Mini Mafia Down Under 3 - Page 16

On July 26 2015 07:13 scott31337 wrote:
Scotty's shitty spreadsheet at the moment -

1 KelsierSC null - questioned me on the VT claim, but it felt weird how he did it.
2 FirmTofu null/scumlean - little posting, nothing sticks out.
3 Onegu named town no CC, going after rsolutin for being angry too early, but she doesn't seem that angry (scummy angry) YET.
4 Snickers others like him but I don't see why? (notably Clarity, rsoul) Calls me mafia - suspicious
5 raynpelikoneet Started off good but has faided, slight town lean
6 Clarity_nl null / slight scum? Wants to lynch me
7 boxerfred Nothing special, six posts of meh - scumlean
8 ObiWanShinobi Didn't see scum motivation from his post to me - little posting - null
9 rsoultin Slight townlean, not too angry - keep an eye to see if she does the magic trick if not just lynch D4.
10 GlowingBear second part d1 looking better, not too angry either - asking townie questions - townlean
11 Palmar townlean for a Palmar d1 day.
12 scott31337 town
13 Hopeless1der scumlean, first post was bad - but suspicious/scummy voters on him so need to watch for that.

On July 27 2015 14:30 rsoultin wrote:
80/80

okay, this is literally my last post of the cycle :/ i'm really bad at this post management thing

never lynch rayn (yeah i know that people prob wouldn't anyway but whatever). he started the ft train and pushed the hell out of it awfully early...even if i wasn't already townreading him, i don't see him bussing an active scummate like this d1...he's a busser but not in this situation lol ><

ksc is nearly as strong a townread. he actually started the pressure on tofu before rayn did, first by calling him out on the palmar push and then in this post when rayn was still focused on scott:




stupid but wondrously awesome reason at the same time to townread GB, on top of him just acting like his normal townie self (with all the positives and negatives that this entails):

^ seriously doubt GB wifoms this in anticipation of FT's flip...and since the replace was before the game, yeah. no shared QT alert

yeah this snickers read is similar lol >< now, snickers was being kinda crazy around the lynch, granted, but i highly doubt he comes in with this post where he assumed that FT had c/pd his role pm if he were scum. it would have to be coordinated and ye...plus, already townreading him anyway for that paranoid schizo thing i mentioned earlier:


^obviously if snickers knows that FT isn't VT that's not going to be his reaction, unless he's being especially clever (more possible than with GB since the train was pretty strong at this point, but i still doubt it)

---

moving on to the next tier...

onegu prob town for the claim (snickers is just wrong on this push) and ye, the meta of like just a few reads tunneled into the ground is holding up -_- annoying bugger xP plus another player early on the wagon

ows i looked particularly close at cause i think his comment on clarity being an objectively bad cop check was shit...but yeah he was really strong on the ft lynch as well and noticed something interesting about clarity/ft associations that i'll be pointing out below

scott...this one i can't qualify so well, but of all the people ft pushed (and he did push several) i feel like scott was the one he pushed the strongest as a counterlynch to himself even before the wagons were down to just these two. i also just feel that his posting seems pretty natural this game and the reasons people are calling him scum are all pretty bad


as for palmar...eh i guess i can see him protecting a scumbuddy who did nothing but buss/tunnel him for the beginning of the game, but i don't find it terribly likely. that's an awful lot of interaction/defending and i don't think palmar is that bad? if anyone can fool me it's him, though. his reads early game seemed pretty natural and lined up with mine pretty well though so ye

bf - so...i was actually tempted to put him in null, but tbh i kind of like how his ksc/gb reads kept changing with new information (and it's really the only reason i have him here instead of there, apart from a i just like people reading clarity scum gutfeel that i'm trying to ignore with both him and palmar, only partially successfully)

Null
hopeless - pretty nothing filter and wanted a scott lynch, though there was a little bit of half-decent comments on onegu i guess

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Clarity is mafia apart from what i've already said about him, there are these two glorious interactions:



So here's my problem with this post. I've got reasons to townread (i didn't expect it to work out this way, but it did, lol ><) pretty much everyone in the game but hopeless and clarity. Here we have clarity "championing" the hopeless wagon and pressuring me in a very incongruous way towards it (incongruous in the sense that he appeared to and still appears to have no real read on hopeless beyond a weak parroting of rayn, instead spending most of his post talking about scott...but oh, scum ft is lynchbait and he'd still lynch hopeless? for being on hopeless and trying to get me to commit, he sure didn't push hard for that lynch)

secondly, we have what obi noted, namely that ft drops clarity's name practically out of the blue when clarity is the other main wagon as being a good lynch without any reasoning. if you look through ft's filter, even though he made it clear he'd lynch clarity, he never actually tried to push him and instead directed more attention to scott/ksc, only voting clarity to save himself

i have another reason that unfortunately i can't really discuss that makes me pretty positive that clarity is mafia, but if these associations, and the clear lack of wanting to push each other are not enough, there's also the simple fact that clarity is doing absolutely nothing to attempt to find scum when i know that he is a much better player than this. even with limited time he should have been able to come up with more than he did instead of voting a player he didn't even bother to really talk about, question or push

TLDR

Strong Townreads
Rayn
KSC
GB
Snickers

Townreads
Onegu
OWS
Scott

Townleans
Palmar
BF

Null
Hopeless

Lynch it with fire!
Clarity

...so ye, i wouldn't be surprised if i'm actually townreading one of the scum cause that's a shit ton more townreads than i expected, but i'd be so happy if i were right lol >< cause that means this is gonna be one hell of an easy game for town -crosses fingers-

post-game cred: ft/clarity/hopeless (can she get the entire scumteam first two games in a row, boys? xP)

---

eh, reviewing what we got from the lynch, i actually understand why people are so adamant on scumreading me

it's wifomy but i really would have to be retarded not to either jump on the ft lynch or try to get scott lynched instead of just sitting there, so if y'all believe i did that, well... -_- i'll try not to take too much offense at it

without a framer, feel free to cop check me if that helps, then let's lynch clarity! \o/

On July 27 2015 14:58 scott31337 wrote:
Give 5 posts to Rsoultin

So Clairty and Hopeless are your two mafia, is that correct?

What about Boxerfred? No mention of him in your post.

On July 30 2015 13:16 rsoultin wrote:
77/80

okay, i'm done waffling

strongest towns

gb
ksc
palmar - just finished rereading his filter and i'm not lynching him this game...like he can continue saying i'm too awful to contest a red check as town if he wants, and accuse me of tmi...i'll just laugh at him and say see i'm a god xP but ye i don't see scum in his filter when i take it in aggregate

strong towns:

hopeless uncc'd cop
scott town by scum pushing/green check

maybe town?

oneg - still kinda trust the meta read/claim but it's time for the step-up
ows - i dunnae how to say it other than i think we're reading the same game off the same script and i don't think scum obi can pull that off. plus lynching scum ya know
snickers - playing some weird combination of ballsy retarded scumgame if he's scum...not sure that's beyond him

that leaves...
bf

so...ye

i'll take a real close look through the bottom four, hopefully before EoN, but i'm coming out around the same place as gb and ksc...which honestly isn't that surprising lol >< my main concern tonight was palmar and to just make up my mind on him if i could. fortunately his posting this game made that easier than expected

On August 05 2015 10:33 rsoultin wrote:
ye

so we have a problem

i have a collection of townreads and a scum to find, and i'm more inclined to trust the strength of the reads based on behavior over claims/role actions

y'all aren't going to like me for bringing this up, but i think we may have to seriously consider scott independent of the green check and take into account that ft may have bussed a scummate for the wifom

if nothing else is true, it's certainly true that scott's investment in this game after getting "confirmed" has been practically nill

onegu's as well, but the difference is onegu's claim will eventually come to kick him in the ass if he's scum (making it even more unlikely for him to make it) and he's not exactly known for investment even as town -_-

eh

i'll consider palmar, gb, and ows but only if someone has something i'm missing, something powerful, that makes them scum? that's where i'm at before the reread i may or may not get to before EoN. with palmar it's tonal and i'm def not 100% on it but at some point i just have to...stop...waffling back and forth on the what-ifs

