Newbie Student Mafia XX - Page 24

On April 08 2016 03:18 Gossemerr wrote:
Hey Tumble why do you have such a strong read on Fidei? - I agree that he is not cleared, but it seems like you are reading him strongly scum through only disagreeing with his analysis?

On April 08 2016 02:27 Gossemerr wrote:
OK, I agree my last post was definitely was poor form as a townie. Was really confused by the sudden flips and made a rash post before realizing I was tired and just went to bed. But I’ll make up for it here with the reads I promised. Also not going to comment in length about my choice to vote Race, I set out my D1 read and stuck to it.

Thoughts on the last minute flips: we basically had two wagons set up there at the end which ended with boxer lynched. I think it’s fair to assume that 1-2 mafia ended up on boxer (highly doubtful all three would be on it.) So those 4 are: GlowingBear, LightnightStrike, Fidei86, and Damdred.

First Fidei: I’m inclined to believe his near death post as truth, had no reason to lie when it look like he was dead. Only case would be if Damdred and him were scheming together with the combo of that (almost town confirming post) and Dam’s super late flip. Cannot read too much into that at this time but it will be good for us to keep in mind moving forward by keeping an eye on both of their actions both independently and when analyzed together.

For now I read Fidei86 as town with the above coupled with his great analysis post today.

Now GB: I feel his case against Boxer was pretty weak and then he just stopped posting in the thread after he *maybe* thought he would be lynched. Leaning scum to me currently. Would love his thoughts after the ML.
GlowingBear maybe mafia

LS: Ok right off the bat I liked his anlysis on early analysis on CHodge:
+ Show Spoiler +
But if you take a look at his filter after that it is literally filled with 1 liners. Asks questions mainly that seem very very uninspired. He is tip-toeing around and not offering any analysis on whom he thinks could be mafia and why. He votes Boxer out of nowhere without analysis. Very scummy IMO.
LightningStrike currently lacks inspiring confident posting – my read is likely mafia

Finally Damdred: My read is poor on Dam right now. Most of posts do not offer significant analysis. Very wishy-washy at the end of the day with stating multiple lynch candidates. Decides to stay on boxer for unknown reason.
Damdred neutral to maybe scum right now

Now the peeps on Fidei86: Art, DYH, and Spike:

Start with Art whom started this whole wagon shen:

So he says this and then stays on Fidei even when Fidei comes back which would be a town trait according to him. Before all of this mess he is pushing GB super hard @ post #260, then suddenly drops it to start the wagon.

So maybe I’m reading to much into this because the mixed up did create a lot of activity for later analysis which could have been his plan all along, but I’m currently reading it as a scummy.
Artanis is maybe mafia

Now DYH: I have no idea. I had scummy vibes coming from early on but that is purely gut.
DYH is neutral

Spika: pretty absent, maybe anti-town behaviors initially.
Spikasaur is maybe mafia based purely on anti-town comments

Others:
Kuragari42: Like his dislike of the wagons and of the Boxer case by BG

Other than that not much to go by, leaning town on Kura

Tumblewood: I like his reads and analysis thus far. Seems not afraid to make a case, like with GB, and is willing to put is nickel down. Seems very pro-town to me right now.
Tumblewood maybe town

CHodge: Pro-town with posts and analysis. Town vibes
CHodge maybe town

Race still likely mafia based on my before post coupled with lack of activity since.

Summary of my reads:
Likely Mafia:
Race Bannon, LightningStrike
Maybe Mafia:
Artanis[xp], GlowingBear, Damdred, Spikasaur
No Clue:
Kuragari42, DoYouHas
Maybe Town:
CHodge, Tumblewood
Likely Town:
Fidei86

On April 07 2016 22:09 Fidei86 wrote:
Okay, it took my whole lunch break, but I have read through the thread. I'll post my entire notes at the bottom, as I don't have time to fully post before I have to start working again.

The short is that I'm pretty sure Tumbleweed and Gossemerr are mafia.

MAFIA

Gossemerr's posts are pretty mediocre. I hate his read on Race at #287 and his last post at #390 was classic "let's see what happens". As far as I can see, he hasn't done anything useful.

Tumbleweed's entire filter can be summarised as follows: "this person might be mafia, but I'm not sure...". This is classic mafia play. It's so tentative, it's like me every time I try and kiss a girl on a third date.

