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GlowingBear
Profile Joined May 2014
Brazil12446 Posts
October 29 2015 15:20 GMT
#2921
It should be clear to you guys that there must be at least 1 town wagon since no other lynch was proposed here. I highly doubt mafia wouldn't focus on scumreading someone else by now (almost EOD) if both wagons were mafia.

Gumshoe, why aren't you voting Onegu?
I'm adorable.
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
October 29 2015 15:27 GMT
#2922
Tbh all of GB/Onegu/ritoky have suggested lynches that are "out there" recently.... And dunno what hopeless will do.. But I guess it's hard without any real thread control...
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
October 29 2015 16:05 GMT
#2923
On October 29 2015 14:19 GlowingBear wrote:
Chrom, if I'm mafia with Onegu, why not voting him now?

Not much of a choice is there?

On October 29 2015 20:44 Xatalos wrote:
I think the scumteam has to be in GB/Onegu/hopeless/ritoky... Chromatically has looked quite good lately, so it's likely not him.

I doubt there's much benefit to clearly consolidating? There's potential to more information if the situation is uncertain (hard choices for scum).

I really don't think it's ritoky, but it's hard for me to express why. I think it's a combination of his tone (which sounds really town to me), his willingness to figure out the game (he's been one of the people working consistently on it I feel like), and his paranoia (not just going on autopilot).
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
October 29 2015 16:07 GMT
#2924
On October 30 2015 00:20 GlowingBear wrote:
It should be clear to you guys that there must be at least 1 town wagon since no other lynch was proposed here. I highly doubt mafia wouldn't focus on scumreading someone else by now (almost EOD) if both wagons were mafia.

Gumshoe, why aren't you voting Onegu?

Yeah this is straight up not true, if the team is what people think it is then they have zero pull in the thread to propose lynches (you and Onegu have tried).
gumshoe
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Canada3602 Posts
October 29 2015 16:12 GMT
#2925
##Vote gb

I dont like the tone of his last posts / : the logic hes proposing is just so bad, paticularly bad considering hes one of the first to jump on your dick if you use "wifom'. I'm not sure a townie wouldn't realize how unconvincing they are with arguments like his.
gumshoe bullshitting at 120%~~Prplz
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
October 29 2015 16:22 GMT
#2926
I am here. I am sick I have the flu. Will read some.
Try TL Mafia!!!
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
October 29 2015 16:29 GMT
#2927
On October 29 2015 00:27 Xatalos wrote:
From Onegu :D

Also dont worry people, I will still figure this game out in lylo, I am the best lylo player ever as you all should know by now.




And I am the last 4 games I have been in plus a few before that I have figured the game out in lylo. Even though I have been scum read I figured the game out. 2 times people listened to me and we won the game. 2 times they didnt even though in scum qt they said my logic was correct and the only thing they could do was keep saying over and over it doesnt work like that and people threw the game. VE one time and worse was the game LS threw when HF had a red check on him and we didnt lynch him. IIRC hopeless was scum that game and I figured him out also I may be wrong there I will check.

Hopeless is scum this I am sure.
Try TL Mafia!!!
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
October 29 2015 16:29 GMT
#2928
##unvote
##Vote: GlowingBear


On October 30 2015 01:12 gumshoe wrote:
##Vote gb

I dont like the tone of his last posts / : the logic hes proposing is just so bad, paticularly bad considering hes one of the first to jump on your dick if you use "wifom'. I'm not sure a townie wouldn't realize how unconvincing they are with arguments like his.

Agree with this, and onegu doesnt seem as bad as GB after reading through their filters. GB is constantly throwing around "but what about this scummy thing thats just like me", seems like trying to deflect from himself.
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
October 29 2015 16:32 GMT
#2929
On October 29 2015 00:44 Xatalos wrote:
Dunno... It just feels like he throws scum/townreads around too casually. This Xatalos/hopeless thing now too... Ignoring rayn's scumreads on GB/ritoky.... And instead pushing us two.. Why?



