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Well I see VE beat me to the punch on making a case on GG... I knew I liked VE for a reason. Even in the off chance that GG is town here his approach here is so off that he is literally just being a detriment to town by the way he is so focused and sure of himself. I've been trying to interact with the guy since his first posts about me, but he just ignored w/e I say and pushes me for "breaking the Chez rule" Maybe the Chez rule is great, maybe it is highly proven, but Chez is not here so I'm not convinced his rule applies. GG just wants to abuse that "rule" to his own advantage here and literally can't see past me this game which... I get in a way, I've been tunneled so bad that I miss the obvious, but it is clearly a detriment to the game.
I was working on my own case for as to why GG is the best lynch today, but given VE's gone and done the same thing I'll just go ahead and post what I had thus far, even though I hadn't filled out all my thoughts with quotes and such.
I honestly find GG to be the best lynch today. I know my opinion is biased here, I don't care to be mislynched to prove GG is wrong here (If that's what it takes to solve this game, then go for it I wont blame you), so keep that bias in mind.
GG has basically shown that he is simply not sure that he isn't sure about anyone but me, yet is willing to claim he's 99% sure about this game.
He throws out my name in every post as though chanting my name. This is subtle manipulation on his part, it's the same tactic used in commercials to get you to remember something and keep thinking about it.
He throws around spots in his reads like he's offering safe passage to those he "reads town"
He throws out his Townreads on Kick and Ritoky like they were candy that everyone should enjoy, and then remember who gave them out so they will accept more later. This is such an easy move for scum to make since they actually know who is town. GG barely recognized that Kick had died or was our ONLY blue role.
I'm pretty ok lynching Choco as well atm (more activity from him may change my mind here), but I think GG will just continue to be a detriment like this until either He or I flip.
Part of me wants to look at the possible scumteam here, as it makes so much sense if GG, Choco, and Dam were mafia here. However I'm not convinced Damdred is in fact scum given his reactions to my case and most of my association between GG and Choco comes from what ritoky suggested EoD1, which may or may not be accurate.
In fact right now I'm pretty sure that these people are town.
VE
scott
milo
Leaning Town
Damdred
Onegu
Null/unsure
Nydus
Fidei
Shendelzare (I honestly need to see more or interact more before I can make a read)
Scum - Should be Lynched
GG
Choco
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I just really have a hard time seeing Town thinking in this post from GG...
On June 06 2015 14:08 GGTeMpLaR wrote:
If you are so sure Chocolate is mafia you should be pushing on him and trying to build cases against him, not attacking me for not going on him with you.
VE you have been demoted to the lower-null section for said reason. Scott/Onegu there's an opening in upper-null if you want to project town.
That is not how you hunt for scum...
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I did swap my vote to GG, just didn't post it here. I prob woulda done it last night, but seemed better to do it when I made my case, and I wanted to give GG one more chance to respond to anything I've said... He failed to do so...
I was kinda hoping to hear from Choco by now though. I don't want to read too much into it, but I can't help but get the feeling he's trying to hold back and stay out of people's way so that he's not lynched today.
@Shendelzare
Since your a bit late to the part and have spent most of your time this far catching up, can you please post some form of reads list or at least where you generally are leaning on everyone atm? I'm not sure I know where you stand right now.
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Day 2 Vote Count
Shendelzare(0): Onegu
Chocolate(0): Tictock
Onegu(2): Scott, Damdred
Tictock(1): GGTemplar, GGTemplar
GGTemplar(3): VisceraEyes, Onegu, Tictock
VisceraEyes(0): GGTemplar
Not Voting (5): Shendelzare, Chocolate, milo109, NydusHerMain, Fidei86
Currently, GGTemplar is set to be executed. Day 2 ends in at 21:00 GMT (+00:00).
The voting thread is located here.
Posting after the deadline and before the flip will result in a modkill.
UNJUSTIFIED FAILURE TO VOTE WILL RESULT IN A MODKILL
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I mentioned before, but I'll say it again. I have to close then open at work tonight/tomorrow. So if I'm around at all later it wont be for very long so don't expect anymore huge posts from me this phase.
If anyone wants to chat with me, poke my reads/case, or w/e you've got about 3~hrs to do it.
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On my phone but since you asked Tic
Town - VE (posting), milo (EoD)
Lean town - Damdred
Not sure - Scott, Fidei
Scum lean - Tic, Chocolate (posting but could move after further review), NHM (need to see more)
Scum - Templar
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There are only 3 scum so I know at least one scum read is wrong.
