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On November 14 2015 21:02 Vivax wrote:
Xata, who was the spy on the mission you issued?
SL probably. I agree that rayn/Coag has the worst mission/vote record (besides HTS), but other things still point more to him being town (his balanced attitude to the game as opposed to his very aggressive/agenda-driven attitude as scum in VS, and his lack of care for getting modkilled etc.). SL also has things against him like first scumreading me, then suddenly townreading me when I put him on the mission with me (meaning he could easily sabotage the mission just by townreading me at that moment).
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On November 14 2015 21:08 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2015 21:02 Vivax wrote:
Xata, who was the spy on the mission you issued? SL probably. I agree that rayn/Coag has the worst mission/vote record (besides HTS), but other things still point more to him being town (his balanced attitude to the game as opposed to his very aggressive/agenda-driven attitude as scum in VS, and his lack of care for getting modkilled etc.). SL also has things against him like first scumreading me, then suddenly townreading me when I put him on the mission with me (meaning he could easily sabotage the mission just by townreading me at that moment).
Right, and HTS and Artanis his scumbuds?
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Well, at least Coag downvoted the most recent team, so there's that at least going for his vote record. That makes it already much better than HTS's  (which includes YES voting every failteam without being on any of them herself, and also YES voting the very likely failteam just now).
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Xata why did Rels vote no if SL is mafia?
I take it your reads are SL/HTS/Rels
So you aren't making any sense right now.
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On November 14 2015 21:12 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2015 21:08 Xatalos wrote:On November 14 2015 21:02 Vivax wrote:
Xata, who was the spy on the mission you issued? SL probably. I agree that rayn/Coag has the worst mission/vote record (besides HTS), but other things still point more to him being town (his balanced attitude to the game as opposed to his very aggressive/agenda-driven attitude as scum in VS, and his lack of care for getting modkilled etc.). SL also has things against him like first scumreading me, then suddenly townreading me when I put him on the mission with me (meaning he could easily sabotage the mission just by townreading me at that moment). Right, and HTS and Artanis his scumbuds?
HTS is the most likely other scum yeah. Her terrible vote record and bullshit reasons to push me/rayn after the first fail should be reason enough. The last scum I'm not sure about atm. I thought it was Rels, but then he voted NO to the team just now....... Hm. I guess it could be Artanis as well. His vote record approaches HTS levels of bad if we include this most recent vote. It's probably not you, also considering the most recent vote as well.
Meh. But SL/HTS I'm like 95+% are scum at least.
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On November 14 2015 21:17 Vivax wrote:
Xata why did Rels vote no if SL is mafia?
I take it your reads are SL/HTS/Rels
So you aren't making any sense right now.
Well, I just talked about that....
Maybe I should do some kita-esque combinatorics with SL/HTS.
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You don't have to do anything. We send the same team which is a confirmed town team cause all people from mission 2 no-voted it. Just that this time I vote yes.
Kita is mafia.
Xata is mafia.
Last mafia is either Coag or Rels.
Send anyone else, win the game.
Concede plz.
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Let's see...
1) There's at least 1 scum between Coag/SL
2) There's at least 1 scum within Coag/Rels/kita/Vivax
3) There's at most 1 scum within HTS/Artanis/shockeyy (unless Coag is scum)
Those are clear facts... Now it gets a bit more tricky, but hold on.
4) HTS and kita probably aren't scum together (because HTS put kita as a preference to her own team - just why if they were both scum? - makes more sense if kita was the one to be blamed afterwards)
5) SL and Coag probably aren't scum together (again, just why would rayn/Coag endorse SL to the team then?)
Hmmm... The most sensible combinations seem to be:
SL/HTS/Rels
SL/HTS/Vivax
Other combinations don't make too much sense.
But then again, Rels voted NO to the team just now, and I doubt Vivax is scum atm.
I guess I *could* be wrong on one of HTS or SL.
I'll need to think about this....
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On November 14 2015 21:24 Vivax wrote:
You don't have to do anything. We send the same team which is a confirmed town team cause all people from mission 2 no-voted it. Just that this time I vote yes.
Kita is mafia.
Xata is mafia.
Last mafia is either Coag or Rels.
Send anyone else, win the game.
Concede plz.
How is it confirmed? I just showed you that it's likely there was at a NO scum voter in the last failing team which passed anyway.