The main reason is because I am scum reading you two more. GB needs looked at also, but I feel multiple people scum read GB maybe he shoots rayn, but only rayn and myself were scum reading you. Rayn had the clout that I dont to actually lynch you.
Try TL Mafia!!!
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
October 29 2015 16:33 GMT
#2930
On October 29 2015 00:50 GlowingBear wrote:
Yeah, I'm voting Onegu.

You've just reminded me of him saying he wouldn't vote Rayn on day1 then proceeds to vote Rayn. Lol



Yeah I have already proved this isnt a scum tell for me. Really weird you pull this out now. And that this is your reason for voting me.
Try TL Mafia!!!
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
October 29 2015 16:42 GMT
#2931
On October 29 2015 03:44 gumshoe wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 29 2015 03:27 Blazinghand wrote:
On October 29 2015 03:10 gumshoe wrote:
Bh, I considered what you said about scum bieng the ONLY ones to be pushing rayn

that would mean a combination of vivax gb xata and ritoky.

I consider xata and ritoky pretty hard town at this point, and vivax and gb arent likely to be scum together

so I think the possibility that scum were town reading rayn is much higher. What ya think?


I am not saying scum were the only ones pushing rayn. I'm just saying your logc, which again, seems to be pretty strange, could be used to prove both "scum were all on rayn" and "no scum were on rayn". If you are using a heuristic or piece of logic and it can prove anything easily, it should be allowed to fail. The problem with this idea that "scum weren't able to lynch rayn, therefore scum are X, Y, and Z" fails because it explains too much. If an explanation can explain literally any outcome, it has no predictive value.

I actually went back and found the quote that first explained this concept to me, so you too can learn:

In Munich in the days of the great theoretical physicist Arnold Sommerfeld (1868–1954), trolley cars were cooled in summer by two small fans set into their ceilings. When the trolley was in motion, air flowing over its top would spin the fans, pulling warm air out of the cars. One student noticed that although the motion of any given fan was fairly random—fans could turn either clockwise or counterclockwise—the two fans in a single car nearly always rotated in opposite directions. Why was this? Finally he brought the problem to Sommerfeld.

“That is easy to explain,” said Sommerfeld. “Air hits the fan at the front of the car first, giving it a random motion in one direction. But once the trolley begins to move, a vortex created by the first fan travels down the top of the car and sets the second fan moving in precisely the same direction.”

“But, Professor Sommerfeld,” the student protested, “what happens is in fact the opposite! The two fans nearly always rotate in different directions.”

“Ahhhh!” said Sommerfeld. “But of course that is even easier to explain.”


--Devine and Cohen, Absolute Zero Gravity, p. 96.



Thats very true, but we have a certain context to clash against my argument, which gives it some utility.

heres the frame my argument provides.

Scum want to win, scum need to mislynch townies, rayn on paper is the most mislynchable townie, but they shot him, so clearly there was some reason that scum were not confident in mislynching him.

There are two possibilities.


1: The majority of Scum are pushing rayn and the rest of town are opposed, which would mean a combination of xatalos, ritoky, gb and vivax, 2 of which, vivax and gb, cant be scum together, and the other 2 arent likely scum based of thier play. so not real hit there.

2: The majority of scum are town reading rayn for varius reasons, and cannot switch to him without contradicting themselves. townies fairly vehemently oposed to rayn bieng scum (hopeless, gumshoe, onegu, bh chromatically)
three of these players, me you and chrom, appear townie from thier play, but hopeless and onegu do fit the mold of a majority scum team that cannot mislynch rayn because they are townreading him.

Basically when you cross refrence scummy play with the argument that most of sum are townreading rayn and therefore cannot mislynch him, and the argument that most of scum are scum reading him therefore they cannot lynch him, this is the only real hit you get.

Does that make sense?

Imagine the two possibilities of the fan argument, but consider as well that there are markings on the wall that suggest one rotation as opposed to the other. That's how one would figure the truth in such a matter.



