EPTNewbie Student Mafia XX - Page 23
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
The short is that I'm pretty sure Tumbleweed and Gossemerr are mafia. MAFIA Gossemerr's posts are pretty mediocre. I hate his read on Race at #287 and his last post at #390 was classic "let's see what happens". As far as I can see, he hasn't done anything useful. Tumbleweed's entire filter can be summarised as follows: "this person might be mafia, but I'm not sure...". This is classic mafia play. It's so tentative, it's like me every time I try and kiss a girl on a third date. My guess for third mafia is Artanis. I agree with everything Damdred said about Artanis being vocal and yet pointless at the same time. HOWEVER, I'm less sure on this because I'm not sure I see the value in a mafia Artanis leading a shennany on to me so late. NULL BECAUSE TERRIBLE - WOULD LYNCH 2) Kuragari42 3) Spikasaur TOWN PILE Race Bannon is town. Ride or die. His post at #208 was spot on viz boxer. His comment at #265 on Artanis was spot on. He's been active and I've agreed with most of what he's said. DYH is town. He pressured newbies to post early [#180], and I loved his early read on Tumblewood. I think CHODGE is probably also town as well. I'm leaning town on Damdred and GB, but I'm much more certain about Damdred than GB. GB has pretty much just shit-posted / over-thought things. But a lot of people have been pushing him. Damdred mod-confirmed me (accurately!) plus I feel the townie vibes generally. LIGHTNING STRIKE PILE At this point I have demonstrated that I can't even read LS when I'm scum. He and I speak totally different mafia languages. I would definitely vote to lynch him, but I say that every game and I always think I'm right on it. ==================================================== The Newblood 1) Race Bannon #208 early town read on boxer from a newbie, when lots of other people posting, this guy is 100% town #265 comments on Artanis' activity *pops champagne cork* #294 this is so close to the bone, it has to be townie 2) Kuragari42 Is this guy playing? #398 doesn't like lynches 3) Spikasaur #204-#205 "hello" #214 All filler no killer. #390 switches to me for literally zero reason 4) Gossemerr #287 read on Race Bannon. Hmmmm. reasoning is okay but something not quite right about it. #350 okay prevarication read #433 this is garbage "let's see what happens" 5) Fidei86 hehe 6) DoYouHas I like him pressuring Newbies to post. [#180] I like his read on Tumblewood (which I apparently missed in my first read through) The Slightly old Blood 7) LightningStrike #211 Lots of pressuring. #264 town on CHodge, and I think this is townie 8) Artanis[xp] This guy is mafia with Tumblewood [#260] And his early vote on GB is garbage. Starts shennanies on me. Why? I'm confused. 9) Damdred #284 I think this is town Damdred. Also I think he switched off me because he knew my obvious town tells. #298 pings artanis, likes racer, pings GB. Town. 10) boxerfred RIP 11) CHodge #217-#219 wtf. LS and RaceBannon lynches? And Tumblewood? #242 this town read on Goss is garbage but also towny. Tons of reads early. #251 This scum read on GB makes a ton of sense. 12) Tumblewood #193 Gathering reactions a good thing? #197 AHHHHH over analysis, leading into a dead-end of nothingness without conclusions. #253 Town points to CH for reads, but no reads himself #291 more null reads *yawn* #349 okay town points for this not being sure, reads more genuine 13) GlowingBear #313 anyone scum reading BF gets mafia points, but I think this is more just GB overthinking things. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
Damn you racer, this is the only black mark against your otherwise impeccable town credentials. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Tumblewood
United States3709 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On April 07 2016 23:37 Tumblewood wrote: @Goss: You said at the start of the night phase that we needed to look at the flips and that you would post something in an hour or so... Why didn't you post anything? Hey! Rather than prodding a semi-inactive, why not give your thoughts on the WOTs I just posted. I call you out for being Mafia. I'd expect you to have at least something to say on it! | ||
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Tumblewood
United States3709 Posts
On April 07 2016 23:42 Fidei86 wrote: Hey! Rather than prodding a semi-inactive, why not give your thoughts on the WOTs I just posted. I call you out for being Mafia. I'd expect you to have at least something to say on it! Am I just going to not pressure people because they're not active? And sure, I'll comment on your WoTs. I can dig Goss as mafia, but only because of his last post. Your read on me... I totally see why you would think that, but you're wrong. I doubt your Artanis read (didn't you say yesterday that based on the recent interactions he, RB and I were town? What happened to that?), and it seems you do too and it's just an "I need a third scum." I need to go but your RB read is way confident for what we've seen of him. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
Glad to hear I'm wrong on you though. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Gossemerr
United States195 Posts
