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On January 08 2015 23:41 marvellosity wrote:
am I the only one who expects mafia to shoot for the cop? heh
So there are 3 scenarios.
1) Mafia shoots me
2) Mafia shoots marv (?)
3) Mafia shoots DP
I'd like to think that if mafia wasn't BM and if mafia played the game like it was intended to be played they would choose option 1 or 3, however I can see them avoiding 1 because of wifom, and avoiding 3 because they're bm assholes and choose to nk someone who isn't confirmed by both cops because that person just replaced in and doesn't have a grasp of the game.
HAVING SAID THAT: I think that DP started off very strongly, and mafia might still be inclined to nk DP. 1 and 3 are the only real plausible options for a real mafia team.
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On January 05 2015 13:09 Superbia wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2015 13:06 KelsierSC wrote:On January 05 2015 13:04 Superbia wrote:On January 05 2015 13:00 KelsierSC wrote:On January 05 2015 12:57 Superbia wrote:
I don't know about either wagon at the moment. explain why I found geript to be scummy early on but now I just don't know anymore. He has said some decent things and his reads feel somewhat okay-ish. I also don't feel like the mafia-meta I had on him also is that relevant after checking one of his town-games. I also feel like there's literally no one supporting him, which makes it hard to see him as scum. I don't think scum busses this hard this fast. Especially on a vet. Literally feels like he's alone in the game. Vivax I don't even have a read on. I checked his filter early on but kind of lost interest after seeing nothing standing out. I have read Koshi's case on him but meh. ok if you had to pick one? Vivax then, if I had to pick out of the two. He gave a read on me early on which sounded incredibly null and like he was ready to keep me available as a lynch option if necessary. Only based on that.
I think this was the post that made me reconsider on vivax
Plus, ritoky and super kinda sorta genuinely seem to want to lynch vivax...including yesterday. If you read ritoky's posts, it seems like he genuinely wouldn't mind lynching vivax. He obviously seems really reticent to do that w/r/t superbia
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On January 08 2015 23:47 marvellosity wrote:
in a total vacuum i find it kinda hard to tell from those posts.
i think the best evidence for damdred being town from those posts is how ritoky only attacks Damdred (and really runs with it) once someone else had brought it up - very conveniently
There is one post that makes damdred look bad though. Let me see if I can't find it. I kinda jumped passed it, and I'm not sure why, because it kinda made me reconsider...it's one where he talks about damdred and then votes vivax
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On January 05 2015 12:58 ritoky wrote:
on phone, only have like 5 minutes. apparently SL claimed cop since i last was able to read the thread. guess he is not the lynch today, evaluate claim later.
want to vote vivax, marv, maybe damdred. so for now: ##vote: vivax
This one.
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Like, is this a ploy from Vivax to night kill me and then say "I WOULD NEVER KILL ROBIK THERE -- I DIDN'T EVEN THINK HE WAS THE REAL COP"
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On January 08 2015 23:52 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2015 23:49 IAmRobik wrote:On January 05 2015 12:58 ritoky wrote:
on phone, only have like 5 minutes. apparently SL claimed cop since i last was able to read the thread. guess he is not the lynch today, evaluate claim later.
want to vote vivax, marv, maybe damdred. so for now: ##vote: vivax This one. any idea what the votecount looked like at the time?
Hour before lynch and basically all votes besides my own had moved off vivax at that point.
Pretty sure his vote was on vivax on d1 too.
That's part of the reason why I was calling him town, or at least not as scummy, but I think I was coming around to him being scum.
Also, that first big post that he made was pure garbage and full of fabricated reads. I didn't remember that little gem until yesterday when he claimed. I'm gonna go see who reacted well to that. I know artanis did. Not sure who else.
Also, it might be worth going back and reading up on eden's posts again. He (from sheeping me) was right on the first two scum so far.
