EPT[T] Cell (Mini?) Mafia III - Page 2
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On August 28 2014 09:41 Professor Apathy wrote: I just don't think we have to be afraid of a 3-0 stomp here and can play a bit more risky due to the set-up thus leaving stronger players for later. Didn't mafia win the first two games 3-0? I didn't read the whole things but the pictures on the OP suggested that | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
To me, the suggestion of Cell D earlier seems off because there are two unknowns off the bat. Granted, I am pretty sure I know who Not Really Holyflare is now, but I don't think you do. It seems to me that cell would be tougher to read. I'm also a little mixed on your response - As not having Cell B on D1... that explanation feels kinda weird to me. I don't think there's any cell where I know now that I can read all three players. If we can read two, that's enough. So why highlight one player you can't read? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On August 28 2014 10:14 Holyflare wrote: Also lilwade is probably definitely 100% mafia. He's posted in his newbie game quite a few times since we got our pm's and not here at all I think this happened with some other people (foolishness, maybe gumshoe) and at least one flipped town, maybe both. Anyway they were just reaching deadline in the newbie game so I wouldn't chalk it up to much. That said I still think E earlier may be better since Apathy is fairly active and I feel bunnies should be. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I do not disagree with the logic behind the ordering, but you ignore what (I think) is more important - that we are guaranteed to reach at least Day 3, but not Day 5. So let me ask you this - which groups do you think are likely to be the easiest to read? The hardest? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
On August 28 2014 10:42 Holyflare wrote: Tambo's entrance is what i expect a bh entrance to be lol | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I feel like your ordering is strongly based on the idea that marv will lead lynches in a good way / scumhunt well. But, even under that approach isn't it beneficial to put Cell C before D5? That way at least there's some indication as to the authenticity of marv's reads. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
You answered the ones you felt would be hardest to read and I pretty much agree with you. But, which group do you think will be the easiest for town to read? It seems like most people feel it's C. If that's the case, it should be in the first three. Moreover, if there was one group where I felt 100% certain we'd get mafia, I'd probably want that group to third. That way I know: (1) the group is reached, so we get a point for town; and (2) at least one mafia is known and that information can be evaluated in at least the following day; and (3) the reads of two players in the cell are validated -- the only way we get absolute authenticity of a read is if we lynch the mafia (if we lynch a town, we don't know with certainty which of the two survivors was mafia). For D vs. E, I don't have a huge preference... as I said earlier, ninjabunnies seems to be more active early and less active later on, so I'd like E to be earlier in the game. But, I don't care all that much if it's D1 vs D2 - I think bunnies dropped off activity D2 in Detention when you were hosting for us so D1 is slightly better in my opinion. For the DEACB / DEACB platforms, I'll think about it. Not enough impression of A/B yet. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
We need 3 correct lynches to win. It doesn't matter whether those wins are D1, D2, D3 or are D3, D4, D5, or whatever. Thus, the most important thing is to order things such that at least 3 cells have the highest chance of success for lynching mafia. Let's assume for a second that Cell C is the easiest to read (and I can't say for certain that's true but I'll run with it for this example). If the cell didn't have people with high activity/content, I would typically want that cell to be first. Not because we need to start with a win, but because then we would be most likely to get verifiable information earlier. If we lynch correctly D1, then we know one mafia and two town on four days. If we lynch correctly D3, then we only have that information for two days. However, in this case people are saying that the easiest cell to read is also the cell with players that are likely to give high contributions and sure, that has weight too. But, I feel like if there is a cell that is the easiest to read, I absolutely wouldn't vote for it to be last. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Imagine there’s five groups. Three are “hard” and in these groups we have a 40% chance to lynch properly. Two groups are “easy” and in these groups we have an 80% chance to lynch properly. Now, pick between these orders: 1) 40%, 40%, 40%, 80%, 80% 2) 80%, 80%, 40%, 40%, 40% Ordering 2 is better. Better chance to win by odds. And even if we mislynched D1-3, order 2 is better because it reduces the chance of us getting swept 3-0, which means more days of play, which means more posts & information. If a cell is on the easier side, it should somewhere within D1-D3. @Oats: Am I a happy person? Yeah, I think so, plus this has been a pretty great week for me. Question for you: So far a lot of the people in thread seem to want to sheep marv. Is this good? @marv: Do you think our cell should be last? Why? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
all of you guys who are trying to order groups based on how easy or hard they are are missing the point. all that matters is which people we want to have alive at the end. This is provably wrong. @Apathy: I don't live in the future so I can't really predict how reads will change. If you admit to being scum on D2, I'll wish your cell was D2. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I'm on board with the idea that reads get easier over time. But how does that at all support your proposed order of Cell E last? | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
What are your feelings on the ease of Cell B? I'm considering you for a vote (EADCB) but I am mixed as some people are suggesting MysteryMeat is an easy read. | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
I don't have a ton of experience with Wave or HF, and I don't feel MysteryMeat1 is an easy scum pick. To explain, he was mislynched as town in three of his five games in the database and I felt there were decent arguments for his play as scummy in those games. I'm not sure the best way to read him right now, but I'm fine with the idea that I don't have to. Going to vote for Holyflare on the EADCB / AEDCB ticket. I should be back around before deadline. ##Vote: Holyflare | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
In comparing B to C I said this earlier regarding Mysterymeat- On August 29 2014 03:41 Amiko wrote: I don't have a ton of experience with Wave or HF, and I don't feel MysteryMeat1 is an easy scum pick. To explain, he was mislynched as town in three of his five games in the database and I felt there were decent arguments for his play as scummy in those games. I'm not sure the best way to read him right now, but I'm fine with the idea that I don't have to. Given that, why did you put cell B as fourth instead of fifth? I'll put up some thoughts on Cell A in a bit | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
Pregame: On August 08 2014 05:08 Blazinghand wrote: isn't the best way to order groups literally the opposite of this This suggests that Blazinghand thinks the best way to order the groups is with the highest activity first. Ingame: On August 28 2014 10:36 Blazinghand wrote: don't listen to any of this lunkheads. vote me. here's the order I'll use: D E A B C This is because we want put off C and B, which contain high activity players, to the end. . . . This suggests that BH wants to put players with high activity at the end. :| | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
@Anyone else who said Cell C was an easy cell to read - this was at least NotReallyHolyflare and I think also Apathy Why do you feel this is the case? I have never been scum on forum mafia, so I don't see why it would be easy to read me as town/scum. Even if marv is easy to read, do you feel that confident about reading Oats? Give some basis on this | ||
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