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United Kingdom30775 Posts
+ Show Spoiler +On November 30 2014 04:11 geript wrote:I'd give JAT confirmed town status but iirc correctly he's had huge filters as mafia before. I've started feeling worse and worse about HF. It's not just not lynching scum. Most of his town games as of late have had ridiculous activity. In my experience HF is less active as mafia. And yes, 12 pages on D1 is low activity for him. More importantly: For someone who's relieved and I presume excited to roll town again his filter including length doesn't really show it. Especially when it gets to the lynch. Show nested quote +On November 29 2014 04:49 Holyflare wrote:
I would lynch jat and palmar. Not honestly sure about damd tbh but wouldn't mind the pressure on him for now, wave feeels a bit unfocused but I'm not sure why i feel like that and I haven't really read him properly it just feels that way from watching him interact so kiiind of wary on that
Would lynch sentinel Show nested quote +On November 29 2014 05:32 Holyflare wrote:
Absolutely nobody will follow you jat. Just like nobody will probably follow me. I'm content with both tbh. These are important for two reasons. HF could absolutely push a lynch on JAT or anyone he wanted. As town, HF hammers what he believes to be true. He a conceited asshole who has no doubts whatsoever in his ability (it's part of the reason I enjoy playing with him). But when you look at the lynch it's far more ambivalence. Also note: Show nested quote +On November 29 2014 07:41 Holyflare wrote:yeh it looked towny enough to move to sentinel  ##unvote
##vote sentinel Show nested quote +On November 29 2014 07:44 Holyflare wrote:On November 29 2014 07:41 Holyflare wrote:yeh it looked towny enough to move to sentinel ##unvote
##vote sentinel maybe not actually his filter has more stuff than i remembered ##unvote 3 minutes to read and analyze a filter is quite fast. Seeing as how HF has seemed to be phone posting most if not all the time, that's blazing. More likely though it's just bullshit. For Damdred beaing a great lynch in HF's own words he ends up on a meh GB. Show nested quote +On November 29 2014 07:48 Holyflare wrote:On November 29 2014 07:47 marvellosity wrote:
GB over, say, Sn0, HF? honestly i have no idea and the gb defending damd and damd defending gb is just too weird Like this is really odd. The argument applies equally both ways. HF thinks these things through as town. He's an exceptionally logic based player. But look at the length of his progression. 1. Would lynch JAT, Palmer, Sent; Damdred ambivalent 2. Shit fight with JAT but is content with no one sheeping him on JAT 3. Damdred (some who has been flawless reading Damdred) is a good lynch 4. Will listen to Damdred 5. Damdred towny enough to move to sent 6. Sent towny enough in filter to switch elsewhere 7. Ends on GB HF's previous 100% lock solid read on Damdred changes. JAT a preferred lynch come rely disappears and is never pushed. Mystical speed reading ability. GB move out of ass over suggestions (Marv/me) toward Sn0. A person (sent) who is a preferred lynch hasn't been read whatsoever but can be cleared in 3 minutes. HF is scum. He's not caring about getting a right lynch. He only cares about a not mafia lynch.
Look at what gb said all game about me in obs:
Possible scum, in order of scumminness:
HF
Obi
JAT
Superbia
Marv
Half of the game lololololol
I can't wait.
Geript case on HF is spot on, IMO.
For someone that was so unbelievably wrong on me last game. For someone who knows that everything he is writing in this game is something I'm perfectly capable of doing when town, why is he so so so sure I'm mafia? Way too much unwavering reads this game. I disproved his points multiple times and he still came back WITH THE SAME POINTS. Why is he so sure? Why does he not listen to a word anyone says about me? Why doesn't he even listen to me? Why does he only have 1 scum read?
The answer is because he is mafia. These are easy conclusions to reach for me but apparently gb pushing actual lies goes against my meta read of him being wrong. The answer is he's not being wrong he's pushing actual lies.
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I hope you die at night HF.
Why claim a power role at the beginning of night?
Now if you don't die you'll be up for discussion again tomorrow.
i can understand claiming at the end of night or claiming to be one of the ghosts or a mason, but just saying you're a power role doesn't really do anyhting for me sorry.
