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Newbie Mini Mafia LIV

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 24 2014 10:03 GMT
#84
/in
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 26 2014 07:29 GMT
#203
Hello, I am the last to arrive.

Is anybody around?
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 26 2014 07:35 GMT
#204
People are around! Or just were. It took so long to read the thread that new posts appeared while i was reading. Exciting.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 26 2014 07:38 GMT
#205
On March 26 2014 13:03 OnceKing wrote:
Cavalinho, what do you think of the fact that Robik seems to have an awful lot of reads so quickly?


You are going to love me OnceKing. I have reads on almost everybody.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 26 2014 07:50 GMT
#206
Let's start with 3 players who left before the action heated up:

sqrtofneg1
Valenius
Lord Tolkien

Starting with Lord Tolkien. He made a very early 'serious' vote. I think it was serious.

On March 26 2014 08:40 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2014 08:06 OnceKing wrote:
Aha. Sqrt with the real dirt and LT lying. Lynch all liars!
Therefore,

##VOTE Lord Tolkien

technically we're both right.

My renewed OK scum sense is tingling.

#unvote sqrtofneg1
# vote OnceKing


When I read it the first time I thought he was saying his scum sense was OK. Now I realize OK = OnceKing and I guess OnceKing was scum in a previous game? Anyways this failed vote was followed by OnceKing posting his Lynch All Lurkers proposal, and then Lord Tolkien fixed his vote and commented on the proposal...

[B]On March 26 2014 08:50 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Given the past mafia game I play with you guys in, the lurkers were all mafia, I agree with that.

No reason to let them lurk for free.


There's a bit of a disconnect between thinking lynch all lurkers is a good proposal and thinking OnceKing is scum when OnceKing is the one proposing lynch all lurkers. The vote and the proposal are both happening at the same time.

So I have Lord Tolkien at the bottom of this set.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 26 2014 08:15 GMT
#207
OnceKing is likely town.

He's fearless, he's driving discussion, he's challenging people.

People he challenges:
Cavalinho
IAmRobik
Pixalated
Valenius, Cavalinho, LT, RJ, sqrt

The fearless really came out in the "truth or dare" with Cavalinho.

I also think the Lynch all Lurkers proposal comes from a town mindset.

1. It is likely to help the town. I'd guess that lynching from my "no opinion / weak lean / under the radar" set would have better results than lynching my strongest scum read today. How good could my scum read be today? But the under the radar guy today will probably be under the radar tomorrow and it won't get easier to lynch him.

2. It predictably drew negative attention. I think scum would instinctively know that having ideas is trouble.

So who posts a proposal that could help the town but not the poster? Only somebody who thought it was worth it... town.

I don't put a ton of weight on it but that's where I stand on Lynch all Lurkers.

---

OnceKing's relationship with IAmRobik is worth examining. Robik has told us several times that he's the best. Initiating an attack on such a player would be very dangerous for a hypothetical scum OnceKing. What if Robik becomes a leader? What if he actually is the best? What scum wants that kind of attention? But OnceKing has come at Robik which makes OnceKing less likely to be scum. It would require OnceKing to be making an ego play or for them to be scum / scum.

---

On the flip side, I do wish OnceKing offered conclusions of his own about more players. I know how he feels about Robik, but nobody else. So I can't quite lock him in as 100% to be town yet.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 26 2014 08:31 GMT
#208
Next I want to talk about Pixalated

A word about how I've been working:

I made written notes about 'interesting' posts. Who said it and what they said. I should have written my snap reactions but I incorrectly thought I would remember those. At the same time I had a rankings list of how town people are. Pixalated was on the very town side of things.

Now I check my notes to post about him and I wonder how in the world I thought that. A really odd disconnect.

I guess this is his best post:

On March 26 2014 13:08 Pixalated wrote:
I also don't see why you think Val is town just because he asked onceking to clarify his shit. It was a pretty useless question, it's easy to understand what onceking wanted to achieve with that post - create the atmosphere that no one can lurk and has to post.

But instead all he does is make a rather long post asking about potential situations blabla... When I think that it's pretty clear - if we have a solid read we lynch it, if not we lynch a lurker. Seems like he's trying to be helpful without actually being helpful.


He gets the same credit for challenging Robik. Also some credit for having a coherent thought about a read.