Also I'm putting Onegu in his own category - "high in the sky"
Basically he's using some arbitrary rule to justify his reads. He's scumming Templar so maybe he's not scum if Templar flips but looking at some games his game play isn't that great as either alignment.
Less for town for sure.
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Ok well if nobody is around to interact with I'll go ahead and finish up that case then.
#1 - GG has basically shown that he is simply not sure that he isn't sure about anyone but me, yet is willing to claim he's 99% sure about this game.
He makes this assertion here.
D1 he was sure that it was either myself or Kick that were Mafia. He hardly pushed Kick instead, flipped his read rather suddenly and kept focus on me. This was shortly before Kick becomes the EoD wagon and eventually gets lynched. To GG this now has me as "confirmed" scum.
This thinking is dangerous as town, and seems to clearly be scum motivated to me. As scum, this makes perfect sense as it suggests to town that they have a 50/50 chance one day with a confirmed scum lynch the next day. If scum can set this situation up and have it gain credence then it's a great way to get 2 ML's for one stubborn argument. Even if the end result is Scum!GG being lynched on the 3rd day this would be hugely productive for scum.
As town it is highly questionable to make this case, as since you cannot have perfect information (and losing out Blue role means Town can't glean any extra info this game) and thus if you are wrong you are sentencing 2 town to be killed. Thus if you want to suggest a move like this as town you had better have solid evidence to backup this plan. I fail to see that evidence coming from GG.
#2 - He throws out my name in every post as though chanting my name. This is subtle manipulation on his part, it's the same tactic used in commercials to get you to remember something and keep thinking about it.
I'm not even sure I need to bother proving this one, it is clearly the tactic GG is using here. Instead I'll return to why GG is scumreading me, the Chez rule.
I would like to point out that GG is clearly basing his assertion that I am scum off the Chez Rule, yet he does next to nothing to backup his belief in the Chez rule. It was scott who first tried to explain it, then ritoky posted links, and Onegu posted another one. GG would rather paraphrase the rule in order to get it to fit this situation and stick to it, then give any real evidence about the Chez Rule.
Having now done my own reading and looking into it I can see why GG isn't giving out those links. His play is not very in line with how Chez would play out his rule. In the Champions Game Onegu linked to, you can clearly see that Chez is willing to think outside his own rule, and while he comes back to it time and again he never lets the rule fully cloud his judgment. I also have a hard time believing Chez would allow his vote to be wasted like GG let his "vote" on me go to waste D1.
#3 - He throws around spots in his reads like he's offering safe passage to those he "reads town"
I quoted the post he made where he stated this a couple of posts ago. Again, I think this point speaks for itself.
I'm really interested if anyone has anyway to explain how this thinking could possibly be good or helpful.
#4 - He throws out his Townreads on Kick and Ritoky like they were candy that everyone should enjoy, and then remember who gave them out so they will accept more later.
The post where he does this is here, but here is the portion I found most interesting.
Multiple people, including this now confirmed town and another strong town read of mine (ritoky) have now posted speaking very positively of my recent posting yet Tictock continues to insist that it 'doesn't make sense'. I readily assume that if this many people are capable of reacting positively to it while TT continues to insist a tentative read in regards to my push on him, wanting to push back on me, but having too many people speak positively of my posting, that it would be natural for a mafia to be inclined to feign 'confusion' rather than continue to 'tunnel back against me' or 'flop on me and read me as town'.
Also, I would like to point out that in the end, my conclusion to townread Kickstarter was correct. I say this to promote the integrity of my reads so I can get other villagers to follow me when I say 'vote ticktock' and 'I will add kickstarter to my town list' so that you people stop lynching my townreads and I'm not the only one voting my scumread at EOD.
This is such an easy move for scum to make since they actually know who is town. GG is quick to throw out that he was townreading Kick, yet he barely recognized that Kick had died or was our ONLY blue role. He spins his read on ritoky the same way, just saying "I knew he was town, listen to me"
Saying you were right about Townreads is the worst way to prove you are town as it is the easiest way for Mafia to show that they are town as well. If anything people should be more afraid to listen to GG given this statement.
#3 & 4 together pretty much prove to me that GG does not have Town interests in mind. I also find there to be ample explanation as to why Scum!GG would be acting this way and pushing me like this. Maybe it's a little WIFOM, but I don't think scum is sweating losing a member of their team right now if it has the potential of getting another ML and creates further confusion and misdirection at the same time.
