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On October 29 2015 04:21 Xatalos wrote:Btw gumshoe, I'm not sure how much that argument helps, since it kind of just aligns with whatever you otherwise find scummy? Like if you found me and BH scummy, it would just equally align with those reads? But I guess it's worth pursuing whatever ways to solve the game 
yes : P yes it would. But your objectively not scummy, therefore if I tried to tie you to this rayn thing, it just wouldnt work. It only works on hope and onegu cause there is a doubt that they are town.
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Alright I've been staring at Vivax's stuff for a while now and I don't think I'm really getting anywhere. I still like a lot of what he posts this game because his thoughts sound pretty town to me and he posts his thoughts a lot. There have been a few things that I didn't like (his read on me/the way he jumped on ritoky/his avoiding voting GB D2), but I'm not sure if that's just because I disagree with what he's saying. I looked at his meta too but I don't think I got anything out of it, I thought I was feeling town at first but as I looked at it more I think I might have just been confirmation biasing. So I guess in total I feel slightly less sure about him? But not very much.
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Most of GB's posts on Vivax
- "I'm used to see Vivax being paranoid town and him giving a bunch of town reads right out of the blue does not looks like his standard gameplay." #491 (first posts)
- "I disagree with everyone, being confident =/= being straight forward and giving unexplained town passes, especially from a guy that I remember seeing flipping his reads constantly based on tinfoil theories. Here I see a guy with static reads that are never updated" #737 (list post)
- "He has yet to explain the townreads, his activity dropped, his reads are static." #774 (post to rayn D1)
- "He comes back, jokes about stuff, says some random stuff about killing me, but actually talks about nothing else in the game. His read on yamato has vanished, too." #1114 (end of D1)
- "Vivax called Yamato scum for being inactive (in less than 24 hours in the game). When yamato turned against me, Vivax gave him a very weird townread (it felt like a joke, Vivax said it was an actual townread). Yamato is inactive now. Vivax never talks about him anymore. He only supports my lynch when people talk about it." #1808 (D2)
- "Vivax has displayed some townie posts, I must agree, but his overall gameplay seems scummy to me. He doesn't feel engaged to win. He hasn't done anything memorable." #2818 (D3)
I was looking through GB's filter again, and I noticed how his reasons for his read on Vivax really change a lot throughout the game. His actual read is completely static, but the reasons completely change and GB gives no sign of how his read is evolving.
For example, he starts by saying that Vivax isn't paranoid enough, but hasn't mentioned that in a long time. Instead he talks about yamato and how Vivax forgot about his read on him, but then he also didn't mention that again today? The only reasons he's given today are the ones in the last bullet point, which are basically completely unrelated to the ones he's given before.
Basically, if the other reasons from earlier still apply, then why hasn't GB mentioned them at all? And if they don't apply anymore, then why has his read not shown any signs of reevaluation?
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Still going to give ritoky and BH's filters a thorough look to make sure I'm not missing something big, but I think if we lynch GB/Onegu/Hopeless we will AT LEAST get to final three. I think we'll probably just win, but I really don't see any way for two of them to be mafia.
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On October 29 2015 06:47 Chromatically wrote:
Still going to give ritoky and BH's filters a thorough look to make sure I'm not missing something big, but I think if we lynch GB/Onegu/Hopeless we will AT LEAST get to final three. I think we'll probably just win, but I really don't see any way for two of them to be mafia.
*to be town, that is
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Hm yeah, that is a pretty extreme tunnel.... Though he did mention that Vivax has "made some townie posts"? Well, that's a very vague description, I agree. And Vivax has just remained safely scummy throughout the game even if the reasons change :/
Can't say I'm really sad if we solve him today.
Might even vote for him closer to deadline if you think GB is a much better option than Onegu, Chromatically.
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Day 3 Vote Count
Onegu (3): gumshoe, Xatalos, Blazinghand, GlowingBear
GlowingBear (2): Vivax, Chromatically, gumshoe
Not Voting (4): Hopeless1der, Onegu, ritoky, gumshoe
Looks like it's time to sack Onegu for being a traitor!
Day 3 ends in at 22:00 GMT (+00:00).
The quality control list is here.
The automated list counter is here.
Only votes on this list will be counted.
Please mind the deadline as failure to vote will result in a modkill.
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On October 29 2015 08:54 Xatalos wrote:
Hm yeah, that is a pretty extreme tunnel.... Though he did mention that Vivax has "made some townie posts"? Well, that's a very vague description, I agree. And Vivax has just remained safely scummy throughout the game even if the reasons change :/
Can't say I'm really sad if we solve him today.
Might even vote for him closer to deadline if you think GB is a much better option than Onegu, Chromatically.
Yay! I can't argue for Onegu at all, but GB is much surer to me.
I think it might be a good idea for people to consolidate more on one wagon prior to deadline? It seems like most people are pretty okay with Onegu or GB, and I'm a little worried about a situation where the wagons are 4-4 and Hopeless gets the deciding vote or something. Maybe that would deprive us of some voting information but I'm not sure how helpful that is at this point.
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Hopeless has not posted in two real life days, Onegu has posted once this phase 24 hours ago. Not sure what to think of that or if it doesn't matter? Hopeless looks like he's just heading for a modkill (which could theoretically screw us over but he would be lynched at some point I guess). Onegu's been posting so it's strange that he hasn't today.
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wife surprised me with sounders playoff tickets. won't be here until around deadline. WE WONNNNN SDGHDSGHSJGBSDGBKD
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Read ritoky and BH's filters, still town on them. I think it's possible BH is mafia, but pretty unlikely because he's done a lot of analysis/trying to find mafia and is mostly making sense. So I guess he's probably 4th/5th on the list with Vivax (which doesn't say much at this point because I really do think everyone else is town).
So yeah... GB/Onegu/Hopeless.
Don't let this game go full RIP guys.
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On October 29 2015 13:27 ritoky wrote:
wife surprised me with sounders playoff tickets. won't be here until around deadline. WE WONNNNN SDGHDSGHSJGBSDGBKD
Probably should vote buddy!
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Chrom, if I'm mafia with Onegu, why not voting him now?
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I think the scumteam has to be in GB/Onegu/hopeless/ritoky... Chromatically has looked quite good lately, so it's likely not him.
I doubt there's much benefit to clearly consolidating? There's potential to more information if the situation is uncertain (hard choices for scum).
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As for why I included ritoky, it's because his contributions have steadily dropped throughout the game, and maybe rayn was right with his cases. I'll have to reread rayn's stuff before deciding though.
hopeless could be town (or scum), but looks like he's just being lazy and maybe modkilled? I don't think he's the priority in this group.
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##vote: Xatalos
Placeholder, no one in their right mind will vote him.
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im filtering onegu and gb for the time being since those are the wagons.
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Day 3 Vote Count
Onegu (3): gumshoe, Xatalos, Blazinghand, GlowingBear
GlowingBear (2): Vivax, Chromatically, gumshoe
Xatalos (1): Hopeless1der
Not Voting (3): gumshoe, Onegu, ritoky
Looks like it's time to sack Onegu for being a traitor!
Day 3 ends in at 22:00 GMT (+00:00).
The quality control list is here.
The automated list counter is here.
Only votes on this list will be counted.
Please mind the deadline as failure to vote will result in a modkill.
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EPT
