EPTFull Case on DoYouHas
Part 1: There are still a few unexplained holes in his D1 play
Let me restate these things.
1.1
On December 03 2015 20:19 Rels wrote:
[...]3. A total apathy towards the lynch
Here are the two posts DYH made after coming back to EOD:
DYH just didn't care about the lynch. The third post was only made after I tried to get people to vote him.[...]
[...]3. A total apathy towards the lynch
Here are the two posts DYH made after coming back to EOD:
DYH just didn't care about the lynch. The third post was only made after I tried to get people to vote him.[...]
1.2
On December 03 2015 08:15 disformation wrote:
[...]His reason for voting LS:
Last mention of me in his filter:
So I am kinda asking myself where he got that magical TR on me from...[...]
[...]His reason for voting LS:
Last mention of me in his filter:
So I am kinda asking myself where he got that magical TR on me from...[...]
Part 2: His sudden HtS push/vote
Despite having found nothing in HtS filter D1:
On December 02 2015 14:14 DoYouHas wrote:
Well reading the filters of my middleground group (Fid, HtS, LS, disfo) was significantly less productive than I had hoped.
Gnight folks
@LS - I would like to hear your feelings towards Palmar, Damdred, and Rels.
Well reading the filters of my middleground group (Fid, HtS, LS, disfo) was significantly less productive than I had hoped.
Gnight folks
@LS - I would like to hear your feelings towards Palmar, Damdred, and Rels.
He makes a case on her early N1, after NM is replaced in and says he is quite sure HtS is mafia.
Sure he posted:
On December 03 2015 10:37 DoYouHas wrote:
Before you all get ahead of yourselves and this gets lost, lets take a look at Kush's filter and reads.
Town reads on myself, trfel, and fid.
Scum reads on Moosy and HtS. Convinced to lynch LS over Moosy.
Seems pretty suspicious of Rels (#240 & #547) but doesn't really push him.
Doesn't townread Palmar like many of us have (myself included).
I think it is fair to say that he was at least townie-null on Damdred since it is Damdred's push on LS that got him to change his vote.
-
Conclusion: I need to reread HtS with the new knowledge of Kush and LS (I agree that the deadline post makes him very, very likely town).
Before you all get ahead of yourselves and this gets lost, lets take a look at Kush's filter and reads.
Town reads on myself, trfel, and fid.
Scum reads on Moosy and HtS. Convinced to lynch LS over Moosy.
Seems pretty suspicious of Rels (#240 & #547) but doesn't really push him.
Doesn't townread Palmar like many of us have (myself included).
I think it is fair to say that he was at least townie-null on Damdred since it is Damdred's push on LS that got him to change his vote.
-
Conclusion: I need to reread HtS with the new knowledge of Kush and LS (I agree that the deadline post makes him very, very likely town).
Just before NM came in. But that could just be a clever setup for the case. I mean he didn't really care about kush before the lynch and I can imagine HtS telling her teammates to bus her hard as soon as she sees NM replacing in. NM also said that she was at the PC at lynch time. So this plan could have been hatched as soon as like a few minutes after lunch time.
Intermediate Part: A few strange posts here and there
On December 04 2015 09:03 DoYouHas wrote:
BTW, this is the second time everyone ends up agreeing with me and I'm still on most of the scumlists. -_-
BTW, this is the second time everyone ends up agreeing with me and I'm still on most of the scumlists. -_-
"Can I has my town cred plx?"
On December 06 2015 02:53 DoYouHas wrote:
Damdred Reread
Palmar- believes he is town through most of the day. Becomes a little less convinced before he dies, but still a townread.
Shining- Townread
Rels- Townread, thinks he has a penchant for tunneling.
LS- He believes the EoD D1 makes LS town.
Trfel- Town that is wrong. Spends a lot of time trying to figure trfel out and waivers a lot.
Fid- Townread early, likes what he has to say but is suspicious of him for activity/meta reasons.
Disfo- Townread but not part of the "Strong town circle"
DYH- Liked me early, didn't mention me much, but was ok with shifting to me or kush at EoD. So, null/scumlean.
Moosy- Null
-
Where Damdred overlaps with Kush is the townread on Fid, and that is about it.
Damdred Reread
Palmar- believes he is town through most of the day. Becomes a little less convinced before he dies, but still a townread.
Shining- Townread
Rels- Townread, thinks he has a penchant for tunneling.
LS- He believes the EoD D1 makes LS town.
Trfel- Town that is wrong. Spends a lot of time trying to figure trfel out and waivers a lot.
Fid- Townread early, likes what he has to say but is suspicious of him for activity/meta reasons.
Disfo- Townread but not part of the "Strong town circle"
DYH- Liked me early, didn't mention me much, but was ok with shifting to me or kush at EoD. So, null/scumlean.
