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[M][N]Holy Guardians Chapter 1 - Page 80

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
June 09 2015 17:11 GMT
#1581
Can people start posting where their votes are going to fall at the moment? I think it's probably best to get those now, so we can discuss them, since we seem pretty fractured.

##VOTE: Ticktock
NydusHerMain
Profile Joined May 2011
Canada492 Posts
June 09 2015 17:14 GMT
#1582
Onegu/Chocolate, leaning on Chocolate.
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
June 09 2015 17:59 GMT
#1583
I'm on Chocolate.

Damdred moves slightly up with the ninja post and basically matched my train of thought.
Fidei seems to be looking at other alternatives and today's posting seems townier, slight up as well.
Onegu moves downward-We've given you three days - Please give us something, or who else beyond Damdred since Shen is town. Probably could vote him as well today
Where you at VE? You have some questions in the thread as well.?!?!
Tictock still looks good, thinking about milo , expanding his thoughts - etc.
Milo is moving slightly downward, carrying this vote shit too much, and was going to light a flame on him today if I was still alive. Tictock has good reasons to wait a day on you, and I agree, Chocolate looks better.
NHM - ??? - Wants to vote chocolate though


My order would be -
Tictock
Milo
VE
Damdred
Fidei
NHM
Onegu
Chocolate
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
June 09 2015 18:13 GMT
#1584
We 100% should have lynched Onegu on day 1. We're now in a situation where he's the obvious lynch victim, but it's just as easy for mafia to push to lynch him as an easy ML. Hell, I just riddled out why it's an easy thing for the mafia to push, and I'd still probably support it. There's a lesson here kids - LYNCH ALL LURKERS, but do it early, before you end up in this shitty situation.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
June 09 2015 18:20 GMT
#1585
Actually, I'm starting to think that even if we lynch elsewhere, the mafia will still NK Onegu. At least eliminating someone else might conceivably give us useful information. Lynching Onegu just suggests that the mafia are as tired of him as townies are.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
June 09 2015 18:20 GMT
#1586
Sorry, that should be "NKing Onegu just suggests..."
Chocolate
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States2350 Posts
June 09 2015 18:41 GMT
#1587
On June 09 2015 17:54 Tictock wrote:
I realized I haven't looked at Choco's filter lately...

And now i know why. There has been like one page of filter since EoD1... this is D3 now right?

Most of that is excuses and some other stuff. Here is what I picked out as interesting...

His first effort at doing something after disappearing after D1.
Show nested quote +
On June 08 2015 00:25 Chocolate wrote:
Though I think GGT may just be trying to exonerate himself if I get lynched today
In fact I feel that if I die and flip town a milo/fid/GGT team could be quite possible


Which flips pretty quick...
Show nested quote +
On June 08 2015 03:44 Chocolate wrote:
Actually after thinking about it I don't think milo is scum, you guys are right in that whatever he did at the end of the day is pretty indicative of alignment (though do recall he didn't actually change his vote)

Hopefully I have some time in the next few hours to make a vote, if not sorry


Then he takes this stand...
Show nested quote +
On June 08 2015 05:09 Chocolate wrote:
I'm voting TT

Don't wanna vote GGT because I think he's town.

GGT makes a compelling case (I know this is a shitty reason to vote someone but I had no time today) and since I think he's town I'm going TT

Really sorry for not being more productive, when I get back home I promise I'll kick the posting up a notch

Really? Choco thinks GG has the most compelling case D2? Wasn't he scumming GG?

What is Choco thinking himself though?
Show nested quote +
On June 09 2015 01:41 Chocolate wrote:
I've been reading the filters of both VE and TT from d1. I'm on a phone so it would be hell on earth for me to do a shitton of quoting so here it goes:

Both call each other town pretty early on
Both push votes on townies (though of course I am not confirmed townie)
As soon as I park a very early vote on TT, VE scum reads me
I'm pretty sure all of TTs d1 list (GG, me, milo, SL) is town and gives him flexibility to bandwagon as he pleases
Additionally, although his posts regarding me are all cautious (need to read more, you are all three probably town) he puts me second on his list

I'll read n1 and d2 soon too but again I'm on my phone so it takes me a while to structure a post adequately
Still not sure who third scum is, at this point I'm finding damdred unlikely

There he goes back on VE suddenly...

