EPTyour move scummers : D
[M][N] Mini Mafia: The (kinda) Vanilla Experience - Page 145
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
your move scummers : D | ||
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GlowingBear
Brazil12446 Posts
On October 29 2015 02:12 Chromatically wrote: Hmm okay, seems like a weird thing to do to try to 'trap' your townread since D1? I could be wrong on you, so I'm always trying to further investigate people? | ||
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GlowingBear
Brazil12446 Posts
On October 29 2015 02:14 Chromatically wrote: Is this talking about my case on you? No I'm talking about if I'm mafia it's easy to bring a case on someone under suspicions just to look townie. I'm not doing that. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On October 29 2015 02:27 GlowingBear wrote: No I'm talking about if I'm mafia it's easy to bring a case on someone under suspicions just to look townie. I'm not doing that. First, this is wifom second, the people under suspicion might all be your scum buddies. third, bussing your teamates is not your wincondition, mislynches are your win condition if your scum, so at some point you need to go after people that are considered firm townies if you want to win. not saying this makes you more scum by any means, but this logic doesn't hold up at all / : try again plox. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
But there are some problems with that team. For example, ritoky eagerly jumped on Onegu D1, and again voted for GB D2. GB has also pushed Onegu lately. Could be bussing I guess, but especially ritoky is a bit hard to explain. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On October 29 2015 02:41 Xatalos wrote: One crazy idea I had is that the scumteam could be something like Onegu/GB/ritoky since they've all had these hipster suspicions in the last 24 hours - maybe feeling pressed into a corner and needing to redirect attention? Could also explain the rayn NK as trying to shake things up, and rayn's scumread on GB/ritoky.... But there are some problems with that team. For example, ritoky eagerly jumped on Onegu D1, and again voted for GB D2. GB has also pushed Onegu lately. Could be bussing I guess, but especially ritoky is a bit hard to explain. Even if that's the case, though, I don't think that's a reason to change from our current lynch target. We don't even have to have weird ideas to want to lynch into the GB/1G/H1 group | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On October 29 2015 02:41 Xatalos wrote: One crazy idea I had is that the scumteam could be something like Onegu/GB/ritoky since they've all had these hipster suspicions in the last 24 hours - maybe feeling pressed into a corner and needing to redirect attention? Could also explain the rayn NK as trying to shake things up, and rayn's scumread on GB/ritoky.... But there are some problems with that team. For example, ritoky eagerly jumped on Onegu D1, and again voted for GB D2. GB has also pushed Onegu lately. Could be bussing I guess, but especially ritoky is a bit hard to explain. I doubt Ritoky is scum, no reason to push you like he has. If hes scum hell push the least townie looking mofo (case could be made for vivax there) and just shoot you. like, Why put all the effort into accusing you when your probally just gonna be a shot? I think its naive of ritoky to think that he can beat you at lylo as scum. It's also unlikely that he would seriously consider trying to save his scum buddies at this point. So yeah, probs not scum / : | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On October 29 2015 02:54 Xatalos wrote: True, I suppose... In any case, there should be at least one scum within GB/Onegu, so I'm not really sad whichever gets picked today. Hopefully they're both scum or we hit the correct one first. Yeah that's basically how I'm feeling as well. | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
that would mean a combination of vivax gb xata and ritoky. I consider xata and ritoky pretty hard town at this point, and vivax and gb arent likely to be scum together so I think the possibility that scum were town reading rayn is much higher. What ya think? | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On October 29 2015 03:16 Xatalos wrote: I guess it could me a mix of both though or something? Not sure how far we should read into it? well if scum thought that a rayn mislynch could ever be possible, then they wouldnt have shot rayn. But yes it could 2 1 which is actually what I think it is. Basically scum look at it and saw they could never viably get more than 3 votes on rayn without comprimising themselves. thats the theory anyways / : | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
