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I don't even...
Let's follow onegus story and see how ridiculous it is.
First you said this day 1:
On June 18 2015 23:40 Onegu wrote:
I dont care if the claim is townie. Dont give 2 shits. LS needs to die so he learns a lesson for future games. I am still reading this huge ass thread... On June 18 2015 23:43 Onegu wrote:
Dont give 2 shits once again. Dont care his alignment. I care about him stopping this. On June 18 2015 23:54 Onegu wrote:
Also I will be honest I think LS is town. On June 19 2015 06:49 Onegu wrote:
LS still needs to die. Dont worry I dont plan on being useless all game... On June 19 2015 23:04 Onegu wrote:
again dont care if he is town either, want to lynch LS
Note the red line.
Yet somehow you couldn't let go of your idea of wanting to "policy lynch" LS, so after the greencheck on LS comes in you have to make up some other excuse to confirm your confirmation bias.
"Oh right, he was framed or is a GF."
On top of that you believe that HF is a miller or got framed.
Why don't you just tell me the lottery numbers for next week too?
Like, do you realize how seriously unlikely your scenarios are?
I was going to vote for HF tomorrow. After this, I really want to vote for you instead.
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I don't think I can believe anything that onegu says anymore.
He's just too far gone in a world that makes absolutely no sense.
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Maybe it's something wrong with me for thinking too rational about it.
I'd like to hear what everyone else thinks.
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On June 28 2015 04:13 Onegu wrote:
It was LS checked N1 and HF N2 they werent checked on the same night. Why is my thoughts so off? LS could have been framed N1 and HF could have been framed N2. Or HF is miller. There are multiple things that could fuck with a cop this game.
Yes, and you choose the most unlikely one just to make it fit into your world.
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On June 28 2015 07:07 VayneAuthority wrote:
alright so im most suspicious of damdred and onegu
red check on holyflare so up to you guys to decide on that. I assume hes mafia just by virtue of being alive.
Look for inconsistencies in people's reads from earlier in the game and press them for why they changed their reads, see what kind of BS people come with and that should lead you to the mafia.
Assume im dead tonight, gl
VA, who are the strongest players still alive?
It could give a clue to who the mafia are since they're still alive.
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The only one clearly sticking out is HF.
I have no clue about the rest.
I've only played 1 game with you damdred, and you were afk half the game.
Geript claimed you were one of the strongest players in that game, but you really didn't do much that game.
You know what, fuck it. I'll just estimate it myself.
It'll only lead to a bad atmosphere if I start ranking people.
Carry on then 
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On June 28 2015 07:07 VayneAuthority wrote:
alright so im most suspicious of damdred and onegu
red check on holyflare so up to you guys to decide on that. I assume hes mafia just by virtue of being alive.
Look for inconsistencies in people's reads from earlier in the game and press them for why they changed their reads, see what kind of BS people come with and that should lead you to the mafia.
Assume im dead tonight, gl
What about damdred's play is making you suspicious?
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On June 28 2015 07:29 Damdred wrote:
Lol I am strong when I have time.
But talk me through what you are thinking rux and why was who is strongest important?
I sort of forgot about this, but VA brings up a good point.
The longer the game goes while the strong players stay alive(through NK's) the more likely it is that they are mafia.
In this game the NK's were:
Night 1: KelsierSC, a Sherpa (Town Vanilla), has been nightkilled.
Night 2: Breshke, a Sherpa (Town Vanilla), has been nightkilled.
Night 2: ritoky, a Sherpa (Town Vanilla), has been nightkilled.
Night 3: rsoultin, as Pasang Lhamu (Mason), has been nightkilled.
This tells me nothing right now since I have no idea who these people are outside of this 1 game, and I only really got to see rsoultin play. I know that rsoultin is a strong player, so it makes sense that she was NK'd.
For mafia the order of NK's is something along the line of : Blue roles -> People on the right track -> Strong players.
For tonight it's probably not going to matter since most likely VA will die if he's a true blue.
But looking at the strongest players left alive it would in some capacity make sense that the longer the game goes the more likely it is that the strongest players left alive are mafia.
Mafia would rather end up with a bunch of uncertain, timid, wishywashy, non-reasoning bunch of people that are easy to manipulate(Not meaning to offend anyone here).
From that point of view it might be worth looking into it just to keep all possibilities open and see if we can glean anything useful from it.
