EPTNewbie Mini Mafia LVII - Page 8
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Seeyalater
United States217 Posts
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Seeyalater
United States217 Posts
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Seeyalater
United States217 Posts
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Seeyalater
United States217 Posts
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Seeyalater
United States217 Posts
On August 06 2014 06:34 GlowingBear wrote: If you believed his claim, you are voting on me not even knowing why. I doubt you filter dived me before voting on me. I'm starting to believe you're likely to be mafia. I'm confused, are you talking about wade's claim or Pooter's? | ||
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Seeyalater
United States217 Posts
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Seeyalater
United States217 Posts
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Seeyalater
United States217 Posts
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Seeyalater
United States217 Posts
On August 06 2014 07:26 Lord Tolkien wrote: 1) why the fuck would they let him live when he has a 66% chance of checking someone in LYLO, and making the game that much harder for mafia. 2) who else would they shoot exactly; the only one who's "confirmed" town is cya if the check is correct, and there are 3 unconfirmed towns. IF WE LYNCH CYA and he's not mafia (which I currently believe), what then? Argh. I suppose they'll shoot me or Banks if one of us isn't lynched tonight, but eh. It's a significantly weaker play I would think. 3) I wouldn't lynch lilwade immediately. It just puts him as prime lynch candidate. opinions *le gasp* change, To me it just seems like GB is trying his best to make strawman arguments. While he claims to "see" the check on me as possibly being true, his posts scream him trying his hardest to disprove it and try to get a mislynch on me. 1) if neither wade or me die during the night, that's even better for the two of us, because that's 2 townies that would make it to final three, basically leaving the odd man out. So that would be really bad mafia logic. The only person I could see doing that is maybe Pooter thinking he's a good enough player to get me mislynched on final 3. Not to mention, we get one last check from wade, and has a 50/50% to check a mafia, unless there really is a godfather in the game. 2) This would be the worst possible lynch, since once its clear im town, mafia can kill wade during the night, leaving town with no information for final day. Town's best bet that day is to read into who me and wade found the scummiest, but its not a 100% as I said earlier. 3) Lynching wade without first him telling who he checked and what the answer was is probably one of the worst ideas I've heard, since its easy for mafia to try to set him up as fake. The fact that no mafia cc'd cop, it makes me think that again, there's only 1 left(duh), and that they'll try to get really desperate on final day. I still see as the most obvious though, is if we miss today, mafia kills wade and tries to convince the other townie left alive with me that I'm mafia. What sucks about that though, is that I myself won't really have concrete proof on who the last mafia is, and there's a chance I'll fuck it up, but I'll really try. | ||
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Seeyalater
United States217 Posts
On August 06 2014 07:46 lilwade wrote: Afternoon gents, I just caught up reading. I highly doubt I live through the night but if I do I believe I have a plan of action GB, I do not think it is unreasonable for the scenario in a 9 person game to be 1 cop 6 VT 2 goons. I do not think I live past tonight so the number tolkien referring to is the 2/3 scenario that we have if there is one mafia left. Seeya and myself are confirmed town, that means if one mafia is alive we have 2 shots 1 right now and one next day phase to win. Poof, I understand that you feel strongly about cya, but I think everyone here knows you are capable of pocketing town as any role. and your first 3 posts after I claimed did not feel right. Tolkien, I shit you not if you are mafia so help me god, you are like jenny day 1 right now. I'm in the same exact same boat with Tolkien LOL. Honestly, if he was to be the last mafia, he'd win my undying love, because I just can't see that being the case right now. I've also talked quite in depth about how good a player Poof is and how easy it would be for him to bus early on, pocket town, and still win 1v7. As I've said with GB, his posts just reek of desperation. He just outright refuses to believe that I could be town, when there is a good check on me. Even if there was a godfather in the game, its still one of the best pieces of information he has, and he just outright refuses to even ponder said chance. | ||
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Seeyalater
United States217 Posts
