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On February 25 2016 05:38 Trfel wrote:
And yeah, to be honest I stand by my earlier comment of Breshke not having as insightful comments or following them up as well as I might have expected.
Breshke definitely hasn't been bad, he's been good, just not up to his best level as town. Of course this doesn't make him mafia, but I don't feel it's a good reason to townread him for this alone.
I do feel that nooniansoong's scumread on GlowingBear is strongly town indicative, but not 100%. There are a few tonal things that make me think he is town, off the top of my head one of them is when he was hoping that scott31337 and GlowingBear aren't mafia together (so that the game wouldn't be too easy), but nowhere near as many as I remembered last game. Maybe he could be mafia here, even if it's unlikely, I'll take a look later (especially with a no-lynch to get extra time).
For what it's worth, I think rsoultin is town? But the worth of this read is zero, so yeah. Saving for last.
rofl >< if noon is scum here i've fallen for gb's gambit twice. which is probably why it bugs me, cause i know gb has done the hard double-buss thing before
nh...i dunnae if i'm in favor of a no-lynch tbh, but that's just for personal, once the school week starts up i'm not gonna have any time again, reasons...lol, well, that and all it takes is one wrong townie in a pool already pretty uncertain with 5 players...at least with 6 the town still has the voting advantage
alternatively, it could mean i get nk'd before i have to make a fool of myself trying to lynch the "least townie" scum lol >< so i don't really have a strong opinion on it ^^
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Haha, TL Mafia basically never uses three blue setups. The latest one I remember was masons + 1-shot cop. Aka, three really weak blues. And since it's no-lynch allowed, not no-shoot, it's almost certainly two-blue setup.
Rsoultin, weren't you scumreading nooniansoong a few days back? What happened to that? What about Tumblewood, weren't you calling my townread of Tumblewood stupid?
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On February 25 2016 05:45 Trfel wrote:
Haha, TL Mafia basically never uses three blue setups. The latest one I remember was masons + 1-shot cop. Aka, three really weak blues. And since it's no-lynch allowed, not no-shoot, it's almost certainly two-blue setup.
Rsoultin, weren't you scumreading nooniansoong a few days back? What happened to that? What about Tumblewood, weren't you calling my townread of Tumblewood stupid?
lol gb flipped? + Show Spoiler +it was actually how he reacted to my one post >> kinda flippant but still trying to calm me down. not sure how to explain that and it's probably just pure bias, but whatever
i still don't think that your reasons are good enough for the hard townread you've had on tumble all game, but i have to grudgingly admit you're probably right >> just given the game state
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On February 25 2016 05:42 The Shining wrote:
Town
Rso Trfel
Probably noon
Maybe Tumble
Lynch Bresh or TT.
We honestly probably have a third blue, it just makes sense. Watcher is a weak role, especially with Lucifer role and having a scum rb on top of that means there's probably a vet roaming around somewhere. You should probably claim in lylo after I die, especially if you're being lynched. If you are a vet, know that scum wont waste a shot on you and there's no rb so there's only good that can come from you claiming.
If I die GL town
>> i like that we're seeing the same game but i have to ask, shining...did you get a chance to really look at things or is this all off the cuff?
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I've been keeping up with the entire game, I've just been slammed by work and school and not being allowed to use my phone at work anymore. Why's it matter?
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On February 25 2016 05:49 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 25 2016 05:45 Trfel wrote:
Haha, TL Mafia basically never uses three blue setups. The latest one I remember was masons + 1-shot cop. Aka, three really weak blues. And since it's no-lynch allowed, not no-shoot, it's almost certainly two-blue setup.
Rsoultin, weren't you scumreading nooniansoong a few days back? What happened to that? What about Tumblewood, weren't you calling my townread of Tumblewood stupid? lol gb flipped? + Show Spoiler +it was actually how he reacted to my one post >> kinda flippant but still trying to calm me down. not sure how to explain that and it's probably just pure bias, but whatever i still don't think that your reasons are good enough for the hard townread you've had on tumble all game, but i have to grudgingly admit you're probably right >> just given the game state The game state? What do you mean?
Anyway, here's one example of the kind of thing that makes me think that Tictock is scum.
Tinfoil post saying he wants to lynch Tumblewood, @4:36 EST
[lots of commenting]
[more commenting]
[some reads but nothing pointed]
Voting for who he thought was scum last night (Tumblewood), @22:02 EST
So, a bit over 17 hours later, after a ton of commenting on things, he votes for the same person as he thought before, for the exact same reasons?
Things to check:
1. How much did Tictock push Tumblewood relative to the wagon on GlowingBear? Did he throw out a read and not talk about it much while the GlowingBear wagon wasn't there, or was this after the GlowingBear wagon was already going? If the former, it's suspicious how his activity with regards to this push increased later.
