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On December 14 2014 10:27 ObiWanShinobi wrote:The most likely scenario we're dealing with is that there's scum on the Holyflare wagon. We hunt there first, and if Hf gets shot by either mafia or a vigilante and flips town, then we're in an awesome spot information-wise because we know exactly where some scum have hid, and it's likely there's more than one on his wagon. I just realized there's actually a scenario where Oats could be scum with Holyflare, but that would depend on the mafia team so absolved of thread influence that two mafia were the leading wagons and the whole team is made up of useless players with no thread pull. Just an fyi, Holyflare is anything but useless. It would be amazing if that were the case, but I don't think it is: out of the people who fit the bill based on their votes, LS is a claimed role as well, so it's unlikely. All of this is mostly speculation at this point. I need to do more legwork to get my analysis out before I most likely get shot. 
1st paragraph won't happen :/ although I want HF lynched, I don't think he is a good vigi shot.
2nd paragraph: yeah, he isn't useless, but he is scummy. I'll debunk his defense soon. Although I'll say in advance that I may have misread something in his filter, since I couldn't find where he explicitly said froggy is scummy. All I've got was him calling his entrance out and saying froggy looks terrible (which, for me, is a way to say someone looks scummy), but I couldn't find where he explicitly said he was scum. Bummer.
I believe it's possible that both wagons were mafia. Holyflare's vote was on FF. I simply don't like FFs wagon. Gonna check it again
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On December 14 2014 10:34 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 10:17 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 10:08 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On December 14 2014 10:03 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 09:54 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
I don't think it really matters either way since I always look for agenda in someone's votes when scum flips, and I don't see any in Oats' votes.
They're useless, but they're town useless imo.
I might do some wagon analysis later on, we'll see. Can you tell me how do you distinguish town useless from mafia useless? See above: where is the scum motivation in leaving your vote off of both main wagons when scum is one of the wagons? His vote could have changed the outcome. It didn't; hence, no real agenda behind his useless vote. If Holyflare is scum, then that might change things based on the fact that he might have implicated himself...but it's still unlikely. scum!Oats can still get a lot of mileage out of some towncred even if both wagons are scum. Oats is not a target for tomorrow based on his vote. You're awesome. But, thinking of it that way, scum probably consolidated on HFs wagon, if HF is town, right? Lol is this a trap of some sort? What prevents scum from being on either wagon? Though if we're looking for odd votes that changed suddenly, Vivax was pushing KSC in Day 1 and Day 2...then suddenly shifts to HF with nothing to say for himself than "GBs case convinced me". HF turns out to be town, that would be the first spot I'd look. KSC seems like a good alt lynch to divide up town votes, but not so good when everyone jumps on board, no? By the same reasoning, Trfel's position was odd. He makes a good case against KSC, argues against GB's case enough to put KSC as the better lynch, then last minute also switches to HF on a "gut feeling". Though he was also the one asking Vivax why Vivax switched. Which is weird since neither seemed to have great reasons to do so.
Why would it be a trap? Mafia has no motivation to buss at this point. If HF is town, mafia is most likely on his wagon.
I can't see the problem with this kind of thought...
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On December 14 2014 10:34 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 10:27 ObiWanShinobi wrote:The most likely scenario we're dealing with is that there's scum on the Holyflare wagon. We hunt there first, and if Hf gets shot by either mafia or a vigilante and flips town, then we're in an awesome spot information-wise because we know exactly where some scum have hid, and it's likely there's more than one on his wagon. I just realized there's actually a scenario where Oats could be scum with Holyflare, but that would depend on the mafia team so absolved of thread influence that two mafia were the leading wagons and the whole team is made up of useless players with no thread pull. Just an fyi, Holyflare is anything but useless. It would be amazing if that were the case, but I don't think it is: out of the people who fit the bill based on their votes, LS is a claimed role as well, so it's unlikely. All of this is mostly speculation at this point. I need to do more legwork to get my analysis out before I most likely get shot. 1st paragraph won't happen :/ although I want HF lynched, I don't think he is a good vigi shot. 2nd paragraph: yeah, he isn't useless, but he is scummy. I'll debunk his defense soon. Although I'll say in advance that I may have misread something in his filter, since I couldn't find where he explicitly said froggy is scummy. All I've got was him calling his entrance out and saying froggy looks terrible (which, for me, is a way to say someone looks scummy), but I couldn't find where he explicitly said he was scum. Bummer. I believe it's possible that both wagons were mafia. Holyflare's vote was on FF. I simply don't like FFs wagon. Gonna check it again
although I want HF lynched, I don't think he is a good vigi shot.
