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On March 04 2015 07:20 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2015 07:16 Half the Sky wrote:More filter diving. Anyone have thoughts on Sepulchre? On March 04 2015 06:16 Sepulchre wrote: I think Raynpelikoneet is the best shot in the long run. Unfortunately I won't be around during the troubled times of the soft deadline but that is who I would likely go with right now, albeit without having read too deeply into the thread.
For the record, I'm not in favor of shooting Your Mom, while shooting Koshi is acceptable in my book, but I'm not crazy about it either. That post was about 20 hours after his first relatively detailed post, and assuming this is a smurf (if it's not, someone correct me please), this person could be trying to cruise on that first post. I don't like this second post, even Sep skimming the thread, I'm surprised Rayn's filter isn't either changing his mind or allowing him (her) to elaborate on how he goes from this: Other than that, I would also consider shooting raynpelikoneet purely because all his posts at time of writing are objectively terrible, have nothing to do with this game or are poor attempts at jokes. Occasionally a combination of any of the above, probably. I'm not yet acclimated enough to really tell which posts in this game are jokes, sadly. ....to "Rayn is the best shot" even if it's not with full confidence. At face value, it looks scummy to me. This also reads like someone who is trying to keep options open as well. Apart from rayn being a horrific shot....what else makes him scum?
I'm not calling his conclusion scummy, I'm calling the method in which (s)he got there such. Also in his first detailed post, he doesn't even mention Koshi.
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On March 04 2015 07:21 LightningStrike wrote: Did I conplained about hard it is to keep track on how many people are in the game? Ya I forgot about him but since you brought him up he not posted much but need more posts from him null for me. Also anyone else noticed Onegu only posted once in this game since the game started?
He doesn't have to give reads on everyone. In a large game, that's obvious, esp not at one time. I was just focusing on what he DID have, and where it was throwing me off. Also the fact he had two posts, if he's a vet smurfing, it seems to me like he's trying to cruise. But I don't know that latter part.
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On March 04 2015 08:25 Alakaslam wrote: Wait.
I have been gone a really long time, how did we decide on this shot?
Did rayn act on behalf of the consensus?
Well a few were looking to shoot Koshi, then he got modkilled. Robik and Rayn were 100% shooting.
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And looks like a number of us were wrong on YM as well.
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For those of us that are qualified to meta-read (or have had some experience with Breshke), to me, the key D1 indicator/tell is whether he scumreads anyone in D1. I did a meta-read of him in Titanic - he is generally speaking, a low-volume poster - but in Titanic (he was scum RB), though he replaced out late D1, he was defending a lot of people and didn't have any hard scumreads. Unfortunately it was in advance of the EoD time so I couldn't conclude in that game before his replacement in that game muddled things up, but when he left, he was looking bad to me.
In NYE Party, where he was vig shot, I don't think he had a single scum read until right at EoD. If he pushes anyone in his scum game, that push comes extremely late, if at all in the day.
He was scumreading Mocsta and someone else midday. As town, I don't recall him being very aggressive pusher (this is aimed at Sicklucker who doesn't like him not pushing). I had filter dived him and seeing a few of the scumreads mid-day I wasn't inclined to scumread him.
Catching up on the thread...
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On March 04 2015 23:26 raynpelikoneet wrote: There is a post where it becomes clear LightningStrike is town. Who are the people accusing him? Anyone who is town should know LightningStrike is town.
Robik and Damdred seem to be the two detractors. I pressed both of them on this and I know Damdred doesn't like how tentative LS was on his read on Rasputin and myself, but I feel that LS's paranoia on both of us (based on meta, the games where he misread both of us) is justified.
Robik, I was even less clear on his explanation - I cannot remember offhand exactly, but I know he did explain it.
Now Robik was town in Titanic...how did he take LS (also town) in that game? If there's a stark contrast, it gives more likelihood that Robik is scum. Going to check.
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Rayn,
Here's Robik's explanation for the LS scumread when I pressed on it late D1: If I recall right, this read appeared to be out of nowhere, where he was laying back and not playing most of D1 or throwing random names of people to shoot.
On March 04 2015 06:52 IAmRobik wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2015 06:50 Half the Sky wrote: Back and catching up.
Robik and Damdred, can either of you explain the reasons for your LS read? Those of us here familiar with his gameplay are a bit confused. Robik why shoot him above all? Or has that since changed? he's pretending to play. he's not playing
Robik's approach to LightningStrike in Titanic, was town approach, he was clearly tunnelled on LS and pushing LS a decent chunk of the game on posts that LS made. He did this on a perceived scumslip and LS bunched in with others he legitimately thought was scum.
