EPTI don't think so but its within the realm of possibilities. Would give more time for BTDT to develop a filter to look at.
Newbie Student Mafia XXII - Page 7
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-Celestial-
United Kingdom3867 Posts
I don't think so but its within the realm of possibilities. Would give more time for BTDT to develop a filter to look at. | ||
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-Celestial-
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"Lunatic's claim came off the back of actually doing stuff". You are contradicting yourself here. You pointed out, as others did before you, that most of Lunatic's stuff was actually empty, half-hearted, and scum-indicative. "Writing stuff" then. Stop misrepresenting my post. My point was there was more to Lunatic's filter than KSC's. Sure, Lunatic's was kinda empty and half-hearted but KSC had done JACK ALL, ALL GAME. Celestial is a more experienced player. This is not untrue but very deceptive. I have three games on here prior to this plus one co-host, and nothing for quite some time now. I've played it before in other settings, but never on a forum. I don't see any purpose in this question besides that one. You mean besides wanting to know if he'd be getting replaced or not? There wasn't one. I was interested to know. Because you imply that a lynch that is not scott would make up for decent VCA. You're missing the part where scott was the only wagon at that point and a very lazy one at that. If everyone is on the same wagon then firstly its probably town and secondly you literally can't draw any information from the voting. This is really basic stuff here... And boom, joining the mislynch wagon and abandoning the silent vote. You going to skip the part where I DIDN'T switch and me and Stutters were being scumread for trying to point out that mderg was a bad lynch? It was a one-vote-in-it scenario. It'd have been super easy for me to sit back at that point if I was scum. Actually I checked the numbers just now and I'm a bit relieved, I thought another mislynch would end us but as long as we kill Lunatic tomorrow we have one more mislynch to play with. It doesn't, we can afford one more mislynch. Which totally takes the pressure off me again, I was seriously worried me being lynched would result in mafia win at this point because I hadn't checked the numbers. So please go ahead and kill me D4 if you like to confirm my alignment. I won't fight it. I'll be on holiday anyway at that point and frankly I'm getting very tired of the garbage going on in this game, I'd be glad to be out of it. Feels like half the town don't really care enough to play much and scum is getting away with literal murder. My death would probably be more informative than arguing back and forth on this. I don't really see any point in engaging more with BTDT, his scott defence is terrible and he's reaching for stuff that isn't there. He's either dumb town or scum. | ||
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-Celestial-
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But his stuff on scott is just weirding me out so much here. scott looks goddamn AWFUL. In every way. Perhaps I'm falling into an OMGUS trap. | ||
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-Celestial-
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Rels is un-ccd blue. Got to be town. Lunatic is confirmed mafia. And dies tomorrow. That leaves silent, BTDT, Moosy, scott, J Roc and Skynx. There's two more mafia in that. There had to be a mafia on mderg. Possibly one on RB/scott but without anybody on both I'm not sure how much that helps. I would think its an easy bus to make but if they KNEW he was likely getting replaced then why do that? Its not entirely outside the realm of possibility there ISN'T one on the RB wagon. - silent had a really over-reaching case on KSC which I didn't like. Then is frustrated with RB, as was everyone. Towns scott which I've never liked all game; scott's play has been very poor. Also really focused on the idea that Stutters is mafia. Which I didn't like either. But I really liked his latest and recent stuff. He cased Lunatic pretty well. I read Lunatic's filter and didn't like it much, then went back and looked at his case and liked the few things it hit (though there was a ton more). Conclusion: I guess town? Maybe? Probably I guess. Got to start somewhere. - BTDT has a 2 page filter which in a normal game is godawful but in this one...frankly this game has been garbage. Agree on the RB stuff being NAI. Called a Kelsier/Stutters team early on, both now flipped