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On January 09 2015 00:07 Vivax wrote:
In this case if I saw supers post while scumreading myself I would think "that shit is a bus cause Vivax wasn't getting lynched anyway" at that moment. Then again I'd have to look at the votecount at the time but if it was shortly after Sl's claim I think I lost most of the heat already.
nah. it was WAYYYYY after SL's claim. It was 1hour before EOD, and people hopped off of you and spread between geript/superbia 6 hours before EOD. Actually should go back and look at that vote too to see who was on super vs who was on geript. Would also be interesting to see who was on vivax that moved over to super. Those people are very likely town because i don't think scum jump from scum to scum or even town to scum when they can jump onto town!geript
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On January 09 2015 00:12 IAmRobik wrote:Show nested quote +On January 05 2015 08:10 Fecalfeast wrote:I Count this vote sons Vivax (5): IAmRobik, marvellosity, Palmar, justanothertownie, artanis[xP], VisceraEyes, DoctorHelvetica, Sicklucker, geript Superbia (1): artanis[xP], sicklucker, Damdred IAmRobik (0): geriptsicklucker (1): ritoky, superbiaTheChyz (0): Palmargeript (5): Vivax, artanis[xP], DoctorHelvetica, Lazermonkey, palmar Currently Vivax is set to be lynched.
Deadline is in Show nested quote +On January 05 2015 14:12 Alakaslam wrote:I Count this vote sons Vivax (3): IAmRobik, marvellosity, Palmar, justanothertownie, artanis[xP], VisceraEyes, DoctorHelvetica, Sicklucker, geript, ritoky Superbia (4): artanis[xP], sicklucker, Damdred, Artanis[XP], sicklucker, marvellosity, justanothertownie IAmRobik (1): geript, Superbia sicklucker (0): ritoky, superbiaTheChyz (0): Palmargeript (6): Vivax, Artanis[xP], DoctorHelvetica, Lazermonkey, palmar, VisceraEyes, justanothertownie, Artanis[XP] Geript is lynched.
Deadline is in Will analyze in a second. First thing that stands out is artanis making me want to puke
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On January 09 2015 00:11 Vivax wrote:
And now you say you were coming around to him being scum.
Gotta reread but I remember you listed him as scum and when JAT and Kelsier wanted to switch you didn't do jack.
Ritoky?
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Man. I love you vivax. If you're town and believe me as cop, this is the best thing ever because you're definitely doing a fine job of keeping me alive 
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On January 01 2015 14:12 sicklucker wrote:
Nice gb read. He has not done anything and he has done this in previous games therefor he is town.
town
On January 01 2015 21:49 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On January 01 2015 13:33 ritoky wrote:+ Show Spoiler [wall of reads] +finally caught up in the thread, don't have a lot of time because new years is a busy day in the ER; just gonna copy/paste my notes in the thread; sorry i can't be more engaged:
note - trying not to null read anyone from this point forward, list everyone as town or scum unless they haven't posted
koshi - his wording in certain cases seems like he is trying to appease (i.e. "TheChyz is not scummy to me. I am not saying he is a townread but the case Dr.H. makes is not how I read Chyz." and other cases of not saying people's alignment ex: calling me and drh meh), says needs something new and fresh doesn't make it happen. mafia pile
gb - did his "not reading the thread" shtick which he did as town twice before, done nothing else. town pile
*geript - start of game was town: jokes, prodding, pushing for answers, calling someone's case horrible. did mafia thing where promised information in terms of meta reads on people, hasn't delivered. dunno why, think this post is super town: "At some point yah. But I'd like to have a read on most of the people in the game. There's way too many inactives right now. Maybe when I reread I'll realize I'm being dumb idk. We'll see." could be wrong, look into again later. town pile for now*
artanis - asking questions, pushing for answers to his questions, him being "torn" about chyz seems a little odd not enough to worry now, but watch to see how that read develops. town pile
lazer - says won't lynch drh, then null reads me for essentially the same reason. makes not very much sense. has a torn sentiment on geript like me and skeptical of koshi like me. could be wrong, but read too strange. mafia pile
