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On February 23 2015 14:54 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2015 05:06 zlefin wrote:
I believe that's a good analysis, and would like to hear Silver's rebuttal. Also, if you think it's silver, any idea on who they're working with?
I'm starting to try to think on pairwise analysis to see who looks too in sync. This quote looks really weird with a flipped Silverarte..... Show nested quote +On February 20 2015 06:11 zlefin wrote:
Like I say, I could see a Trfel/Silver team as a possibility, as I looked over how things were done.
I maintain silver is a great target right now.
I'm suspicious of Tere as well, more suspicious than I am of trfel. Look at these sentences (all from the same quote, stand alone, I just removed the stuff in between. If Silverarte flips, he is setting himself up for pushing Trfel, taking credit for voting scum. And if Trfel flips town, he's setting himself up to push Tere in response. This post looks badJust a few random thoughts from zlefin's filter. I really think that the scum is zlefin, not jarjarbinks. Jarjarbinks has seemed more like town. There is a fair associative case between zlefin and Silverarte as well (notably how hard zlefin tried to avoid having Silverarte drag him down). Look at how zlefin's read on Silverarte changed. First he was suspicious of her for being inactive, then he gave her a cautious town read (which I feel is unwarranted), and then when suspicion picked up on Silverarte, he switched back to scum reading her.
when did I give silver a cautious town read?
I'm asking because I don't remember doing that; and my point system shows no town points for silver.
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On February 23 2015 14:54 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2015 05:06 zlefin wrote:
I believe that's a good analysis, and would like to hear Silver's rebuttal. Also, if you think it's silver, any idea on who they're working with?
I'm starting to try to think on pairwise analysis to see who looks too in sync. This quote looks really weird with a flipped Silverarte..... Show nested quote +On February 20 2015 06:11 zlefin wrote:
Like I say, I could see a Trfel/Silver team as a possibility, as I looked over how things were done.
I maintain silver is a great target right now.
I'm suspicious of Tere as well, more suspicious than I am of trfel. Look at these sentences (all from the same quote, stand alone, I just removed the stuff in between. If Silverarte flips, he is setting himself up for pushing Trfel, taking credit for voting scum. And if Trfel flips town, he's setting himself up to push Tere in response. This post looks badJust a few random thoughts from zlefin's filter. I really think that the scum is zlefin, not jarjarbinks. Jarjarbinks has seemed more like town. There is a fair associative case between zlefin and Silverarte as well (notably how hard zlefin tried to avoid having Silverarte drag him down). Look at how zlefin's read on Silverarte changed. First he was suspicious of her for being inactive, then he gave her a cautious town read (which I feel is unwarranted), and then when suspicion picked up on Silverarte, he switched back to scum reading her.
I see nothing wrong with trying to figure out likely pairs.
There were 2 mafia in the game, and they're likely do at least a little coordination. So looking to see which pairs seem more cooperative is useful, and which people seem to be genuinely at odds.
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On February 23 2015 14:58 Trfel wrote:
There doesn't really need to be a case on zlefin. It's really simple.
He's being extremely cautious. His posts seem to be putting in effort to look towny. He is really cautious with his stance on Silverarte. He's always staying under the radar, seeming to scumhunt but never really memorable. One of those alone is not incriminating, but combined? I think he is scum trying to avoid being lynched at all costs.
I'm going to sleep now. Very interested to hear thoughts.
I'd say I'm cautious in general.
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Also, to the people who didn't understand my day 3, not that I can get why as I explained myself very clearly:
My view was approximately this (I say approximately because coming up with exact %'s is hard and unreliable, but it shows my viewpoint accurately):
Tere 60% chance scum
Trfel 25% chance scum
JJB 10% chance scum
Shining 5% chance scum.
Since there's one scum, the chances of course add up to 100%. With odds like that, and those odds being the result of everything that had happened in the thread up until then; post analysis, filter reading, etc;
then Tere was the best lynch. Doesn't mean guaranteed scum, or that everyone else is town. It means the highest probability of being scum, by a sufficiently large margin, that new analysis from a third day won't change the odds by enough to change who the best lynch is (since 3rd day new material won't be large enough to change the much larger amount of content that came before).
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Shining's play from day 3 on feels off, different than it was before.
But I can't make anything of it. If shining was mafia, there was little need to stir the pot when he was already the most townread player and hence likely to survive a lylo.
