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On July 20 2015 22:10 rsoultin wrote:
@ruxx...i really need you to explain your masons thought process to me and when you thought they were no longer masons
Mason read on clarity:
First time I mentioned it in thread was day 1:
On July 07 2015 07:47 ruXxar wrote:
A thought just struck me about HF and clarity.
Willing to give clarity some more time.
Top 2 scum atm:
Trfel
Rsoultin
##Vote Trfel
Poked him about it N1 to see where he stood on HF(#scumslip):
On July 09 2015 03:57 ruXxar wrote:
@clarity: if I said I wanted to shoot HF tonight, would you be upset? On July 09 2015 04:10 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2015 03:57 ruXxar wrote:
@clarity: if I said I wanted to shoot HF tonight, would you be upset? This question is insanely dumb on so many levels, why are you asking it? Please explain what you're hoping to get out of this?
The fact that his instant reaction wasn't "don't shoot HF" made me think it was less likely that they were mason partners.
On day 2 when he started trying to solve the game with the cops / checks etc is when I started getting a town-read on him. After that the mason thought sort of left my mind and got replaced with just a regular town-read.
I didn't see any further interaction between them would lead me to think they were masons.
I wasn't here because of IRL commitments + preparing for first workday after vacation.
I was reading now and then on my phone.
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I also don't think HTS is scum.
She could've hammered EBH if she wanted to and no one would've scum-read her for it. I think EBH is town -> HTS is town.
rsoultin (5): boxerfred, ruXxar, XEliteBlueHunter69X, oatsmaster, WaveofShadow
XEliteBlueHunter69X (5): Clarity_nl, OWS, trfel, breshke, rsoultin
Clarity_nl (1): HTS
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On July 21 2015 05:35 rsoultin wrote:
eh i'm going to have to crosscheck that
ruxx, an exercise! \o/ pretend i'm town for a short while
who is scum?
Boxerfred, wave, EBH.
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I'm starting to think the breshke JK claim could be false.
1-shot jailer with no way to ever verify it being true?
That's basically a free town-read for the rest of the game.
People are naturally hesistant to lynching PR claims, and the fact that there are 2 RBers in the game makes the claim even more believable.
The fact that he switched off rsoultin also points in the direction of him being scum.
Does this make OWS scum? Not necessarily. OWS could be town and mafia could just NK him last to win the game.
It's a believable JK target so it fits into the fake-claim.
rsoultin (5): boxerfred, ruXxar, XEliteBlueHunter69X, oatsmaster, WaveofShadow
XEliteBlueHunter69X (5): Clarity_nl, OWS, trfel, breshke, rsoultin
Clarity_nl (1): HTS[/QUOTE]
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On July 21 2015 06:51 boxerfred wrote:
ah okay, didn't read those explanations. makes sense. but could also be a "don't get me hanged" thing. another possibility would be that both EBH and rsoul are scum.
however in every of those scenarios, rsoul is scum. lynch rsoul. easy. kk?
Yep.
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Damn it.
In my mind mafia most likely: Rsoultin, Trfel, Clarity.
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On July 21 2015 09:00 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On July 20 2015 22:10 rsoultin wrote:
bueno, so i'm at a scumteam of
clarity/wave/bf
it's a bit wifomy, but i really don't see ebh as a stupid enough player to allow himself to get lynched as scum just to protect scummate clarity...because clarity almost definitely is the next phase's lynch if he flips scum heh >< and there's really no other scum-motivated explanation for his play last phase I think I really like this read. I don't know what to make of ruXxar's logic being so incorrect. And him missing End of Day without warning, then coming back and just being apparently frustrated for the no-lynch. It sort of feels like mafia getting lazy near the end of the game, but I really don't know. Also, it seems that my list post was pretty stupid, as most people have the same scumreads as me. Oh well.
How is my logic incorrect?
In what world does mafia NOT hammer a townie with 5 afk votes on him?
No world if you ask me.
This makes the game really simple and I see only 2 possible solutions:
World #1:
Rsoul is mafia.
The mafia team is rsoul, clarity and trfel.
World #2:
Rsoul is town.
All 3 mafia are already voting on her.
The mafia team is BF, Wave and EBH.
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On July 21 2015 16:18 Clarity_nl wrote:
Trfel your whole "scum don't care if they lynch scum" argument is dumb. You're right there are the same amount of days but the amount of info from any of the 3 scum flipping will likely solve the game.
You misread, what he's saying is that for mafia there is a neglible difference between a no-lynch and a mis-lynch on town.
I'm still trying to make sense of how that fits with yesterdays voting.
Can we safely make the assumption that the scum team was aware of this and not really caring one way or the other?
If we do, then the only safe assumption about yesterday is the fact that mafia wanted to avoid a mafia lynch.
I'll give you my thoughts after work tonight.
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I've been thinking more about the worlds I figured out yesterday and how they relied on scum wanting to hammer mafia.
After trfel presented the argument that scum would do just fine with a no-lynch, I went back and looked at how teams could align if mafias primary goal was to not lynch one of their own.
This is world #3:
Rsoultin is town.