But on a second read my takeaway was I agree with a lot of what Pixalated said but so what? He didn't really do anything or take a stand right or wrong. So I give Pixalated a no opinion.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 26 2014 08:37 GMT
#209
IAmRobik...

IAmRobik has told us all he's amazing and he's town. I guess the mafia will tell us with their KP tonight if they agree with both of those. He's playing the game so I won't worry about it further today.

I do wish there was somebody else here to chat with. Even mafia!
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 26 2014 09:28 GMT
#211
Cavalinho...

Cavalinho first pinged me during the OnceKing Lynch all Lurkers discussion. The timeline:

16:40 OnceKing posts LynchAllLurkers
19:18 Cavalinho enters thread
20:15 Robik reacts negatively to LAL
20:16 Cavalinho echos Robik

On March 26 2014 12:16 Cavalinho wrote:
I am also curious about aforementioned shit


The timing is a problem. If Cavalinho had a problem with LAL why didn't he just post it? What was his problem with it anyways? He can't really say:
On March 26 2014 12:44 Cavalinho wrote:
OK is...Off. Like, his post is just...weird. I don't really know how to describe it, but it's like he says a thing about policy and it just kinda comes out of nowhere.

On another topic, why is it that you're asking me specifically? Is it because you already knew that I was weirded out by his post?

So why was it a problem again? Cavalinho is firmly on defense and struggling to say anything about anything:
On March 26 2014 12:54 Cavalinho wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2014 12:49 IAmRobik wrote:
I ask you because sqrt said he's off to bed and it seems that you and I are the only ones left here.

Back to the topic at hand, why didn't you give a read on the other two and deflect onto a pointless question about why I directed the question AT YOU. If I knew where you stood on people, if you expressed those opinions in the thread, I wouldn't have to ask you, now would I?


OK is on. >.>

In all seriousness, I don't really have any thoughts on sqrt and Val other than the fact that they're both null. Sqrt has been goofing off and Val has said stuff but none of it really feels relevant yet.


and here suddenly he knows why it's a problem... because Robik explained it:
On March 26 2014 13:01 Cavalinho wrote:
I'm actually going to agree with Robik. Why would you even bother talking about policy lynching when we're barely one step out of RVS?

Now that I think about it, I'm gonna go check our last game to see if OK did the same weird shit he's doing right now.

When I say struggling... he doesn't have his own thoughts about anything posted. His posts are reactions, deflections, and echoing the thoughts of others.

On March 26 2014 13:12 Cavalinho wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2014 13:08 OnceKing wrote:
I talked about policy to bring us out of RVS. Your turn. What do you think of the fact that Robik seems to have so many reads so quickly?


He has outed two reads. I think that hardly constitutes "many reads."

They sound somewhat stretched, but I don't think I'm ready to commit to interrogating anyone on that line of thinking when we have several players that haven't even posted yet.

This post has a significant logic fail. When fewer players have posted having "many reads" makes less sense than when more players have posted. By this point I think Cavalinho is scum and his plan is to echo Robik. How could he get in trouble saying what Robik says? Note this line implies Robik is town.
On March 26 2014 13:14 Cavalinho wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2014 13:12 OnceKing wrote:
Oh and here's another fun question for you Cav:
Why do you need me to answer your question in order to answer mine? Are we playing truth or dare (without dare)? Are you trying to get out of answering questions until later?


No, I simply felt like you were dodging the question.

OnceKing feels so pure here and Cavalinho is on defense, afraid.
On March 26 2014 15:17 Cavalinho wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 26 2014 13:47 Eden1892 wrote:
Other quick thoughts:

- Pixalated is correct to point out that OK brought the game out of the joke phase and now that I'm reading his last couple posts I'm nodding in agreement. Slight town lean because his thought process is following mine pretty well. Wouldn't clear him based off that but it's fine for a few hours in.
- OnceKing town lean for now, moved the game out of the joke phase, Robik tried pushing an opportunistic lynch on him; I think Robik is scum and busing his teammate so early is stupid.
- Cavalinho arguably looks worse than Robik for just echoing Robik's bad points and promising to go reread an old game then not posting any findings.


And also because I got caught up playing Epicmafia at the same time.

