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Next thing I want to comment are the nightkills. This is mainly aimed at Tube.
There’s a reason why NKs and night actions are generally considered WIFOM (or for the newer players, “wine in front of me” which means to disregard because multiple outcomes are equally likely)
On January 08 2015 22:58 Tubesock wrote:
I didn't even consider him being a role target. Mostly, because I just don't have any idea on where to start with role hunting. So, stuff that I don't have understanding on I typically ignore.
Tube, if you are going to use NK analysis, you have to take into account all possible outcomes. You are correct that scum will want to eliminate their biggest threats, so the point you have made on the vets should definitely be taken into consideration, but another priority is blue roles. You cannot ignore the fact that scum could potentially have been role hunting.
The reason why blue roles are a threat is that left alive too long, a blue role can claim at some point with all their cop checks, medic saves, etc, who’ve they have tracked, and that can narrow down a scumteam very quickly late game. Case in point, my own JK claim in Carol, D5. Revealed 3 saves, confirmed one mafia, shot HF's case out of the water along with his scumreads and got him lynched given the intentions behind the case.
For any given scumteam, there are traits in a forum that may signify blue roles. A blue role list of actions is much more hard evidence than any veteran staying alive, and the decision to make between how to prioritise NKs by role hunting or threats will vary by scumteam/setup/etc.
And this is why NKs are WIFOM, because you cannot know for sure how a scumteam would have made a decision. And especially in this game, a newbie game with coaches, (as others I believe have said) you don’t know what portions of the game have been coached.
If you want to use your arguments for determining threats to Trfel, etc as evidence, you need to use them in conjunction with other forms of evidence. If you use WIFOM arguments alone, you run the risk of running down the wrong rabbit hole.
Am I making sense?
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On January 09 2015 08:25 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 08:21 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 08:15 Tubesock wrote:
Celestial can't be bothered to make a case on Jarjar??? His number 2 read in all his scum list posts???
When I asked him to make a case, I said make a tough one that you stick your head out. And he starts one of LS??? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA I literally just stated that my case on jarjar was shaken by his massive improvement after the flip. Or did you miss that part? Or are you deliberately ignoring it? You asked for a case and since you were bloody well doubting the LS read I thought it would be handy for you to convince yourself on it. If you don't want that then fine. Other than LS, who are your top 2 scum reads and why?
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EBWOP - ALSO adding to the potential variability in NKs is the fact that this game is an open setup. I forgot that point.
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On January 09 2015 08:34 Half the Sky wrote:
EBWOP - ALSO adding to the potential variability in NKs is the fact that this game is an open setup. I forgot that point.
I do agree with that. And it's why I was waffling and asking for way more input.
On Night 1, I would think it's better to shoot a strong target than trying to blue hunt. Day 1 has literally no evidence, and it's not like anyone would breadcrumb, it's just guessing who is blue by ruling out the bleediest towns. You haven't posted much, Silverarte, gumdrops haven't posted much, why not shoot you or them if mafia knows they are town if they are blue hunting?
It's WIFOM I agree. I think the odds are better that they went for the Trfel as the only towny that was basically on the right track.
What do you think of Celestial now? I don't think the case on him really has anything to do with my tinfoil hat theory. That theory really is only concerning LS and Shining.
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I', going to out to eat and I will answer everything when I get back!
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HTS,
if you were a coach of a towny with a save roll, wouldn't you save either Celestial, Rsoultin or ExO over say you and Trfel? Or any of the lurkers?
If I were mafia, and I'm hunting blue, I'd shoot you. I don't think I'd protect you as a save roll though. I just don't see a world where mafia wouldn't think a shot on HTS is not safe. More WIFOM I know, but it seems low chance.
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Tube, people can breadcrumb their roles by accident.
It has happened. An example again from Carol. ObiWanShinobi, an experienced player disputed LoneMeow being town RIGHT BEFORE THE DAYPOST. (That's an example of a hint right there.) LoneMeow was recorded as being shot D2.
