EPTNewbie Student Mafia XII - Page 3
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
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Half the Sky
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GGs Sulfurus. It wasn't personal <3 | ||
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Vig....ehhhhhh....I'm not sure on this one. Medic, if you exist...well the voting table should clearly indicate whom to save. | ||
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On July 13 2015 07:11 TJHuggins wrote: Wow. Mod-error in town's favor. I'll take it. We pointed that out in page 15. Nothing was changed after the fact. I'd have responded to you but some mods modkill if you post after deadline and as a moderator myself I didn't want to chance that. | ||
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On July 13 2015 07:29 Sulfurus wrote: I don't count this as getting lynched since 4 people didn't vote but regardless gg wp. It's plurality lynch Sulfurus, not majority. There's a massive difference between the two, hopefully someone's telling you that in the obs qt. On July 13 2015 07:14 TJHuggins wrote: I so strongly felt that MD is the most obvious mafia there could possible be... I was going to be so mad if Sulfuras flipped town. Now I'm not so sure since sulfuras was voting on MD. I need to reread Sulfuras posts to see why he was voting on MD. That's part of the problem....there were none. That is how I tagged him! On July 13 2015 07:32 TJHuggins wrote: Also doesn't giving people only a warning for not voting a bit of a bad precedent to set? Isn't this essentially akin to allowing each player to make one non-vote each game? This is a newbie game for a reason. People here (well 10/13) are new to TL. It's trying to get used to our site - kiddie pool style. Even in veteran games some moderators (Artanis, myself, etc) will allow warnings for first offences, and others (e.g. Blazinghand) will directly modkill. Again, the rules are NOT universal, so always read the OP. On July 13 2015 08:12 n00bKing wrote: Would be interested in hearing opinions from others, on whether this would be the best use of a Cop's ability. A null is always statistically more likely to be Town than not. So if a Cop just goes stumbling into that group, he can expect to get a Town check back. The good thing about getting a town check on someone in that group is that you won't mislynch them, when otherwise, it is always tempting to lynch a lurker. But the bad thing about getting a town check on someone in that group is that...even once you know you can trust them, how much help are you really going to get from them? If Nydus were to come back, and we knew he could be trusted, then maybe that would be awesome, having a vet that is known to be Town, for sure. But right now, I don't see how we can bank on Scott/SilentWarrior/WonnaPlay giving us a lot of assistance in reasoning things out, even if they were known to be Town. Grokken and TJ have both been much more active. I'm more curious about whether those guys are actually allies of mine, than I am about whether Scott is. And each is suspicious, in his own way. They both had their vote on Moosy while the Godfather was getting lynched. So that's not great. And then: Grokken - Kelsier hated his list post. I didn't, really. But Kelsier could still be right, even though I didn't see anything. What was more suspicious to me was that when I started to turn thread sentiment against Moosy, Grokken quickly flipped his read on Moosy from Green to Red. TJ - Being pissed about the Sulfurus lynch isn't necessarily alignment-indicative. Because if he were scum & smart, he would raise hell about it in the scum thread, and not here in the main thread, where it paints him in a negative light. But he could have been WIFOM'ing, or he could have been reacting in an emotional moment, without first thinking about how it would be perceived (as this is his first Mafia-by-Forum game, it sounded like). Moreover, there was something specific about TJ's behavior (that I won't bring to light just yet) that I found suspicious throughout all of Day 1. A town-check on this guy would keep me from spending the rest of the game tunneled on him. lol Well here's the thing, there are two ways to play this, if there is a DT in this game. Clearing lurkers or red checking them will help you in LYLO - as scum will push a certain way through a game and then boom late game clearing people may catch them off guard. Alternatively you can also look at people whose current behaviour (if reasonably active) are soemwhat questionable or you cannot get a good read on them or if they appear controversial (like some people are townreading and others are scumreading) then they are also good checks. Given the current game state, I think for example Grokken would be a good check in this category. As for TJ's behaviour I think I know what you might be inferring but we'll see how he progresses N1/D2. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On July 13 2015 08:49 n00bKing wrote: Well HtS was already giving advice to the cop.  hehI think it's worthwhile for people to give advice to pretty much any role that can use an action. The only reason for anyone to talk during the Night Phase is to guide the actions of the Blue Roles. That's it. Otherwise, no one should say anything until a minute before the deadline. Well it never hurts to plan for the next phase. I look at those who haven't voted for instance and I do wonder if some of them were trying to blend in (maybe? IDK, it's too early to tell, ie WP), but they really need to step up if they are town and.... ....the four people who did not vote for the love of everything good esp if you are town, DO NOT FORGET TO VOTE!!!!!!!!! | ||