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And like I said, since I barely know anyone here I can't really make that analysis.
The only one on my radar right now is HF, while everyone else has just mostly been lurking/afk making it hard for me to judge them.
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On June 28 2015 07:43 Damdred wrote:
No that's not the correct play at all.
Not in lylo- _-
What is the correct play then damdred?
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On June 28 2015 07:58 Damdred wrote:
The correct play is to lynch the scummiest player.
If you lynch hf do it for a real reason not just a red check as in a totally closed setup doesn't mean quite as much.
For example why would scum team totally sacrifice mig for hf there? Idk what the point is except we go gb, mig then hf in that scenario.
It looks much more likely atm that role cop gb drew Out vayne and we have a mislynch in hf incoming.
Could you explain this sentence? I know that it's possible to be framed or miller, but still that's a pretty low chance.
According to your logic I would be voting for Onegu / shockey. Most likely Onegu. Which wouldn't feel bad at all to me.
I guess since there are 3 mafia left and we *have* to lynch correctly every day, we should go for the safest option first. If we get even 1 incorrectly we lose and the game is over.
Then it's really up for discussion though what you would consider as the scummiest player.
Can having a redcheck on you be considered scummy? I think it could be argued that it is, but it seems I'm pretty lonley in that view.
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On June 28 2015 08:04 Damdred wrote:
I'm pretty sure hf will be around until 2 v 1 if we get to that point.
I have to look through hf filter a bit to see if I see anything. But right now time is better spent getting thoughts out or questioning any inconsistencies you find
What makes you sure HF will be around for so long?
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Why wouldn't they just mislynch him now?
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If you could win the game right now, why wait until later when he has been able to figure out who the mafia are?
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We still have a lot of time left. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
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Ok, so I put together everyone's scumreads since I asked people to discuss them some pages back.(The list might not be 100% accurate)
This is the overview :
ruXxar (2) : Damdred, Onegu
Fidei (0) :
Vayne (1) : Damdred,
LightningStrike (1) : Onegu
NydusHerMain (0) :
Onegu (5) : Ruxxar, Damdred, Shockey, Vayne, Shockey
Holyflare (4) : Ruxxar, Fidei, Damdred, Vayne
Damdred (3) : Shockey, HF, Vayne
Shockeyy (4) : Ruxxar, Damdred, Lightningstrike, Nydus
From this we can see that Onegu, HF, Shockey and damdred are the top suspects.
One interesting observation is how everyone has at least 1 scumread between those 4 except for onegu.
Another observation is how Onegu and damdred are the only ones that have any suspects outside of those 4.
I'm not really sure what to make of this list at the moment, but at least it's easier to see where people stand.
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I see I listed shockey twice on Onegu, woops!
ruXxar (2) : Damdred, Onegu
Fidei (0) :
Vayne (1) : Damdred,
LightningStrike (1) : Onegu
NydusHerMain (0) :
Onegu (4) : Ruxxar, Damdred, Shockey, Vayne
Holyflare (4) : Ruxxar, Fidei, Damdred, Vayne
Damdred (3) : Shockey, HF, Vayne
Shockeyy (4) : Ruxxar, Damdred, Lightningstrike, Nydus
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I've already judged people off their plays and given my reasons for that.
Right now I'm looking for extra information beyond that.
Maybe it's useful, maybe it's not.
But if I can even adjust the certainty of my vote by a few %, then it's useful to me.
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On June 28 2015 09:05 Holyflare wrote:
no you haven't you've just said i'm a red check and left it at that and based none of that on my play which will in the end lose the game
On June 27 2015 20:42 ruXxar wrote:
I like you HF. More than the afk lurkers doing nothing. If it wasn't for the redcheck I'd almost definitely label you as town.
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On June 28 2015 09:16 Holyflare wrote:
right so because you're sticking to an arbitrary red check you're ignoring the game play
Correct.
I've heard multiple times that you are *the* best scum player on TL.
It's not hard for me to imagine the best scum player on the site shitting town rainbows everywhere.
You call the red-check arbitrary, but you can't just erase the fact that it happened.
I'll give you props for playing well no matter what alignment you are.
I'm not blaming you for being a good player.
I'll be more pissed at the person we end up lynching if he turns out to be town, and he just didn't bother to actually play the game.
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EPT
