TL Mafia LXXIV: Storm Mafia 3
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Tumblewood
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On March 24 2016 10:11 LightningStrike wrote: Oh and hi tumblewood any thoughts so far on this game? Hi You, SL, gum, and Superb have been yelling about stuff and I've glossed over nearly all of it, though there's probably something to be extracted from it. Damdred, Shapelog, Kurumi and ritoky were technically in the thread, but they've done very little. The only point I can kinda dig is Vivax's concerning gumshoe, which I think is valid to bring up, but gumshoe's claim isn't provably true or false. I want to see more (people and posts) before I make a judgment with any weight behind it, because any read in the first ten pages is usually wrong and I don't think my reads are starting any useful discussion. TL;DR not yet | ||
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Vivax town for not skimming the early portion of the thread | ||
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On March 24 2016 10:27 LightningStrike wrote: Can you reread what me,SL, gun, and Super were talking about? I did thought you would at least taken some more notes on that. On March 24 2016 10:23 Tumblewood wrote: Hi You, SL, gum, and Superb have been yelling about stuff and I've glossed over nearly all of it, though there's probably something to be extracted from it. Damdred, Shapelog, Kurumi and ritoky were technically in the thread, but they've done very little. The only point I can kinda dig is Vivax's concerning gumshoe, which I think is valid to bring up, but gumshoe's claim isn't provably true or false. I want to see more (people and posts) before I make a judgment with any weight behind it, because any read in the first ten pages is usually wrong and I don't think my reads are starting any useful discussion. TL;DR not yet All there is behind your [plural] reads is meta and straw-grasping, so I don't find it important. You saw gumshoe's first entry post where he rambled for several paragraphs and came to no conclusions? That's what it would look like if I tried to read those four players. | ||
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On March 24 2016 10:34 LightningStrike wrote: About the straw-grasping: There wasn't much in the thread hence I tried to get some discussion going. Not all my reads are meta as my gun one is without meta(I didn't read his games yet but probably will after playing some LoL) Idk why you felt the need to justify your actions there; that wasn't an attack, nor was it directed at you specifically. | ||
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On March 24 2016 13:06 Damdred wrote: Nobody is confirmed in a closed setup until they die basically, there is always doubt that's why bill hard carried last storm by fake claiming blue and town eating it up. Give up the fishing and its kind of a meh conversation honestly. LS is probably town tour read rit is just horrible on him in general. Anyway I'm really not seeing it... why is LS town? You said earlier it was because "he had a few really transparent posts", but I'm not sure what those are. | ||
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I think one of Kurumi and LS is scum, because they were the gumshoe wagon starters (I don't feel comfortable scumreading either of the other two) and he was the target for a mislynch. Also, all of you scumreading Slam for that shot are idiots. He was wrong, but he's obvious town because of it. | ||
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On March 25 2016 03:16 justanothertownie wrote: You voted him too. Why are the wagon starters scum then? I haven't voted anyone. They're scum for pushing an easy mislynch. | ||
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On March 25 2016 03:21 justanothertownie wrote: Why the fuck did I think that you voted? I am confused. So you think townies never push other townies? That seems a little bit ridiculous. Townies push other townies, but for different reasons. Gumshoe posted really awkwardly (a la big ramble), and that paints a big target on his back that says, "Lynch me!" Townies look more at the people who aren't so obvious because the quality of the lynch actually matters to them. | ||
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I don't know what 2-hour gap you're talking about or why it matters, but if it was last night it was because I was lurking while doing calc homework and if it was today I was phoneposting between classes. Also, I committed to a read on gumshoe when I called him lynchbait. Lynchbait = Town that looks like obvious scum. | ||
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Vivax Slam - I seriously doubt that he's a mafia day vig Kurumi - stepped up his play just now, but I'd like to see less reads on the basis of how your reads line up Rels - had a very insightful townread on Kurumi Superb - reason stated minutes ago; largely transparent ObiWan - insightful while he's been here, but hasn't posted enough to make me confident | ||