Looking over OK's last accusatory post, it looks quite a bit like what he was doing last game. He's pointing fingers and doing things that are generally pretty pro town. His start was weird, but I don't really have any real reason to think he's mafia right now, especially after all those explanations and actions. Seems townie, getting information and generally being one of those obvious town players.

While we're on that topic, I can say that Robik's townreads tend to come early and often, sometimes on what can be perceived to be weird reasoning. That last game we all played together (speaking specifically to you, OK) he townread me because I OMGUS'd him like 20 minutes in or something. He wound up being such a strong player that he was shot N1. Look back on that and ask yourself if he's acting the same way as he did then, because from what I've seen, he makes his mind up pretty quickly and even had his vote wind up on scum. He seems townie thus far.

Also, I'm going to #Unvote because we're actually playing the game and solving the mystery.


and now he walks back everything. Everybody is town. People are coming at him and he doesn't call them scum.

Well, until he gets voted. Then Eden is scum and it's a battle to the death.

Cavalinho has been tentative, defensive, echoing and then he got a case from eden and a vote and he switched to aggressive defense.

I think Cavalinho is scum.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 26 2014 09:31 GMT
#212
##Vote: Cavalinho
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 26 2014 09:53 GMT
#213
Eden1892 is my strongest town read.

The way he went after Rubik felt sincere and had logic. Then those two talked it out and he reversed himself. Again, it made sense with the posts. For a scum to make a case and then throw it away would be so wasteful. Especially since OnceKing is voting Rubik.

Eden's evolution on Cavalinho was so organic. His post about Cavalinho "arguably even worse" was almost an afterthought when he was on the Rubik warpath but it led him to investigate further.

Eden is willing to take initiative on topics. He has opinions on everybody who has posted enough to be read.

I feel very strongly about Eden being town.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 26 2014 09:56 GMT
#214
Wow that took a long time.

I'm done for tonight.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 27 2014 13:25 GMT
#363
I have read all the posts since I left, although without taking detailed notes this time. I have a mental image of each of you now so hopefully I can read quicker.

I also read day 1 of the game LII.

My snap reactions:

I had trouble following the Lord Tolkien "trap" incident. This is obviously a big deal so I'll look at it in some detail. My gut says Lord Tolkien is town. He has taken the heat in stride and is able to talk about multiple topics in detail simultaneously. He had one throw away line at the end of a post that reads very town to me when he said keep the wagons to {Lord Tolkien, Lord Tolkien's top scum read, Cavalinho - the other big wagon}. People reacting with "why would he do that as mafia, what does that make the other 2?": I think the simpler explanation is he thinks having defined wagons early is important for the town.

In the previously low content set, Valenius appeared and left me with good feelings. I know his big post got some negative reviews.

The other previously low content poster sqrtofneg1 failed to make any impression as I read linearly. That's a bad sign. After I iso I'll see if it's careless reading by me or scummyness by him.


RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 27 2014 13:28 GMT
#364
I found the other game quite helpful. Here's the iso for Cavalinho: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/441178-newbie-mini-mafia-lii?user=Cavalinho

Similar to this game, Cavalinho was a day 1 wagon. In fact he was the day 1 lynch. That's about where the similarities end. Notice how in that game, Cavalinho has confident opinions about lots of topics from the beginning to the end. He has constructive discussions. When the pressure comes he keeps his cool for a long time, but then he eventually snaps and goes hard at his attacker with OMGUS. Except he immediately backs off, clears his attacker, and puts his vote on his preferred wagon and pushes it hard. He announces he's unwilling to change for self-preservation.

Contrast to this game: It's like Cavalinho is only talking to eden. The confidence is gone. His focus has gone from wide to narrow. I think (need to confirm) his reads changed in convenient ways. It's like he's a totally different player!

So yeah, I still think Cavalinho is mafia and Cabalinho is the best lynch today.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 27 2014 13:39 GMT
#365
There were some posts saying... hey that's too many votes on Cavalinho! nobody is defending Cavalinho! ...therefore Cavalinho is probably town.

I strongly, strongly disagree with this logic.

Another contrast with his previous game is Cavalinho had defenders on day 1 of the previous game and has no defenders this game. theDragoon (a mafia) had a strong town read on Cavalinho. When a town is wagoned it's so hard for at least one mafia to resist defending them. They get credibility from being right that they can spend later.

