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I'm gonna try to use a heuristic I remember from a discussion I had with OnceKing a couple of times. Let's see how this goes.
Later in the game, after several players have flipped, you can discern something about the identity of the opposing team by the activity pattern of the players lynched. A few observations in my experience tend to hold true:
(1) If a mafia player is lynched early in the game or without much resistance, this tends to imply that the opposing team is relatively weak or lacking in thread presence. The logic at play here is that early lynches are very easy to deflect off of teammates and onto townies, and that mafia teams with stronger thread presence are capable of protecting their weaker links, while mafia teams with weaker thread presence aren't, and resort to busing or otherwise allowing their own to die.
(2) The mafia tends to have a thread presence opposite that of the general thread presence of the townies that have been mislynched. In other words, if most of the townies that have been mislynched were relatively active and involved players, the mafia tends to be relatively inactive, and if most of the townies that have been mislynched were relatively inactive and uninvolved players, the mafia tends to be relatively active. This is where the two classic situations of a "town tearing itself apart" and a "mafia shepherding a town" come from: in the first one, active townies naturally gravitate toward killing one another, because hitting inactives is generally dissatisfying and active townies will tend to say some suspicious things as a byproduct of posting a lot, and in the second one, active mafia are capable of pushing through otherwise-questionable lynches on townies due to sheer force of willpower and thread presence.
Now, granted, we've only had two actual lynches, but two other factors nonetheless permit me to make this analysis:
(1) Early in N1, two townies who were popular wagons during D1 were modkilled, sufficient to create a de facto triple lynch.
(2) The vigilante's shots have been unusually publicly discussed, making them effectively extensions of normal lynches.
As a result, we can look at five different kills instead of just two, which is sufficient for this kind of analysis. The players killed in this fashion were:
- Onegu (VT)
- Damdred (VT)
- sicklucker (VT)
- Koshi (Goon)
- Holyflare (VT)
Of these five, three of the four townies (Damdred, sicklucker, Holyflare) were pretty active in the thread. They posted frequently and put forth efforts to solve the game ranging from respectable to commendable. Onegu is the one outlier, the victim of a late choke at EOD from yours truly.
Koshi, on the other hand, was very inactive, didn't try very hard to solve the game and was very noticeably absent the entire way. Other players have been relatively inactive; Breshke was relatively inactive until he claimed vig, batsnacks has been relatively inactive the entire way, LS has chimed in sometimes but tends to afk for extended periods. Yet Koshi, who was mafia, ended up being lynched for this with relatively little resistance.
These observations lead me to conclude that we are not dealing with a very active scumteam. If we were, Koshi would not have been so easily caught, and we wouldn't be lynching as many active townies as we are.
This provides more evidence for LS as mafia, enough to where I'm back to wanting to shoot him. I still feel like either of marv or JAT could just have the unfortunate luck to be stuck carrying on their own here, but I do think this analysis helps to make them look town. The issue is that it implicates batsnacks, which is really tricky.
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On February 09 2015 19:23 marvellosity wrote:
like there's no way bats/LS are mafia together because it makes bats' play on d2 totally redundant
What was bats' play and what does a bats/LS team make redundant?
(and yes I know what you're referencing, I'm just not following your thoughts)
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
i don't see why bats would ever fakeclaim in that spot if LS is his partner. what's the point?
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
your heuristics are bad, a team with me+HF in it lost a scumbuddy d1, a team with me+VE in it lost a scumbuddy d1, etc etc
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
Koshi was caught because he played badly and in the end active townies decided he was mafia.
and obviously there was no resistance to that "lynch"
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On February 09 2015 19:28 marvellosity wrote:
i don't see why bats would ever fakeclaim in that spot if LS is his partner. what's the point?
I agree so from your PoV JAT is like confirmed mafia
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not confirmed but you know what i mean he is mafia in every world because you read RSo town
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
it certainly looks like it
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
it's all on your shoulders Bresh :p
I have a chess match this evening so I'm not going to be around to argue at the opportune moment
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Yeah but
On February 09 2015 07:26 marvellosity wrote:you are a terrible player.
Don't expect a miracle i could end up shooting eden somehow
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
and ignore me, i'm grumpy when i want something and people arent doing what i say
let's just forget for the moment i was totally wrong
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Even if that heuristic were right the majority of the time (which it might be, I don't know), I don't think a vig shot can be compared to a lynch? In the end that's one player's decision.
meh, it's too early in the morning
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Or modkills, for that matter.
Straight up strategically it makes more sense to kill the player who probably won't be able to talk himself out of a mislynch if he's town, if we're going to be honest here, because if the shot tonight is town it's MYLO. So I say do that or do your strongest scumread.
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United Kingdom36161 Posts
On February 09 2015 22:06 rsoultin wrote:
Or modkills, for that matter.
Straight up strategically it makes more sense to kill the player who probably won't be able to talk himself out of a mislynch if he's town, if we're going to be honest here, because if the shot tonight is town it's MYLO. So I say do that or do your strongest scumread.
on the flip side, you could argue to shoot the player who is most likely to talk himself out of a correct lynch
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On February 09 2015 22:15 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On February 09 2015 22:06 rsoultin wrote:
Or modkills, for that matter.
Straight up strategically it makes more sense to kill the player who probably won't be able to talk himself out of a mislynch if he's town, if we're going to be honest here, because if the shot tonight is town it's MYLO. So I say do that or do your strongest scumread. on the flip side, you could argue to shoot the player who is most likely to talk himself out of a correct lynch
lol, fair enough
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On February 09 2015 20:12 marvellosity wrote:
it certainly looks like it
man what is this?
ugh
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shoot marv final answer
instincts OP, this sequence is hella wrong
On February 09 2015 18:47 marvellosity wrote:
jat is fingering rsoultin as mafia when rsoultin just looks very, very townie.
On February 09 2015 18:48 marvellosity wrote:
tbh I think we shoot LS and if he flips framer or non-GF then we're a go.
gotta take that shot though
On February 09 2015 18:55 marvellosity wrote:
although personally i would go full yolo and shoot jat
On February 09 2015 19:55 Breshke wrote:Show nested quote +On February 09 2015 19:28 marvellosity wrote:
i don't see why bats would ever fakeclaim in that spot if LS is his partner. what's the point? I agree so from your PoV JAT is like confirmed mafia
On February 09 2015 20:12 marvellosity wrote:
it certainly looks like it
marv already had all the reasons needed to scumread JAT but called shooting him "a yolo play" and suggests killing LS instead
when Breshke points out that JAT is confirmed mafia with the info marv already cited, marv says "it certainly looks like [JAT is confirmed mafia]" and then doesn't revise his shot call
...which means his shot call is the same as the person he has as confirmed mafia!
these guys are the scumteam shoot marv lynch JAT we win
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EPT