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On July 13 2015 08:17 MoosyDoosy wrote: nonono Sulfurus was busing me. I'm Mafia too guys plz kill me. XD Alright down to business. Apparently my bait was successful although I wasn't around to catch the slip from Sulfurus. Glad to see that Half the Sky caught it. I'm going to actually work from here on out. Re-reading the thread seriously. LOL... anyhow....if you are town, you are in a good position to tell us who the scummers - if any - were on your wagon. Who do you think they were? | ||
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On July 13 2015 19:55 Fidei86 wrote: Meh, two things: 1) I don't think it necessarily reads that way; and 2) I don't think we should place too much weight on what he said, since technically he shouldn't have said anything. Or the fact that given he's flipped scum, it really should be disregarded as WIFOM. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Town: Fidei, myself, NK Probable town: KSC Town lean/maybe town: MD Null: Ghandi, WP, SW, Grokken Null/Policy: Scott Scumlean: NHM Probable scum: TJHuggins Grokken's thread sentiment point I did query that earlier and I think noob, you mentioned that too, do you think this response makes sense for the read change? Not sure if you missed it. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/488742-newbie-student-mafia-xii?page=11#210 | ||
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On July 13 2015 21:37 Fidei86 wrote: Has anyone ever been in a game with a successful D1 lynch? This is kind of new territory for me, I'm used to going straight through to LYLO with mislynches... Yes, twice, once as each alignment, though. Can you tie Sulfurus to anyone else, maybe? I guess that's what you are asking? | ||
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The short answer is that both individuals in my cases were caught out more or less because of meta. In Linux, the person who got nailed D1 was done so because he was more lurky than his town meta and he didn't followup on important points he made. He also showed a little too much concern for getting killed Night 1 (and he was getting killed N1 a lot) so he made excuses to not play D1. Additionally he made a very awkward turnabout read on a player that claimed blue D1. In Not Themed, the scummer who got lynched did so because he has a known meta where he contributes little and does nothing as scum. The individual who would have gotten lynched otherwise wound up being blue and people didn't lynch him even though his gameplay was scummy, so he wound up being the fallback alternative. The problem for town was that several townies were playing poor so it was easy to take advantage and neither myself nor my remaining teammate were ever caught. TLDR - D1 lynches come down to how organised town is, and why the lynches occur also lend some insight as to how they will progress later in the game. | ||
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On July 13 2015 22:07 Fidei86 wrote: Also, I think this is probably worth saying - if there is a medic, they should 100% try and save HTS this evening. She is probably the most town-read person (maybe along side me), but given that she just nailed Sulfurus in one post, I definitely think she's towns biggest asset right now. She's definitely smarter than me, anyway  Awwwww <3 | ||
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And Tictock would appear to be a relatively easy player to read. I'd know, I coached him as town in NSM10 *happy dance* On July 13 2015 21:41 Fidei86 wrote: @HTS My list is basically exactly the same as yours, which is encouraging. I'm thinking the same on TJH, but I haven't had time to properly filter dive yet. Was there anything in particular you wanted to flag up, so I could keep my eyes open for it? Oh my, I realised I missed this question. Hold on. Grabbing relevant quotes. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler [initial read] + On July 12 2015 01:49 TJHuggins wrote: My initial reads so far is that i am town leaning on Fidei. I like the things he said in relation to spamming, and I think that him relating the perspective to a previous game where he was town feels like he's looking at the game from the perspective of a town. When he responded to HTS regarding talking about anti-spam being easy, he seems genuine. Or maybe it's just because I like his writing. No clue. My initial scum read is Grokken. It's nothing all that strong but I'm getting a wierd feeling about the things he's posted. To me it feels like he is trying to find ways to participate and seem town by chiming in now and again but really has no clue what to write about. I think that one sentence posts that appear to contribute to the game and don't really offer anything just kind of irk me the wrong way. I guess it's worth noting he did write that thing about Dota as well which was also one sentence but that's neither here nor there when it comes to the game I think. When I went back and read the post about him showing off his dota stats that actually reads to me a bit more towny now that I think about it, so not really sure. just an initial read. This post, there's an agenda in the sense that this read lacks context. First quote was part of a joke between him and Ghandi, and nothing should be made of it and TJH tried to. Second quote, there was reason to question NHM and that question isn't for naught. Overall he's making something out of nothing. I also feel he did the same thing when he tried to pin Fidei for the wording on MD earlier. + Show Spoiler [followup - "town prodding"] + On July 12 2015 03:10 TJHuggins wrote: I agree that it was grokken's town prodding question that got me suspicious of him in the first place. Then right after he says "this posts doesn't really offer anything" he then says it's a "town prodding question" (which noob called him out for anyways) so then why did he say before that it doesn't really offer anything? The wording association between those two quotes is really awkward. + Show Spoiler [comment on Sulfurus] + On July 13 2015 07:14 TJHuggins wrote: I so strongly felt that MD is the most obvious mafia there could possible be... I was going to be so mad if Sulfuras flipped town. Now I'm not so sure since sulfuras was voting on MD. I need to reread Sulfuras posts to see why he was voting on MD. Now TJH already had Sulfurus as 2 on his list of scummies so why would he need to reread it - additionally there was nothing Sulfur even said on MD which was the biggest issue I had. + Show Spoiler [Kelsier scumread] + On July 12 2015 23:16 TJHuggins wrote: Kelsier, I'm wondering if you would care to explain what factors weighed in on your decision here to vote for Wonnaplay as opposed to Grokken when from your previous post it appears you considered them equally scummy for the same reason? On July 12 2015 23:18 TJHuggins wrote: I think it's more like: Act like a fool and get town read for it. This one is pretty simple - he appears scumread Kelsier and then he drops that read altogether in his lynch list. Or at least it's not clear why he dropped him or where he stands on him now. TLDR - there's a bit of awkward progression and grasping for straws with the scumreads he's putting in. Also his reaction post-lynch was a bit more subdued and I'm ignoring the issues he's had with the mods, I'm more specifically talking about the "mod error I'll take it" post. | ||
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Town: Fidei, myself, NK Probable town: KSC Town lean/maybe town: MD Null: Ghandi, WP (cracking his latest post) Scott (scumreads pending) Grokken Tictock (replacement/additional material pending) Scumlean: SW (latest post okay, but possible distancing d1?) Probable scum: TJHuggins (aforementioned) Would like to see where some of you are getting the Ghandi town reads - still at null for me and I can't see where the clear town agenda is coming from. The policy lynch post/stance can easily be said by scum, unless people are light townreading him for his tone at the game's opening. This post is noncommittal. From a town perspective it may be understandably so or he could be scum struggling for a read. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/488742-newbie-student-mafia-xii?page=9#162 SW I have one reservation on him. There might be some distancing going on. I checked his filter again. There wasn't a weigh in on MD although the only thing SW said d1 was that he'd rather NHM over MD get lynched. However, look at his filter - first 5 posts on first page of his filter were before the lynch. His two posts on voting NHM were after my Sulfurus tag, and he makes zero mention one way or other on Sulfurus. Furthermore looking at votes, scum do and can hide on as solo votes, and a bit more apparent in newbie games (veterans are a bit more careful) so seeing SW solo voting nhm might be something to think about. If he posted his vote/observation on NHM before my tag or if he'd taken any stance on Sulfurus I'd have less reason to suspect him, but him not appearing to take a stance at all on Sulfurus is a red flag. (His last post prior to EoD was 56m prior to lynch, and returned 1h after lynch, first stance on Sulfur was 1h25m after lynch.) So alone his latest post may be wrong but that combined with a solo vote and lack of a stance anywhere prior to lynch has me reason to slight scumlean him for now. If TJH should happen to flip scum subsequently then SW becomes to me, that more suspicious. Sidenote - you said dinner Tictock? Sounds like you are in Europe? Whereabouts? Safe travels home tomorrow in any case. | ||
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