town. Also towned scott which I still hate, as above. Goes strongly after Lunatic a bunch. Ums and ahs over Grack. Constantly going on the "scott is town" thing. Please just...stop. His filter is terrible. Then starts scumming Grack over that whole "tvtt" thing Skynx brought up. Is it outside the realms of possibility that whole thing was tvtt now? I kinda think so but...maybe not. Could Skynx be scum? Dunno, I've not got to his filter yet. Calls J Roc town. Dunno, I also haven't got to re-reviewing J Roc yet but I STILL hate the calling of scott town. Case building on me because I called him scum (just OMGUS maybe?) and really, REALLY trying hard to get me into association with the two people I was actively scumreading ahead of him which is horrible. I reiterate: IF AND WHEN I FLIP TOWN THAT DOES NOT MAKE SCOTT TOWN. Conclusion: Honestly I don't know. I really really hate with every fibre of my being any townreads on scott right now; its unbelievably scummy to do so. And he's trying to link me with my top two lynch candidates which is weird as hell. Which tells me he's scum. But there is one saving grace in that he's been going after Lunatic literally all game, and Lunatic is basically confirmed mafia at this point. And that's townie. Like...really townie. But its the ONLY point on him. - Moosy has six pages. Still don't like the whole "oh RB is town because of that" thing. No, the RB thing is absolutely NAI. He's asking people to explain stuff and making reads, even if it is kinda low-content. Then he started doing some stuff that led into the Grack/silent association thing. The whole "soul read on Rels" thing I still hate; I already pointed out that that kind of thing has literally almost lost me games before. In any case...genuine "feel" read or mafia KNOWING Rels isn't scum? I don't know. Actually explicitly states his reads align with scott and then associates them both with Rels too. Which, on the one hand, I absolutely hate because I dislike anyone with association with scott at the moment. On the other Rels is un-ccd vig. This a play to get Rels on their side maybe? Also says he agrees with scott there 100% has to be a mafia on the RB train. Which I don't hate as an argument but...if we're going to play with tinfoil hats its a really good way to get people to focus on a train where there is absolutely no mafia. At this point three of the five on that train are flipped town so...anyway. Then the whole lead into the VCA thing with Grack/silent. Which is nonsense at this point of course, Grack flipped town. Calls his team as BTDT/Grack/Silent because of the association plus the absolutely godawful vote onto RB by BTDT. Eh...I don't absolutely hate this team at this point in the game, but Grack later flips town. Random stuff around and post-flip. The "I don't think vig should claim here" is a bit eh. I was kinda mixed on the idea after he said this as I recall but given the total lack of town information and the fact the vig shot was popped I was much more into the idea of the claim than Moosy was. Especially early on so we could actually start building something. Then makes silent town which is kinda eh. Means I think his only scumread left is BTDT. Seems always very interested in what people think of him which is very...yeah I don't like that. "Gut tells me BTDT is town but mind says scum" I really hate this line. Then calls BTDT scum again and basically says "Lunatic probably scum but he's all over the place and I don't know if scum plays like that". Trying to push on BTDT again whilst setting up to claim credit for a Lunatic lynch? "silent can't be mafia unless Grack is mafia and Grack flipped town" I'm a bit eh on but it looks a lot better in light silent's recent stuff. Lots of posts containing nothing. Gets excited about a potential BTDT shenanie, NAI since he's been scumreading BTDT. Really happy about the way the lynch is going around EoD2 it seems; in reply to Rels calling him scum. Which is a bit...eh. Trying too hard? Stuff about the flip is kinda NAI. Either side could act disappointed with that flip. Challenges silent who is calling him scum post-flip. He REALLY wants BTDT dead here, comments on Rels' post about how when he started going onto BTDT off Kelsier then Lunatic claimed. Which is actually a very legit point by Rels. Add that to why BTDT is possibly scum from above. silent has promised a case on Moosy, obviously Moosy not happy with it. Back-and-forth with Rels over reading. NAI stuff here. Almost joking around. The stuff about silent/Grack is legit; the VCA stuff was NOT the entire case but silent is sort of playing around