marv - supposedly great town player, managed 2nd page of filter while doing remarkably little. read on me seems lazy and inaccurate. mafia pile
^jat - bleeding town out of every orofice. town pile^
*robik - made it to almost 2 pages of his filter while complaining about not having time to play, could have spent time playing. promises to wreck, worth waiting until tomorrow to see because strong town player. town pile*
thechyz - posts seem incredibly honest...can't place finger on it. could be slight donkey, but really seemed concerned about thread direction. snap omgus'd drH, which seems more town responsive in the context. town pile
palmar - agree with lots of his reads, don't like excuses. town pile
damdred - has a non-lazy meta read on me as opposed to marv. pushing thread in productive direction and correcting others for misrepresenting people's arguments. town pile
*batsnacks - someone (look up later) said batsnacks has been playing differently. seems like same town batsnacks to me. could have bad read on him. town pile*
SL - bizarre play. seemed to be trying to defuse me and drH arguing early, has weird interaction where he demands i have a read on him, when i don't. formulates a bunch of random thoughts in regards to me not remembering previous game. no idea what he is talking about in the slightest. none of his other reads are formulated in a coherent way, done nothing townie. mafia pile
vivax - no post
*kels - evolving reads, when i was mafia last game with him had static reads that didn't change much of the game, currently his reads seem more fluid, probably town or got better at mafia. this was the guy who said bats playing differently, watch that read. town pile*
ritoky - town jesus
drH - guy contradicting himself all over the place. stupid policy crap, doesn't follow through. forgotten about it entirely at this point. no idea what he is doing. dumpster case on chyz, pot calling kettle black. calling out for hypocrisy not because he is actually scum. has largest filter, probably town unfortunately. is most likely donkey, be wary of his reads they may be bad. town pile
eden - town town town. giving reads unprovoked, not folding when pressured, commenting when unsolicited. seems invested in reads makes very good point about the timing of chyz's post and people exploiting it to get a read on chyz even though the situation had kinda already defused itself. town pile
*rebirth - "i'm here guys! notice me senpai!" into nothing. scum pile for now*
superbia - no post Forcing yourself to have a read on people that are null is pretty dumb and I have no idea why you consider me being torn on Chyz when there's been so many words on him scummy. Can you explain that to me? I also have no idea why you think that geript quote is super town. Whyo do you feel JAT is "bleeding town out of every orifice"? JAT has completely ransacked a bunch of good town players in one game and I haven't seen anything from him that I think he's incapable of doing as mafia. Why is Robik on the town pile when your reads state nothing townie about him other than a vague promise, and why is RoL scum for saying the exact same thing? Dr. H, your wall of texts tend to K.O. me. Could you run the most important points by me as brief as possible?
town
Those are the only two people who really commented on that shit post besides me and superbia
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Are you just trying to post quotes that make me town, vivax?
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I DON'T KNOW HOW THE FUCK YOU ARE QUOTING THE THINGS THAT YOU'RE QUOTING AND THEN TRYING TO CALL ME SCUM FOR IT?!?!?! ARE YOU FUCKING MAD MAN?
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Yes. I said that I wanted to lynch you because of Koshi and that I thought that we should lynch Super and Ritoky too because I think that Eden's reads were good. THEY WERE FUCKIGN GOOD. THEY WERE THE EXACT FUCKING READS I HAD IF YOU LOOK AT MY FUCKING POSTS
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Vivax, I hope you're scum. I really do. Because like. Man. Words can't describe how you make me feel right now
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On January 09 2015 00:25 marvellosity wrote:
this might be my favourite passage of the game yet
HE'S QUOTING THINGS THAT CONFIRM ME AS TOWN AND COMES TO THE CONCLUSION THAT I'M SCUM FOR IT. I DON'T UNDERSTAND WHAT WORLD HE'S LIVING IN!!?!?!?