He also threw out this weak read on Shen
Show nested quote +
On June 08 2015 05:18 Chocolate wrote:
Actually I don't think Shen is mafia for this reason

If I were scum I'd never be as inactive as SL was the first day, even if I were about to get replaced
Shen being very active today tells me more that he is trying to do town more of a service than dispel the read people were getting on sl

He was also pushed moderately day1 before and after I brought it up which I don't have a good reason to feel suspicious but strikes me as fishy (though I do recognize that I was part of that crowd)


Sorry it's not much of a case... but that's all there was in his filter.

The flip in his reads looks pretty odd to me. It weakens my idea of Milo and Choco being scum partners that Choco would even suggest Milo as scum, but he takes back to read fairly fast so I'm not sure. He also flips really hard on GG while giving no reasons.

I also dislike how VE just suddenly pops back up in Choco's scum reads. I find it especially interesting because it looks like he does this AFTER he starts scumming me, then gives some weak association to backup why.

Honestly none of it looks good.

Ve has been a pretty strong scum read of mine for a while, I just haven't been able to convince anyone else for a while so it's not something I'm going to keep pushing
Chocolate
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States2350 Posts
June 09 2015 18:42 GMT
#1588
On June 09 2015 17:59 Tictock wrote:
I think I'll stop there for the night.

I'm starting to like the idea of a scumteam of Choco, Milo, and Fidei atm...

Milo being scum makes a lot more sense if Choco is scum. I could also see Fidei being on the team since he has been supporting Choco a fair bit for very little reason.

Funny, I think all of these people are town

You really do have such a good track record of reads, you know that? It's certainly suspicious to always be right, but even moreso IMO of always being wrong
Chocolate
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States2350 Posts
June 09 2015 18:53 GMT
#1589
I went back to look at the first day of reads

All of TT's scum reads were either quickly withdrawn (KS, ritoky, damdred) confirmed town(SL, GG, arguably milo) and me

Now, it's not conclusive evidence at all, but I think this is pretty damning. TT initially was only leveling accusations at people who were town (other than me, damdred, and arguably milo, who we are not sure about).

All of our flips so far have been town so this is true of lots of people. However, ALL BUT THREE of these 7 people are confirmed town.
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
June 09 2015 18:58 GMT
#1590
On June 10 2015 03:41 Chocolate wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 09 2015 17:54 Tictock wrote:
I realized I haven't looked at Choco's filter lately...

And now i know why. There has been like one page of filter since EoD1... this is D3 now right?

Most of that is excuses and some other stuff. Here is what I picked out as interesting...

His first effort at doing something after disappearing after D1.
On June 08 2015 00:25 Chocolate wrote:
Though I think GGT may just be trying to exonerate himself if I get lynched today
In fact I feel that if I die and flip town a milo/fid/GGT team could be quite possible


Which flips pretty quick...
On June 08 2015 03:44 Chocolate wrote:
Actually after thinking about it I don't think milo is scum, you guys are right in that whatever he did at the end of the day is pretty indicative of alignment (though do recall he didn't actually change his vote)

Hopefully I have some time in the next few hours to make a vote, if not sorry


Then he takes this stand...
On June 08 2015 05:09 Chocolate wrote:
I'm voting TT

Don't wanna vote GGT because I think he's town.

GGT makes a compelling case (I know this is a shitty reason to vote someone but I had no time today) and since I think he's town I'm going TT

Really sorry for not being more productive, when I get back home I promise I'll kick the posting up a notch

Really? Choco thinks GG has the most compelling case D2? Wasn't he scumming GG?