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How can you still not understand that I'm confirmed town cause I no-voted a team I was on?
If I was spy, do you think that instead of instantly winning the game after saying I would yolo vote yes, I decide to randomly prolong this for a few more days?
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Meh... If Coag was scum, things would get a lot more complicated and the scumteam could be almost anything.
It would just mean that SL would be likely town and Rels/kita/Vivax would have much reduced chances of being scum (again, since rayn/Coag put them on his own team willingly - just why if there was scum included?).
It would be quite likely that there would be 2 scum among HTS/Artanis/shockeyy then.
Actually, I guess it would kind of fit better than SL+HTS+?. Meh... If rayn was scum all along, he really managed to fool me.
And if we assume HTS would be town (which I really just refuse to believe) and SL scum, then Coag would be very likely town and the scum would probably be Rels/kita + Artanis/Shockeyy.
Which I guess isn't impossible either, but what's impossible is HTS being town to begin with.......
So all in all, I guess Coag being scum over SL makes more sense considering potential scumteams / vote records...... But just based on play, SL seems quite a bit more likely scum. HTS being town and SL being scum makes some amount of sense, but less so than the previous world, and what makes least sense of all is HTS possibly being town :/
Meh.... I still think it's very possible they're just both scum (SL/HTS). The only non-sensible part is Rels voting NO last time, but since he did the same to a previous fail team, I guess it's not impossible to happen again now.
Other than Rels, it's not very likely for anyone else (except maybe Vivax) to be with SL/HTS.
It would make some sense considering that HTS has otherwise scumread Rels, but townread Rels when Rels was nominated on a team... Much like SL townread me only when he needed to so that the mission including him would be accepted.
I guess it's still quite plausible after all, considering that Rels has provably voted NO to a failing team before as well.
So SL/HTS/Rels (or *maybe* Coag + probably 2 out of HTS/Artanis/shockeyy) for post game cred
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On November 14 2015 21:39 Vivax wrote:
How can you still not understand that I'm confirmed town cause I no-voted a team I was on?
If I was spy, do you think that instead of instantly winning the game after saying I would yolo vote yes, I decide to randomly prolong this for a few more days?
When have I scumread you? Dunno what you're on about... I don't think I've called either you or Superbia ever scum after my initial dislike of Superbia's fight with me.
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On November 14 2015 21:36 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2015 21:24 Vivax wrote:
You don't have to do anything. We send the same team which is a confirmed town team cause all people from mission 2 no-voted it. Just that this time I vote yes.
Kita is mafia.
Xata is mafia.
Last mafia is either Coag or Rels.
Send anyone else, win the game.
Concede plz. How is it confirmed? I just showed you that it's likely there was at a NO scum voter in the last failing team which passed anyway.
To expand on this: if we assume Rels is scum, it's proven that he's voted NO to a failure team before as well, so why not now? Clearly it's impossible to predict what the exact vote results will be, and it's always scum motivated to confuse the heck out of town with WIFOM. Time is on scum's side after all here (triple LYLO ahead) so why risk everything on voting YES with full force to a fail team?
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I'll be tinfoiling hard before the next mission actually. Mostly about those who always voted yes on any failed mission (HTS, Rayn).
Xata is among them too.
I'm not that sure this was an all town team after all.
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On November 14 2015 21:56 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2015 21:36 Xatalos wrote:On November 14 2015 21:24 Vivax wrote:
You don't have to do anything. We send the same team which is a confirmed town team cause all people from mission 2 no-voted it. Just that this time I vote yes.
Kita is mafia.
Xata is mafia.
Last mafia is either Coag or Rels.
Send anyone else, win the game.
Concede plz. How is it confirmed? I just showed you that it's likely there was at a NO scum voter in the last failing team which passed anyway. To expand on this: if we assume Rels is scum, it's proven that he's voted NO to a failure team before as well, so why not now? Clearly it's impossible to predict what the exact vote results will be, and it's always scum motivated to confuse the heck out of town with WIFOM. Time is on scum's side after all here (triple LYLO ahead) so why risk everything on voting YES with full force to a fail team?
Makes more sense as spy to no vote to a fail team when the mission won't win you the game than when it does.
It earns you enough trust to be put onto the next mission.
We've seen how that worked out when rayn nominated one.