On October 29 2015 03:10 gumshoe wrote: Bh, I considered what you said about scum bieng the ONLY ones to be pushing rayn that would mean a combination of vivax gb xata and ritoky. I consider xata and ritoky pretty hard town at this point, and vivax and gb arent likely to be scum together so I think the possibility that scum were town reading rayn is much higher. What ya think? I am not saying scum were the only ones pushing rayn. I'm just saying your logc, which again, seems to be pretty strange, could be used to prove both "scum were all on rayn" and "no scum were on rayn". If you are using a heuristic or piece of logic and it can prove anything easily, it should be allowed to fail. The problem with this idea that "scum weren't able to lynch rayn, therefore scum are X, Y, and Z" fails because it explains too much. If an explanation can explain literally any outcome, it has no predictive value. I actually went back and found the quote that first explained this concept to me, so you too can learn: In Munich in the days of the great theoretical physicist Arnold Sommerfeld (1868–1954), trolley cars were cooled in summer by two small fans set into their ceilings. When the trolley was in motion, air flowing over its top would spin the fans, pulling warm air out of the cars. One student noticed that although the motion of any given fan was fairly random—fans could turn either clockwise or counterclockwise—the two fans in a single car nearly always rotated in opposite directions. Why was this? Finally he brought the problem to Sommerfeld. “That is easy to explain,” said Sommerfeld. “Air hits the fan at the front of the car first, giving it a random motion in one direction. But once the trolley begins to move, a vortex created by the first fan travels down the top of the car and sets the second fan moving in precisely the same direction.” “But, Professor Sommerfeld,” the student protested, “what happens is in fact the opposite! The two fans nearly always rotate in different directions.” “Ahhhh!” said Sommerfeld. “But of course that is even easier to explain.” --Devine and Cohen, Absolute Zero Gravity, p. 96. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25552 Posts
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
![[image loading]](http://www.lovethispic.com/uploaded_images/81954-Gummy-Bear.jpg) | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On October 29 2015 03:27 Blazinghand wrote: I am not saying scum were the only ones pushing rayn. I'm just saying your logc, which again, seems to be pretty strange, could be used to prove both "scum were all on rayn" and "no scum were on rayn". If you are using a heuristic or piece of logic and it can prove anything easily, it should be allowed to fail. The problem with this idea that "scum weren't able to lynch rayn, therefore scum are X, Y, and Z" fails because it explains too much. If an explanation can explain literally any outcome, it has no predictive value. I actually went back and found the quote that first explained this concept to me, so you too can learn: --Devine and Cohen, Absolute Zero Gravity, p. 96. Thats very true, but we have a certain context to clash against my argument, which gives it some utility. heres the frame my argument provides. Scum want to win, scum need to mislynch townies, rayn on paper is the most mislynchable townie, but they shot him, so clearly there was some reason that scum were not confident in mislynching him. There are two possibilities. 1: The majority of Scum are pushing rayn and the rest of town are opposed, which would mean a combination of xatalos, ritoky, gb and vivax, 2 of which, vivax and gb, cant be scum together, and the other 2 arent likely scum based of thier play. so not real hit there. 2: The majority of scum are town reading rayn for varius reasons, and cannot switch to him without contradicting themselves. townies fairly vehemently oposed to rayn bieng scum (hopeless, gumshoe, onegu, bh chromatically) three of these players, me you and chrom, appear townie from thier play, but hopeless and onegu do fit the mold of a majority scum team that cannot mislynch rayn because they are townreading him. Basically when you cross refrence scummy play with the argument that most of sum are townreading rayn and therefore cannot mislynch him, and the argument that most of scum are scum reading him therefore they cannot lynch him, this is the only real hit you get. Does that make sense? Imagine the two possibilities of the fan argument, but consider as well that there are markings on the wall that suggest one rotation as opposed to the other. That's how one would figure the truth in such a matter. | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On October 29 2015 03:30 Blazinghand wrote: I hope you appreciate the amount of effort this took btw gummy I seriously do, your awesome, thanks for inviting me back to mafia btw you've been a joy to play with this game : D | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
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