On August 06 2014 08:38 Tehpoofter wrote: There is no way that I'm mafia. Just look at my filter. I was the one who went on RNG guy I started the wagon I pushed on it. I even reconsidered at one point where I COULD HAVE SWITCHED TO MEAT PUIDDDING and didn't late in day 1. Like I'll link my posts but there is absolutely zero change I'm mafia in this game. EVER. Remove your vote immediately. Its way more likely seeya is a godfather than I'm mafia. I'm about to go on lunch. So like If this vote isn't moved by then I'll link to the posts that are better than lilwade's check. The thing with you is, when there is no way you are mafia, it actually works against a player of your aptitude, specially in a newbie game. So that argument doesn't really help me much to see you as truly top town. Just my 2 cents on this point. | ||
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Seeyalater
United States217 Posts
On August 06 2014 09:02 GlowingBear wrote: Yeah, your effort really says a lot and yeah, you started that push on 666. That's why I'm considering lynching you but I prefer to lynch seeya. After all you've done I believe seeya is a better lynch but I have enough reasons to vote you if I consider that you decided to bus and pocket every townie. It makes sense when I read your further posts. Poof, read everything I said day3. Really, read it and say if you still believe I'm mafia. I have NO mafia traits, man! Look, we all agree at some point that, without lilwade's check, cya has mafia traits. Lets consolidate our votes on him. He is the only person we agree to lynch second, at least. Townies should agree on a target at this point. Ok real quick, I'll just leave this here, my quick rundown of what would happen with every lynch today, and they end up to be misses, with the info we have so far, and my own alignment(town), 0 particular order- 1. We lynch Tolkien, Both wade and I lose our top towns, but wade gets one more night to get a check if he doesn't die. If he does die, then the last remaining mafia between poof and GB will try to throw scum on me as possible for being "Godfather." This is probably the second worst lynch IMO we could make today, because Tolkien has been the only one to read me correctly this whole game as a VT, and wouldn't just tunnel on me and try to see things clearly, instead of probably letting the other mafia walk all over him. If he doesn't die, then its actually a 50/50% chance if the last other mafia is not a godfather(which seems odd to me at the moment, with how much GB and Poof are trying to argue that there has to be one). Then 50% we win easy in last 3, or 50% wade has to make the right call on who he believes is mafia and hammer them. 2. We lynch myself. Now this one I know its a miss, so that leaves wade, GB, poof, and tolk. Here most likely wade will die in the night, since with me being proven VT, it almost, ALMOST, 100% confirms him as town, and I don't think they want to risk a red check into final 3. So that leaves our 3 unconfirmed to duke it out and see who comes out on top. At this point I think it could be anyone's game, though my biggest fear in THIS particular situation is that GB is actually town, because he could probably be easily mislynched here. If wade were to survive, and gets a redcheck, he just has to convince the last town that he is the actual cop(which should not be hard at all), and should be an easy win. If he gets another green, then things could be dicey because it'll once again fall on him to hammer the right mafia. So this situation is almost as bad as situation 1. 3. We Lynch wade(lol). Probably the worst decision at this point, but lets roll with it. So we lynch him and find out he truly is the cop. That leaves me, tolk, poof, and gb. At this point it's almost impossible in my eyes for mafia to kill me, since who is in my mafia circle right now is trying to push on the whole, godfather thing on me. So most likely, Tolk dies during the night. So this leaves me with the task of convincing the last town, while me myself not sure who it is, that they're dumb for reading me as anything else aside from donkey town. Luckily this is the worst lynch for today so at least we save ourselves this. If Tolk doesn't die in the night, then hopefully if he is town he keeps reading me correctly, but if he's mafia it might not be so bad since he'll have to switch his biggest scum read on to him, which would hopefully help my fellow townie read me correctly. 4. We Lynch GB. This leaves me, wade, tolk, poof. Once again, wade will almost 100% die in the night. If he doesn't, then I'm almost sure I'll be the one to die in the night, since if they leave me alive, they'll have to convince wade that I'm godfather, instead of just trying to tunnel on the other unconfirmed. then once again, there's a 50/50% chance he gets a redcheck on the last mafia, and if the last town isn't and donkey and follows his check, once again it's an easy town win. If he get's a green, then again it won't be as easy, but at least there will be a strong town voice in the end in my book. If he does die, that leaves tolk, me, and poof. At this point, us last two townies have to hopefully hammer correctly, and not let the third tunnel on mislynching me. It could get tricky here since I'm a donkey, but I'll try to do my best to follow mine, and other's intuitions at this point and make the best possible guess on who is mafia. 