Shin Megami Tensei: The Devil Inside Mafia - Page 86

Side note: That was also the only game I got GB's alignment correct
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Several of Tumblewood's posts feel very genuine.
However, Tumblewood doesn't go out of his way to provide his own thoughts. It feels weird that Tumblewood is complaining about the thread activity and says he doesn't have reads, and then when asked, says that he "only" has real insight on eight people. This makes sense from town if Tumblewood is generally cautious with his reads and only shares things he is certain of (note that if Tumblewood is town, this is his first game as town).

Basically, if Tumblewood is town, I expect to see a lot of confidence in his reads (at least the ones that he is clear about) going forward. I also expect him to be hesitant to share weaker reads, or at least clear about which reads he's not so sure about.

Tumblewood does say that Palmar could be scum as easily as town in post 310, and has him as a scum lean in post 385. Palmar made one post in between:So I expect Tumblewood's explanation of this read change to be related to this post, or implications because of this post.

It does feel like Tumblewood generated his reads list out of nowhere, he didn't explain them at all. And there's minimal-no followup on sicklucker, his primary scumread. Tumblewood's read reversal on Palmar to "bad lynch" feels somewhat weird, but this does make sense.

Tumblewood's top lynches Day 1 were sicklucker and Shapelog, which makes sense given his progression on both of them. However, his push on Shapelog was potentially opportunistic. Tumblewood left Shapelog as a null in his list post, and then later started comparing Shapelog's play to his scum play. I'm not sure if this is opportunistic or has justification, this would require more energy to check, so I'll wait until later to see if this is necessary.

Tumblewood ends up voting for Palmar because he can't see any other wagon being lynched over Palmar. Which doesn't really make much sense. But it was town vs town. Reserving judgement on this for now.

Tumblewood's written reads end up with Shapelog, sicklucker, and GlowingBear as the scum list. I really don't feel that mafia would be pushing Shapelog here? Shapelog claimed blue, and I'd expect people in the mafia QT to be reasonably sure that Shapelog is blue (they roleblocked him, after all), this paranoia feels more towny. The read on GlowingBear also feels early and genuine; how much does he actually push this on Day 2, though?

Tumblewood later explains his vote on Palmar as an attempt to not be a policy lynch on a low-activity player. Hrm. Still reserving judgement, this is a difficult point for me to think through.

Tumblewood barely played at all on Day 2... ended up being the last vote on GlowingBear. Day 1 ended on the 17th, Day 2 is 18th-20th. All that Tumblewood really did in this day until the 30 minutes before the deadline is him doubting his GlowingBear scumread, and then saying never mind. However, once Tumblewood comes back, he answers GlowingBear's question about who is mafia if he isn't, which feels like a really weird thing for mafia to do here (mafia would want to take bus credit, not honestly talk to their scumbuddy who is about to die).

I find it weird that Breshke and I (Trfel) had similar reactions to the flip (not reading the last ~7 pages of the day), but Tumblewood commented on this as suspicious for Breshke and didn't mention me. I know that Tumblewood was strongly townreading me early on, but it feels weird that he would comment on some suspicious things that I did (voting for scott31337 day 1) and not others (not reading 5 pages).

Tumblewood's vote for scott31337 makes sense, and the way he approaches POE makes sense as well.

Tictock opened by saying that sicklucker's first few posts felt like he was posting just to post, but didn't really follow up on this. Sicklucker started pushing Eden for setup speculation, but Tictock entirely ignored it.
This probably isn't important, but I think it would be funny if this is mafia!Tictock yelling at his drunk scumbuddy to shut up before getting them all caught

Tictock criticizes Tumblewood a few times for complaining about the day being boring, and gives Tumblewood a few suggestions of things to talk about, but doesn't follow up very aggressively. Maybe I'm making something out of nothing.

Going into End of Day 1, Tictock was fairly active and present, and while he's been very relaxed, I don't feel him doing too much. Here are his substantial reads:
Eden town, Trfel town, Shapelog town, Palmar town (sheeping Trfel), some suspicion of Tumblewood for doing nothing, but also says that he doesn't see mafia motivation behind Tumblewood's play, citing an earlier post

Then he makes this post about GlowingBear being town for putting in less effort in his scum games than his town games. Tictock's complete lack of followup on sicklucker is suspicious, I don't see how he goes from "sicklucker's post is the only interesting thing in the thread" to "I don't have any thoughts on sicklucker until I read his filter". If it's interesting, wouldn't he investigate it? And when nooniansoong questions Tictock's read on GlowingBear, Tictock responds by saying that he's bad at reading GlowingBear, instead of talking about the read itself.

Tictock says he's suspicious of Shapelog, then comes back here and completely leaves Shapelog off of his list. This was before Shapelog claimed his role. He didn't discuss his lack of suspicion on Shapelog, either, despite Shapelog being heavily suspected at this time, which would presumably have been a priority. The post also lists Breshke as a town lean, which doesn't seem to match what appears to be a strong town read on Breshke earlier.