What is Choco thinking himself though?
On June 09 2015 01:41 Chocolate wrote:
I've been reading the filters of both VE and TT from d1. I'm on a phone so it would be hell on earth for me to do a shitton of quoting so here it goes:

Both call each other town pretty early on
Both push votes on townies (though of course I am not confirmed townie)
As soon as I park a very early vote on TT, VE scum reads me
I'm pretty sure all of TTs d1 list (GG, me, milo, SL) is town and gives him flexibility to bandwagon as he pleases
Additionally, although his posts regarding me are all cautious (need to read more, you are all three probably town) he puts me second on his list

I'll read n1 and d2 soon too but again I'm on my phone so it takes me a while to structure a post adequately
Still not sure who third scum is, at this point I'm finding damdred unlikely

There he goes back on VE suddenly...

He also threw out this weak read on Shen
On June 08 2015 05:18 Chocolate wrote:
Actually I don't think Shen is mafia for this reason

If I were scum I'd never be as inactive as SL was the first day, even if I were about to get replaced
Shen being very active today tells me more that he is trying to do town more of a service than dispel the read people were getting on sl

He was also pushed moderately day1 before and after I brought it up which I don't have a good reason to feel suspicious but strikes me as fishy (though I do recognize that I was part of that crowd)


Sorry it's not much of a case... but that's all there was in his filter.

The flip in his reads looks pretty odd to me. It weakens my idea of Milo and Choco being scum partners that Choco would even suggest Milo as scum, but he takes back to read fairly fast so I'm not sure. He also flips really hard on GG while giving no reasons.

I also dislike how VE just suddenly pops back up in Choco's scum reads. I find it especially interesting because it looks like he does this AFTER he starts scumming me, then gives some weak association to backup why.

Honestly none of it looks good.

Ve has been a pretty strong scum read of mine for a while, I just haven't been able to convince anyone else for a while so it's not something I'm going to keep pushing


Then build a fucking case.
This sentence is pretty scummy.
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
Chocolate
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States2350 Posts
June 09 2015 19:14 GMT
#1591
I've done it several times and I don't have a whole lot to add, but here's some supporting evidence

[quote
People I'd probably lynch in spite of them probably being spewed town:
sicklucker

People I'm looking at filters right now to decide if I think they are the lynch today instead of Chocolate:
GGTemplar

People I'd lynch remorselessly:
Chocolate
milo[/quote]
Again, like with TT, all of these are either confirmed town, me, or milo

One thing I would like to bring to light is his case against GGT. He seems really irked by the fact that GGT was going after TT for some reason...
On June 06 2015 17:05 VisceraEyes wrote:
GGTemplar spent most of the game giving hard townreads based on very early posts, and he spent a lot of time justifying those reads. I concede that the most blatant example of this, his reads on Nydus and Ticktock shown here, was at the behest of another player. However, if you'll kindly turn your packets to page 2 of his filter, you'll see a similar behavior throughout, with no prompting. I've explained here my meta reasoning for thinking he's mafia based on behavior - I would have expected him to try and get a read on me early if he's town. He explained numerous times that he didn't find the interaction between Chocolate and myself to be alignment indicative. Yet today, he's trying to use THAT against me.

He also does small nuanced things like trying to appeal to authority and appeal to emotions. Further, his push on Ticktock reads to me as an attempt to remain consistent with his reads yesterday. It's convenient that he had a (very justified *winkwink*) either/or read on Kickstart/Ticktock, and somehow by the grace of God (but conveniently not by Templar's hand) Kickstart the jailer got lynched yesterday, and today EVEN WHILE OMGUSING ME, he maintains that Ticktock is the likeliest shot at mafia. He's not reevaluating the game at all, he's trying to remain consistent while pushing a specific agenda.

Everyone should vote for GGTemplar today. He is the most likely mafia at this point in the game, I would say even more so than Chocolate. The only thing that makes me doubt it is the fact that he wasn't voting EoD yesterday, but as far as I know he thought he was or something.