Your arguement doesnt make much sense because reads can flip. If only scum were town reading him what is to stop their reads from flipping to oh yeah I can see that on a case and voting rayn. Or saying rayn is cancer this game I am going to vote him.

Rayns reads were correct and that is why he was killed. A serious rayn is capable of putting a legit case on scum even if he is being scum read getting that person lynched.

I wasnt surprised rayn was killed. I town read him hard. I agreed with most of his reads.

In a world where I am scum this game I dont kill Rayn, I am not going to kill the only person that is town reading me this game. It would be suicide for me. Killing rayn takes pressure off of the people he was scum reading and lets them put pressure on me. They want this mislynch on me it gets them to lylo.
Try TL Mafia!!!
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
October 29 2015 16:48 GMT
#2932
That vote from hopeless on Xata is so fucking random, If he is going to be around why use a placeholder and why Xata. Then he drops a vote on GB... Why does this give me the heebie jeebies that this is two town wagons...

Can we please vote hopeless?

##Vote: Hopeless
Try TL Mafia!!!
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
October 29 2015 16:50 GMT
#2933
I am laying down. Will try to be around for deadline.

Try TL Mafia!!!
Vivax
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
22304 Posts
October 29 2015 16:56 GMT
#2934
On October 30 2015 01:48 Onegu wrote:
That vote from hopeless on Xata is so fucking random, If he is going to be around why use a placeholder and why Xata. Then he drops a vote on GB... Why does this give me the heebie jeebies that this is two town wagons...

Can we please vote hopeless?

##Vote: Hopeless


Yea I don't really get the placeholder vote, it's just weird but can't really think of a reason why it's something only mafia would do.

And what's your reasoning for townreading GB?
Hopeless1der
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States5836 Posts
October 29 2015 17:01 GMT
#2935
I got warned/reminded for not voting yet. The thread gunning for my modkill makes me feel better about my decision.
gumshoe
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Canada3602 Posts
October 29 2015 17:01 GMT
#2936
On October 30 2015 01:42 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 29 2015 03:44 gumshoe wrote:
On October 29 2015 03:27 Blazinghand wrote:
On October 29 2015 03:10 gumshoe wrote:
Bh, I considered what you said about scum bieng the ONLY ones to be pushing rayn

that would mean a combination of vivax gb xata and ritoky.

I consider xata and ritoky pretty hard town at this point, and vivax and gb arent likely to be scum together

so I think the possibility that scum were town reading rayn is much higher. What ya think?


I am not saying scum were the only ones pushing rayn. I'm just saying your logc, which again, seems to be pretty strange, could be used to prove both "scum were all on rayn" and "no scum were on rayn". If you are using a heuristic or piece of logic and it can prove anything easily, it should be allowed to fail. The problem with this idea that "scum weren't able to lynch rayn, therefore scum are X, Y, and Z" fails because it explains too much. If an explanation can explain literally any outcome, it has no predictive value.

I actually went back and found the quote that first explained this concept to me, so you too can learn:

In Munich in the days of the great theoretical physicist Arnold Sommerfeld (1868–1954), trolley cars were cooled in summer by two small fans set into their ceilings. When the trolley was in motion, air flowing over its top would spin the fans, pulling warm air out of the cars. One student noticed that although the motion of any given fan was fairly random—fans could turn either clockwise or counterclockwise—the two fans in a single car nearly always rotated in opposite directions. Why was this? Finally he brought the problem to Sommerfeld.

“That is easy to explain,” said Sommerfeld. “Air hits the fan at the front of the car first, giving it a random motion in one direction. But once the trolley begins to move, a vortex created by the first fan travels down the top of the car and sets the second fan moving in precisely the same direction.”

“But, Professor Sommerfeld,” the student protested, “what happens is in fact the opposite! The two fans nearly always rotate in different directions.”

“Ahhhh!” said Sommerfeld. “But of course that is even easier to explain.”


--Devine and Cohen, Absolute Zero Gravity, p. 96.



Thats very true, but we have a certain context to clash against my argument, which gives it some utility.

heres the frame my argument provides.