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Oh sweet jesus. Give me the release
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On January 09 2015 00:28 Vivax wrote:
You're full of shit Robik.
Super voted you at EoD, but you townread him cause he voted me previously.
You wanted to kill me cause Koshi, but your real scumreads were superbia and ritoky. YOu townread superbia when he votes me, you don't scumread him when he votes you at EoD. Kelsier and JAT were begging for a switch to him, you didn't do anything except call us bad before and after geript was lynched.
You're eaaaaasy bro.Easy scumread.
WHAT THE FUCK ARE YOU TALKINGA BOUT. HE VOTED ME AT END OF DAY ON A DAY THAT HE GOT LYNCHED AS CONFIRMED MAFIA. WHY AM I GOING TO SCUM READ HIM WHEN HE'S DEAD!?!?!? I'VE BEEN FUCKING SCUM READING HIM. READ EVERY SINGLE FUCKING POST I'VE MADE THIS ENTIRE FUCKING GAME.
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On January 09 2015 00:29 marvellosity wrote:
time for Robik to start posting baby seals tbh
![[image loading]](http://36.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m5uav5JDoF1qdey1zo1_500.png)
just 1 for you
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On January 02 2015 16:00 IAmRobik wrote:Show nested quote +On January 02 2015 15:58 Eden1892 wrote:Alright, here's some vote count analysis. First, the count, hidden behind double quotes for readability. Added green for batsnacks' flip. On January 02 2015 13:56 Fecalfeast wrote:I kount vot ritoky (1): DoctorHelvetica, sicklucker, marvellosity, Superbia TheChyz (3): Eden1892, DoctorHelvetica, Vivax, TheChyz, Batsnacks, DoctorHelvetica, Artanis[Xp]DoctorHelvetica (0): TheChyz, Koshigeript (4): Koshi, Artanis[Xp], Palmar, Artanis[XP], Lazermonkey, DoctorHelvetica, Marvellosity, justanothertownie, KelsierSC, sicklucker, Eden1892marvellosity (0): Artanis[Xp]Lazermonkey (0): TheChyz, BatsnacksIAmRobik (0): Artanis[XP]sicklucker (1): ritoky Vivax (2): Koshi, geript Batsnacks (6): Justanothertownie, eden1892, doctorhelvetica, artanis[Xp], damdred, sicklucker Not Voting: folks Currently batsnacks is set to be lynched.
until deadline. First thing I want to look at is outliers, because I think they tend to be easier to figure out. The three wagons at end of day were Chyz, geript and batsnacks, so all other voters are defined as outliers here. They are: Superbia ritoky Koshi geript Additionally the nonvoting RebirthOfLegend can go here. Superbia: Has all of two posts in the game, neither of any substance. Says ritoky claimed mafia with their big reads post without explaining why, votes ritoky and then bails for the rest of the day, not bothering to convince anyone to vote for ritoky. Ignores JAT asking for an explanation, no one else really seems to care either way. I don't like this. For all I can derive from Superbia's thought process from this vote, this might as well be a dice roll vote. There's nothing here for me to make any sense of. If Superbia is town and believes ritoky is mafia then why not try to convince anyone to kill ritoky? And if Superbia doesn't then why completely abandon the thread and not bother to try to figure out who is mafia? ritoky: After the vote (which came between his big reads list post and his next post itt), ritoky only brings up the case on sicklucker once... when sicklucker questions him on it. Spends most of the day being engaged in other discussions and feeling out other players for their direction, but doesn't push the case on sicklucker. And it's not even not pushing it because of a change of heart or anything, as far as I can see. The case is just dropped altogether without any mention, like it never existed. After talking to sicklucker there's only one passing reference to the suspicion at all (responding to GlowingBear and saying they were "on the same page" concerning, among others, sicklucker). This