A large percentage of VE's posts contain something like "I'm vomiting town" or "I'm owning mafia" which to me seems like a subliminal way of keeping up his appearances even though his track record is abysmal

I'm actually very surprised that not many others seems to subscribe to the VE/TT mafia team hypothesis. I think it just becomes pretty apparent as you read their filters
Chocolate
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States2350 Posts
June 09 2015 19:17 GMT
#1592
Anyway if I do die today I ask that you guys pretty please vote VE or TT

I'm not willing to vote Onegu or Damdred right now at all, I really want one of my potential scum team lynched
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
June 09 2015 19:20 GMT
#1593
On June 09 2015 20:46 Fidei86 wrote:
@TT I agree with the general sentiment that you've played a good game up to this point. If you're mafia and you win, I think you will deserve it for sure. However, your last post makes me think things are starting to come apart at the seams a little bit, because a milo/chocolate team literally makes no sense to me.

The situation at the end of EOD1 was that it was 5-4 to KS. Milo, at the last moment, after the role claim, took his vote off KS leaving it 4-4. If milo was scum with Chocolate, there is literally no reason for him to come off the KS wagon. He knew that I was around on the forums, and clearly Ritoky was because he posted just after EOD. So there was a very real risk that the vote would flip to Chocolate. Why would you bus a fellow mafia on day 1 right at the last moment to protect a blue, when you could very easily just AFK through it. That makes no sense to me whatsoever. The fact that you're contorting things to this degree just to try and get some sort of wagon going on milo with Damdred is extremely suspicious to me, ESPECIALLY when we have Onegu who is a confirmed and unabashed troll as a much juicier target, if you're truly a flailing towny.

Honestly, the move also doesn't make sense even if milo is scum and Chocolate is town, because milo still would have no incentive to come off the blue for a different towny. This is a little less certain though, because I concede it is possible milo was doing some sort of next level play. But I think the strong likelihood is that he is town.


My conclusions on Milo was that he was prob Town given the EoD stuff...

Had Milo unvoted AND THEN voted Choco I would agree with you that a Choco Milo team makes no sense. I was thinking that the fact that Milo was unwilling to vote Choco suggested he was trying to protect him.

It's a bit WIFOM I agree, I was just trying to make sense of Milo's actions EoD1 especially if they were scum modivated

Also I was adding you into that team not because you support Milo, but because you've supported Choco so much in the l past without having great reasons too... Milo has also been doing this. I also have not been unsure of your alingment so you just kinda fell in there. I'll admit I'm only putting you in that team kus it kinda clicked when I thought about it, I've actually been ok with your play recently.

So @ Fidei
We might well be back in OMGUS spitting on each other here. Besides myself who are thinking is scum?

I actually liked your points about Onegu. My issues with voting him early were that he would really just be a coinflip given his play, and there seemed to be better targets each day. Now I'm not sure if he's switching up his meta from what people have suggested, or if he's just useless town. I saw him pick it up on D2, not sure why that stopped...

I can take that responsibility.
Tictock
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States6052 Posts
June 09 2015 19:22 GMT
#1594
On June 10 2015 03:53 Chocolate wrote:
I went back to look at the first day of reads

All of TT's scum reads were either quickly withdrawn (KS, ritoky, damdred) confirmed town(SL, GG, arguably milo) and me

Now, it's not conclusive evidence at all, but I think this is pretty damning. TT initially was only leveling accusations at people who were town (other than me, damdred, and arguably milo, who we are not sure about).

All of our flips so far have been town so this is true of lots of people. However, ALL BUT THREE of these 7 people are confirmed town.


Why are you stuck back in D1 man?

There has been tons of content since then... Besides D1 is not the most reliable day to look at if you think my reads have been all over the place, everyone's reads D1 change very quickly.
I can take that responsibility.
Chocolate
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States2350 Posts
June 09 2015 19:24 GMT
#1595
Well I'm mostly stuck on D1 with you because you post a lot and have long posts so it's taking me a long time to get through all of it

"So @ Fidei
We might well be back in OMGUS spitting on each other here. Besides myself who are thinking is scum?