"Don't catch a falling knife"

I want you to imagine you are a mafia this game and Cavalinho is your partner. Eden and Roland are gunning for Cavalinho. They make substantial cases. They have lots of people calling them town. Cavalinho has a good chance of being lynched. You are going to defend Cavalinho? Really? Like say you think his posts make him town? I don't believe that*.

If you are mafia and Cavalinho is your partner you can't defend him. Certainly not when he was the only wagon.

* Not that it's physically impossible for that to happen, just that it's very improbable and the assumption of the posts I'm arguing against is that mafia would most likely defend their partner when he's a runaway day 1 wagon.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 27 2014 13:41 GMT
#366
I'm out for a bit. When I return after my pending items hopefully I'll be able to interact with some of y'all.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 27 2014 16:38 GMT
#391
I think sqrtofneg1 is mafia.

His conversation with himself at the start of the game showed him to be a high volume, in the moment player. One who would create reactions and interact a lot. That style of town play is more writing than reading and doesn't take a lot of time.

But the promise hasn't been met. His posting since has been sporadic. He has one long post and otherwise doesn't know what to say.



RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 27 2014 16:40 GMT
#394
On March 28 2014 01:37 Cavalinho wrote:
I'm okay with either him or Roland, because Roland jumped on what could be considered a "safe" wagon and isn't letting up despite all evidence to the contrary.


If you think I'm mafia, and you want people to vote for me, nothing is more convincing than putting your own vote on me.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 27 2014 16:44 GMT
#398
I think Lord Tolkien is town.

I've read the trap section again and I understand it now. I also finished reading the previous game. There he had a post during night 3 that seemed like he was trying to trap the wolves with WIFOM and things he didn't believe. It worked, they killed him.

The point of that is it shows he wants to make plays like traps while town, so it's not automatically incriminating.

Then I'm buying his defense. Call it tone, I think he is town.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 27 2014 17:00 GMT
#410
Let's look at Cavalinho then and now. Then (game LII): he had his scumread and it was more important than his own survival.

On February 18 2014 08:17 Cavalinho wrote:
For the record,

##unvote Amiko
##vote N1k0


This is my actual scumread right now. Amiko is trying to make good posts, but I think he's an idiot and he's barking up the wrong tree.


On February 18 2014 08:42 Cavalinho wrote:
And I'm not changing my vote. I'm staying on N1k0 until the end of today.


On February 18 2014 08:43 Cavalinho wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 18 2014 08:42 Lord Tolkien wrote:
On February 18 2014 08:01 Cavalinho wrote:
Except I'm actively pressuring you you stupid asshole.

In case you haven't noticed, I'm actually trying very hard to focus on other things. But you ignore the shit that I've said before in regards to what OnceKing said. You can go ahead and look for it, because I'm not wasting my time explaining anything to you anymore. You are literally turning this into "you or me," and if we're both town, then everyone else is just sitting and watching while you try to reason something out of nothing.

I see absolutely no reason to let you live. You deliberately misread everything and your logic makes no sense. You're either shit town or mafia trying to save yourself.

But it's not like it actually matters what I'm saying here. I could say "smelly dick poop butt" and you would still think I'm mafia.

Two things: one, most of your posts have mostly been expressing frustration that Amiko's focusing on you. You've had "productive posts", but they're all focused on defending yourself and trying thus far to condemn Amiko.

Even when I point at both Lord Tolkein and IAmRobik

First, there was no pointing at me previously,

The only reference to me previously was:
His logic is unsound and it makes no sense whatsoever. What's actually kind of funny was that I was rethinking my stance after what you [, Lord Tolkien] posted earlier, but he keeps trying to push back on me which, in turn, makes me go after him.

After my first two posts on Amiko and a side-tracked conversation with Valernius about possible roles.

And the push onto IAmRobik at the time, with the posts we had at hand, is very questionable, which I've already raised.


This also raises the question why you aren't voting me after switching from Amiko.


Because we've had that solid conversation earlier about trying to plan around all of the blatant OMGUSing going on. This is a good sign.

I'm going to say it again: all of the people involved in the major discussions right now are probably town, and there are several players sitting back and doing nothing.


