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Newbie Student Mafia XVIII - Page 20

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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TheCow
Profile Joined December 2015
Canada24 Posts
December 30 2015 01:09 GMT
#381
Correct, those are my current leans -- scum, town, town, null, null, scum respectively.
mderg
Profile Joined April 2011
Germany1740 Posts
December 30 2015 01:13 GMT
#382
Time for some sleep. I'm not sure what to think about Kmatt, gonna think about that until I'm back here.
Kmatt
Profile Joined July 2011
United States1019 Posts
December 30 2015 01:15 GMT
#383
On December 30 2015 10:03 TheCow wrote:
1) Kmatt appears to be sort of inconsistent with his stances in a way which -- in my eyes -- suggests he's playing in a opportunistic manner. First example: Posts 187 and 192.


Since this is my first Mafia game, yes, I am looking to other posts to see what I can contribute to the thread. I don't know what post 192 has to do with me (I'll assume it's a typo).

2) The appearance of minor [active lurking] in that I cannot see many definitive stances, contention points, or general conviction in his filter.
I elaborated on this earlier, and I still don't believe I have enough evidence to incriminate anyone. Even my GiygaS vote is based on posting activity rather than content. If some people who aren't ShapeLog or trying to get me killed would post I would have a much easier time with this.

3) Flimsy accusations where they exist (Kmatt->GB, Kmatt->Onegu).
Again, like with GiygaS, my only gripe against GB was his attitude rather than his arguments or contents (and for now I've dropped those suspicions). As for Onegu, I actually forgot he's in this game. Like I griped above, the posting activity is minimal while I'm online so I've got jack to work with. I never accused him of being scum, just that I wished he would post something of substance.
We CAN have nice things
nooniansoong
Profile Joined December 2015
1538 Posts
December 30 2015 01:17 GMT
#384
I thought it was an emoticon
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
December 30 2015 01:21 GMT
#385
Reading and catching up.

On December 30 2015 01:15 Shapelog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 30 2015 00:36 NocturneMage wrote:
Shapelog, any opinion (given your last on Onegu) on his vote on Fidei?

And that crossed out statement, are you inferring that could be another reason for mderg to be scum from your perspective?


Onegu does whatever Onegu does. He expects everyone to follow him IMO like he is town jesus. Onegu could honestly mean to vote Fidei based off of no explanation or lack of explanation. When he was smurfing he was quite aggressive last game.

But if i was to take off the meta glasses of mislynchs, I see either a horrible pressure vote or a troll vote IMO. I mean im guessing the "how about this" was to draw out a reaction of sorts.

No the [S] was because i was being too trolololoing. Idc if he has problems with my playstyle (or hopefully my old play style). His opinion is his opinion

And no i wasn't Afk, i went to grab my grits and it takes me a bit of time to type due to me misspelling every word and having to go back and retype it.


This is really hard to tell at first, probably a troll vote, seeing Onegu's filter, also that Fidei has posted after that troll vote and has done nothing and Onegu in resurfacing isn't doing anything with the reaction so it's definitely not pressure I would say. Onegu not making anything of it is null at best, although trolling is something I would associate more with scum.

The afk comment btw, was in reference to myself going afk, though, not you.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
December 30 2015 01:26 GMT
#386
On December 29 2015 20:17 Fidei86 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 29 2015 18:32 mderg wrote:
Meh, reading this thread is difficult when you don't know most of those names.

People are quick to jump on GB, I like that because his opening was fishy but I also don't like it because it feels too easy. I'll have to see how that continues.

Don't like GiygaS so far... Has made like 7 posts but I didn't see anything of substance. The fist reads also don't really seem that strong.

I have a slight townread on NocturneMage, he's being out there and being open about his thoughts. He's also asking lots of questions which makes me think he's trying to solve the game. He is a dirty league player, though...

I don't understand your read on Gigya versus your read on ShapeLog. I read Gigya's thread and I agree with what you say - it's basically soft town reads on a couple of people based on activity with the rest OOC filler. But then, look at ShapeLog's filter. It's mostly the same, except three times longer.