that it is. This, however, is super weird: "ohhhh like when I made it N1 and everyone literally ignored it? where were you then smart one." I can't actually find a CASE on Lunatic anywhere. He asked for whether Lunatic made a post defending BTDT (which I replied to) and, in fact, was saying that he thinks Lunatic might be mafia but doesn't know for sure because mafia doesn't play like that. Conclusion: I really liked the stuff earlier on, despite low content, because it did actually seem to be going somewhere and asking people to explain their reasoning. Some of the more recent stuff though means the wheels have come off that a bit. And he's got a massive obsession with BTDT. On the one hand Rels' comment about BTDT and the Lunatic claim is actually super legit and a strong point against BTDT. On the other hand I'm really not liking this exchange between silent and Moosy. At all. Doesn't feel TvT but given how frustrated everyone is there's a slight possibility it could be. Could team be BTDT/Lunatic/Moosy? Seems super unlikely since BTDT has been on Lunatic and Moosy has been on BTDT. Given those two points the most likely pairing would be Lunatic/Moosy+1 from this. But I'm not totally sold that Moosy is scummier than BTDT. - scott31337: Don't need to write anything more here. See this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25916284 Conclusion: Scummy as all hell. - J Roc opens with general silliness. Didn't like it much. Bunch of nothing. Doesn't mind the vote going on RB despite disliking policies. NAI. I felt the same way. Reply to silent is decent. Highlights BTDT's godawful post about voting RB for reasons other than policy. Hated scott's entrance. Same mindset as me. Townie point for this. Also refuses to lynch Rels which I like; the guy was 100% getting modkilled or replaced if he didn't come back. Wasted lynch. Didn't want to lynch mderg either. Wants silent dead then, presumably to try to save mderg. Still doesn't like scott "we let Scott make a few posts then fuck off while the wagon moved off of him" is just too true. Tells Grack to not direct blues, fine. Wants to look at Rels, wouldn't lynch Moosy, hates scott. This is fine at this point. Good reply to me about Rels. Still claiming scott is mafia. Then there's a bit with Grack during N1 honestly I think Grack played a bit too fast and loose there, its what got him shot. Still wanting a scott lynch. Good logic on the Rels claim. Lynching scott all day every day. Conclusion: Never lynching J Roc next. His posts are too good. If we lynch scott and he flips town then we can maybe lynch J Roc. But I really don't live in a world right now where scott isn't scum and J Roc is. - Skynx random garbage first few posts. Never like garbage posts. Eh. Practically nothing until Race got banned. But after that his early stuff is pretty good otherwise. Picking at that Grack thing I didn't like is good. This exchange feels pretty townie for Skynx in light of Lunatic being scum. Rest of this is pretty good so far. Wants to lynch Rels for inactivity. Eh...don't like. But its kinda understandable. Liking where most of this is coming from. Then there's that "this isn't tvtt" post relating to Grack vs Stutters/BTDT. Which I still like the mindset of, but two have flipped town. If BTDT is town then there's an outside chance Skynx is scum based on this post. Specifically picks out BTDT as the weakest link there. Tells everyone to move away from scott which, at this point, I like. But I still think scott is scum so...maybe trying to make sure a scummate doesn't get lynched? I don't think so, the reason he's saying it is because they were votes on RB before he got replaced, not necessarily because he thinks scott is town as far as I can tell. Disagree where he says scott has a nice entry. Scott's posting is terrible. This is good: I had a post about something i didnt like about stutters then grack came in and defended him then stut sr'd grack. Meanwhile btdt sr'd Luna and when grack agreed he sr'd grack. Pretty sure there is one careless mafia here. His PoE reads as "Rels>Stutters>btdt>Grack>silent". Two of whom are now confirmed two and one is an un-ccd blue. Eh. Its not a terrible PoE for the point in the game the post is at though. There's a decent comment on mderg but mderg turns out to be town so its not great on reflection. Towns Rels, scott, Stutters. Hate scott being in there. Scums BTDT/mderg. I can't quite get my head around this quote tree. I THINK Stutters is saying Skynx is misrepresenting mderg? Throws out a BTDT vote and buggers off, his reasoning is alright though I guess. Bunch