Moosy- Null
-
Where Damdred overlaps with Kush is the townread on Fid, and that is about it.
"Look I am even doing stuff!"
Part 3: His scum read on me
Again he does a 180° on me out of nowhere. Note that The Shining started to scum read me a while before, so the 2nd time DYH makes a case on someone already under suspicion. The opens up with a classy post on top of the deadline indicating I might be scum:
On December 07 2015 08:00 DoYouHas wrote:
Looking at HtS's filter I have a couple of thoughts.
1. I am very wrong about Trfel, he is town.
2. Disfo may not be the townie that I thought he was. There are a few things that look off to me between him and HtS.
3. The NM bus theory of Trfel may not be far-fetched. HtS was soft defending moosy.
Will elaborate assuming I live. Pretty good bet.
Looking at HtS's filter I have a couple of thoughts.
1. I am very wrong about Trfel, he is town.
2. Disfo may not be the townie that I thought he was. There are a few things that look off to me between him and HtS.
3. The NM bus theory of Trfel may not be far-fetched. HtS was soft defending moosy.
Will elaborate assuming I live. Pretty good bet.
Saying things between me and HtS look kinda off.
On December 07 2015 09:20 DoYouHas wrote:
So this analysis is very similar to votecount, but it is based off of lists that a scum player makes. Every scum player I have ever played with will include at least 1 scum-mate on lists that they make.
Here is HtS's first list: + Show Spoiler +
1. Damdred, Rels, Moosy, Trfel, Disfo
HtS's second, third, & lynch list: + Show Spoiler +
2. Trfel, Damdred, Fid, Disfo
3. Trfel, Disfo, LS
Lynch: DYH, Kush, Onegu(pure policy)
HtS's fourth list: + Show Spoiler +
4. Trfel, DYH, Kush, Rels, Disfo
-
Ok. So she is putting Trfel and Disfo in pretty much all of her lists. By my above heuristic this makes one or both of them more likely to be mafia.
However, take a look at her interactions with the people on her lists in her filter and see if any of them feel out of place compared to the others. Compared to her interactions with Trfel, Rels, Damdred and her suspicion of me and Kush, her interaction with Disfo is very bland, flat. She starts with vague scumlean but the rest of her interaction reads more like she is inviting him to interact with her for the sake of interacting.
-
I think the cross between these two methods is a pretty good reason to scumread Disfo. Please look into it yourselves.
##Vote: Disformation
So this analysis is very similar to votecount, but it is based off of lists that a scum player makes. Every scum player I have ever played with will include at least 1 scum-mate on lists that they make.
Here is HtS's first list: + Show Spoiler +
On December 01 2015 09:31 Half the Sky wrote:
Hey everyone.
A few thoughts on my end before I head to bed -
Nulls on Rels/Damdred regarding setup discussion/speculation as I feel those are types of posts that can be made as either alignment (and such Rels' scumreads on Do and Damdred could also fall under the same category) by players who know general gameplay well enough.
Trfel's comments on LS I have a mixed reaction on. I don't like the following phrasing and here's why:
When I read this, I read it as trying to absolve responsibility from self regardless of actual intention (baiting in this case) - it's not what LS posted that is the problem, it's what you (Trfel) did about it. That reaction makes me think whether you are trying to cover something up.
Moosy is something I am going to need more time reading given his general playstyle. No read on him so far obviously.
disformation hasn't made any reads yets with the Trfel/Damdred interaction going on, and I think that might have been about when he left the thread. Answered Trfel's question, but from recalling the last student game, he did take more stances in that game.
So far probable scumleans on Trfel/disformation.
Fidei was someone who falls off hard as mafia, first post based on his SOTW 2 performance (mafia) is going to weigh in at NAI. The ONLY thing that jumps out at me from Fidei's post is why he commented on Rels being towny but Damdred not being so even though both talked about the setup, and Damdred seems to make more of a point in trying to get town to coalesence.
Moving to Palmar/Shining...
Hey everyone.
A few thoughts on my end before I head to bed -
Nulls on Rels/Damdred regarding setup discussion/speculation as I feel those are types of posts that can be made as either alignment (and such Rels' scumreads on Do and Damdred could also fall under the same category) by players who know general gameplay well enough.
Trfel's comments on LS I have a mixed reaction on. I don't like the following phrasing and here's why:
When I read this, I read it as trying to absolve responsibility from self regardless of actual intention (baiting in this case) - it's not what LS posted that is the problem, it's what you (Trfel) did about it. That reaction makes me think whether you are trying to cover something up.