Can you explain this post when you can? You are saying that you agreed with the read on GigyaS, and thus you scumread him (????) but then you are making a like to like comparison to Shapelog who you are townreading? Can you explain if this affects your townread on Shapelog or whether it should because I don't otherwise understand what you are getting at here?
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
December 30 2015 01:33 GMT
#387
Mage, how many games have you played with scott?
I'm adorable.
TheCow
Profile Joined December 2015
Canada24 Posts
December 30 2015 01:38 GMT
#388
EBWOP: 197*
192 was a mistake.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
December 30 2015 01:42 GMT
#389
GB, two that I recall. In Newbie 14, Scott was engaged with the thread, and very active and made strides to solve that game. You were mafia in that game, Fidei threw in 2:1 lylo. In my last newbie, he was town but not as engaged and scum Trfel pushed him to death day 1. I'm loathe to use meta so I would rather opt to flesh him out as much as I can in this current game. His scum games, he is not quite as active or does very little, but as I've never actually been in a game with him as scum, I'd rather just flesh him out.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
December 30 2015 01:44 GMT
#390
mderg, I looked at Kush/GB filters, Kush could be argued to soft push him and GB doesn't mention him at all, but if you are arguing they are both scum for that, seeing as you have independent (???) reasons to scumread them both, I'd rather see a flip or a stronger case against one of them before using the association argument.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
December 30 2015 01:54 GMT
#391
I'm looking at GB's reaction test on KMatt or his read on KMatt. My only issue with this reaction test is, looking at his filter, and his conversation with Shapelog is trying to see if his stance based on the reaction test would change his reads (or further solidify his reads) on Shapelog or KMatt. KMatt has responded since then and what bothers me further with GlowingBear is that I would expect him to also at least engage KMatt.

Could KMatt be scum (there's a post I'll draw attention to, it was the one where he drops the GB scumread, it could be scum backing down or dropping a read or it could be a townie new to the game lacking confidence) - sure. But you would think the townie thing to do particularly of a veteran player would be to engage or further engage him.

Wishy washy filter? okay.
Vote placed? Okay.
Reaction test and explanation? Okay.
What are you doing with either the reaction test OR the scumread? Nothing.

???????????????????
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
December 30 2015 01:55 GMT
#392
And I say that because GlowingBear's response after that last response was to query me on how many games I've played with Scott. Despite KMatt actually being in thread.

It doesn't make any sense.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
December 30 2015 01:57 GMT
#393
EBWOP Well maybe the question itself could make sense since my vote is on Scott, fair play, but the lack of engagement with a scumread is what I am having trouble with.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
December 30 2015 02:04 GMT
#394
At least Cow's layout is more clear and has more specific points that can be crosschecked.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
Irishbound
Profile Joined December 2015
42 Posts
December 30 2015 02:09 GMT
#395
In the process of catching up.

@Fidei - I'm not really sure how you were "meta town reading Scott" when a) You haven't seen him scum play before and b) You've stated that his play in his town games wasn't the same in all three. Can you explain that to me a little more please?

I'm strongly against policy lynching, it's far better to aim to hit scum (And I strongly disagree with the "It's so hard to hit scum D1, I've hit scum D1 in close to 60% of games) and don't like that Noons first content post after stating he was catching up was requesting a policy lynch here especially since I'd consider Onegu a really really easy push for scum when it sounds like he 'trolls/puts little effort in', the fact there's really no stance on anyone or attempt to scumhunt and is putting it of to D2 is something I don't like at all, especially from an experienced player, my town read there is completely dead.

Really liked Mdergs reaction towards Noon pushing the PL in this post, in fact all of his posts from onward when looking at them in ISO match my thoughts very closely and the "I think these 2 people are avoiding each other" in this post is a very strong scum tell, it's common for townies to have crack pot scum-team theories early on and attempt to notice how interactions affect each other whereas it's not something that scum think of naturally or consider faking often.

On December 30 2015 03:02 GlowingBear wrote:Are you sure you're not Foolishness?

???
Irishbound
Profile Joined December 2015
42 Posts
December 30 2015 02:11 GMT
#396
On December 30 2015 11:09 Irishbound wrote: and the "I think these 2 people are avoiding each other" in this post is a very strong scum tell, it's common for townies to have crack pot scum-team theories early on and attempt to notice how interactions affect each other whereas it's not something that scum think of naturally or consider faking often.

Italicized should be very strong town tell.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
December 30 2015 02:15 GMT
#397
From context in 362 I am going to make the assumption that KMatt (unlike Cow/Irishbound) is pretty inexperienced at forum mafia.

On December 30 2015 09:43 Kmatt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 30 2015 09:40 Shapelog wrote:
On December 29 2015 10:11 Kmatt wrote:
On December 29 2015 10:00 NocturneMage wrote:
KMatt from post 197 you are suggesting that probability is a reason that GB is more likely town, yet the reality here is 3/11 chance (I know I'm town and you would on yourself from the perspective that you are town) there is mafia and in this case, that you might suggest there is potential mafia behaviour (buddying in this case) for GB.