what?
HF needs to flip tonight or discussion won't progress tomorrow
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On December 14 2014 10:34 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 10:17 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 10:08 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On December 14 2014 10:03 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 09:54 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
I don't think it really matters either way since I always look for agenda in someone's votes when scum flips, and I don't see any in Oats' votes.
They're useless, but they're town useless imo.
I might do some wagon analysis later on, we'll see. Can you tell me how do you distinguish town useless from mafia useless? See above: where is the scum motivation in leaving your vote off of both main wagons when scum is one of the wagons? His vote could have changed the outcome. It didn't; hence, no real agenda behind his useless vote. If Holyflare is scum, then that might change things based on the fact that he might have implicated himself...but it's still unlikely. scum!Oats can still get a lot of mileage out of some towncred even if both wagons are scum. Oats is not a target for tomorrow based on his vote. You're awesome. But, thinking of it that way, scum probably consolidated on HFs wagon, if HF is town, right? Lol is this a trap of some sort? What prevents scum from being on either wagon? Though if we're looking for odd votes that changed suddenly, Vivax was pushing KSC in Day 1 and Day 2...then suddenly shifts to HF with nothing to say for himself than "GBs case convinced me".HF turns out to be town, that would be the first spot I'd look. KSC seems like a good alt lynch to divide up town votes, but not so good when everyone jumps on board, no? By the same reasoning, Trfel's position was odd. He makes a good case against KSC, argues against GB's case enough to put KSC as the better lynch, then last minute also switches to HF on a "gut feeling". Though he was also the one asking Vivax why Vivax switched. Which is weird since neither seemed to have great reasons to do so.
The bolded is a good catch. I have to look into that as well.
Scum can be anywhere, but where's the scum motivation in throwing your own partner under the bus when the alternative is lynching Holyflare, who is a role?
You think it's impossible, but I'm telling you that in a choice between my scum partner and a high-profile player who is incredibly dangerous, I lynch Holyflare every time. I actually got caught doing this in my scum game, so saying that it's still probable for scum to be on the KSC wagon if HF is town is really, really weird.
Also, Trfel is town. There is literally no world where we lynch KSC today without his analysis so him getting impulsive (another townie quality) and switching because he lost his nerve/confidence means little in the grand scheme of things.
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I've never seen you this townie, obi.
Btw, what do you make of Kelsier keeping his vote on FF since the beginning, obi?
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On December 14 2014 10:38 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 10:34 rsoultin wrote:On December 14 2014 10:17 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 10:08 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On December 14 2014 10:03 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 09:54 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
I don't think it really matters either way since I always look for agenda in someone's votes when scum flips, and I don't see any in Oats' votes.
They're useless, but they're town useless imo.