Tictock provides a filter analysis of sicklucker explaining why he votes for him. Tictock doesn't see any mafia motivation from scott31337 or nooniansoong, but says he's very unimpressed by GlowingBear's posts, so he could policy lynch him. I'm not sure why he could be willing to policy lynch GlowingBear but not scott31337 here? I'm pretty sure I asked Tictock about this, but my memory is lousy, so I'll see where this comes up again later.

This post feels quite towny from Tictock. It feels like he's actually trying to work out what alignment people are, instead of what alignment he wants them to seem. It also is right after the lynch, where people have nearly 72 hours to forget what you did before potentially lynching you. However, Tictock's switch onto Palmar is a bit suspect, maybe he was trying to make up for this error? Either way, this is towny thought process after an unexplained vote.

In the above post, Tictock says that GlowingBear and The Shining are more likely town for voting off-wagon. Then, here he says that the off wagon votes are more likely mafia. The post also includes a large "tinfoil" section about scott31337 being mafia. This feels towny to me, because the end post seems to be not what he intended, which feels natural and towny. But the conclusions are weird.

At this time, Tictock's been thinking about the game in two perspectives: scott31337 being scum and town.
Initially, he was thinking that scott31337 is town because of the spread votes and crazy EoD. Then, he created this tinfoil theory that started out by if scott31337 is scum, what would that mean? He concluded that Tumblewood, scott31337, and nooniansoong is a sensible scum team and he wanted to start with Tumblewood.

The weird thing here is that it starts completely from an assumption. Not an assumption that he has no input on, but an assumption where he's already claimed the opposite to be true. And instead of starting with the basis of said assumption, he wants to start by lynching someone else. He later clarifies that this tinfoil post is the majority of the basis for his scumread on Tumblewood.

I don't understand how Tictock can say things like this to GlowingBear but still not want to lynch him, and lynch Tumblewood instead, despite being so unsure about scott?

Tictock ends up being the fifth vote on GlowingBear, after focusing so much on Tumblewood being mafia. And it feels like Tictock is more convinced in Tumblewood being mafia than GlowingBear, but votes for GlowingBear anyway.

Then, after GlowingBear flipped mafia, Tictock went back to his read of scott being town due to GlowingBear voting off-wagon. And he says that he's not so sure about Tumblewood any more because his last few posts were a bit better (also presumably because no more association with scott?)

I don't really see Tictock's later Day 3 from a town perspective. He goes from "nooniansoong is mafia! Tumblewood is mafia! Scott31337 feels like town but I guess he might be mafia (???)!" to "I'm probably wrong and scott's going to flip mafia and I'm going to be autolynched tomorrow but I don't care"

Upon closer analysis, Tictock's Day 1 makes more sense than I thought. When he initially said that he was willing to lynch GlowingBear but not scott31337, scott31337 did have more content than GlowingBear, even if barely. And closer to the deadline, he said he was willing to lynch both.

kinda awful way to meta considering GB had a pre-game excuse for low activity that would not have been effected by alignment, and one scum game is hardly enough to call it "meta", but awful doesn't necessarily equal mafia.

stating the obvious, but maybe early enough to be relevant?

could believe it

fair...it was pretty @.@

on closer inspection it does seem like there were more reasons in favor of GB being scum, even if they were only small reasons...feels genuine, especially since scum lining up for the buss would probably go out of their way to be more definitive about it. prob too late in the phase to be angling to slide off the wagon

reasonable

also reasonable

closing the door on a flipped read came early with the scott and GB wagons tied up...town points

mindmeld, town points

nh

power of suggestion or prior knowledge? that's awfully coincidental lol ><

i can understand the confusion on the claim, but the lack of a stance still gives me pause in that if this was a play to get townread (and it seems like there can't be many other possible reasons for it) the wait and see approach is in line with scum motivation

less town points cause no reason, but still some town points

ballsy for scum, though of course he's not locked in

speaks for itself

ballsy for scum to do with a scum RB

still self-evident

lol at this point i'm thinking of not even continuing this. if noon is ever scum with gb in this game he's hard-bussing the shit out of him for no reason all game

nh

convenient

okay

you were beginning to make me uber paranoid there truffle wuffle >>

problem here is the second post comes about 10-15 mins later after no real response to his meta reason @.@ truuuuuffle

or is it a genius place for mafia to hide!

I still think it would be amazing if Kush and GB did double bus and Kush is playing this like a champ.

It is a bold move from a scum!Kush to push Shape to claim and then insta-vote his scummate when he does. The way Kush was pushing Shape to claim was pretty weird though.

I honestly feel like GB's play makes no sense this game unless he basically wanted to be lynched, which highly suggests a big bus play like that to me.

Atm I see no reason why a GB/Kush/Tumble team is impossible, but I haven't really looked into associations here.