In this read this game, he's simply saying that LS 'isn't playing' and that was close to EoD. The only mention of LS prior is calling him a "fucking twit". His approach doesn't seem well supported or has the direction compared to his approach last game. It looks scummier for sure compared to the approach in Titanic.
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Anyone else (Rasputin, Damdred, etc) who was in Titanic, feel free to weigh in on Robik's approach to LS. Thoughts?
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On March 05 2015 00:04 Mocsta wrote: I don't agree with that conclusion. Aside from the shitty list post, I don't have any issues with LS
What do you make of Sepulchre and OWS early game interactions? Both are on my naughty list; and both have digs @ each other that disappear in the wind.
Given the bolded, not sure if you misunderstood me. I think LS is town, but I'm scumreading Robik for his approach to LS...unless you disagree with my read on Robik.
Sepulchre first post looked detailed enough and I could follow the logic from her reasoning, even if it was wrong. For example, I don't agree with Sep's conclusion on OWS, since OWS didn't seem to be putting down the play of people pressuring my read. He wasn't disassociating himself. She did put it in context though - a first impressions thing.
I wasn't sure if it was a smurf at the time I evaluated her second post close to EoD last night. I was inclined to scumread her based on the way she followed up on her second post from her first, and that the reads were getting shallower and wasn't a strong read even from a skim of the thread. My problem was her followup, not her initial post and the fact she did jack all for 20-odd hours.
I believe in her followup last night she said she was not a smurf, a legit new player. I looked at her post-D1 (IIRC) followup. Her first post appeared well thought out and honest, but I had a problem with her second post more than I did with her first.
I'm going to take a closer look at her final post and see if anything more conclusive is out of that.
OWS's reaction did not strike me as unusual, it appeared to be a logical reaction after 2-3 people asked me to give a read. Also his sequence of gut reads does not appear unusual to me.
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I'm going to need more time to fully evaluate OWS. I've had two games with him, one of which I replaced out, and I misread him badly in the second game where I outlasted him (which was a large normal, although both of us were blues, so I'm not sure if he was playing different because he was blue).
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In that game (Carol), OWS did jack all. If I had to take him at face value now, he'd be a good lynch, hasn't done too much beyond tone reads early D1. Definitely forgettable, and doesn't really talk/followup on Bats even post-lynch.
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Dodging out for a conference call, but will be back.
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Kita,
1 He was blue in Carol so he may have purposely acted different. I'm also unfamiliar with his normal town meta, I havent played with him enough to know if he's normally lazy-ish town. 2 Disregarding his meta (hence saying face value), I'd lynch him because his filter is forgettable.
Am I making sense now?
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Basically if you know him better Kita, is his town meta normally on the lazy side (think VayneAuthority, etc)?
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On March 05 2015 00:49 kitaman27 wrote:And to be fair, if I'm looking at your list, you better let me know how you feel about Keirathi, Epiphany, Damdred, Fecal, Tube
When I get back, I'll try looking into these and seeing if anything changed.
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On March 05 2015 02:15 LightningStrike wrote: Can you explain your reads please? Because it seems like you got no reasons shown on your reads and would like to know how you got to each read.
Join the club. We've said this how many times?
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On March 05 2015 02:06 ObiWanShinobi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2015 00:39 Half the Sky wrote: In that game (Carol), OWS did jack all. If I had to take him at face value now, he'd be a good lynch, hasn't done too much beyond tone reads early D1. Definitely forgettable, and doesn't really talk/followup on Bats even post-lynch. What exactly are you expecting, though? Batsnacks has done absolutely nothing of value all game and is playing like a total ghost. I can't follow up on someone that isn't playing. =/
You said around EoD to shoot Batsnacks. I'm not disputing your read on him, just trying to understand your specific reasoning.
Also I commented on your filter, and there are multiple scum in this game, so do you have any other solid scumreads based on everything that's happened so far? I see your gut reads at the beginning of the game, but do you have any input on any of the main issues in the thread and whether that's affected your gut reads?
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On March 05 2015 02:31 ObiWanShinobi wrote: He's playing like a total ghost which is basically exactly how he plays scum.
Cheers. This is the type of answer I was looking for.
What main issues would you have me look at, exactly?
Well off the cuff, here's what's jumping out at me:
- Kurumi's semi-trolling and reads in general - Robik's pushes on LS - Tubesock's gameplay (which has been getting split opinion) - Any read on Sepulchre, who is a new player, and any opinion on her followup
...or anything else you might find important.
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On March 05 2015 02:35 raynpelikoneet wrote: Now, any smart people, why?
He does this in every single game he plays as town.
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