I might do some wagon analysis later on, we'll see. Can you tell me how do you distinguish town useless from mafia useless? See above: where is the scum motivation in leaving your vote off of both main wagons when scum is one of the wagons? His vote could have changed the outcome. It didn't; hence, no real agenda behind his useless vote. If Holyflare is scum, then that might change things based on the fact that he might have implicated himself...but it's still unlikely. scum!Oats can still get a lot of mileage out of some towncred even if both wagons are scum. Oats is not a target for tomorrow based on his vote. You're awesome. But, thinking of it that way, scum probably consolidated on HFs wagon, if HF is town, right? Lol is this a trap of some sort? What prevents scum from being on either wagon? Though if we're looking for odd votes that changed suddenly, Vivax was pushing KSC in Day 1 and Day 2...then suddenly shifts to HF with nothing to say for himself than "GBs case convinced me". HF turns out to be town, that would be the first spot I'd look. KSC seems like a good alt lynch to divide up town votes, but not so good when everyone jumps on board, no? By the same reasoning, Trfel's position was odd. He makes a good case against KSC, argues against GB's case enough to put KSC as the better lynch, then last minute also switches to HF on a "gut feeling". Though he was also the one asking Vivax why Vivax switched. Which is weird since neither seemed to have great reasons to do so. Why would it be a trap? Mafia has no motivation to buss at this point. If HF is town, mafia is most likely on his wagon. I can't see the problem with this kind of thought...
I find it unlikely with most of the votes split that every single mafia member was on HF or voting somewhere else. Especially toward the end. Particularly because KSC didn't really try to save himself. More likely he was either trying to protect HF or at least some mafia were taking the opportunity to buss him. Think about it. If the guy is the branch manager and there are already 3 disgruntled workers dead, his usefulness to mafia is questionable at best. He's not a terrible sacrifice (and being sick, he may have preferred to remove himself from the game anyway).
Speculation that all mafia were on HF at the time seems inherently flawed when the odds don't point to anything that clean.
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On December 14 2014 10:44 liancourt wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 10:34 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 10:27 ObiWanShinobi wrote:The most likely scenario we're dealing with is that there's scum on the Holyflare wagon. We hunt there first, and if Hf gets shot by either mafia or a vigilante and flips town, then we're in an awesome spot information-wise because we know exactly where some scum have hid, and it's likely there's more than one on his wagon. I just realized there's actually a scenario where Oats could be scum with Holyflare, but that would depend on the mafia team so absolved of thread influence that two mafia were the leading wagons and the whole team is made up of useless players with no thread pull. Just an fyi, Holyflare is anything but useless. It would be amazing if that were the case, but I don't think it is: out of the people who fit the bill based on their votes, LS is a claimed role as well, so it's unlikely. All of this is mostly speculation at this point. I need to do more legwork to get my analysis out before I most likely get shot. 1st paragraph won't happen :/ although I want HF lynched, I don't think he is a good vigi shot. 2nd paragraph: yeah, he isn't useless, but he is scummy. I'll debunk his defense soon. Although I'll say in advance that I may have misread something in his filter, since I couldn't find where he explicitly said froggy is scummy. All I've got was him calling his entrance out and saying froggy looks terrible (which, for me, is a way to say someone looks scummy), but I couldn't find where he explicitly said he was scum. Bummer. I believe it's possible that both wagons were mafia. Holyflare's vote was on FF. I simply don't like FFs wagon. Gonna check it again what? HF needs to flip tonight or discussion won't progress tomorrow
He isn't a good vigi shot. Period.
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On December 14 2014 10:48 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 10:44 liancourt wrote:On December 14 2014 10:34 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 10:27 ObiWanShinobi wrote:The most likely scenario we're dealing with is that there's scum on the Holyflare wagon. We hunt there first, and if Hf gets shot by either mafia or a vigilante and flips town, then we're in an awesome spot information-wise because we know exactly where some scum have hid, and it's likely there's more than one on his wagon. I just realized there's actually a scenario where Oats could be scum with Holyflare, but that would depend on the mafia team so absolved of thread influence that two mafia were the leading wagons and the whole team is made up of useless players with no thread pull. Just an fyi, Holyflare is anything but useless. It would be amazing if that were the case, but I don't think it is: out of the people who fit the bill based on their votes, LS is a claimed role as well, so it's unlikely. All of this is mostly speculation at this point. I need to do more legwork to get my analysis out before I most likely get shot. 1st paragraph won't happen :/ although I want HF lynched, I don't think he is a good vigi shot. 2nd paragraph: yeah, he isn't useless, but he is scummy. I'll debunk his defense soon. Although I'll say in advance that I may have misread something in his filter, since I couldn't find where he explicitly said froggy is scummy. All I've got was him calling his entrance out and saying froggy looks terrible (which, for me, is a way to say someone looks scummy), but I couldn't find where he explicitly said he was scum. Bummer. I believe it's possible that both wagons were mafia. Holyflare's vote was on FF. I simply don't like FFs wagon. Gonna check it again although I want HF lynched, I don't think he is a good vigi shot. what? HF needs to flip tonight or discussion won't progress tomorrow He isn't a good vigi shot. Period.