Scum want to win, scum need to mislynch townies, rayn on paper is the most mislynchable townie, but they shot him, so clearly there was some reason that scum were not confident in mislynching him.

There are two possibilities.


1: The majority of Scum are pushing rayn and the rest of town are opposed, which would mean a combination of xatalos, ritoky, gb and vivax, 2 of which, vivax and gb, cant be scum together, and the other 2 arent likely scum based of thier play. so not real hit there.

2: The majority of scum are town reading rayn for varius reasons, and cannot switch to him without contradicting themselves. townies fairly vehemently oposed to rayn bieng scum (hopeless, gumshoe, onegu, bh chromatically)
three of these players, me you and chrom, appear townie from thier play, but hopeless and onegu do fit the mold of a majority scum team that cannot mislynch rayn because they are townreading him.

Basically when you cross refrence scummy play with the argument that most of sum are townreading rayn and therefore cannot mislynch him, and the argument that most of scum are scum reading him therefore they cannot lynch him, this is the only real hit you get.

Does that make sense?

Imagine the two possibilities of the fan argument, but consider as well that there are markings on the wall that suggest one rotation as opposed to the other. That's how one would figure the truth in such a matter.



Your arguement doesnt make much sense because reads can flip. If only scum were town reading him what is to stop their reads from flipping to oh yeah I can see that on a case and voting rayn. Or saying rayn is cancer this game I am going to vote him.

Rayns reads were correct and that is why he was killed. A serious rayn is capable of putting a legit case on scum even if he is being scum read getting that person lynched.

I wasnt surprised rayn was killed. I town read him hard. I agreed with most of his reads.

In a world where I am scum this game I dont kill Rayn, I am not going to kill the only person that is town reading me this game. It would be suicide for me. Killing rayn takes pressure off of the people he was scum reading and lets them put pressure on me. They want this mislynch on me it gets them to lylo.


if you or hopeless were to flip your reads on rayn, to go from "theres no way I would vote him until lylo" and "rayn town for sures so sures that xata is scum"

we would lynch you so godamm fast. So no, you couldn't switch your reads / : you would be far too committed based off your own arguments.
gumshoe bullshitting at 120%~~Prplz
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
October 29 2015 17:04 GMT
#2937
Day 3 Vote Count


GlowingBear (4): Vivax, Chromatically, gumshoe, gumshoe, Hopeless1der
Onegu (3): gumshoe, Xatalos, Blazinghand, GlowingBear
Hopeless1der (1): Onegu
Xatalos (0): Hopeless1der

Not Voting (1): ritoky

Looks like it's time to sack GlowingBear for being a traitor!
Day 3 ends in at 22:00 GMT (+00:00).

The quality control list is here.
The automated list counter is here.
Only votes on this list will be counted.

Please mind the deadline as failure to vote will result in a modkill.
gumshoe
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Canada3602 Posts
October 29 2015 17:06 GMT
#2938
also

In a world where I am scum this game I dont kill Rayn, I am not going to kill the only person that is town reading me this game. It would be suicide for me. Killing rayn takes pressure off of the people he was scum reading and lets them put pressure on me. They want this mislynch on me it gets them to lylo.


Also this is actually total wifom. You might kill Rayn exactly FOR this reason because the way youve set things up is

"as scum I would never kill rayn, therefore im town."

so if you are scum and you do kill rayn to simulate the above logic, apparently that means your town / : see how that doesn't work?
gumshoe bullshitting at 120%~~Prplz
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
October 29 2015 17:12 GMT
#2939
Hopeless1der was warned for this post:

On October 30 2015 02:01 Hopeless1der wrote:
I got warned/reminded for not voting yet. The thread gunning for my modkill makes me feel better about my decision.