From the perspective of an experienced player, and/or based on his repetition you suggested, do you see that possibly coming from town or mafia? Do you see any other interactions from GB that would point you towards either direction.

Furthermore, do you have any other observations on the other players that have made reads/interactions in thread?


I didn't really mean anything by saying that he was "probably town", just purely the 3/11 (27%) vs 8/11 (73%) chance factor. I actually didn't think about the buddying factor though, since none of the people he was "buddying" came off as suspicious to me. I wouldn't go as far as to say that GB is showing mafia behavior, just that he stood out to me.

If I had to guess right now, his posts would make more sense for a mafia to do. However, that seems like it would be an obvious (mafia) rookie mistake (considering a scrub "caught" him on it), which I wouldn't expect of him. I'm still neutral on it for now.

Kind of the same with Irish. He's certainly putting more ideas out there than a lot of other posters, but nothing that would really swing me either way.


So u have list the chances of him being town, then null him, then put him up for vote?

What has changed? I mean all that has happen is that he scum read u. did you reread and a earlier post seems scummy now or what?

I can understand ur GiygaS Khan vote thou.


I don't think much has changed. To be honest, I did have a scumlean on GB, but I don't want to assert that since I wasn't confident enough in my own "evidence". Looking back over it I think I'm comfortable dropping my scumlean on GB. With that said:

##vote GiygaS


Can you also walk me through what in your head made you drop that scumlean on GB? That's about the only thing not clear in the filter. I can see the evidence threshold being reasonable of an argument for a newbie who doesn't know what he's doing to make. I can see this quote:

On December 30 2015 09:49 Kmatt wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 30 2015 09:36 GlowingBear wrote:
On December 30 2015 09:32 Shapelog wrote:
On December 30 2015 09:22 GlowingBear wrote:
I think Kmatt's filter has been wishy washy, that's why I voted him. I could quoting and explaining my rwas but I'm actually too lazy right now to put effort

I'm also playing another game which from times to times keeps me from giving my full attention to this one


So basically a non commitment issue. Yeah that's true.
At least ik what ur prob. is now.

Can u still explain y if i had a read on him matter?


I usually delay explanation and post just votes and questions just to have people talking. If I answered you right at that moment I would destroy this premise. So I was just trying to have people talking about it for a longer time.


While that seems like an effective tactic, I really can't like using it as town since that fits "make posts that stir up trouble without actually contributing to the thread" to a T. Not five minutes after I toss my scumread...

If you really do have an argument against me, let's get it out into the open. I don't think there's anything to lose by hiding information from all three of us in here right now.


Being a reasonable amount of scepticism towards someone for someone who is inexperienced with forum mafia. This becomes more certain when you take that against GB's lack of (direct) followup per his filter.

Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
NocturneMage
Profile Joined July 2015
United Kingdom1965 Posts
December 30 2015 02:17 GMT
#398
On December 30 2015 11:04 NocturneMage wrote:
At least Cow's layout is more clear and has more specific points that can be crosschecked.


Also forgot to add to this, starting another wagon when he could have put his vote on scott as a scumread is generally a town tell.
Vlad for life. SKT supporter. I policy lynch all dota players, end of.
Irishbound
Profile Joined December 2015
42 Posts
December 30 2015 02:18 GMT
#399
I'll summarise the issues I have with Noon:

a) In the pregame he stated that he was looking forward to playing with Onegu here, it's not impossible that it was him being sarcastic but it does make his attempt to policy lynch Onegu based on nearly nothing inside this thread look very scum motivated. b) I find the timing of his push on Onegu (When there was attention on Scott) as well as his shotty reasoning behind town reading Scott in this post to mean that he makes a lot of sense as scum with Scott. c) Strongly dislike the fact that he's not attempted to scumhunt at all throughout this day phase and is attempting to state he won't do so until D2, that makes sense coming from scum thinking he's able to coast a day phase without any risk himself.

Alright I'll continue catching up an then I'll post my reads line.
GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
December 30 2015 02:20 GMT
#400
On December 30 2015 10:42 NocturneMage wrote:
GB, two that I recall. In Newbie 14, Scott was engaged with the thread, and very active and made strides to solve that game. You were mafia in that game, Fidei threw in 2:1 lylo. In my last newbie, he was town but not as engaged and scum Trfel pushed him to death day 1. I'm loathe to use meta so I would rather opt to flesh him out as much as I can in this current game. His scum games, he is not quite as active or does very little, but as I've never actually been in a game with him as scum, I'd rather just flesh him out.


If you check most of his games, he is mainly inactive.

Don't you think it is kinda early to consider him mafia?
I'm adorable.
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