of stuff that's eh kinda townie. I like his reply to my tinfoil hat theory. Calls out Lunatic's post for inconsistency, engaging Lunatic well. I'm very eh over people against the vig claim; but it might be personal preferences here. His reasoning isn't terrible I think; though I dislike the back and forth with Rels on it. Rels' reasoning for the claim so early is good. More scumread stuff on Lunatic which is fine. Talking about silent some more. Convinced there is mafia on mderg (which is very likely), good. More stuff back and forth with Rels. Wasting time. I think this is just arguing over claiming theory. NAI. Very likely TvT; mafia probably doesn't care so much when Rels claims. Bit more talking about silent. Next bit is a bit weird. Decides that Lunatic all of a sudden shouldn't be lynch, despite him seemingly strongly scumreading Lunatic earlier. But then again, has been apparently quite suspicious of silent too. IDK why he's challenging Rels again here, an un-ccd blue, in such a way as to throw shade on Rels. Really doesn't want to lynch Lunatic now. Eventually just concedes saying he's tunneled. All this stuff is kinda...I don't like. Wants shenanie onto BTDT or KSC. Finishes fighting with silent again. Conclusion: I don't think he's scum. Or he's being very clever scum. However there IS an outside chance he's scum. Most of the early to mid-game stuff is good outside of a few little tells. The stuff around EoD2 though was pretty weird. If he's scum then silent is probably town, if silent is scum he's probably town. But both can be town. Bleh. Overall conclusion: Like...seriously. Can we just lynch scott? I'm not liking BTDT much still but the fact he's definitely been pushing Lunatic since literally D1 is something of an anchor on pushing to lynch him first now. J Roc is super townie, has been pushing scott all game. I absolutely hate everything about scott's play. I can't see any reason to NOT lynch scott after we string up Lunatic. The third mafia is quite probably between Moosy/BTDT unless Skynx is playing an absolute stormer of a game. I don't want to live in a world where J Roc is scum right now so he's totally off my radar. But I'd love to see a set of reads from him. Thinking self-critically I MIGHT be tunneled on scott here but I don't think so. There's two mafia in those six and scott has a horrible filter. Lunatic's filter might be worth a review as well to see who he hasn't engaged or has only do so 'gently'. | ||
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-Celestial-
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-Celestial-
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On August 06 2016 03:40 scott31337 wrote: Sorry I haven't been into the game much - I glanced we lynch the vet in a tight vote - best to look there next. Next we're lynching Lunatic since he effectively claimed scum with his cc leading to the mislynch. If you don't lynch Lunatic tomorrow you're pretty much claiming scum yourself. Also Rels already posted his last will here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=25917038 Summary: He wants Lunatic then BTDT. Then between Moosy and J Roc. Personally I'd rather lynch Lunatic then you. But I'll probably have another look at Rels' argument for reading you town in the next few days. Got plenty of time because we got the rest of this night, then all of D3. Then N3 and only then do we have to actually start deciding where to go next (because we're lynching Lunatic tomorrow, full stop). | ||
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-Celestial-
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On August 06 2016 03:58 Skynx wrote: If we have a cop/vigi thats not Rels you are losing this game. Celest, Rels, Moosy, Onegu should never be lynched. btdt 1st then I'd go Scott. I'm kinda drifting towards lynching scott first because if he flips red this game starts making a lot more sense. Why particularly BTDT first? Just because of the general scumminess? What about him going after Lunatic seemingly all game? | ||
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-Celestial-
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-Celestial-
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Like...he is literally scum.Outright. There's nobody scummier in this game than Lunatic because he's pretty much scumclaimed with that counter-claim and the flip. | ||
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-Celestial-