The scumteam picked up on that and he was shot the next night, flipped vigilante. Vivax did later on as he traced that NK in the actual thread, but the point still stands.
I am not disputing your train of thought, I can see where you are coming from, but you have to keep all options open.
As for Celestial, I definitely want to see more reads from him. I'm filter diving him right now. to see if I can grab anything indicative using my own thought process. I see why others have scumread him.
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On January 09 2015 08:55 Half the Sky wrote:
Tube, people can breadcrumb their roles by accident.
It has happened. An example again from Carol. ObiWanShinobi, an experienced player disputed LoneMeow being town RIGHT BEFORE THE DAYPOST. (That's an example of a hint right there.) LoneMeow was recorded as being shot D2.
The scumteam picked up on that and he was shot the next night, flipped vigilante. Vivax did later on as he traced that NK in the actual thread, but the point still stands.
I am not disputing your train of thought, I can see where you are coming from, but you have to keep all options open.
As for Celestial, I definitely want to see more reads from him. I'm filter diving him right now. to see if I can grab anything indicative using my own thought process. I see why others have scumread him.
Ok, I hear you. I won't hinder any LS/Shining wagon. I will push the Celestial one though.
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On January 09 2015 08:47 Tubesock wrote:
HTS,
if you were a coach of a towny with a save roll, wouldn't you save either Celestial, Rsoultin or ExO over say you and Trfel? Or any of the lurkers?
If I were mafia, and I'm hunting blue, I'd shoot you. I don't think I'd protect you as a save roll though. I just don't see a world where mafia wouldn't think a shot on HTS is not safe. More WIFOM I know, but it seems low chance.
This is all speculation. It depends on the coach's interpretation. Since you are asking me the question, if I were coaching a medic, it would depend on my interpretation of people, knowledge of people, if I think someone let the cat out of the cover (or breadcrumbed, as you put it) as a role, also depends on mechanics (varies by mod) since some medics cannot save the same person twice in a row, etc.
And now, you just gave me your own interpretation of whom you'd save or shoot, someone else that had different reads or understandings would take different actions. Also if someone has multiple town reads, they cannot save all of them.
Again, this is all WIFOM for a reason.
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On January 09 2015 08:25 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 08:21 -Celestial- wrote:On January 09 2015 08:15 Tubesock wrote:
Celestial can't be bothered to make a case on Jarjar??? His number 2 read in all his scum list posts???
When I asked him to make a case, I said make a tough one that you stick your head out. And he starts one of LS??? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA I literally just stated that my case on jarjar was shaken by his massive improvement after the flip. Or did you miss that part? Or are you deliberately ignoring it? You asked for a case and since you were bloody well doubting the LS read I thought it would be handy for you to convince yourself on it. If you don't want that then fine. Other than LS, who are your top 2 scum reads and why?
Fine you want some scumreads? Fine.
I scumread The Shining; but the problem with this read is I seriously doubt BOTH Shining AND LS are scum because it feels like they've been bussing each other too much and too early if they are, so I'm having trouble placing both on the same team. Regardless, reasoning is as follows:
- Massively inactive for the whole of D1. Not alignment indicative in and of itself but not good.
- Piggybacked my explanation of my thoughts towards rsoultin. AND townread me for it which is just bizarre in my opinion. That explanation in and of itself was not enough to town me. Either a newbie mistake or an attempt to start the ever popular "everyone is town" thread and then hide in the background.
- Immediately called out ExO with a kind of OMGUS on the basis of him calling a potential vig shot asking "why so quick to kill?" when...you know...why not if its a good shot? Seems to want to slow the game down potentially here and sow doubt for any potential vig.
- Then goes after ExO hard despite the fact his posts, although being fairly quick one after the other, generally had some kind of decent point and analysis to them (leading me to read him as town fairly early on). Jumping about, as long as there's a decent point to it and some thought gone into it, is not inherently scummy to me (unlike my early feeling on rsoultin). But Shining was quick to label it as scum behaviour.