I actually liked your points about Onegu. My issues with voting him early were that he would really just be a coinflip given his play, and there seemed to be better targets each day. Now I'm not sure if he's switching up his meta from what people have suggested, or if he's just useless town. I saw him pick it up on D2, not sure why that stopped...
"
More of TT trying to position himself to bandwagon on town, what a surprise
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
June 09 2015 19:28 GMT
#1596
I think it's a pretty enormous stretch to say he "picked it up". He posted a couple of posts that were more than a line long, mostly all in defence of his rule. His rule that was, by the way, pretty much totally discredited when Shen flipped town. None of this is to say that he is mafia. In fact, I think any half-way competent town would have lynched him on Day 1, and it would have been a worthy mislynch. I can't fault you TT, or even scott, for lurking. I think that NHM, Onegu and Chocolate have all been lurk-y, as has VE. But at least all but Onegu have actually said things or in any way meaningfully contributed to this game.

All of that comes to why I honestly believe Chocolate is town. Chocolate was getting very heavily tunnelled on Day 1, but he was still willing to throw his vote onto Onegu with me. I see voting Onegu day 1 as the most pro-town thing it was possible to do. We definitely should not have lynched KS, not only because he ended up being blue, but because he was actually reading and contributing and pushing things.

Also, Chocolate is only 18 and he hasn't played much mafia. I see his playstyle more as inexperience and a small amount of immaturity, not scumminess. He posted a couple of stupid things and, as a result, got really heavily tunnelled by VE. He also got abused by Scott (who said "you'd better start shitting townie rainbows"). I'd be pissed too. In fact, Chocolate's reaction was similar (albeit more whiny and less righteous indignation) than GGT's.

If he's mafia and he's totally hoodwinked me, I'll feel like a prize chump. But those are my reasons and I'm going to stick by them, for now at least.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
June 09 2015 19:34 GMT
#1597
@TT I will admit, I'm struggling to get out of the tunnel. Everything you and scott say screams mafia to me, and I can readily find excuses for Chocolate and milo, who I thought were town. I'm trying to shake those reads, but I think I'm better off reading other people's filters.

Let me go have a flick through VE's filter, because I think he and Damdred have played very similar games. If one of them is town and the other is mafia, that would be very surprising to me. In fact, I can't recall a time when either of them has actually read the other one. Hmmm. I'm going to go and look now.
Fidei86
Profile Joined May 2015
United Kingdom2116 Posts
June 09 2015 19:34 GMT
#1598
Edit: *I "think" milo and Chocolate are town, not "thought".
milo109
Profile Joined May 2015
466 Posts
June 09 2015 19:37 GMT
#1599
You do realize that if we lynch Chocolate and he flips town, tommorrow is hell on earth?
scott31337
Profile Joined January 2013
United States2979 Posts
June 09 2015 19:48 GMT
#1600
On June 08 2015 13:02 Tictock wrote:
I think I want to filter dive Damdred next, as I found his play shifted a lot in style today. I do agree with everything he said about GG, though maybe it was a bit odd to see him sheep VE.

Idk, given how this game has gone I'm tempted to think we either have a scum team that is mostly lurking and letting town fight amongst town + Show Spoiler +
which is why I suggested we start looking at lurkers more seriously
OR it is a team of more advanced players, possibly with one of the newer plays. Since I know our wagons D2 were both on town, I'm tempted to think lurking scum is the most likely.

I was also trying to figure out why I didn't like the tone of Fidei's posts (the WIFOM stuff and the large series of posts changing his thinking. I randomly figured it out while going through Nydus' filter. He looks a lot like one of the newbie scum in NSM X. That guy spent a lot of the early game asking basic noob questions & looking like he didn't know what he was doing and then spent lots of posts "lost in thought" discussing things others told him were best left along (role hunting/suggesting).

@ Scott
Is it just me of does Fidei's play look pretty similar to BF's last game? Not sure it makes him scum, I just found the similarity unsettling once I noticed it.


I knew I kind of blew this off, but Do you still think this is the case? When I reading the game I was biased, so.

Is Fidei doing a Tunneltock this game on you?
THIS WAGON IS HITTING MAFIA FOR SURE BOYS!
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