Thoughts on the last minute flips: we basically had two wagons set up there at the end which ended with boxer lynched. I think it’s fair to assume that 1-2 mafia ended up on boxer (highly doubtful all three would be on it.) So those 4 are: GlowingBear, LightnightStrike, Fidei86, and Damdred. First Fidei: I’m inclined to believe his near death post as truth, had no reason to lie when it look like he was dead. Only case would be if Damdred and him were scheming together with the combo of that (almost town confirming post) and Dam’s super late flip. Cannot read too much into that at this time but it will be good for us to keep in mind moving forward by keeping an eye on both of their actions both independently and when analyzed together. For now I read Fidei86 as town with the above coupled with his great analysis post today. Now GB: I feel his case against Boxer was pretty weak and then he just stopped posting in the thread after he *maybe* thought he would be lynched. Leaning scum to me currently. Would love his thoughts after the ML. GlowingBear maybe mafia LS: Ok right off the bat I liked his anlysis on early analysis on CHodge: + Show Spoiler + On April 06 2016 22:13 LightningStrike wrote: Just woke up and I think CHodge is Town for a few reasons. 1. His approach to the game is quite different than a normal newbie regarding Vet players like myself and Artanis. 2. He been more thinking critically than me and everyone else up to this point. But if you take a look at his filter after that it is literally filled with 1 liners. Asks questions mainly that seem very very uninspired. He is tip-toeing around and not offering any analysis on whom he thinks could be mafia and why. He votes Boxer out of nowhere without analysis. Very scummy IMO. LightningStrike currently lacks inspiring confident posting – my read is likely mafia Finally Damdred: My read is poor on Dam right now. Most of posts do not offer significant analysis. Very wishy-washy at the end of the day with stating multiple lynch candidates. Decides to stay on boxer for unknown reason. Damdred neutral to maybe scum right now Now the peeps on Fidei86: Art, DYH, and Spike: Start with Art whom started this whole wagon shen: On April 07 2016 07:49 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Do we have the people to switch to Fidei? I really actually believe in him being far more likely to start playing dota 2h before deadline and not check in before as scum than as town. So he says this and then stays on Fidei even when Fidei comes back which would be a town trait according to him. Before all of this mess he is pushing GB super hard @ post #260, then suddenly drops it to start the wagon. On April 07 2016 07:10 Artanis[Xp] wrote: I'm also taking full credit when GB flips scum. So maybe I’m reading to much into this because the mixed up did create a lot of activity for later analysis which could have been his plan all along, but I’m currently reading it as a scummy. Artanis is maybe mafia Now DYH: I have no idea. I had scummy vibes coming from early on but that is purely gut. DYH is neutral Spika: pretty absent, maybe anti-town behaviors initially. Spikasaur is maybe mafia based purely on anti-town comments Others: Kuragari42: Like his dislike of the wagons and of the Boxer case by BG On April 07 2016 07:04 Kuragari42 wrote: I'm going to vote GB bc he was who I was leaning scum on earlier today and now he is pushing a BF lynch that I don't see reason behind. Other than that not much to go by, leaning town on Kura Tumblewood: I like his reads and analysis thus far. Seems not afraid to make a case, like with GB, and is willing to put is nickel down. Seems very pro-town to me right now. Tumblewood maybe town CHodge: Pro-town with posts and analysis. Town vibes CHodge maybe town Race still likely mafia based on my before post coupled with lack of activity since. Summary of my reads: Likely Mafia: Race Bannon, LightningStrike Maybe Mafia: Artanis[xp], GlowingBear, Damdred, Spikasaur No Clue: Kuragari42, DoYouHas Maybe Town: CHodge, Tumblewood Likely Town: Fidei86 | ||
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Tumblewood
United States3709 Posts
On April 07 2016 22:09 Fidei86 wrote: Okay, it took my whole lunch break, but I have read through the thread. I'll post my entire notes at the bottom, as I don't have time to fully post before I have to start working again. The short is that I'm pretty sure Tumbleweed and Gossemerr are mafia. MAFIA Gossemerr's posts are pretty mediocre. I hate his read on Race at #287 and his last post at #390 was classic "let's see what happens". As far as I can see, he hasn't done anything useful. Tumbleweed's entire filter can be summarised as follows: "this person might be mafia, but I'm not sure...". This is classic mafia play. It's so tentative, it's like me every time I try and kiss a girl on a third date. My guess for third mafia is Artanis. I agree with everything Damdred said about Artanis being vocal and yet pointless at the same time. HOWEVER, I'm less sure on this because I'm not sure I see the value in a mafia Artanis leading a shennany on to me so late. NULL BECAUSE TERRIBLE - WOULD LYNCH 2) Kuragari42 3) Spikasaur TOWN PILE Race Bannon is town. Ride or die. His post at #208 was spot on viz boxer. His comment at #265 on Artanis was spot on. He's been