Moosy is something I am going to need more time reading given his general playstyle. No read on him so far obviously.
disformation hasn't made any reads yets with the Trfel/Damdred interaction going on, and I think that might have been about when he left the thread. Answered Trfel's question, but from recalling the last student game, he did take more stances in that game.
So far probable scumleans on Trfel/disformation.
Fidei was someone who falls off hard as mafia, first post based on his SOTW 2 performance (mafia) is going to weigh in at NAI. The ONLY thing that jumps out at me from Fidei's post is why he commented on Rels being towny but Damdred not being so even though both talked about the setup, and Damdred seems to make more of a point in trying to get town to coalesence.
Moving to Palmar/Shining...
1. Damdred, Rels, Moosy, Trfel, Disfo
HtS's second, third, & lynch list: + Show Spoiler +
On December 02 2015 04:27 Half the Sky wrote:
I need to put my head down again since I'm still feeling pretty sick. Going to go through again Trfel/Damdred/Fidei/disformation etc. on a full re-read. I'm also having issues with town reads.
Right now, I need to flesh out Trfel a little more, same for disformation and LS. The lynch list right now is kush/DYH, Onegu is straight policy, but there's got to be an active mafia somewhere.
Palmar is probably town but this is a gut feel based on how he proceeded with the case.
I need to put my head down again since I'm still feeling pretty sick. Going to go through again Trfel/Damdred/Fidei/disformation etc. on a full re-read. I'm also having issues with town reads.
Right now, I need to flesh out Trfel a little more, same for disformation and LS. The lynch list right now is kush/DYH, Onegu is straight policy, but there's got to be an active mafia somewhere.
Palmar is probably town but this is a gut feel based on how he proceeded with the case.
2. Trfel, Damdred, Fid, Disfo
3. Trfel, Disfo, LS
Lynch: DYH, Kush, Onegu(pure policy)
HtS's fourth list: + Show Spoiler +
On December 03 2015 04:48 Half the Sky wrote:
I'm here. I am still really sick (and thanks for the well wishes all, I hope I will improve) but I'm going to try my best here to answer all the questions possible.
The above is correct. This also partially helps answer Trfel's question to me - LS was not in my lynch list (and relative to the rest of the thread) because D1, similar to SOTW, if there's something that is not clicking I have to flesh his reads out. He was a scumlean based on the stuff he said, I hashed out to make sure I was understanding LS, and it was back to null pending the interactions with other people in the thread. There was a part where he mentioned Trfel casing Damdred (and I still have to go back and look at that, Christ) which would give some indication as to Trfel/Damdred/LS alignments to some extent. Obviously need to catch up on the rest of his filter. Not lynching him until I read and feel otherwise.
Trfel, I mentioned a post where I scumleaned you initially for the comment you made on LS. I made an explanation as to why, it was something along the lines of tone and not wanting to take responsibility. There was something else that you mentioned, you answered it, but if you answered that first concern, show me the post where you did. There's a very good chance I missed it. Again, I failed to analyse you v Damdred.
DYH over kush - It was part read on Trfel and part lack of followup on Trfel at that time when he commented on Shining/Palmar, which I felt could have come from either alignment. Also I wanted to press him for more reads, and I recall I did that somewhere. Obviously need to check his filter again and see what he's done since. I know I did not scumread him on activity especially since it's my first game with him and I don't know offhand if he's a lurky player. In any instance, I put both in a lynch list and I gave my reasons for not liking kush.
Also I think it was you Trfel, whoever it was said that scum doesn't know the setup. This is not true. Look at the day one post. There is a list of 4 setups so that is part of where my statement came from.
Additional comments/followups from what I saw from skimming the thread:
Rels - posting game details has to be done regardless of whatever else games I'm playing. It either needed to be done when signups went up or very soon after. I was queued in, it had to get done. Take that as you will.
Disformation - looking at your response to my last question right now, also did you have a question for me? You said a few times you were looking through my filter.
Trfel - did you answer my questions regarding distinguishing activity between DYH and kush? (post 391, again if I missed it point it out) If you looked into Rels based on your last response to me, what did you think of him? (same deal if I missed it)
Should hopefully be able to move forward after this. Let me see who is up for lynch and weigh in...
I'm here. I am still really sick (and thanks for the well wishes all, I hope I will improve) but I'm going to try my best here to answer all the questions possible.
The above is correct. This also partially helps answer Trfel's question to me - LS was not in my lynch list (and relative to the rest of the thread) because D1, similar to SOTW, if there's something that is not clicking I have to flesh his reads out. He was a scumlean based on the stuff he said, I hashed out to make sure I was understanding LS, and it was back to null pending the interactions with other people in the thread. There was a part where he mentioned Trfel casing Damdred (and I still have to go back and look at that, Christ) which would give some indication as to Trfel/Damdred/LS alignments to some extent. Obviously need to catch up on the rest of his filter. Not lynching him until I read and feel otherwise.