- Although I'm dubious of meta arguments, Shining goes out of his way to say "discard my meta". This, to me, is effectively saying "ignore this potential source of evidence" which is very, very suspicious behaviour to me. Having an explanation for difference in behaviour...fine. But outright pre-emptively asking people to discard it? Hmmm.
- The VERY NEXT POST (actually two posts later, but one was a slight edit to the previous one) he votes ExO_, admitting that this vote is partially based on meta. Which considering he just asked us to discard his own past history comes across as incredibly hypocritical.
- Makes a big deal of wanting to look at WW's argument and saying he doesn't have much time. Note that by this point the voting was a little close (4 to 3), he asks a question regarding ties. He switches at the very last second, thoroughly sealing WW's fate (at any point up to that moment someone could have changed from WW to Shining to make it 4-3 in Shining's favour and changed the outcome). I'm not sure I'd inherently believe this is scum behaviour because frankly a town would do this too considering he was up for the chop but even so its not great.
- Post-flip he started to flat out state he'd done exactly what I'D done for LS. Namely he'd been suspicious of the "lets all be friends" mentality outlined by ExO_ but was convinced by LS arguing that he'd posted similar before. That is literally what I'd done the day before, and now he's copying my actions to excuse his.
- Goes on the attack against LS, his fellow wagon, accusing him of sheeping rsoultin (which in fairness is true but even so its a pretty easy way to distract any questions away from himself).
- Then a nice big vote analysis post. Throws out a bunch of townreads on the WW wagon, firmly pinning the blame on LS, again the rival wagon. Refrains from criticising ExO, a guy who up until now he'd had nailed to the wall. Instead choosing to aim at me and jarjar. Utilising arguments that I proved false or had already explained in a massive discussion with rsoultin. Brought nothing new to the table at all.
- Later admits that his justification at EoD was "just a facade to cover voting for my counterwagon". I don't know about anyone else but I really don't see why you would even need to justify that. Both town AND mafia would vote for a counterwagon on themselves. So it looks less suspicious than outright trying to make up a reason, which to me says you're looking for excuses to make in addition to getting the vote off yourself.
- He ended up getting into a discussion where he was pointing out he agreed with a prior thing I'd said (back to the rsoultin accusations). This is a bit superfluous, was just to explicitly point out what he was parroting from me.
Since then he's only really been complaining about rsoultin scumreading him and LS together. But that's not alignment indicative because there are any number of reasons for wanting to distance themselves regardless if they're both mafia or not.
I'll post another in a bit.
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Also my next one is probably going to be my thoughts on rsoultin. Its not as strong a case as I'd like but I think its got some merit to it.
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On January 09 2015 09:04 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 08:47 Tubesock wrote:
HTS,
if you were a coach of a towny with a save roll, wouldn't you save either Celestial, Rsoultin or ExO over say you and Trfel? Or any of the lurkers?
If I were mafia, and I'm hunting blue, I'd shoot you. I don't think I'd protect you as a save roll though. I just don't see a world where mafia wouldn't think a shot on HTS is not safe. More WIFOM I know, but it seems low chance. This is all speculation. It depends on the coach's interpretation. Since you are asking me the question, if I were coaching a medic, it would depend on my interpretation of people, knowledge of people, if I think someone let the cat out of the cover (or breadcrumbed, as you put it) as a role, also depends on mechanics (varies by mod) since some medics cannot save the same person twice in a row, etc. And now, you just gave me your own interpretation of whom you'd save or shoot, someone else that had different reads or understandings would take different actions. Also if someone has multiple town reads, they cannot save all of them. Again, this is all WIFOM for a reason.
Thank you. This is the stuff I need to hear, otherwise I just go deeper and deeper in the hole.
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Tube, I think I'm following your analysis? I really like your theory, if I'm understanding it right. It does bother me that mafia night killed (is that what NK is?) trfel after he said he was lost and confused.
Reasons to Night kill Trfel:
1. Past games show he's great (do they? it sounded like HTS was deemed as #1 player based on that one game. My sister was even talking about how good HTS was in that game. The only time she brought up the game too. Guess your like really good at this game HTS).