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Why? Because if Moosy were to flip town (which I'm eh on, but lets run with that) and you continue to push through on the lynch on me then I'd HAVE to defend myself because I think we'd be in MYLO and so town would lose if I flip town (which I will, but I'd say that as either alignment). I absolutely will not have the time or be able to do that to any great extent; I'll be on a bit, but not enough to defend in a MYLO situation. So town is guaranteed to lose under those circumstances. I'd like to avoid that. In contrast I don't actually have to defend myself if you decide to push me before then because we can afford one more mislynch. I might or might not, I dunno at the moment I'm really tired of this game honestly. Though it'll be a shame to lose my 100% survival rate. | ||
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-Celestial-
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If I have to die, please make it D4. | ||
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Its just I'd rather not end up in a situation where Moosy were to flip town and people want to lynch me then, because we just lose and I won't be able to struggle against the loss. | ||
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On August 06 2016 08:26 silentwarrior wrote: Right now Moosy is looking a lot more scummier than you are. So I'm going to push who I think is most scummy. But nothing is set in stone, D4 is a long way off, as is D5. I know that. But the problem with that is...well, if Moosy flips town, who would you push after that? Because if its still me then please for the love of god lynch me FIRST or I literally physically won't be able to try to stop the endgame win for mafia. | ||
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-Celestial-
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The thing that drew me to celestial at first was the fact that he survived N1. It was so strange to be honest. If you compare Stutters and Celestial, he was the obvious person to kill, not stutters. Agreed. No idea why I didn't die. Hence why I posted a legacy post. First, Moosy along with Celestial pulled up that bullshit VCA. Moosy seems like he would go for that sort of thing, but celestial suprised me by actually saying he liked it. What's more, he completely ignored the explanations we had that supported our views, even when it was stutters saying them. Celestial has made the biggest posts with the most analysis, but he barely even bothered to even think about the voting pattern more than a passing "eh, seems alright". Wasn't BS. The points against you and Grack went beyond that VCA which I've been saying literally all along but you and Grack keep and kept dragging it to "only be the VCA". The vote count stuff was only part of the case. But it was a nice neat little point. He also had a strong townlean on lunatic for no apparent reason. He did a filterdive of lunatic same time as me, and mentions some the things we now know makes lunatic scum. But he not only ignores some of those, he even makes excuses for them. Worse, he misses some of the huge red flags in lunatics filter, even though it was probably the shortest filter with the most scummy things. Such as? Also I think scott's filter was probably still the shortest. [quote]And then, when me and 3 others vote for lunatic he comes in and changes his mind? I'm sorry, I just don't believe that. We know mafia tried to bus Lunatic when it looked like he was dying. You don't have to believe it. But when there's only one wagon that late in the day I'm inclined to believe that it means that mafia don't care whether that person lives or dies. [quote]Also, in the same big post as quted above, he has the now confirmed townies (Rels, Grack, Kelsier, Silent) as mafia reads, while the ones that are more questionable much higher up. The only townie he has in town is stutters. But thing is, mafia knew he was gonna die that night, so ofcourse he was gonna be high on the list. [/quote] Yeah, because Grack was scummy as hell, Rels had just led a mislynch and Kelsier had done JACK ALL. And Stutters was townie literally because we had been simultaneously questioning the mderg wagon as being crap on D1. I was never lynching him after that. Whatever. Believe what you want. But DO NOT TAKE ME INTO MYLO ON D5 AS YOUR TOP SCUM READ BECAUSE TOWN WILL LOSE. PLEASE BELIEVE THIS. IF YOU THINK I'M SCUM KILL ME D4 AT THE LATEST. If its not MYLO D5 then go ahead and lynch me then if you must. Since I'll be on holiday and it'll free me up from having to check in. | ||
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Calling it now. Please do not forget this post. | ||
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