Mafia is : Boxerfred, wave + trfel/clarity.
In this world trfel and clarity are not the same alignment.
Clarity/trfel and ebh are not the same alignment.
I'm more inclined to believe that trfel is the scum on this team due to the fact he's the only one to present the logic that a no-lynch is just fine for mafia.
(But why would he need to tell us in the thread you ask? It's a wifom play, none of him or his partners are in danger of getting voted out. He gets town cred for trying to solve the game).
Clarity would be scum due to the way he just left his vote on EBH and went afk.
He did say he was going afk, but it fits really well with a mafia plan of a no-lynch.
However he later seemed unaware of the scum benefit of a no-lynch.
I do find it hard to believe that boxer fred is mafia with the way he's been dropping dumb tells about scum mechanics though.
Either way trfel and clarity fit in both world #2 and #3 as mafia.
Clarity already has a train on her and the current votes line up with my #3 scum team.
Right now I'm convinced there is a mafia between trfel and clarity.
I'll have to review a couple more things before I decide.
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I switched my vote to clarity for now.
Lynching into clarity/trfel is the best chance we have of hitting scum IMO.
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On July 22 2015 17:45 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2015 17:17 ruXxar wrote:
I switched my vote to clarity for now.
Lynching into clarity/trfel is the best chance we have of hitting scum IMO. can you give me a single reason that trfel is mafia?
PoE.
He's mafia in one of my three worlds and has a 50% chance of being mafia in another.
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@Rsoultin:
Actions and motivations speak louder than words.
You can fake words, you can't fake votes.
To not get stuck in a web of uncertainty I need to ground myself in some solid assumptions that can form the basis of my reads.
My assumptions about scum was this:
#1) Scum does not want to risk scum getting lynched if they can avoid it.
#2) Scum will hammer town if it does not bring them negative exposure.
The fact that rsoultin sat with 5 afk votes all day and no one hammered her was an extremely strong point for her being scum.
The fact that the 5 people sitting on her never switched off her is a strong point for the people voting on her being town.
If rsoultin was scum and she was being bussed, her team members would've switched off her to make sure she didn't run the risk of getting hammered by town.
This led me to my scum-team of : Rsoultin - Clarity - Trfel.
My previous reads all got messed up when Trfel pointed out that scum is fine with a no-lynch as well.
The question still remains whether mafia was aware of this and playing according to this. I can't know for sure, but I'm not going to assume the scum-team is stupid.
So my new working assumptions are these:
#1) Scum does not want to risk scum getting lynched if they can avoid it.
#2) Scum are fine with either a mislynch or a no-lynch.
Using these assumptions, the fact that rsoultin didn't get hammered is not a scum-tell, since mafia is fine with a no-lynch.
This means that the people voting on rsoultin are no longer town-cleared for voting on scum.
The fact that mafia are fine with a no-lynch means that they have no need to make any strong pushes unless town are consolidating on mafia.
This means that the people afking and not pushing hard for a push are more suspect.
I don't think trfel and EBH are scum together. Trfel would've hammered EBH if HTS didn't switch off.
Trfel also really wanted EBH to hammer clarity, which I don't think trfel does if he's scum with clarity.
The lines become really blurry at this point, but my 2 strongest town-reads I want to hold on to are:
-Boxerfred is town.
-Oatsmaster is town.
With these 2 as town and my own arbirtrary judgement of each persons actions I can form a lot of scum-teams, however my strongest scum-teams all things considered are these:
#1) Rsoultin, Clarity, Trfel.
#2) Clarity, wave, EBH
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Individually I still think rsoultin is the scummiest, but clarity fits in both worlds.
The lines are really blurry at this point, and I hate trfel for bringing the no-lynch outcome to my attention and shattering my simple world view.
Doubt is seeping into my head as my logic is washed out by the possibilities.
My gut still tells me to lynch rsoultin, but I think clarity fits in both worlds.
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On July 23 2015 00:37 Clarity_nl wrote:
So either I'm scum with rsoultin and I'm pushing her today, or I'm scum with EBH and I just afk'd my vote on him yesterday when he looked the clear lynch.
Try to explain that one.
You afk'd your vote on EBH when he had 0 votes. Doesn't mean much.
You're not pushing on rsoultin, you still think she's town. You're only voting her since there's no other options.
On July 22 2015 07:26 Clarity_nl wrote:Show nested quote +On July 22 2015 07:15 rsoultin wrote:On July 22 2015 06:48 Clarity_nl wrote:
I'm pretty confident hts is town, so if we're both town then yeah scum is probably cackling, but honestly I feel most of town just kinda handed it to them. I'd be pretty impressed if hts is scum.
Honestly though I don't see how doing any work at this point will get us anywhere. If it's a town on town wagon we can't win the game anyway. I think I played ok this game. You? lol people want to lynch me for scumreading/fighting with hf is essentially what it comes down to so yeah, i think i've played alright this game...apart from that :/ i dunnae if i'd play it any differently? it's not like i tried to fight with him lol >< Nah I think you looked townie from the fights with hf (I realize I've changed my opinion on this often). I mean, I think you're probably capable of playing a good scumgame. Are you scum this game? Ugh, honestly it's hard to tell, take it as a compliment. If I had to put money on it I'd say you're town, although that's on your play alone, when it comes to poe... it's a toss up.