active and I've agreed with most of what he's said. DYH is town. He pressured newbies to post early [#180], and I loved his early read on Tumblewood. I think CHODGE is probably also town as well. I'm leaning town on Damdred and GB, but I'm much more certain about Damdred than GB. GB has pretty much just shit-posted / over-thought things. But a lot of people have been pushing him. Damdred mod-confirmed me (accurately!) plus I feel the townie vibes generally. LIGHTNING STRIKE PILE At this point I have demonstrated that I can't even read LS when I'm scum. He and I speak totally different mafia languages. I would definitely vote to lynch him, but I say that every game and I always think I'm right on it. ==================================================== The Newblood 1) Race Bannon #208 early town read on boxer from a newbie, when lots of other people posting, this guy is 100% town #265 comments on Artanis' activity *pops champagne cork* #294 this is so close to the bone, it has to be townie 2) Kuragari42 Is this guy playing? #398 doesn't like lynches 3) Spikasaur #204-#205 "hello" #214 All filler no killer. #390 switches to me for literally zero reason 4) Gossemerr #287 read on Race Bannon. Hmmmm. reasoning is okay but something not quite right about it. #350 okay prevarication read #433 this is garbage "let's see what happens" 5) Fidei86 hehe 6) DoYouHas I like him pressuring Newbies to post. [#180] I like his read on Tumblewood (which I apparently missed in my first read through) The Slightly old Blood 7) LightningStrike #211 Lots of pressuring. #264 town on CHodge, and I think this is townie 8) Artanis[xp] This guy is mafia with Tumblewood [#260] And his early vote on GB is garbage. Starts shennanies on me. Why? I'm confused. 9) Damdred #284 I think this is town Damdred. Also I think he switched off me because he knew my obvious town tells. #298 pings artanis, likes racer, pings GB. Town. 10) boxerfred RIP 11) CHodge #217-#219 wtf. LS and RaceBannon lynches? And Tumblewood? #242 this town read on Goss is garbage but also towny. Tons of reads early. #251 This scum read on GB makes a ton of sense. 12) Tumblewood #193 Gathering reactions a good thing? #197 AHHHHH over analysis, leading into a dead-end of nothingness without conclusions. #253 Town points to CH for reads, but no reads himself #291 more null reads *yawn* #349 okay town points for this not being sure, reads more genuine 13) GlowingBear #313 anyone scum reading BF gets mafia points, but I think this is more just GB overthinking things. Going to go through each of the people you have listed now that I have time. 1) You're drawing a super confident townread out of thin air here. #208 spot on? This was #208: On April 05 2016 22:13 Race Bannon wrote: #294 was also way unimpressive for a "has to be townie" comment. RB is also guilty of first-degree dodging questions. I think there is one scum among you and RB because of how strong and unfounded this townread is.Leaning town on boxer and GlowingBear for their confident opening. 2) "could lynch because inactive" meh 3) ^ 4) I agree with the scumread on Gossemerr, but only because of this post: On April 07 2016 10:55 Gossemerr wrote: This post is so bad. It says nothing of value but looks like activity at first glance, except he never even followed up on what he said. It seems that that was not the main basis of your read.OK so that last minute flip fest was interesting. Going to read and post my thoughts in a bit. I think we need to look at who flipped and why. 5) You are not cleared in my mind 6) You have a throwaway read on him and so do I 7) ^ 8) I think your reaction to his shenanny on you was weird. Seems like you'd find that scummy and not townie. 9) Town because mindmeld... I can buy it. 11) Do you have a conclusion to draw from having a ton of reads early? I found it townie because he wasn't afraid to be 'out there'. 12) null reads = scum... fair enough, that's how I played in Newbies and Vets (but then, I replaced in for MyLo and had a partner who voted for me) Why is #349, them, townie for not being sure? 13) This read makes no sense. GB scum read BF (which you find scummy), but it's OK because "he was just overthinking it", even though there was no indication of him overthinking it. | ||
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Tumblewood
United States3709 Posts
scum leans RB, GB top town reads CHodge, Damdred town lean on LS null on art and DYH no read on Kura and Spike because they've done nothing yet | ||
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Gossemerr
United States195 Posts
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Tumblewood
United States3709 Posts
On April 08 2016 02:55 Gossemerr wrote: Also Fiedei: third date bro? Step it up earlier haha. Hey, since you're here, can you please answer my question as to why you never followed up on flip analysis? | ||
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Gossemerr
United States195 Posts
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Tumblewood
United States3709 Posts
I thought that was Fidei's WoT reading now | ||
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Tumblewood
United States3709 Posts
Reconsidering my scum read on Gossemerr | ||
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