Sure it bulks up his towncred which would help if he survives the night (seeing as mafia in this game has been killing towniest players); but I think he'd have been fine without that, due to the oft-pointed to wifom of NKs.
Given the oddity of his play, and that his case on JJB was rather weak (not horrible, a case with some merit, but with real weaknesses, it felt much like Tere's case on Trfel); I feel more like Shining goal wasn't to target JJB per se, but to do a push to get reactions we could gauge in case the lynch turned out bad.
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As to rankings, it's terribly hard to rank myself since I don't try to estimate my own towniness.
Towniest:
Shining
Zlefin
JJB
Trfel
Scummiest:
But there's my ranking, though I'm considering swapping trfel and JJB. I haven't done another filter dive on JJB yet, and I need to do that to decide how I feel.
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On February 23 2015 08:07 jarjarbinks wrote:lol there won't be a tomorrow! You are showing that you are trying, which draws confusion. After some analysis you go ahead and sheep shining's read because it is your only way out from getting lynched. And don't even think I missed that feel question from you before you decided to finally vote for me. You were definitely checking to see if I thought about voting shining, so you can change the way you are making your reads.
this post concerns me, as JJB tends to be unsure about things, with lots of caveats. While this post shows a high level of certainty about something that's inherently unclear.
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My percents are not exact, they're an estimate that accurately shows what my perception was like to explain the point.
I simply used numbers that felt about right. There is no need to figure out %s that exactly, so I didn't bother to, only enough to demonstrate the point.
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I'm not sure I call this a townread; it's a town-favorable impression, which was reducing the prior scum-impression.
It depends whether by townread you mean thinking someone is town, or thinking something pushes someone closer to being town. If the latter, yes; if the former, not really, it looks too neutral for that.
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Noted that you feel that way.
I tend to be precise in my word usage, and if people misread things because they aren't being careful about the words used, it tends to irk me. Also, correcting people misreading things is good.
If you want to argue about whether an action is scummy or not, you need to know what the actual action is; if you're misreading the action itself, arguing about how the action appears seems pointless.
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Why they aren't scummy? They aren't scummy because they aren't; it's not like I said silver was town, I said he wasn't as scum as previously assessed, though still with reservations, which were pointed out very clearly.
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I think it was a useful tool for early on, to help organize my thoughts, but it's not necessary anymore as there's few enough people to track it in my head fine.
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It's also hard sometimes to figure whether to adjust by a point or not, and that wasn't productive time.
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Well, the towniest player was killed, no surprise there.
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Well, I've reread jarjar's filter, so I should reread Trfels, (or at least the important parts of it, it's big!). Then figure out who to vote on.
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I was considering that you and shining might have (by thinking the same idea) each placed a different person as the likely lynch, and use the night kill to see which one of you was killed. I didn't mention it as it would have messed up such a plan.
NK analysis is still wifom, but we can try to make something out of it, though the simplest explanation still looks to be best here.
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I considered some kind of shenanigan to try to draw out the scum for day 4, but I can't think of anything which had a good chance of working, that didn't come with high risks of its own, since shenanigans of the sort necessary would look scummy.
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Hmmm, so two of us have to agree on which other one to lynch, as per the rules on end-game votes.
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On February 24 2015 10:23 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2015 10:14 zlefin wrote:
Hmmm, so two of us have to agree on which other one to lynch, as per the rules on end-game votes.
Is that really what it is? I thought that the rule in question only applied if it was clear that it would be that way before the day began. Therefore, I think if we have a 1-1-1 split, whoever gets voted for first is the one who is lynched. That said, we had better have two people on the same target.
well, that's not how I read it, but you can ask those in charge.
The logic for it would fully apply to a 1-1-1 split, making sure it's not a vote race, because vote races are bad for deciding the game.
It just occurs to me, it must be logically possible for a mafia game to tie, if there's a lylo mislynch, but the remaining two people are the scum and a vigilante with a bullet left, and they kill each other at night.
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On February 24 2015 10:24 jarjarbinks wrote:
Sorry guys, this read analysis is taking me forever. On page 6 of zlefin.
Honestly I think both NK wifom and lych WIFOM are worth more than people credit for. I don't think it's 50/50. Although some people generally have better reads than others. With no real vet exp on Shining, I would have to think that there's a better chance that he was killed for his reads than to draw confusion.
That super long case on me sure has me looking awful here lol
no problem, take your time and get it right (while allowing enough time for people to look over your choice, if you wish)
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EPT