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United Kingdom30775 Posts
On December 14 2014 09:15 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 09:09 Fecalfeast wrote:On December 14 2014 09:05 GlowingBear wrote:
I fell asleep because I was feeling sick. What happened? THE PROPHET ARISES KSC was scum HF claimed a role but not any specific one Lololol I loved your photo by the way. You didn't debunked my case, HF, your defense was bullshit, and so is your half-assed claim. Those points still stands. Or you think I should say: "I'm sorry, I forgot Belgium has a magical barrier for mafia"?
TELL ME HOW MY POINTS ARE BULL SHIT. There's literally nothing you can say to counter them. LOADS OF PEOPLE POSTED THE SAME THINGS about how they didn't agree with your points after you asked them to and you didn't respond to a single one of them at all!
What the fucking bull shit.
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United Kingdom30775 Posts
Like literally people have become fucking awful at this game when they say things that they don't back up.
Quote my points and debunk them. I am coming at you in full force.
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United Kingdom30775 Posts
On December 09 2014 09:05 KelsierSC wrote:
I'm liking holyflare now, i didn't like his post about how he wasn't going to post, seemed like a good excuse to lurk. But he has backed it up with actual pressure.his pressure on nb is actually strong and the explanation is good. It also feels like town hf to me.
This guy has also pretty confirmed me as town
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Na hf claiming here is more town unless hes pretty damn sure ritokys shooting him which its too early to say. Like this is the perfect play to do as a vt as well so thats another reason for me to think hes town. There are scenarios were both hf and gb are town here guys. Hf I want you to look at those worlds.
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Like veg/ ritoky dont shoot him obviously he should sort himself out. I expect a hard claim if you live the night tho.
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Stop talking about HFs claim. If he is a role, he will die tonight. Focus on things we need to figure out about, not things we actually play no part in, SL.
I'll do that HF.
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SL, why are you so sure about GB?
And if you say anything more about presents I think I may just ignore you for the rest of the game, lol. At the very least I would consider it ><
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Canada11355 Posts
I was hoping to get a present but I guess that's all over now. Nobody can resist the presents.
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Is there anyone around here actually interested in a discussion? Cause if not I see no need to bear witness to a pissing contest between GB and HF...can just read it all later.
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Haha, I couldn't even read the thread properly and I hammered mafia. Baller.
On December 14 2014 08:33 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 07:49 marvellosity wrote:
Counting something
KelsierSC (8): Alakaslam, liancourt, Tubesock, Tubesock, rsoultin, Tubesock, Fecalfeast, Alakaslam, Trfel, Tubesock, Fecalfeast, Half the Sky, rsoultin, ritoky, Xatalos, ObiwanShinobi
liancourt (0): GlowingBear
GlowingBear (0): Tubesock, rsoultin, Holyflare
Tubesock (2): sicklucker, The_Templar, Fecalfeast, froggynoddy, Xatalos, Half the Sky, LightningStrike
ritoky (0): Holyflare, rsoultin, Lightning Strike, Half the Sky
froggynoddy (0): Oatsmaster
Half the Sky (0): batsnacks
Holyflare (7): GlowingBear, Fecalfeast, batsnacks, Tubesock, Alakaslam, Tubesock, Fecalfeast, The_Templar, sicklucker, Vivax, Fecalfeast, Trfel
Fecalfeast (2): Alakaslam, Vivax, Holyflare, KelsierSC, Vivax, Xatalos, Half the Sky, rsoultin, Alakaslam, Tubesock
Oatsmaster (0): Vivax
Vivax (1): Oatsmaster
sicklucker (0): Tubesock
Trfel (1): rsoultin
Currently KelsierSC is set to be lynched. 11m until deadline. Looking at the votecount I'm starting to think Oats might be a decent target for the shot. He just absolutely wasted his vote... He didn't care enough to even vote for his scumread (Froggy). It would have also been wasted, of course, but it's even worse that he didn't manage to vote his scumread during the day.
Okay, so where's the scum motivation in keeping your vote useless instead of saving your scum partner?
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Here is the real question:
Is Oats ever around at this time? I don't seem to remember him being around ever. I think his schedule doesn't line up with EoD very well...so where his vote is probably means very little if he's not around to change it.
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I don't think it really matters either way since I always look for agenda in someone's votes when scum flips, and I don't see any in Oats' votes.
They're useless, but they're town useless imo.
I might do some wagon analysis later on, we'll see.