is really suspicious considering how aggressively ritoky pushed early in the game. Even allowing for a change in posting style due to time constraints resulting from ER work, you figure that if ritoky is still sure about the read on sicklucker that there'd be some effort to push it. And ritoky can't even claim to have had a change of heart, because sometime during ritoky's last burst of activity, (s)he posted an updated vote count including the vote for sicklucker. I feel like if I were a townie here and I had posted that vote count update after suspecting sicklucker, and I had internally changed my mind about sicklucker being mafia, posting that I was voting for sicklucker would be a wakeup call. Like "whoa, wait, I'm still on that guy? I need to move my vote." Koshi: Arrived at suspicion of Vivax about an hour before posting a vote, pressed Vivax on a few key questions during that hour, pushed the hell out of a Vivax lynch before going to bed at a time which 100% syncs up with his irl location. Sorry that was short but this looks clean as can be. Only reason Koshi was on an outlier was because of a lack of time to push the case once it formulated. Koshi is probably town. geript: On January 02 2015 14:24 geript wrote:
Not ideal. I just assumed I was going to be lynched or at worst Chyz. Best option Vivax. I get why Bat was sketch, but why the last second switch? This is garbage. Vivax wasn't a viable wagon at all when geript posted and geript had enough time to see that. It was 20 minutes before the lynch. The switch wasn't even last-second, it was last-hour. At the time he voted Chyz was in no danger of being voted off. How do you check in to a voting thread and vote for someone who isn't a viable wagon out of fear that either you or someone else who isn't a viable wagon is going to get killed? And especially if you "get why Bat was sketch," how in the world do you have a hangup about voting for him and instead park on an outlier? And then there's this gem shortly before: On January 02 2015 12:23 geript wrote:
Vivax is probably an ok lynch but I'm not actually sold that he'll flip mafia. So now it's checking into a voting thread, voting for someone you're not even sure is mafia who also isn't a viable wagon out of fear that either you or someone else who isn't a viable wagon is going to get killed. geript has a lot of explaining to do. Doc asks a good question about why mafia!geript does this in light of batsnacks flipping town; I feel like the answer that came to mind for me (not wanting to be a town wagon) isn't a very good one, and it's still the best one I have. But I don't get the townie mindset that leads to ^^^that. TL;DR ritoky, Superbia mafia geript wtf You shouldn't do such baller analysis -- you might die in the night. P.S. I came to the same conclusion as your regarding your scum reads. Excellent work
On January 02 2015 16:27 IAmRobik wrote:Show nested quote +On January 02 2015 16:24 Eden1892 wrote:On January 02 2015 16:00 IAmRobik wrote:On January 02 2015 15:58 Eden1892 wrote:Alright, here's some vote count analysis. First, the count, hidden behind double quotes for readability. Added green for batsnacks' flip. On January 02 2015 13:56 Fecalfeast wrote:I kount vot ritoky (1): DoctorHelvetica, sicklucker, marvellosity, Superbia TheChyz (3): Eden1892, DoctorHelvetica, Vivax, TheChyz, Batsnacks, DoctorHelvetica, Artanis[Xp]DoctorHelvetica (0): TheChyz, Koshigeript (4): Koshi, Artanis[Xp], Palmar, Artanis[XP], Lazermonkey, DoctorHelvetica, Marvellosity, justanothertownie, KelsierSC, sicklucker, Eden1892marvellosity (0): Artanis[Xp]Lazermonkey (0): TheChyz, BatsnacksIAmRobik (0): Artanis[XP]sicklucker (1): ritoky Vivax (2): Koshi, geript Batsnacks (6): Justanothertownie, eden1892, doctorhelvetica, artanis[Xp], damdred, sicklucker Not Voting: folks Currently batsnacks is set to be lynched.