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On June 06 2015 19:44 Onegu wrote:
Damdred falls under the Onegu rule also. He goes from I cant read onegu well IDK need more time. To onegu looks really bad, he best lynch for no reason.
GG
S-word
Damdred
Scumteam^
I knew my brotha would come thru -
##Unvote
On June 06 2015 20:47 GGTeMpLaR wrote:
Also Damdred continues to look better than Onegu at this rate.
Did your team get called out?
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If Onegu dies d3 follow his path to victory
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i'll read the thread at some point. Obviously I gave a reason why I think oneg looks bad and why I voted him *shrug*
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On June 07 2015 02:21 Shendelzare wrote:
On my phone but since you asked Tic
Town - VE (posting), milo (EoD)
Lean town - Damdred
Not sure - Scott, Fidei
Scum lean - Tic, Chocolate (posting but could move after further review), NHM (need to see more)
Scum - Templar
Thanks.
Besides myself being a scum lean I'm pretty much on the same page as you ^.^
I also feel Nydus is lurking far too much. Maybe I should spend the rest of my time today diggin through his filter. I need to reread his Reads post as well and see if there is decent thinking in that or not.
Where are you on Onegu? I know he is a tough one to read but I see him missing in your post there...
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Woops, sorry Shen, missed your followup where you talked about Onegu, disregard my question about him.
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Damdred sheeps VE cause reasons
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Anyway i'm mostly caught up.
Firstly I don't think the oneg/Chezinu rule applies to me here. Firstly I wasn't the first person to put scum on oneg or to vote oneg I believe. (the chez rule is a fine rule XD) Secondly I have/had a decent reason to vote on oneg at that moment in time. He had a scum read on me, then pushed someone else next phase without a mention of me.
VE is obvious town here, his case on GG isn't horrible its decent to sheep. I'm still not sure that it makes GG mafia personally I think that Nyus is more mafia than GG at this point. But VE seems so sure i'm just willing to trust him here.
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On June 07 2015 03:01 Damdred wrote:
Anyway i'm mostly caught up.
Firstly I don't think the oneg/Chezinu rule applies to me here. Firstly I wasn't the first person to put scum on oneg or to vote oneg I believe. (the chez rule is a fine rule XD) Secondly I have/had a decent reason to vote on oneg at that moment in time. He had a scum read on me, then pushed someone else next phase without a mention of me.
VE is obvious town here, his case on GG isn't horrible its decent to sheep. I'm still not sure that it makes GG mafia personally I think that Nyus is more mafia than GG at this point. But VE seems so sure i'm just willing to trust him here.
Good luck Dam, I've been trying to argue that point in regards to GG and myself... These easy strats are too strong! Maybe if Chez were here himself we wouldn't have a leg to stand on, but since he is not I don't believe we can follow his rule.
I'm also a little hurt you overlooked my own case. Do you not care about what I think if it's not in regards to you?
I get it, you still think I could be scum here. Just don't leave those blinders on too long. Tunnels are bad, Don't stay in Tunnels, mmm'k?
@ Onegu
Trolls live under bridges, bridges are really just tunnels over the water, thus trolls live near tunnels and tunnels are bad.
+ Show Spoiler +Please include the occasional post with some logic/reasoning. I think I get your style, but, assuming your town, don't make yourself an easy mislynch.
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I'm pretty sure Tic is town after that case. VE is as well.
So if I can get NHM to crap some more town love (or Shen)- That leaves (in order)
GGTemplar
Fidei86
Damdred
Shendelzare
Chocolate
And we can GG it out.
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On June 07 2015 03:36 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2015 03:01 Damdred wrote:
Anyway i'm mostly caught up.
Firstly I don't think the oneg/Chezinu rule applies to me here. Firstly I wasn't the first person to put scum on oneg or to vote oneg I believe. (the chez rule is a fine rule XD) Secondly I have/had a decent reason to vote on oneg at that moment in time. He had a scum read on me, then pushed someone else next phase without a mention of me.