2. Super noobs. I=super noob. I was scared Trfel would lynch me day 1 for my lack of insight because of what people were saying about him before the game started. I think I even alluded that I was scared day 1 if you would to check that. People with lack of insight were day 1 lurkers... that would defend shining in my mind? a mafia lurker would definitely not scumread people no one else scumread that would In fact draw suspicion (im alluding to his hate on Exo at the beginning)
3. Thinking he's like a cop or doctor. I don't like this reason because he wasn't either. I don't think he appeared to be?
4.People thinking he was acting super towny. I disagree with this. One scumread I could make on trfel despite not looking into filter is that he was lost and confused after WW was found to be both town and veteran. Sounds like a basic mafia, almost too obvious to be mafia, but not a great post to say he's super town.
5. other reasons I can't think of.
I'm guessing #1 beats #2 because super noob mafia would listen to super good player mafia. In my mind super good player= players that have played the game before. What else would make you super good at this game besides like smarts?
Who would be the candidates for reason #1? I know rsoultin has played like 2-3 games. HTS has played games. This is Celestial's first game. Exo no clue. LS has played games...but you know looks like a beached whale. silver's first. my second/first real one. gum's first? tube's 3rd my guess based on posts? I'm missing people. I think someone else would be better at helping me here.
Guessing only 1 mafia is reason #1. if there are only 3 people that played often that only leaves a 1/3 chance of picking right on mafia. 3/11 is actually a better %...
I swear I will contribute someday.
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Also reasons that the above doesn't work: coaches...
dang u coaches.
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On January 09 2015 09:18 jarjarbinks wrote:
Also reasons that the above doesn't work: coaches...
dang u coaches.
On page 40 HTS explains why my tinfoil hat theory really can't be used. It's spot on.
HTS won the game for town hands down in Carol. Rsoultin had very logical posts and people respected (haha we thought she was a he then) her opinion.
Trfel, stopped EoD (End of Day) shenanigans with a pretty good case on Kelsier, and got us to switch to him and lynch mafia.
This is my second game.
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On January 09 2015 09:18 jarjarbinks wrote:
Also reasons that the above doesn't work: coaches...
dang u coaches.
Also, you really need to start bleeding town.
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ahh
I see that post now. I agree with that, I think my thought progression was slowly getting to that as well.
Celestial you are good at scumreads! Very detailed and has facts and stuff.
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...you know, regardless as to whether you guys actually believe that I work until 6pm CST, you should at least not be surprised when I'm not in the thread during my stated work hours. ^^
Accusing me of lurking is kind of amusing.
If anyone has questions/comments (yes, I have read the debating back and forth) I will be watching the thread, but I want to actually take the time to look at things and think them over without interference. Tomorrow we have a going-away in the afternoon, so with any luck I'll actually be here at EoD this time.
However, since I can't be sure about making EoD, I want to take the time to really look at people (so many nullish/scummy reads right now ><) and figure out the best one(s) to put up for lynch/vote on.
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On January 09 2015 09:26 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On January 09 2015 09:18 jarjarbinks wrote:
Also reasons that the above doesn't work: coaches...
dang u coaches. Also, you really need to start bleeding town.
I think people will see my as scum until I die. Honestly trying super hard after Exo blew up on me day 1.
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On January 09 2015 09:30 rsoultin wrote:
...you know, regardless as to whether you guys actually believe that I work until 6pm CST, you should at least not be surprised when I'm not in the thread during my stated work hours. ^^
Accusing me of lurking is kind of amusing.
If anyone has questions/comments (yes, I have read the debating back and forth) I will be watching the thread, but I want to actually take the time to look at things and think them over without interference. Tomorrow we have a going-away in the afternoon, so with any luck I'll actually be here at EoD this time.
However, since I can't be sure about making EoD, I want to take the time to really look at people (so many nullish/scummy reads right now ><) and figure out the best one(s) to put up for lynch/vote on.
You were asking for me yesterday. I'm here if you have questions.
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EPT