until deadline. First thing I want to look at is outliers, because I think they tend to be easier to figure out. The three wagons at end of day were Chyz, geript and batsnacks, so all other voters are defined as outliers here. They are: Superbia ritoky Koshi geript Additionally the nonvoting RebirthOfLegend can go here. Superbia: Has all of two posts in the game, neither of any substance. Says ritoky claimed mafia with their big reads post without explaining why, votes ritoky and then bails for the rest of the day, not bothering to convince anyone to vote for ritoky. Ignores JAT asking for an explanation, no one else really seems to care either way. I don't like this. For all I can derive from Superbia's thought process from this vote, this might as well be a dice roll vote. There's nothing here for me to make any sense of. If Superbia is town and believes ritoky is mafia then why not try to convince anyone to kill ritoky? And if Superbia doesn't then why completely abandon the thread and not bother to try to figure out who is mafia? ritoky: After the vote (which came between his big reads list post and his next post itt), ritoky only brings up the case on sicklucker once... when sicklucker questions him on it. Spends most of the day being engaged in other discussions and feeling out other players for their direction, but doesn't push the case on sicklucker. And it's not even not pushing it because of a change of heart or anything, as far as I can see. The case is just dropped altogether without any mention, like it never existed. After talking to sicklucker there's only one passing reference to the suspicion at all (responding to GlowingBear and saying they were "on the same page" concerning, among others, sicklucker). This is really suspicious considering how aggressively ritoky pushed early in the game. Even allowing for a change in posting style due to time constraints resulting from ER work, you figure that if ritoky is still sure about the read on sicklucker that there'd be some effort to push it. And ritoky can't even claim to have had a change of heart, because sometime during ritoky's last burst of activity, (s)he posted an updated vote count including the vote for sicklucker. I feel like if I were a townie here and I had posted that vote count update after suspecting sicklucker, and I had internally changed my mind about sicklucker being mafia, posting that I was voting for sicklucker would be a wakeup call. Like "whoa, wait, I'm still on that guy? I need to move my vote." Koshi: Arrived at suspicion of Vivax about an hour before posting a vote, pressed Vivax on a few key questions during that hour, pushed the hell out of a Vivax lynch before going to bed at a time which 100% syncs up with his irl location. Sorry that was short but this looks clean as can be. Only reason Koshi was on an outlier was because of a lack of time to push the case once it formulated. Koshi is probably town. geript: On January 02 2015 14:24 geript wrote:
Not ideal. I just assumed I was going to be lynched or at worst Chyz. Best option Vivax. I get why Bat was sketch, but why the last second switch? This is garbage. Vivax wasn't a viable wagon at all when geript posted and geript had enough time to see that. It was 20 minutes before the lynch. The switch wasn't even last-second, it was last-hour. At the time he voted Chyz was in no danger of being voted off. How do you check in to a voting thread and vote for someone who isn't a viable wagon out of fear that either you or someone else who isn't a viable wagon is going to get killed? And especially if you "get why Bat was sketch," how in the world do you have a hangup about voting for him and instead park on an outlier? And then there's this gem shortly before: On January 02 2015 12:23 geript wrote:
Vivax is probably an ok lynch but I'm not actually sold that he'll flip mafia. So now it's checking into a voting thread, voting for someone you're not even sure is mafia who also isn't a viable wagon out of fear that either you or someone else who isn't a viable wagon is going to get killed. geript has a lot of explaining to do. Doc asks a good question about why mafia!geript does this in light of batsnacks flipping town; I feel like the answer that came to mind for me (not wanting to be a town wagon) isn't a very good one, and it's still the best one I have. But I don't get the townie mindset that leads to ^^^that. TL;DR ritoky, Superbia mafia geript wtf You shouldn't do such baller analysis -- you might die in the night. P.S. I came to the same conclusion as your regarding your scum reads. Excellent work Thanks bae. Anything to add? Not really. I was just randomly clicking on filters and I saw that superbia's was utter garbage and we should lynch him like 90% of the time tomorrow Then I remembered how much I wanted to lynch Ritoky. So like I said, you done did great (no that's not an error)
BOTH OF THESE POSTS WERE IN THE FUCKING NIGHT BEFORE EITHER KOSHI OR EDEN DIED. GET OUT OF MY FACE
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EPT