Warning for every player: do not talk about or refer to any info / PMs you might have received from the hosting team. Please do not talk about this warning either until post game.
Chromatically
Profile Joined January 2012
United States1700 Posts
October 29 2015 17:20 GMT
#2940
On October 30 2015 01:42 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 29 2015 03:44 gumshoe wrote:
On October 29 2015 03:27 Blazinghand wrote:
On October 29 2015 03:10 gumshoe wrote:
Bh, I considered what you said about scum bieng the ONLY ones to be pushing rayn

that would mean a combination of vivax gb xata and ritoky.

I consider xata and ritoky pretty hard town at this point, and vivax and gb arent likely to be scum together

so I think the possibility that scum were town reading rayn is much higher. What ya think?


I am not saying scum were the only ones pushing rayn. I'm just saying your logc, which again, seems to be pretty strange, could be used to prove both "scum were all on rayn" and "no scum were on rayn". If you are using a heuristic or piece of logic and it can prove anything easily, it should be allowed to fail. The problem with this idea that "scum weren't able to lynch rayn, therefore scum are X, Y, and Z" fails because it explains too much. If an explanation can explain literally any outcome, it has no predictive value.

I actually went back and found the quote that first explained this concept to me, so you too can learn:

In Munich in the days of the great theoretical physicist Arnold Sommerfeld (1868–1954), trolley cars were cooled in summer by two small fans set into their ceilings. When the trolley was in motion, air flowing over its top would spin the fans, pulling warm air out of the cars. One student noticed that although the motion of any given fan was fairly random—fans could turn either clockwise or counterclockwise—the two fans in a single car nearly always rotated in opposite directions. Why was this? Finally he brought the problem to Sommerfeld.

“That is easy to explain,” said Sommerfeld. “Air hits the fan at the front of the car first, giving it a random motion in one direction. But once the trolley begins to move, a vortex created by the first fan travels down the top of the car and sets the second fan moving in precisely the same direction.”

“But, Professor Sommerfeld,” the student protested, “what happens is in fact the opposite! The two fans nearly always rotate in different directions.”

“Ahhhh!” said Sommerfeld. “But of course that is even easier to explain.”


--Devine and Cohen, Absolute Zero Gravity, p. 96.



Thats very true, but we have a certain context to clash against my argument, which gives it some utility.

heres the frame my argument provides.

Scum want to win, scum need to mislynch townies, rayn on paper is the most mislynchable townie, but they shot him, so clearly there was some reason that scum were not confident in mislynching him.

There are two possibilities.


1: The majority of Scum are pushing rayn and the rest of town are opposed, which would mean a combination of xatalos, ritoky, gb and vivax, 2 of which, vivax and gb, cant be scum together, and the other 2 arent likely scum based of thier play. so not real hit there.

2: The majority of scum are town reading rayn for varius reasons, and cannot switch to him without contradicting themselves. townies fairly vehemently oposed to rayn bieng scum (hopeless, gumshoe, onegu, bh chromatically)
three of these players, me you and chrom, appear townie from thier play, but hopeless and onegu do fit the mold of a majority scum team that cannot mislynch rayn because they are townreading him.

Basically when you cross refrence scummy play with the argument that most of sum are townreading rayn and therefore cannot mislynch him, and the argument that most of scum are scum reading him therefore they cannot lynch him, this is the only real hit you get.

Does that make sense?

Imagine the two possibilities of the fan argument, but consider as well that there are markings on the wall that suggest one rotation as opposed to the other. That's how one would figure the truth in such a matter.



Your arguement doesnt make much sense because reads can flip. If only scum were town reading him what is to stop their reads from flipping to oh yeah I can see that on a case and voting rayn. Or saying rayn is cancer this game I am going to vote him.

Rayns reads were correct and that is why he was killed. A serious rayn is capable of putting a legit case on scum even if he is being scum read getting that person lynched.

I wasnt surprised rayn was killed. I town read him hard. I agreed with most of his reads.

In a world where I am scum this game I dont kill Rayn, I am not going to kill the only person that is town reading me this game. It would be suicide for me. Killing rayn takes pressure off of the people he was scum reading and lets them put pressure on me. They want this mislynch on me it gets them to lylo.

Which of his reads did you agree with?
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