5. We lynch Poof. This leaves me, wade, tolk, gb. Night sceneries are basically the same as scenario above, so since I'm time constrained(just got off work, typing this on work computer), I'm not going to rewrite it all, but the gist of the night action stays the same. This would again, if left alive, leave wade with a 50/50% on who last mafia is, and all he has to do is convince the last town that he's the cop, which should hopefully not be a hard endeavor. If he dies and I livve, it has me, tolk, and GB. If GB is the last mafia here, then I just have to convince tolk that I'm the last town, and win. If tolk is the last maf, it will be a hard win for town because atm I can't see GB as townier than tolk, but once again I will try my best if it comes down to this. My main reason for writing this all down, is not just for everyone else to see, but also to consider our best path right now. At the moment, options 4 and 5 are where I am leaning, but everyone please let me know where you are, and I'll be back once I'm home and stuffz. | ||
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Seeyalater
United States217 Posts
On August 06 2014 10:16 Tehpoofter wrote: The only way hes mafia is if hes mafia with Seeya. Literally the only way. Because there is no reason for him to claim and come under suspicion the next day for no reason when he could have just pushed with me on seeya (assuming in this case that lilwade is the last one or something) Like what does he possibly gain? Other than suspicion. Agreed, and this is why I have almost no choice but to believe in his claim. It's not, TOO perfect, but that perfect balance of perfect/inperfect. | ||
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Seeyalater
United States217 Posts
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Seeyalater
United States217 Posts
##VOTE GlowingBear DISCLAIMER-Still not set in stone, but its better to vote right now in case the unthinkable happens. | ||
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Seeyalater
United States217 Posts
On August 06 2014 10:48 Tehpoofter wrote: SEeya its not that I think there has to be a godfather... its just that I think you're a scumbag and believe lilwade. Gb probably going to be the lynch today cause its the one that makes most sense to me. I really hope we win today cause if not final 3 is bad. Your list of all scenarios reads like a mafia wanting to give a reason why he is alive in every scenario of lynch tomorrow. Especially with comments like "the last mafia will try to push me as the kill" which is bogus.I know I'm town and I STILL think you have a high chance of flipping red. I could be wrong but I think you being thought of as suspicious doesn't make someone mafia. Going into final 3 everyone should be evaluated as a whole for all interactions. I'm not saying it makes someone suspicious for thinking I'm mafia, but me knowing I'm town, makes me see them as scum. And it might come to a point where I have to argue against that. | ||
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Seeyalater
United States217 Posts
On August 06 2014 11:09 GlowingBear wrote: Oops I said mother fucker but in a kind way, ok? Not meant to be rude. Think you're fine lol, it didn't sound overtly rude. | ||
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Seeyalater
United States217 Posts
On August 06 2014 11:13 GlowingBear wrote: Poof, I will repeat it again: you're doing the same mistake as you did last game. If you're town you KNOW I've been contributing way more than cya. You understand that I've been really busy last couple of days. I still am but I am sacrificing some precious time to win this game. I'm telling you again: read my filter, specially day3, and tell me if I'm not townier than seeyalater. Remember that lilwade could be fake claiming or that seeyalater could be godfather. Believe more on your reads. I have to wonder, why are you only pleading to him and not me? I also have a vote on you beetehdubs, why not try to plead to both of us? The only reason I can think for this, is 1. you're the last mafia and you're trying to plead with Poof who has been riding on me this whole time, and "choose" not to believe wade and/or me at the moment because you know wade was right on the greencheck, or you are just as donkey as I am(even if you do think otherwise) and fail to even grasp that concept. | ||
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Seeyalater
United States217 Posts
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Seeyalater
United States217 Posts
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