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Even though rsoul wasn't even there, that lynch scenario makes her feel a lot more townie to me. I think that if it were scum v. town we would have seen a lot more animosity on the wagons than what happened-- the rsoul wagon seemed weirdly comfortable with not getting their lynch through, and no one was really questioning what other wagons would be viable. | ||
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VayneAuthority - idk how anyone is TRing him. He was here for a little bit and now he'll miss all of this phase. That's NAI at best. Kurumi - He's almost comically angry. I'm kinda just sheeping Rels on this and Damdred - His reads are really shallow, like "LS obv town" and nothing else. His D1 scumlist also sucked-- 2 plynches, tubesock, and kurumi (the only one who even kinda goes against what people think) [and me but with a disclaimer]. ALSO one time he said there's one scum between me and Tube because of some nonexistent exchange between us. k i'm done now i swear sandroba - Making the same reads as everyone else (when present), but for much worse reasons ObiWanShinobi - he hasn't been present much, but I like the quality of his reads Koshi - people are like "oh angry koshi = town koshi" but his displays of emotion so far have been utterly fakeable Rels - he's been insightful this game and actually has original, non-obvious reads which are hard to fake when you're not looking for something justanothertownie - I don't want to read his filter so I'm just going to say he's being aggressive and leave it at that. ritoky - Either obv town or obv scum and I can't tell which is which sicklucker - Doesn't he on D1 act scummy even as town? If not everyone in Devil Inside Mafia lied to me. Alakaslam - he's a vig Shapelog - He blends in far more than he usually does. Usually when he blends in it's because I'm ignoring all his posts, but this time it's because I don't notice it's him. Even though he has a 7-page filter, it seems he's not putting very much effort into the game. Vivax - he's doing a pretty alright job, y'know? rsoultin - I was really on the fence about this earlier but with Tubesock turning up town I think rsoul is also town. LightningStrike - One time I played with someone who was obvious town in his first game. LS is playing the same way, except it's not his first game. This makes him ??? Superbia - He's attacking the game in unorthodox ways, which I think is townie, if that makes sense. | ||
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On March 27 2016 09:18 LightningStrike wrote: Rels potentially, VA, Vivax +1. Rels usually have a stronger presence as town but activity is nay. VA not really having his usual sharpness(this is a meta read that I borrowing from kushm4sta) and all he did was pretty much complained and didn't do anything outside of that. Vivax fallen off real hard since his big spur of actvity and he is known for lurking as scum. How do you judge sharpness on a player with less than ten posts, most of them meaningless? | ||
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On March 27 2016 09:28 LightningStrike wrote: Usually he would have a super smart post but he havne't did one yet. He's also been completely absent for 90% of the game... | ||
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On March 27 2016 09:53 sandroba wrote: @rsoul if you are town we are in a really bad spot, since I really think you are mafia and multiple people I think are town do as well. Also your assertion that ritoky is scum is getting old and needs to be more substanciated if you are going to insist on it. Honestly this short rebutal post helps with nothing, if you are town you need to be doing a ton of work and shitting rainbows. Probably claiming as well. This post says to me, "rsoul, if you're town, we're lynching you unless you make it unjustifiable." I expect town to approach this from a different standpoint-- not sure how to describe it, maybe more careful? | ||
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On March 27 2016 11:32 sandroba wrote: I mean in rsoul's head she is being outplayed pretty hard by mafia ritoky who is convincing everybody she is scum, yet she doesn't sound emotinal, driven, determined, nothing. She sounds meek and is going to just roll over and die to the scum trying to lynch her. Does not add up honestly. Actually sandroba forget my comment on your push against rsoul I am in full support now. I like when people make cases based on good, non-obvious reasoning because I get two nice reads out of the deal. | ||