VE is obvious town here, his case on GG isn't horrible its decent to sheep. I'm still not sure that it makes GG mafia personally I think that Nyus is more mafia than GG at this point. But VE seems so sure i'm just willing to trust him here. Good luck Dam, I've been trying to argue that point in regards to GG and myself... These easy strats are too strong! Maybe if Chez were here himself we wouldn't have a leg to stand on, but since he is not I don't believe we can follow his rule. I'm also a little hurt you overlooked my own case. Do you not care about what I think if it's not in regards to you? I get it, you still think I could be scum here. Just don't leave those blinders on too long. Tunnels are bad, Don't stay in Tunnels, mmm'k? @ Onegu Trolls live under bridges, bridges are really just tunnels over the water, thus trolls live near tunnels and tunnels are bad. + Show Spoiler +Please include the occasional post with some logic/reasoning. I think I get your style, but, assuming your town, don't make yourself an easy mislynch.
I'm not so sure you are scum I don't know.
But yea normally the chez rule applies to chez....
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Hey guys
Sorry for having been quiet over the last day or so - I went out with work last night and drank waaay too much, then I've had friends round today and have just caught up with the thread.
I want to talk a little bit about the ritoky night-kill. Someone said earlier that it's mostly circular (WIFOM?) to try and think too much about it. That makes sense to me, because if you say "so and so would have wanted to kill Ritoky because he was on to them", the obvious counter-argument is "well maybe the mafia are trying to set up so and so". On top of that, Ritoky was a relatively easy target because most people had him town-read (or, at least, he had barely taken any criticism apart from very early on regarding his posting style) and he was also really driving discussion in a pro-town way.
However, I'm now going to totally crap on everything I just said above, and say that I think that the two people that Ritoky's night kill reflect badly on are scott and Ticktock.
Ticktock
Early on in day 1, ritoky was all over Ticktock. In particular, look at this. Ritoky was concerned that something was off with the post. (Honestly, I'm not sure I follow what Ritoky was on about, but that's not really the point.) He then later says this, where he says "I think me and this guy are reading separate games". However, he quietened down a bit on Ticktock as we came up to EOD 1, especially as everything turned on the Chocolate/Kickstarter debacle. After the vote, ritoky then said: TT also seemed overly upset/miffed by the vote for how little he did to try and stop it/get his target lynched. Seems like a bit of a disproportionate response. I guess a lot of people already said that but gonna echo it. TT ended up as the most yellow on ritoky's final list, which I assume means most scum.
Scott
Ritoky had less to say about scott, probably because scott just hasn't been as active as Ticktock (or, at least, it seems that way). Still, right at the end, in his table, ritoky wrote next to scott's name "very different from previous game".
I've also had a scum read on scott for a while. Reading through his filter, I just don't think he has every contributed much of value. He posts lots of lists, but they generally only refer to vague feelings, rather than anything more substantive. He also has a serious tendency to respond to questions or comments with a "what do you think?" or "what's your list", which I think looks like a tactic to avoid answering questions.
One thing in particular that I didn't like was where, when the Chocolate/Kickstarter thing was getting started, he had his vote on Chocolate. He then posted in the midst of it all here that "I'm starting to think both wagons are town". However, he didn't move his vote off Chocolate. That's a big tell to me. If he had honestly believed that, and was town himself, the logical thing would have been to try and look for a different candidate. In fact, both Chocolate and I were pushing an Onegu policy vote around that time, which would have succeeded if he had come on board and helped us to get one or two more supporters.
Why a ritoky NK makes sense
Ticktock is being tunnelled pretty hard by GGTemplar, but he doesn't seem to be on many other lists (I think he drew some fire from Chocolate earlier, but that seems to have died down a little). Scott doesn't seem to be on anyone's list at all - in fact I don't think anyone has really said much of anything substantive about him. Ritoky wasn't pushing either of them to get lynched, but he clearly had suspicions. To me it makes perfect sense for them to lynch him - it wouldn't draw too much fire because ritoky wasn't tunnelling either of them, but he definitely had a sense about both of them that nobody else had, and scott/TT silencing that voice totally makes sense to me.
The other thing to bear in mind, for me anyway, is that Ritoky seemed like he was a really strong player, and since he is confirmed town, we know his views were genuine. It looks to me like these guys were his top targets.
OMGUS
(My understanding of this is that it's where people counter-accuse mafia).
I recognise that scott and Ticktock are the two people who have really said negative things about me. They haven't ever said "oh, he's scum", but they've both just criticised my posts without giving good reasons, and I seem to have made it to the "null" section of their lists. As this is my first game of forum mafia, I accept that all of the above could just be confirmation bias. I'm raising this just so you guys can bear it in mind when you read the above.
What does everyone think?