2. Why didn't Tumblewood push any of the other lynches as much as he did the Tumblewood wagon? He seemed to be making a fuss over this, which I definitely don't remember him making Day 1 (would have thought he'd want to lynch sicklucker) or Day 3 (not lynching scott, lynching Tumble isntead). It's a bit hard for me to tell if he actually was trying to defend scott or not, but maybe comparing his push on Tumble D2 and the defense of scott D3 shows something.
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TT was my scum read d1, though I forgot him cuz of GB claim. Breshkes vote looked horrible. And TT did nothing really to deserve Me dropping my read on him
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On February 25 2016 05:56 The Shining wrote:
I've been keeping up with the entire game, I've just been slammed by work and school and not being allowed to use my phone at work anymore. Why's it matter?
cause i wanted to know how much weight to put on it, given your late game reads are usually very good lol >< thanks for indulging me
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On February 25 2016 05:57 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On February 25 2016 05:49 rsoultin wrote:On February 25 2016 05:45 Trfel wrote:
Haha, TL Mafia basically never uses three blue setups. The latest one I remember was masons + 1-shot cop. Aka, three really weak blues. And since it's no-lynch allowed, not no-shoot, it's almost certainly two-blue setup.
Rsoultin, weren't you scumreading nooniansoong a few days back? What happened to that? What about Tumblewood, weren't you calling my townread of Tumblewood stupid? lol gb flipped? + Show Spoiler +it was actually how he reacted to my one post >> kinda flippant but still trying to calm me down. not sure how to explain that and it's probably just pure bias, but whatever i still don't think that your reasons are good enough for the hard townread you've had on tumble all game, but i have to grudgingly admit you're probably right >> just given the game state The game state? What do you mean? Anyway, here's one example of the kind of thing that makes me think that Tictock is scum. Tinfoil post saying he wants to lynch Tumblewood, @4:36 EST [lots of commenting] [more commenting] [some reads but nothing pointed] Voting for who he thought was scum last night (Tumblewood), @22:02 EST So, a bit over 17 hours later, after a ton of commenting on things, he votes for the same person as he thought before, for the exact same reasons? Things to check: 1. How much did Tictock push Tumblewood relative to the wagon on GlowingBear? Did he throw out a read and not talk about it much while the GlowingBear wagon wasn't there, or was this after the GlowingBear wagon was already going? If the former, it's suspicious how his activity with regards to this push increased later. 2. Why didn't Tumblewood push any of the other lynches as much as he did the Tumblewood wagon? He seemed to be making a fuss over this, which I definitely don't remember him making Day 1 (would have thought he'd want to lynch sicklucker) or Day 3 (not lynching scott, lynching Tumble isntead). It's a bit hard for me to tell if he actually was trying to defend scott or not, but maybe comparing his push on Tumble D2 and the defense of scott D3 shows something.
nh, just that it's hard for me to see tumble with either of the other two? shitty association, i know ^^ i feel his thought process on his reads are direct and fairly clean but it's just so minimal and in some cases pretty surface level that i have a hard time understanding a strong townread on him
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Hold please, flip incoming.
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Day 4
The Shining the Heat turned up dead as a rug.
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o.0 are rugs particularly dead?
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So, I realized that no-lynching might not be the best idea, because I screwed up my planning and might not actually be able to really play the last day as it is 
If anyone would like to no-lynch, maybe that could work, and I can try my best to avoid a modkill for inactivity, but if both rsoultin and I are better with lynching, I'd kinda prefer that.
GG The Shining.
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well, i thought we might get an interesting flip just cause shining's been so absent, but :/
anyway, i'm gonna finish up the schoolwork i need to have done for tomorrow
today could actually be quite fun if we lynch ^^ -bounces-
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So, to finish what I started in this post.
Much of what Tictock posted about his suspicion of Tumblewood was actually reactive. He responded to townreads that I posted about Tumblewood and ways that his read was directly questioned. His tone towards the Tumblewood lynch and the force with which he pushes it changes here, once it starts feeling like GlowingBear will be lynched.
And while his push on Tumblewood was of moderate involvement, his defense of scott and push onto Tumblewood on Day 3 seems almost nonexistant.
This strongly suggests that Tictock is mafia.
Thoughts? Did I mess up? I feel like End of Night disrupted my thought process a bit is the logic sensible?
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Like, it's not that Tictock hasn't been helpful. It's not that he's really done stuff that town couldn't do.
It's just that his play fits mafia motivation very nicely. With his read on GlowingBear, with his push on Tumblewood. See how the strength of these vary over time, compare to the thread sentiment and mafia's goals at that time. See how his interactivity vs case-style analysis varies over time.
##vote Tictock
Going to go with this for now at least, before I doubt myself again.
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On February 25 2016 07:16 nooniansoong wrote:
hmm why tt over breshke? I'm more confident in Tictock being mafia.
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EPT