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On November 14 2015 22:01 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2015 21:56 Xatalos wrote:On November 14 2015 21:36 Xatalos wrote:On November 14 2015 21:24 Vivax wrote:
You don't have to do anything. We send the same team which is a confirmed town team cause all people from mission 2 no-voted it. Just that this time I vote yes.
Kita is mafia.
Xata is mafia.
Last mafia is either Coag or Rels.
Send anyone else, win the game.
Concede plz. How is it confirmed? I just showed you that it's likely there was at a NO scum voter in the last failing team which passed anyway. To expand on this: if we assume Rels is scum, it's proven that he's voted NO to a failure team before as well, so why not now? Clearly it's impossible to predict what the exact vote results will be, and it's always scum motivated to confuse the heck out of town with WIFOM. Time is on scum's side after all here (triple LYLO ahead) so why risk everything on voting YES with full force to a fail team? Makes more sense as spy to no vote to a fail team when the mission won't win you the game than when it does. It earns you enough trust to be put onto the next mission. We've seen how that worked out when rayn nominated one.
I guess that's true. Still there wouldn't be guarantee for scum Rels that voting YES here would win the game either. It's very possible that the team could still be disapproved anyway and Rels would just look bad afterwards. In that case, it would just be a gamble with the possibility of losing the game in the long term or possibly winning the game immediately. I can easily see scum Rels making either choice.
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And avoiding risks basically makes sense anyway since scum is winning atm and can easily win with just passing one failure team during many, many rounds when the time is right. No need to take any risks really.
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On November 14 2015 21:39 Vivax wrote:
How can you still not understand that I'm confirmed town cause I no-voted a team I was on?
If I was spy, do you think that instead of instantly winning the game after saying I would yolo vote yes, I decide to randomly prolong this for a few more days?
Ah, I guess you meant me listing the SL/HTS/Vivax team. It wasn't really any likely scenario, just a potential combination that could theoretically make sense. The only realistic combination there seems to be SL/HTS/Rels.
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On November 14 2015 21:59 Vivax wrote:
I'll be tinfoiling hard before the next mission actually. Mostly about those who always voted yes on any failed mission (HTS, Rayn).
Xata is among them too.
I'm not that sure this was an all town team after all.
Well, I won't deny that my voting record isn't the best one. I think it's still better than HTS/Coag though. HTS is especially bad because her YES votes have been to failing teams that she herself hasn't been part of, further pointing to her seeing a chance to pass some failing team in those situations (especially voting Rels to pass when she has mostly been scumreading Rels throughout the game).
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On November 14 2015 22:04 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2015 22:01 Vivax wrote:On November 14 2015 21:56 Xatalos wrote:On November 14 2015 21:36 Xatalos wrote:On November 14 2015 21:24 Vivax wrote:
You don't have to do anything. We send the same team which is a confirmed town team cause all people from mission 2 no-voted it. Just that this time I vote yes.
Kita is mafia.
Xata is mafia.
Last mafia is either Coag or Rels.
Send anyone else, win the game.
Concede plz. How is it confirmed? I just showed you that it's likely there was at a NO scum voter in the last failing team which passed anyway. To expand on this: if we assume Rels is scum, it's proven that he's voted NO to a failure team before as well, so why not now? Clearly it's impossible to predict what the exact vote results will be, and it's always scum motivated to confuse the heck out of town with WIFOM. Time is on scum's side after all here (triple LYLO ahead) so why risk everything on voting YES with full force to a fail team? Makes more sense as spy to no vote to a fail team when the mission won't win you the game than when it does. It earns you enough trust to be put onto the next mission. We've seen how that worked out when rayn nominated one. I guess that's true. Still there wouldn't be guarantee for scum Rels that voting YES here would win the game either. It's very possible that the team could still be disapproved anyway and Rels would just look bad afterwards. In that case, it would just be a gamble with the possibility of losing the game in the long term or possibly winning the game immediately. I can easily see scum Rels making either choice.
Which is why I faked voting yes. Spies were likely to vote yes here just seeing that me and everyone else on that team would support it, plus Artanis who wasn't on it.
It's still more likely this was an all town team just by comparing all the votes from failed missions.
Another thing I want to mention is that it's not bad at all for spies to bring buddies to their team if always only one sabotage act is detected, it seems to be pretty common around here to say "but he wouldn't want another teammate on that wagon".
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EPT