Now. It's all about survival. He actually gives his top scumread in the second post. Can you find it? Look how different that is. His focus, his priority is begging for an unvote.

On March 28 2014 00:53 Cavalinho wrote:
Okay, I'm probably not going to be around at deadline. Can we possibly coalesce on someone soon that preferably isn't me?

Like...I don't see what makes me a "caught mafia." At all.


On March 28 2014 01:37 Cavalinho wrote:
I think out of the four people that I'm concerned about right now, (You, Val, Roland, LT) Tolkein would be the one I would be concerned with voting off the most. I'm okay with either him or Roland, because Roland jumped on what could be considered a "safe" wagon and isn't letting up despite all evidence to the contrary.

Though for the record, you strike me as town for now. So I guess disregard the fact that I'm concerned with you.

(Also, yes, Eden is a pain in the ass when he tunnels. I can absolutely see that. Also, unvote me pls kthx.)


What evidence to the contrary?

Challenge: Would anybody like to say they think Cavalinho is town based on his posts in this game. Not based on your read of another player, wagon dynamics, or anything else. Just his posts.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 27 2014 17:03 GMT
#411
On March 28 2014 01:52 sqrtofneg1 wrote:That's strange. I consider people who don't think I'm scum pretty scummy right now.


If you're town could you uh help me see that some time before I lynch you? thx
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 27 2014 18:11 GMT
#443
On March 27 2014 04:46 Valenius wrote:

I'll get onto Eden/Roland in a bit, but posting this for now.

Quick totem pole. top doesn't mean i think he's confirmed scum, just highest on my list as it stands.

Sqrt
Cavalinho
Pixelated

Lord Tolkien

OnceKing
Robik

Idk where roland / eden fit into that yet.


By the time Valenius wrote this everybody had cleared eden. I think if he was scum making up reads he'd just join the party calling eden town. But if he's town and hasn't done the iso yet he can't. I'm not feeling a Valenius vote today.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 27 2014 21:20 GMT
#494
Posting to say I'm refreshing from work and I'm aware of current events.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 27 2014 21:34 GMT
#499
I am nervous about who won't be around and the possibility of no accountability vote switches in the name of not lynching the claim.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 19:16 GMT
#631
It did not take long to catch up.

##Vote: IAmRobik
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 19:17 GMT
#632
From today's reading I can say never lynch Lord Tolkien. Not that it matters, I predict he will be the night kill.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 19:24 GMT
#633
I was buying eden's case on sqrt as I read along. It matched my memory. Today though sqrtofneg1 hit me with a couple of curve balls:

1. Coming after me before it was popular.
2. the roleblock claim.

I believe they make Robik the better vote now.

You'll recall my day 1 take on Robik: He claims to be the best and he claims to be town. Now the mafia have told us they disagree.

Read his posts in iso, ask yourself: what is his agenda here?

Does he have any reads he wants impressed on others for after he's gone? (no, contrast with the work Eden did at night)

This is an important question. What is he trying to accomplish.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 19:27 GMT
#635
Also my theory for nks is real simple: kill those on the right track. eden was my biggest fan, a horrible kill for me to make. It was however a great kill for Robik and sqrt.
You can call it WIFOM, and your wrong at least about me. I believe it's much easier to argue with a corpse than with a live player who can vote and cause trouble.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 19:29 GMT
#636
On March 31 2014 04:26 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Any reason you're posting now?


Why on earth wouldn't I post? Abandoning the game would be very poor form.

I think you're town. What's more I think if you talk to me you'll figure out that I'm town. Then we can lynch somebody else. Just from that start we're 2/5 to hit which is much better than the current 0% chance to hit.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 19:33 GMT
#638
To answer more directly, I was very steamed by the lynch result. Also by Robik's posts right at the deadline. So I did other things until I calmed down. I felt pretty responsible for the result and likely to fight hard and say dumb stuff. I didn't think that would be good for anybody.

I checked in to see the night kill result, processed that.

I'm pretty disappointed with the activity level, it took no time to catch up.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 19:35 GMT
#641
On March 31 2014 04:31 Lord Tolkien wrote:
You haven't posted shit in 70 hours. That's quite some time, then you come backbwhen we form a wagon in you.