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On December 14 2014 09:54 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
I don't think it really matters either way since I always look for agenda in someone's votes when scum flips, and I don't see any in Oats' votes.
They're useless, but they're town useless imo.
I might do some wagon analysis later on, we'll see.
Can you tell me how do you distinguish town useless from mafia useless?
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On December 14 2014 10:03 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 09:54 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
I don't think it really matters either way since I always look for agenda in someone's votes when scum flips, and I don't see any in Oats' votes.
They're useless, but they're town useless imo.
I might do some wagon analysis later on, we'll see. Can you tell me how do you distinguish town useless from mafia useless?
See above: where is the scum motivation in leaving your vote off of both main wagons when scum is one of the wagons?
His vote could have changed the outcome. It didn't; hence, no real agenda behind his useless vote.
If Holyflare is scum, then that might change things based on the fact that he might have implicated himself...but it's still unlikely. scum!Oats can still get a lot of mileage out of some towncred even if both wagons are scum. Oats is not a target for tomorrow based on his vote.
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On December 14 2014 10:08 ObiWanShinobi wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 10:03 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 09:54 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
I don't think it really matters either way since I always look for agenda in someone's votes when scum flips, and I don't see any in Oats' votes.
They're useless, but they're town useless imo.
I might do some wagon analysis later on, we'll see. Can you tell me how do you distinguish town useless from mafia useless? See above: where is the scum motivation in leaving your vote off of both main wagons when scum is one of the wagons? His vote could have changed the outcome. It didn't; hence, no real agenda behind his useless vote. If Holyflare is scum, then that might change things based on the fact that he might have implicated himself...but it's still unlikely. scum!Oats can still get a lot of mileage out of some towncred even if both wagons are scum. Oats is not a target for tomorrow based on his vote.
You're awesome.
But, thinking of it that way, scum probably consolidated on HFs wagon, if HF is town, right?
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The most likely scenario we're dealing with is that there's scum on the Holyflare wagon. We hunt there first, and if Hf gets shot by either mafia or a vigilante and flips town, then we're in an awesome spot information-wise because we know exactly where some scum have hid, and it's likely there's more than one on his wagon.
I just realized there's actually a scenario where Oats could be scum with Holyflare, but that would depend on the mafia team so absolved of thread influence that two mafia were the leading wagons and the whole team is made up of useless players with no thread pull. Just an fyi, Holyflare is anything but useless.
It would be amazing if that were the case, but I don't think it is: out of the people who fit the bill based on their votes, LS is a claimed role as well, so it's unlikely.
All of this is mostly speculation at this point. I need to do more legwork to get my analysis out before I most likely get shot. 
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On December 14 2014 10:17 GlowingBear wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2014 10:08 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On December 14 2014 10:03 GlowingBear wrote:On December 14 2014 09:54 ObiWanShinobi wrote:
I don't think it really matters either way since I always look for agenda in someone's votes when scum flips, and I don't see any in Oats' votes.
They're useless, but they're town useless imo.
I might do some wagon analysis later on, we'll see. Can you tell me how do you distinguish town useless from mafia useless? See above: where is the scum motivation in leaving your vote off of both main wagons when scum is one of the wagons? His vote could have changed the outcome. It didn't; hence, no real agenda behind his useless vote. If Holyflare is scum, then that might change things based on the fact that he might have implicated himself...but it's still unlikely. scum!Oats can still get a lot of mileage out of some towncred even if both wagons are scum. Oats is not a target for tomorrow based on his vote. You're awesome. But, thinking of it that way, scum probably consolidated on HFs wagon, if HF is town, right?
Lol is this a trap of some sort? What prevents scum from being on either wagon? Though if we're looking for odd votes that changed suddenly, Vivax was pushing KSC in Day 1 and Day 2...then suddenly shifts to HF with nothing to say for himself than "GBs case convinced me".
HF turns out to be town, that would be the first spot I'd look. KSC seems like a good alt lynch to divide up town votes, but not so good when everyone jumps on board, no? By the same reasoning, Trfel's position was odd. He makes a good case against KSC, argues against GB's case enough to put KSC as the better lynch, then last minute also switches to HF on a "gut feeling". Though he was also the one asking Vivax why Vivax switched. Which is weird since neither seemed to have great reasons to do so.
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EPT
