lynch because I thought we had one more mislynch in us.
I go away on holiday in a week so my activity is going to go down for D5. I thought that if we mislynched one we're still in it; so I was thinking I'd rather be lynched D4 and we can get that out of the way and everyone can re-evaluate their reads rather than get a different mislynch before me and me being on the spot whilst totally unable to defend myself a week from now (on D5).
My point was its better to make a mistake on me now when that mistake isn't fatal, than in a week when it will be both fatal and almost inevitable (because I won't be able to argue back effectively).
As it is my point is totally arbitrary. I miscounted. If we mislynch we lose.
Well not totally unable. But it becomes much more difficult for me to filter dive extensively and stuff like that. And also I just won't be on so much.
Yeah, no. Sorry Lunatic but there is virtually no way you are town here. After that play you're not getting anything but scumread especially considering said play wiped out the last mislynch chance we had and killed an actual blue.
There is probably somewhere south of a 1% chance of you actually being town here. And that's being VERY generous. You're an auto-target at this point.
On a side note I'd like to point out that scott is still nowhere to be seen. With a filter consisting of literally of around two dozen posts in the entire game. And in the last eight posts he's said no less than three times he is going to give some reads or be around for discussion or whatever. And then just hasn't.
On August 02 2016 08:09 scott31337 wrote: I'll be around to discuss some things later.
After which he made two posts, which are frankly stretching the definition of "discuss". One going "nice find" to the vote-count thing Moosy led me to. The other asking Rels if he's "run out of energy".
Then:
On August 03 2016 14:08 scott31337 wrote: I took the day off work tomorrow so I'll read over then and give my thoughts.
This was the car accident post. So its a bit more understandable that he doesn't follow up on this when he said he would.
Then a post about how he's skimmed the thread and will leave a vote.
Then:
On August 06 2016 03:40 scott31337 wrote: I'll try to get some time later.
That was twenty hours ago, so rapidly approaching a full day, with no follow up. Not even a "whoops I didn't get time".
I'd like to reiterate that scott is doing literally jack all, his earlier posts are questionable at BEST, and despite all of that people are heavily townreading him for that and some vote indicators.
But I've been banging this drum for a while now and a bunch of people are flat out ignoring it, yet are apparently totally unable to explain it away. Wake the hell up, everyone.
On August 07 2016 00:55 Lunaticman wrote: What if I told you I am that 1%. I just told you why. At least you could give me the curtious call to read my answer.
I know I have failed you but at least give me one more try.
I've read your posts. It absolutely does not change my position. Yes, there are possible reasons for making such a play, none of those reasons excuse what actually happened. Nor is it a play a town should EVER make when one mislynch from LYLO because, if the play goes bad, it makes them an automatic lynch the next day and therefore is an outright game-losing play. The only side who would (or rather should) ever make such a fake-claim play at this point in the game is scum, full stop.
Not lynching you now is literally the worst town play possible by every single measure. I would be more inclined to believe someone telling me the sky is green than you being town right now.
In the unbelievably unlikely event that you are town then Kelsier doing jack all when he was a blue and you counterclaiming him when you were a green quite literally pushed us from "bad position" to "losing the game". And, frankly, makes this game a total embarrassment for all of us honestly.
In a normal game I'd say that the other two mafia are likely to be in the group of people who aren't currently voting Lunatic because they're waiting to see if he can come up with any excuse to convince people. Though that would make them super obvious scum.
This game? Could go either way. People just aren't playing.
I actually spent an hour or two the other day developing a cute spreadsheet which might help my mafia reads now and in future. It uses a weighting system and a score system to cumulatively balance out my opinions on people's individual posts, as well as their vote in order to assign them a rating of how likely they are to be mafia.
Assuming Lunatic is actually mafia so we don't lose immediately I might give it a go tomorrow and see what output it gives us. If I do I'll post the results.
Okay so left we got: silent BTDT scott J Roc Skynx
1 mafia left out of a total of 6. We lose one tonight which makes it 5:1.
EVEN IF we get a mislynch that just makes it 3:1. Which means we have two whole days to do this now.
silent isn't mafia. Not after saying he wanted Moosy as his D4.
J Roc is...probably unlikely. I was going to say definitely because I've been fairly convinced for a while but his recent filter isn't so great.
That means its probably scott, BTDT or, at a stretch, Skynx.
scott looks awful. Flat out awful.
BTDT looks a bit better but I'm very mixed. There's indicators that he can't possibly be on Lunatic's team but Rels pointed out that cute little play Lunatic made on D2.
Skynx is a stretch admittedly. There's just...bits and pieces here that I was a bit eh on.
I can't really go into details right now because I've literally had a bottle and a half of prosecco so...
I'll try to filter tomorrow. If anything can even be made of the absolute mess that is everyone's filter at this point.
EPT