Fail to see your reasoning here. If he's scum, dead is dead. If he's town, we waste a day trying to lynch him (or arguing about lynching him) tomorrow.
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Canada11355 Posts
town circle is forming nicely in my brain, will post it later on when I'm not at work
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On December 14 2014 10:50 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 10:48 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 10:44 liancourt wrote:On December 14 2014 10:34 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 10:27 ObiWanShinobi wrote:The most likely scenario we're dealing with is that there's scum on the Holyflare wagon. We hunt there first, and if Hf gets shot by either mafia or a vigilante and flips town, then we're in an awesome spot information-wise because we know exactly where some scum have hid, and it's likely there's more than one on his wagon. I just realized there's actually a scenario where Oats could be scum with Holyflare, but that would depend on the mafia team so absolved of thread influence that two mafia were the leading wagons and the whole team is made up of useless players with no thread pull. Just an fyi, Holyflare is anything but useless. It would be amazing if that were the case, but I don't think it is: out of the people who fit the bill based on their votes, LS is a claimed role as well, so it's unlikely. All of this is mostly speculation at this point. I need to do more legwork to get my analysis out before I most likely get shot. 1st paragraph won't happen :/ although I want HF lynched, I don't think he is a good vigi shot. 2nd paragraph: yeah, he isn't useless, but he is scummy. I'll debunk his defense soon. Although I'll say in advance that I may have misread something in his filter, since I couldn't find where he explicitly said froggy is scummy. All I've got was him calling his entrance out and saying froggy looks terrible (which, for me, is a way to say someone looks scummy), but I couldn't find where he explicitly said he was scum. Bummer. I believe it's possible that both wagons were mafia. Holyflare's vote was on FF. I simply don't like FFs wagon. Gonna check it again although I want HF lynched, I don't think he is a good vigi shot. what? HF needs to flip tonight or discussion won't progress tomorrow He isn't a good vigi shot. Period. Fail to see your reasoning here. If he's scum, dead is dead. If he's town, we waste a day trying to lynch him (or arguing about lynching him) tomorrow.
No specific logic. Bad vigi shot. That's all.
Let's move on to the next topic.