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On March 28 2016 05:31 Damdred wrote: So I went and read kur filter a bit more to see maybe he bread crumbed his shot or was implying that he was a vig. And to my eyes he did and it holds up to the flow of his claim/shot. He starts off by warning koshi that if he didn't play normally that kurm would arrange a meeting between the two of them, and his last read post he had koshi as his top scum. I don't think it's super clear cut but the way I'm leaning to last night going was, Scum shoots SL ( uses his power like a boss. Blocks scum shot) Stutters gets show by Sandroba (can only shoot after a town is lynched) Kurm vig shoots koshi (medic saves koshi blocking kp) Final scum kp goes out (is blocked by medic) Rs supposedly receives item from stutters Most of that isn't provable but yeah whatever just writing down what I think. Kinda meh about a few people, Tumble probably is the strangest person to me so far. Soon as I get home I'll show why but some of his posts just seem like he's trying to hard pocket people, and jump on pushes for sort of,meh reasons. Plus he didn't vote yesterday even though he thought tube was Scum ( I think) just didn't care about the lynch. I couldn't pocket someone if I tried at this point in the game... It's weird how the general consensus is that I'm scummy but no one agrees on why or whether to lynch me | ||
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On March 28 2016 13:47 Tictock wrote: Just because I think you are town does not mean I agree with all your reads. Also ... the irony of wanting to lynch me for scum reading "low hanging fruit" >.< (how are Kuru and Rsoul low hanging fruit?) How are kuru and rsoul low hanging fruit? How are kuru and rsoul low hanging fruit? How are the two most pushed still-alive players low hanging fruit? I don't know, you tell me. | ||
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On March 29 2016 03:35 VayneAuthority wrote: going to vote for tumblewood now I think he is the highest chance to flip mafia. If nothing happens im going back to policying rsoultin for circlejerk and added benefit of info. - votes the only wagon that could save Koshi/rsoul - said nothing about me until now - popped out of the woodwork just for this post And I'm opportunistic for my vote? | ||
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On March 29 2016 03:47 ObiWanShinobi wrote: Vivax what do you think of tumblewood and his most recent "lynch both wagons and leave" attitude? I couldn't possibly lynch both wagons. I see a high probability of scum v. scum or svt. Scum can thank me for providing an alternative to lynching their scumbuddy. | ||
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On March 29 2016 03:47 ObiWanShinobi wrote: Vivax what do you think of tumblewood and his most recent "lynch both wagons and leave" attitude? I couldn't possibly lynch both wagons. I see a high probability of scum v. scum or svt. Scum can thank me for providing an alternative to lynching their scumbuddy. | ||
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On March 29 2016 06:41 Damdred wrote: Your going to die why should I switch to someone else? Because I'm town and rsoul is not | ||
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On March 29 2016 06:53 Damdred wrote: Give reads tumble last will Scum team = rsoul, va, tt, one of super and ls Town circle = reps, jat, vivax, everyone on rsoul, and maybe sand, koshi, and you | ||
Tumblewood
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Damdred Vivax Rels Alakaslam/scott31337 Also probably town justanothertownie sandroba sicklucker Shapelog Not lynching ObiWanShinobi ritoky LightningStrike Scum pool 1 Kurumi Koshi Scum pool 2 VayneAuthority rsoultin Superbia On the brink of death, I had one moment of clarity. + Show Spoiler + that was so cheesy | ||
Tumblewood
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Pending is a scum case on VA | ||
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First of all, he spent most of D1 and D2 talking about policy lynching rsoul. There was no reasoning or explanation behind this that I found except that it would give information. That is, until ~4 hours before lynch, when he posted this: On March 29 2016 03:35 VayneAuthority wrote: going to vote for tumblewood now I think he is the highest chance to flip mafia. If nothing happens im going back to policying rsoultin for circlejerk and added benefit of info. Technically, he had scumread me before this? But he never actually backed up any of his reads with a real reason. There's still no reason here: he just thought I had "the highest chance to flip mafia." On March 29 2016 10:09 VayneAuthority wrote: No meaningful interactions with my other scumreads, his post where he says ritoky "is digging himself a hole" like he know ritoky is town and fucking himself over or something, the post where he said he needs to justify why he is going afk is scummy to me, Asking a lot of meaningless questions, he also made one of those stupid readlists with the half scum/half town names and shit just like tictock did. Middle of the line filter length, generally forgettable but smart enough posts to stay undetected. ok look at this list of reasons look at it He had a lot of reasons to choose from to scumread me, and he chose:
I'm not going to make any complaints about his filter, because mine is short too and activity reads suck, but I will point out that he isn't making any decent cases on his scumreads. ##Vote: VayneAuthority | ||
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On March 30 2016 09:54 sandroba wrote: ? I would think a townie would argue here that his questions were not useless? Whose questions? He was talking about my own. I sort of agree that my questions were subpar, especially on D2. That's definitely the thing I most need to improve on in my own play. | ||
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On March 30 2016 10:05 sandroba wrote: @tumble please explain and exemplify your strong town read on rels. Also when you asked those questions didn't you have any intent behind them? Why do you think your questions were subpar? 1. On March 25 2016 06:57 Rels wrote: WOW This is the kind of stuff that ONLY TOWNIES THINK ABOUT Never lynching This is the quote for which I originally read him town. The tone felt off but I liked the content enough to townread him for it, and I believe it still stands. I was looking for more evidence of him being townie but holy shit look at this On March 26 2016 06:40 Rels wrote: I can understand scumreading rsoul but not over tube. Why is he town ? If I see one more post this bad I'm reconsidering. On March 29 2016 08:16 Rels wrote: This is soooo townie. Comparing Kuru's role name with his own. Solving the game. He was already 99% town for shooting someone scum would never shoot and this seals the deal. Tone still off but content still great. He's also asking questions trying to get people to clarify their positions (e.g., "Is this a current read?"), which comes off as town trying to make sure scum can't weasel out of their stances. 2. They were too arbitrary-- I wasn't considering the possible responses as much as the questions, so I wouldn't know why the information would be helpful. | ||
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Kurumi looks like he's having fun More stuff pending after I think about the game | ||
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In other news the sun is hot This day is weird for me. I can't argue about the lynch because the next debatable one is in 3 days and that's a long time to argue. OWS, you said ritoky is "probably not mafia". Do you disagree with Rels' case? (this question goes to anyone TRing ritoky) | ||
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First, the scum points are really detailed and logical, but the town points are all [but one] explained by meta or not at all. I also feel that there were some seriously scummy things in his filter that were overlooked. Of course, our reads won't be identical, but there's more scum points to VA than just his D2 vote. ...Now that I get down to it, I really only disagree on one level, and that level is, "VA is scum and you're wrong." For more explanation on your wrongness, please see the big ol' scum case in my filter. | ||
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On April 02 2016 14:33 ritoky wrote: Tumblewood: this post reads very mafia: he comments later about not understanding why. it is because it does nothing. there's no town motivation to this post. it simply is opportunisticly pushing on a player under pressure. now i am biased cuz it was me, but essentially; you're not furthering the case on me, you're not voting on me, you're not contributing a real point of view or new information, so why make this post? what is there to contribute or gain from making this post? it has no point other than to try and get on the good side of things and ride the current. I am on the fence on this one, it is either very mafia or complete newb: you also didn't understand later why this post can be read mafia i think. the reason is that you're scared. townies, like take me for example, have a certain bravado or confidence about themselves. they know they are town so how could anyone possibly read them as anything but what they are? they speak their minds openly and without fear of the retribution; and when people scum read them most of the time there is a significant emotional response cuz what the fuck are these idiots doing they are obviously town. this post demonstrates that you're scared of being scum read which in essence is a scum mindset. you feel like you need excuses or people will call you scum, but that is a thought that shouldn't even be on a townie's mind. a non-specific note: you use the word insightful