Trfel, I mentioned a post where I scumleaned you initially for the comment you made on LS. I made an explanation as to why, it was something along the lines of tone and not wanting to take responsibility. There was something else that you mentioned, you answered it, but if you answered that first concern, show me the post where you did. There's a very good chance I missed it. Again, I failed to analyse you v Damdred.
DYH over kush - It was part read on Trfel and part lack of followup on Trfel at that time when he commented on Shining/Palmar, which I felt could have come from either alignment. Also I wanted to press him for more reads, and I recall I did that somewhere. Obviously need to check his filter again and see what he's done since. I know I did not scumread him on activity especially since it's my first game with him and I don't know offhand if he's a lurky player. In any instance, I put both in a lynch list and I gave my reasons for not liking kush.
Also I think it was you Trfel, whoever it was said that scum doesn't know the setup. This is not true. Look at the day one post. There is a list of 4 setups so that is part of where my statement came from.
Additional comments/followups from what I saw from skimming the thread:
Rels - posting game details has to be done regardless of whatever else games I'm playing. It either needed to be done when signups went up or very soon after. I was queued in, it had to get done. Take that as you will.
Disformation - looking at your response to my last question right now, also did you have a question for me? You said a few times you were looking through my filter.
Trfel - did you answer my questions regarding distinguishing activity between DYH and kush? (post 391, again if I missed it point it out) If you looked into Rels based on your last response to me, what did you think of him? (same deal if I missed it)
Should hopefully be able to move forward after this. Let me see who is up for lynch and weigh in...
4. Trfel, DYH, Kush, Rels, Disfo
-
Ok. So she is putting Trfel and Disfo in pretty much all of her lists. By my above heuristic this makes one or both of them more likely to be mafia.
However, take a look at her interactions with the people on her lists in her filter and see if any of them feel out of place compared to the others. Compared to her interactions with Trfel, Rels, Damdred and her suspicion of me and Kush, her interaction with Disfo is very bland, flat. She starts with vague scumlean but the rest of her interaction reads more like she is inviting him to interact with her for the sake of interacting.
-
I think the cross between these two methods is a pretty good reason to scumread Disfo. Please look into it yourselves.
##Vote: Disformation
Then he does this post. I kinda like the approach, but it has the problem that it only looks into one direction. How did HtS treat me. I have zero influence and no clue what scum!HtS was planning. She was a coach in NSM17, where my town play was super bad D1 and N1. Maybe she was testing whether she could get me to start being overly defensive and set me up for a misslynch? Who knows?
He then says:
On December 07 2015 09:48 DoYouHas wrote:
But you do bring up a good point. I need to look into this from your side of things. Will filter you after dinner stuff.
But you do bring up a good point. I need to look into this from your side of things. Will filter you after dinner stuff.
Which never happend.
In his next post he does another 180° on me:
On December 08 2015 14:17 DoYouHas wrote:
Soooooo, my reason for townreading Trfel apparently is bad. It is association based on his interactions with HtS. I've been looking at his last scum game. If I was playing, I would never have picked up on anything odd between him and Breshke. So confused...
This weakens my argument against Disfo as well, even if my initial assumption was true.
##Unvote
My to-do before the deadline is to reread the cases on Trfel and Fid, read Fid's filter and decide the more likely scum.
Soooooo, my reason for townreading Trfel apparently is bad. It is association based on his interactions with HtS. I've been looking at his last scum game. If I was playing, I would never have picked up on anything odd between him and Breshke. So confused...
This weakens my argument against Disfo as well, even if my initial assumption was true.
##Unvote
My to-do before the deadline is to reread the cases on Trfel and Fid, read Fid's filter and decide the more likely scum.
So... he sees ppl are not willing to vote me, realizes his one way association thing isn't great and does remove his vote. Though I am not 100% sure how reading Trfel's last game does weaken his stuff on me enough to unvote. Further explanation would be great.
Conveniently he chooses two ppl that are suspected by a lot of ppl as his next targets.
How does that wrap up in the big picture
This part may be a bit WIFOMY, but in my head it makes incredible sense atm.
Day 1 he sees that we have a lot of lynch bait around. He does try to get away with the least bit of work and votes whoever.
NM gets replaced in, the scum team decides that max bussing for max town cred is the best strategy here. Since his D1 didn't look to great, he goes with for the cred with an early case.
N2 he sees the case from The Shining on me. He decides to push me, too in the hopes of setting up the ML. Later he comes back to see, that no one is voting me, but can't find solid evidence to push me further. So he does an other 180° on me and tries to switch to easier targets.
Conclusion
Hand me a lighter, cause imma lynch this with fire.