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On December 14 2014 10:52 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 10:50 rsoultin wrote:On December 14 2014 10:48 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 10:44 liancourt wrote:On December 14 2014 10:34 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 10:27 ObiWanShinobi wrote:The most likely scenario we're dealing with is that there's scum on the Holyflare wagon. We hunt there first, and if Hf gets shot by either mafia or a vigilante and flips town, then we're in an awesome spot information-wise because we know exactly where some scum have hid, and it's likely there's more than one on his wagon. I just realized there's actually a scenario where Oats could be scum with Holyflare, but that would depend on the mafia team so absolved of thread influence that two mafia were the leading wagons and the whole team is made up of useless players with no thread pull. Just an fyi, Holyflare is anything but useless. It would be amazing if that were the case, but I don't think it is: out of the people who fit the bill based on their votes, LS is a claimed role as well, so it's unlikely. All of this is mostly speculation at this point. I need to do more legwork to get my analysis out before I most likely get shot. 1st paragraph won't happen :/ although I want HF lynched, I don't think he is a good vigi shot. 2nd paragraph: yeah, he isn't useless, but he is scummy. I'll debunk his defense soon. Although I'll say in advance that I may have misread something in his filter, since I couldn't find where he explicitly said froggy is scummy. All I've got was him calling his entrance out and saying froggy looks terrible (which, for me, is a way to say someone looks scummy), but I couldn't find where he explicitly said he was scum. Bummer. I believe it's possible that both wagons were mafia. Holyflare's vote was on FF. I simply don't like FFs wagon. Gonna check it again although I want HF lynched, I don't think he is a good vigi shot. what? HF needs to flip tonight or discussion won't progress tomorrow He isn't a good vigi shot. Period. Fail to see your reasoning here. If he's scum, dead is dead. If he's town, we waste a day trying to lynch him (or arguing about lynching him) tomorrow. No specific logic. Bad vigi shot. That's all. Let's move on to the next topic.
Not acceptable. If you don't have a reason to say that, why are you saying it? I am trying to play ball with you here, GB...I'm not sold that you're not town or that HF isn't mafia, so can you at least work with me a little here?
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On December 14 2014 10:47 GlowingBear wrote:
I've never seen you this townie, obi.
Btw, what do you make of Kelsier keeping his vote on FF since the beginning, obi?
Wagon/environment analysis is kind of my thing.
KSC keeping his vote on FF, especially when it looked like FF getting lynched was a very real possibility, means that FF is more likely to be town.
But he still needs to step his shit up and play because there's no way he can coast off of that fact.
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Canada11355 Posts
I hear you obi, I got a second wind for this game.
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On December 14 2014 10:54 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 10:52 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 10:50 rsoultin wrote:On December 14 2014 10:48 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 10:44 liancourt wrote:On December 14 2014 10:34 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 10:27 ObiWanShinobi wrote:The most likely scenario we're dealing with is that there's scum on the Holyflare wagon. We hunt there first, and if Hf gets shot by either mafia or a vigilante and flips town, then we're in an awesome spot information-wise because we know exactly where some scum have hid, and it's likely there's more than one on his wagon. I just realized there's actually a scenario where Oats could be scum with Holyflare, but that would depend on the mafia team so absolved of thread influence that two mafia were the leading wagons and the whole team is made up of useless players with no thread pull. Just an fyi, Holyflare is anything but useless. It would be amazing if that were the case, but I don't think it is: out of the people who fit the bill based on their votes, LS is a claimed role as well, so it's unlikely. All of this is mostly speculation at this point. I need to do more legwork to get my analysis out before I most likely get shot. 1st paragraph won't happen :/ although I want HF lynched, I don't think he is a good vigi shot. 2nd paragraph: yeah, he isn't useless, but he is scummy. I'll debunk his defense soon. Although I'll say in advance that I may have misread something in his filter, since I couldn't find where he explicitly said froggy is scummy. All I've got was him calling his entrance out and saying froggy looks terrible (which, for me, is a way to say someone looks scummy), but I couldn't find where he explicitly said he was scum. Bummer. I believe it's possible that both wagons were mafia. Holyflare's vote was on FF. I simply don't like FFs wagon. Gonna check it again although I want HF lynched, I don't think he is a good vigi shot. what? HF needs to flip tonight or discussion won't progress tomorrow He isn't a good vigi shot. Period. Fail to see your reasoning here. If he's scum, dead is dead. If he's town, we waste a day trying to lynch him (or arguing about lynching him) tomorrow. No specific logic. Bad vigi shot. That's all. Let's move on to the next topic. Not acceptable. If you don't have a reason to say that, why are you saying it? I am trying to play ball with you here, GB...I'm not sold that you're not town or that HF isn't mafia, so can you at least work with me a little here?