On August 02 2015 22:30 rsoultin wrote:
notes:

flipped miller+framer strongly suggests there's not further cop hate without a second blue role stronger than named vt...prob not a godfather in the game

i've already said what bugs me about palmar. if he's alive end game you definitely don't sleep on him. but i don't see him voting slam over a town wagon as scum. is it beyond him? no. but it's not ideal scum play and his vote did save gb and lynched scum; it was the deciding vote

ows is town for what i said earlier regarding pushing active framer over inactive goon and actively arguing to keep the lynch there d1

scott very unlikely to be the godfather, and was definitely pushed by scum

gb is a toneread plus his early response to ft...i've said forever that his response to ft never comes from a scummate and was more realistic than snickers', and snickers' flip makes me more inclined to stick to that read @.@

onegu...this is just his town meta? granted it's easily replicable, but with no other claimed/flipped blues he's not someone to even look at i think

ksc def town for the push on slam. no earthly reason to do that as scum. none

---

ye poe has me back at bf

poe has me looking into bf and he's like literally the only player who hasn't lynched scum this game. (no filters are a bitch so this is gonna be gut, sorry ><).

we've got a final scum who needs 4 mislynches. if it's like...anyone but bf they're sitting pretty right now and won't be doing much to rock the boat (unfortunately that's most of the players in this game with the exception of gb pretty much)

but bf, bf will be looking about broadening his options. doesn't want to clear gb. points fingers at ows. there may or may not have been a mention of scott (i think there was but ye filters -_- the other two for sure i'm remembering correctly). that is definitely playing to the wincon of a scum player who had not lynched scum up to that point and needs 3 lynches after this to win. he needs to keep options open instead of narrow them down like the rest of us. it's tonal but it's more scum mindset than town

we know that clarity was calling for a vig shot on himself. i have yet to see any town player do this, btw. palmar and rayn are just fucking wrong on that count and gb is right lol >< we can reasonably believe that clarity does that because he doesn't believe there's an actual vig

framer+goon+goon with a miller is balanced against cop+named vt

scum probably did not have an rb which would make them assume there's no vig...that assumption got my first scum team killed but it's a natural assumption to make (jat, koshi and i are all smart people lol ><) and we definitely beat home the point post-game that it's hideously unbalanced to have a town vig without a scum rb. i doubt hts forgets that

the point being if scum has no rb you can expect wifomy vig shoot me plays from scum. clarity is a prime example. bf just did it and he has to be even more sure since a vig didn't shoot the first two nights

plus i know that clarity/hts were trying to explain bf's scum meta to me as more "reasonable". i'm not 100% on what it means, frankly, but i can definitely attest that his town game was pretty unreasonable and made me see red xP

so ye

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i think he's the lynch, for small things, admittedly, but everyone else has more going for them in the town column
- never on the right side of a vote
- that horrible vig shoot me post
- not being as unreasonable???
- camping out this last game...posts were to keep lynch options open but didn't give me the impression of actually narrowing down to one target, discussing who was actually scum, etc. so this "you must discuss!" thing he's on right now is eeeeeeh

On August 07 2015 16:38 GlowingBear wrote:
Yeah, obi is town. He decided to keep his vote on tofu when clarity was clearly a comfortable lynch for mafia

On August 08 2015 00:29 GlowingBear wrote:
Obi and rsoultin, why aren't you scum reading me?

I KNOW your reasons to call me town. But if you consider voting pattern day1, I should be the most suspicious to you both. I didn't vote tofu nor I voted scott