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Give me some potential scum-teams you're seeing then.
If it's not you, then who?
Try to put together a team of 3 that makes sense in your world.
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On July 23 2015 01:17 Clarity_nl wrote:
WoS, rsoultin, trfel
WoS, trfel, ruXxar
are the most likely.
Could you give a short explanation of why those teams fit together?
I also don't see EBH on your lists, what happened to him?
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What's bothering me about trfel is the fact that he was the only one that pointed out that scum would be content with a no-lynch. And then I think : "Why would scum say something that incriminates himself" and of course they wouldn't, except for the fact that since scum wouldn't say that, we think he's town.
So it turns into wifom city and I can't really use it to determine alignments either way.
It's just that I can't step away from the thought that the natural reaction for scum is to lynch town.
Like, if I was to list the people I think are smart enough to reason out the line of thinking that a no-lynch is prefered over a mis-lynch it's basically only Trfel and WoS amongst all the people here.(no offense to the rest)
Also the trfel / rsoultin association has been so strong for so long.
I think that a Rsoultin / wos / trfel team is not out of the question. It fits pretty well to be honest.
My only resistance is the fact that wave hammered rsoultin and also risked rsoultin getting hammered by town when she was left with 5 votes all day, which makes a wave / rsoultin team look very unlikely :/
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On July 23 2015 02:23 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2015 02:21 ruXxar wrote:
What's bothering me about trfel is the fact that he was the only one that pointed out that scum would be content with a no-lynch. And then I think : "Why would scum say something that incriminates himself" and of course they wouldn't, except for the fact that since scum wouldn't say that, we think he's town.
So it turns into wifom city and I can't really use it to determine alignments either way.
Ive never found this to be too accurate, it doesnt hurt mafia to say that.
Yeah, that's what I'm thinking too.
When I played scum last game, when we did some smart stuff, I actually was one of the first to put the ideas out there before anyone else, just to make it look like I was trying to consider all the possibilities.
The fact is that it's very unnatural for town to even consider that line of thinking of whether a no-lynch is as good as a mis-lynch.
It's not in your natural path of thinking unless you are scum.
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On July 23 2015 02:30 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2015 02:21 ruXxar wrote:
What's bothering me about trfel is the fact that he was the only one that pointed out that scum would be content with a no-lynch. And then I think : "Why would scum say something that incriminates himself" and of course they wouldn't, except for the fact that since scum wouldn't say that, we think he's town.
So it turns into wifom city and I can't really use it to determine alignments either way.
It's just that I can't step away from the thought that the natural reaction for scum is to lynch town.
Like, if I was to list the people I think are smart enough to reason out the line of thinking that a no-lynch is prefered over a mis-lynch it's basically only Trfel and WoS amongst all the people here.(no offense to the rest)
Also the trfel / rsoultin association has been so strong for so long.
I think that a Rsoultin / wos / trfel team is not out of the question. It fits pretty well to be honest.
My only resistance is the fact that wave hammered rsoultin and also risked rsoultin getting hammered by town when she was left with 5 votes all day, which makes a wave / rsoultin team look very unlikely :/ There were so many discussions over the number of lynches and potentially no-lynching in the thread, I'm positive that the mafia figured it out. When I played as mafia, I always wanted to know how many more mislynches I needed (so I could know when I could stop playing). RuXxar, can you please stop making association reads and assumptions and make your reads primarily based on whether or not their play fits a mafia motivation?
I already did that, read my last big post.
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Like I already said before to clarity, at this point I'm not going to vote for people unless I can fit them into a world of three.
Just lynching the scummiest person is not going to win you the game. I've seen enough times how the towniest looking people are actually scum.
I'm trying to be as logical as I can about this and try to not let emotions get in the way of my decisions here.
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On July 23 2015 02:43 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2015 02:36 ruXxar wrote:
Like I already said before to clarity, at this point I'm not going to vote for people unless I can fit them into a world of three.
Just lynching the scummiest person is not going to win you the game. I've seen enough times how the towniest looking people are actually scum.
I'm trying to be as logical as I can about this and try to not let emotions get in the way of my decisions here. On the contrary, lynching the scummiest people WILL win you the game, and that is the best way to do it. The key is how you use the word "scummy". Some things are commonly called "scummy", such as being inactive, making bad posts, making bad reads, having logic gaps, and lots of things that are objectively bad play. However, these things don't necessarily make someone scum. If you simply lynch the objectively "worse" players, who are playing objectively "worse", you will probably lose the game. But if you lynch based on mafia motivation and reads which are truly alignment indicative, lynching the "scummiest" players (by these standards) is a thousand times better than using unflipped associations.
I couldn't agree more.
It's about what people define as scummy and I've tried to challenge this idiom a couple times because people just try to look at who plays the most anti-town and define that as scummy play, when anti-town and mafia motivated are two completely different things.
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EPT