I can, but this is not a thing to be discussed at night. I can talk about any other topic you want
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your Country52798 Posts
On December 14 2014 09:27 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2014 09:05 KelsierSC wrote:
I'm liking holyflare now, i didn't like his post about how he wasn't going to post, seemed like a good excuse to lurk. But he has backed it up with actual pressure.his pressure on nb is actually strong and the explanation is good. It also feels like town hf to me.
This guy has also pretty confirmed me as town
...at the beginning of day 1 -_-
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On December 14 2014 11:00 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 10:54 rsoultin wrote:On December 14 2014 10:52 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 10:50 rsoultin wrote:On December 14 2014 10:48 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 10:44 liancourt wrote:On December 14 2014 10:34 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 10:27 ObiWanShinobi wrote:The most likely scenario we're dealing with is that there's scum on the Holyflare wagon. We hunt there first, and if Hf gets shot by either mafia or a vigilante and flips town, then we're in an awesome spot information-wise because we know exactly where some scum have hid, and it's likely there's more than one on his wagon. I just realized there's actually a scenario where Oats could be scum with Holyflare, but that would depend on the mafia team so absolved of thread influence that two mafia were the leading wagons and the whole team is made up of useless players with no thread pull. Just an fyi, Holyflare is anything but useless. It would be amazing if that were the case, but I don't think it is: out of the people who fit the bill based on their votes, LS is a claimed role as well, so it's unlikely. All of this is mostly speculation at this point. I need to do more legwork to get my analysis out before I most likely get shot. 1st paragraph won't happen :/ although I want HF lynched, I don't think he is a good vigi shot. 2nd paragraph: yeah, he isn't useless, but he is scummy. I'll debunk his defense soon. Although I'll say in advance that I may have misread something in his filter, since I couldn't find where he explicitly said froggy is scummy. All I've got was him calling his entrance out and saying froggy looks terrible (which, for me, is a way to say someone looks scummy), but I couldn't find where he explicitly said he was scum. Bummer. I believe it's possible that both wagons were mafia. Holyflare's vote was on FF. I simply don't like FFs wagon. Gonna check it again although I want HF lynched, I don't think he is a good vigi shot. what? HF needs to flip tonight or discussion won't progress tomorrow He isn't a good vigi shot. Period. Fail to see your reasoning here. If he's scum, dead is dead. If he's town, we waste a day trying to lynch him (or arguing about lynching him) tomorrow. No specific logic. Bad vigi shot. That's all. Let's move on to the next topic. Not acceptable. If you don't have a reason to say that, why are you saying it? I am trying to play ball with you here, GB...I'm not sold that you're not town or that HF isn't mafia, so can you at least work with me a little here? I can, but this is not a thing to be discussed at night. I can talk about any other topic you want
...Unless you're trying to tell me that you're no longer certain of HF's alignment, it seems like you just don't want people to see him flip. And if you're no longer certain of HF's alignment, you should be able to "discuss" that just fine. I'm not an idiot to not understand what you're hinting at here, but the dodging is unnecessary when all you had to say was "I'm having doubts."
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The Templar I got a question for you
Earlier in the thread you used a RNG thing to find scum and landed on KSC who turned out to be Mafia. No can you see if you can use another RNG and find the next scum?
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So my siblings are 2 for 4 or counting the adopted 6 for 11
Awesome
Gotta pull mah weight yseeeee
So like wine is not supposed to taste like rubbing alcohol right? Wjat happened with the vintage for this year or whenever they boy the champagne
Like it is stupidly flavorless & hardly even any burn really. Like what is the purp is
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your Country52798 Posts
On December 14 2014 11:12 LightningStrike wrote:
The Templar I got a question for you
Earlier in the thread you used a RNG thing to find scum and landed on KSC who turned out to be Mafia. No can you see if you can use another RNG and find the next scum?
Haha, I don't think it works like that.
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Red would have been better I guess
They were asking if ppl wanted red I should have got it.
Anyway what's/ up?
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EPT