My guess for third mafia is Artanis. I agree with everything Damdred said about Artanis being vocal and yet pointless at the same time. HOWEVER, I'm less sure on this because I'm not sure I see the value in a mafia Artanis leading a shennany on to me so late.

NULL BECAUSE TERRIBLE - WOULD LYNCH

2) Kuragari42
3) Spikasaur

TOWN PILE

Race Bannon is town. Ride or die. His post at #208 was spot on viz boxer. His comment at #265 on Artanis was spot on. He's been active and I've agreed with most of what he's said.

DYH is town. He pressured newbies to post early [#180], and I loved his early read on Tumblewood.

I think CHODGE is probably also town as well.

I'm leaning town on Damdred and GB, but I'm much more certain about Damdred than GB. GB has pretty much just shit-posted / over-thought things. But a lot of people have been pushing him. Damdred mod-confirmed me (accurately!) plus I feel the townie vibes generally.

LIGHTNING STRIKE PILE

At this point I have demonstrated that I can't even read LS when I'm scum. He and I speak totally different mafia languages. I would definitely vote to lynch him, but I say that every game and I always think I'm right on it.

====================================================

The Newblood
1) Race Bannon
#208 early town read on boxer from a newbie, when lots of other people posting, this guy is 100% town
#265 comments on Artanis' activity *pops champagne cork*
#294 this is so close to the bone, it has to be townie

2) Kuragari42
Is this guy playing?
#398 doesn't like lynches

3) Spikasaur
#204-#205 "hello"
#214 All filler no killer.
#390 switches to me for literally zero reason

4) Gossemerr
#287 read on Race Bannon. Hmmmm. reasoning is okay but something not quite right about it.
#350 okay prevarication read
#433 this is garbage "let's see what happens"

5) Fidei86 hehe

6) DoYouHas
I like him pressuring Newbies to post. [#180]
I like his read on Tumblewood (which I apparently missed in my first read through)

The Slightly old Blood

7) LightningStrike
#211 Lots of pressuring.
#264 town on CHodge, and I think this is townie

8) Artanis[xp]
This guy is mafia with Tumblewood [#260]
And his early vote on GB is garbage.
Starts shennanies on me. Why? I'm confused.

9) Damdred
#284 I think this is town Damdred. Also I think he switched off me because he knew my obvious town tells.
#298 pings artanis, likes racer, pings GB. Town.

10) boxerfred
RIP

11) CHodge
#217-#219 wtf. LS and RaceBannon lynches? And Tumblewood?
#242 this town read on Goss is garbage but also towny.
Tons of reads early.
#251 This scum read on GB makes a ton of sense.

12) Tumblewood
#193 Gathering reactions a good thing?
#197 AHHHHH over analysis, leading into a dead-end of nothingness without conclusions.
#253 Town points to CH for reads, but no reads himself
#291 more null reads *yawn*
#349 okay town points for this not being sure, reads more genuine

13) GlowingBear
#313 anyone scum reading BF gets mafia points, but I think this is more just GB overthinking things.

On April 08 2016 03:33 Fidei86 wrote:
LS trying to rationalise posting all one liners.
Dani and Tina are laughing their asses of at us, somewhere.

On April 08 2016 03:39 Fidei86 wrote:
Laughing at me because I'm pretty sure your alignment is mega obvious, I just can't read you for shit.

On April 08 2016 03:18 Gossemerr wrote:
Hey Tumble why do you have such a strong read on Fidei? - I agree that he is not cleared, but it seems like you are reading him strongly scum through only disagreeing with his analysis?

On April 08 2016 03:18 Fidei86 wrote:
Fourth date this evening. I'll let y'all know how it goes.

On April 08 2016 04:58 Race Bannon wrote:

Don't let your dreams be dreams.

On April 08 2016 05:09 Tumblewood wrote:
Lol LS quoting an entire WoT and only commenting on a single line of it... is that all you have to say?

On April 08 2016 05:06 LightningStrike wrote:

So Just Do It!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXsQAXx_ao0
But seriously though RB what you think of James(fideii) WoT?

On April 07 2016 09:25 Race Bannon wrote:

Determinism? What's your point?