TL;DR: ritoky was suspicious of scott and TT, so it makes sense for them to NK him
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On June 07 2015 04:56 Fidei86 wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Hey guys Sorry for having been quiet over the last day or so - I went out with work last night and drank waaay too much, then I've had friends round today and have just caught up with the thread. I want to talk a little bit about the ritoky night-kill. Someone said earlier that it's mostly circular (WIFOM?) to try and think too much about it. That makes sense to me, because if you say "so and so would have wanted to kill Ritoky because he was on to them", the obvious counter-argument is "well maybe the mafia are trying to set up so and so". On top of that, Ritoky was a relatively easy target because most people had him town-read (or, at least, he had barely taken any criticism apart from very early on regarding his posting style) and he was also really driving discussion in a pro-town way. However, I'm now going to totally crap on everything I just said above, and say that I think that the two people that Ritoky's night kill reflect badly on are scott and Ticktock. TicktockEarly on in day 1, ritoky was all over Ticktock. In particular, look at this. Ritoky was concerned that something was off with the post. (Honestly, I'm not sure I follow what Ritoky was on about, but that's not really the point.) He then later says this, where he says "I think me and this guy are reading separate games". However, he quietened down a bit on Ticktock as we came up to EOD 1, especially as everything turned on the Chocolate/Kickstarter debacle. After the vote, ritoky then said: TT also seemed overly upset/miffed by the vote for how little he did to try and stop it/get his target lynched. Seems like a bit of a disproportionate response. I guess a lot of people already said that but gonna echo it. TT ended up as the most yellow on ritoky's final list, which I assume means most scum. Ritoky had less to say about scott, probably because scott just hasn't been as active as Ticktock (or, at least, it seems that way). Still, right at the end, in his table, ritoky wrote next to scott's name "very different from previous game". I've also had a scum read on scott for a while. Reading through his filter, I just don't think he has every contributed much of value. He posts lots of lists, but they generally only refer to vague feelings, rather than anything more substantive. He also has a serious tendency to respond to questions or comments with a "what do you think?" or "what's your list", which I think looks like a tactic to avoid answering questions. One thing in particular that I didn't like was where, when the Chocolate/Kickstarter thing was getting started, he had his vote on Chocolate. He then posted in the midst of it all here that "I'm starting to think both wagons are town". However, he didn't move his vote off Chocolate. That's a big tell to me. If he had honestly believed that, and was town himself, the logical thing would have been to try and look for a different candidate. In fact, both Chocolate and I were pushing an Onegu policy vote around that time, which would have succeeded if he had come on board and helped us to get one or two more supporters. + Show Spoiler +
Why a ritoky NK makes sense
Ticktock is being tunnelled pretty hard by GGTemplar, but he doesn't seem to be on many other lists (I think he drew some fire from Chocolate earlier, but that seems to have died down a little). Scott doesn't seem to be on anyone's list at all - in fact I don't think anyone has really said much of anything substantive about him. Ritoky wasn't pushing either of them to get lynched, but he clearly had suspicions. To me it makes perfect sense for them to lynch him - it wouldn't draw too much fire because ritoky wasn't tunnelling either of them, but he definitely had a sense about both of them that nobody else had, and scott/TT silencing that voice totally makes sense to me.
The other thing to bear in mind, for me anyway, is that Ritoky seemed like he was a really strong player, and since he is confirmed town, we know his views were genuine. It looks to me like these guys were his top targets.
OMGUS
(My understanding of this is that it's where people counter-accuse mafia).
I recognise that scott and Ticktock are the two people who have really said negative things about me. They haven't ever said "oh, he's scum", but they've both just criticised my posts without giving good reasons, and I seem to have made it to the "null" section of their lists. As this is my first game of forum mafia, I accept that all of the above could just be confirmation bias. I'm raising this just so you guys can bear it in mind when you read the above.
What does everyone think?
What questions do you have for me? I also posted that I thought both wagons are town because the voting started to feel that way - call it a spidey sense. You are right, I didn't vote for KS because I was more confident on him - and look, I was right. What kind of wagon do you want me to try to start in 20 minutes and at least three people weren't in the thread? I wouldn't have supported an Onegu lynch either, I already gave my meta town read on him that I was confident of for Day 1. I said that because when both wagons are town, mafia could care. The votes were going that way. It's also when I saw very little resistance to GG I started to worry as well - Ritoky made sense here. You follow what I'm saying?
Did you even read my previous game to know what Ritoky was talking about?
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EPT