a ton...and i believe english is your primary language. being redundant on explaining reads and verbage can be mafia indicative for people, not enough experience with you to make that call. There's a lot wrong with these reads: specifically town leans on 2 confirmed mafia, no stance on me, no town read on jat who was shitting town out of his eyes, and really weird reads on damdred and sandroba....particularly sandroba who i believe had claimed vigi at this point.....but you believed slam's claim easily? that doesn't make a ton of sense. then when you get to your VA case you say this: like what? there are no valid reasons to scum read you if you're town. they're all shit. that line implies there are good reasons out there to scum read you but VA just didn't pick the right ones. that might just be picking on a newb though. dunno i have had really good newbdar recently (not saying you're new necessarily, but new to playing with me)....and it isn't blinking overwhelmingly town here like it has past. what he has going for him is that we shennanied off of him onto mafia...mind you if he is mafia that means 3 of the 4 wagons day 2 were mafia (with koshi being unknown) which is a really good thing. dunno slight mafia lean, would think more mafia but has good vote logic going for him. 1. and 2. Both things I just thought were funny. I was not trying to apply pressure, nor was I scared (if I were scared, I would actually justify my absence). 3. Scum because bad reads? In hindsight, yeah, there were some pretty bad ones in there. 4. Here's a neat trick I learned for this one: Try to imagine what someone else might be thinking. I think that someone else could have reasonably considered some of my posts scummy. IMAGINE THAT | ||
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The reason for my dropoff this cycle is that all the proposed lynches I don't really oppose. Besides me, who are we lynching? Superbia? Ritoky? It's on record that I've been reading those people as scummy since N2, so I don't have much to add that isn't already said. | ||
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VA for reasons detailed earlier + several posts since that case that I will pull up I swear Ritoky because his cases suck and there are a ton of flipped town against him Superbia because his filter is 20 pages of nothing at all | ||
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Tru | ||
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- annoyed that someone responded by making a case checks out | ||
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On April 04 2016 06:26 Superbia wrote: "Let's not read those really townie posts lol" Let's not read those [indeterminately townie or scummy] posts lol | ||
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On April 04 2016 06:33 ritoky wrote: this is the same style opportunistic attempted bury post you had about me earlier...the "ritoky is digging deeper" or w/e style post......they are real bad. Are we getting into the "Tumblewood opportunistic" reads again? Also @Super: I do think you can defeat a scum case on yourself with a rebuttal. | ||
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Because I still really think VA is scummy. | ||
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The game seemed so easy 30 minutes ago | ||
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On April 04 2016 06:55 Damdred wrote: Go to tumble look at him justifying jumping off a town flip in super, only to say he will vote ls to save himself. He doesn't think anyone is scum vote him. "Doesn't think anyone is scum" I tried for VA because he's the only one I feel solid about, but no one agreed. I do want to stay alive-- of course I'd rather LS dies than I do because LS might be scum, maybe. | ||
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Gg | ||
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you're welcome town for that awesome list post I had | ||
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On March 29 2016 12:18 Tumblewood wrote: 100% confirmed town forever Damdred Vivax Rels Alakaslam/scott31337 Also probably town justanothertownie sandroba sicklucker Shapelog Not lynching ObiWanShinobi ritoky LightningStrike Scum pool 1 Kurumi Koshi Scum pool 2 VayneAuthority rsoultin Superbia On the brink of death, I had one moment of clarity. + Show Spoiler + that was so cheesy 100% confirmed town forever: 4/4 correct Also probably town: 2/4 correct (missed Shape because Shape, missed SL because I didn't put 2 and 2 together) Not lynching: 3/3 correct, if you count that as a town pool Scum pool 1: prediction correct, if you count 3P as scum Scum pool 2: same | ||
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I don't know why town lynched a dayvig though, obs QT consensus was Shape as last scum | ||
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