Scuse me but this takes some explanation.


and it's still 3 hours til lynch which seems like plenty of time. The wagon is obviously quite independent of my return. I'm either playing or I'm not.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 19:36 GMT
#643
On March 31 2014 04:34 Valenius wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 31 2014 04:33 RolandJarvis wrote:
To answer more directly, I was very steamed by the lynch result. Also by Robik's posts right at the deadline. So I did other things until I calmed down. I felt pretty responsible for the result and likely to fight hard and say dumb stuff. I didn't think that would be good for anybody.

I checked in to see the night kill result, processed that.

I'm pretty disappointed with the activity level, it took no time to catch up.


LOL

go fuck yourself.


excellent, you can be town too! now we're playing.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 19:40 GMT
#645
Some more on why Robik is mafia...

He saw the claim. He didn't really try to discourage voting Cav, he just said he wouldn't and he refused to say if he believed it.

He said he was driving and would return at :45

Then he had that super long rant at the very last minute. When it could not change the outcome, but could make him look good.

I think if he was town that rant would have been the first thing and he would have pushed people off of cav because he thinks it's the right thing to do.

Look at his vote today... not voting. Again he's avoiding responsibility. He's lurking. If I wasn't going after him he'd show up in a bit and half push something else that won't go.

RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 19:43 GMT
#646
On March 31 2014 04:40 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 31 2014 04:35 RolandJarvis wrote:
On March 31 2014 04:31 Lord Tolkien wrote:
You haven't posted shit in 70 hours. That's quite some time, then you come backbwhen we form a wagon in you.

Scuse me but this takes some explanation.


and it's still 3 hours til lynch which seems like plenty of time. The wagon is obviously quite independent of my return. I'm either playing or I'm not.

Then you'd be wrong. You had 48 hours to post something telling us you're alive AFYER THE NIGHTKILL and 70 hours after the lynch. If you are town fk you.

3 hours means shit and you know it.


No, I actually don't know that.

How many players will I have more posts than for this game day when it's done?

I don't have a time machine. I was told players need to participate each day/night cycle. I'm putting in 3 hours here. If that's not enough then the signup should be more explicit about the requirements.

Feel free to talk about any other topic, like say the content of my posts or somebody else's. Or just keep yelling at me if that makes you feel better I guess. It won't make me scum though.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 19:47 GMT
#648
On March 29 2014 06:10 Eden1892 wrote:
Everyone should post reads here before you get nightkilled and leave us with nothing.

For me it's...

Town across all scenarios: Roland Jarvis, Eden1892, Lord Tolkien, Cavalinho (rip)
Scum: sqrtofneg1

- Valenius is town if sqrtofneg1 is mafia, null-to-slight-scum read if sqrtofneg1 is town
- OnceKing is probably town, but could still plausibly be sqrt's partner; likelihood appears to be diminishing though
- Robik and Pixalated aren't on the same team; Pixalated makes the most sense as sqrt's partner, Robik is an outside possibility there; more likely to me that Pixalated is mafia rather than Robik


This is the guy the mafia killed. There's a very good reason he's dead and you & I aren't... it's because he was a lot more right than you or I.

It's unfortunate that I don't have much to add to them but that goes with having no posts day 2. I do think Valenius is town the way he came at me.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 19:50 GMT
#649

Not Voting (3) - IAmRobik, Pixalated, RolandJarvis


Not voting this late in the day is not a good look. Combine that with eden being suspicious of him and I'm going to give Pixalated a second look.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 19:55 GMT
#650
ok, I read Pixalated in iso and it was bad bad bad. He hasn't had an idea of his own all game, just said that other people have decent ideas.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 19:59 GMT
#651
I have some confidence that the three evils are in

Pixalated IAmRobik sqrtofneg1

Now we've got 3 lynches so all we need to do is not lynch me and it will be good times.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 20:02 GMT
#655
A message for any non-scum who might read this post:

Wanting me to be scum because you don't like the interval between my posts won't make me scum. Voting me might feel good now. It won't feel that great after the reveal.

Take a minute and read my iso. Ask yourself: what's RJ's agenda?
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 20:08 GMT
#659
On March 31 2014 05:00 OnceKing wrote:
Why did you take so long to come back? You can't blame us for having no posts on day 2 when you are part of the problem by not posting at all. Who is worse, Robik or Pixalated?


I don't know. I mean I could tell you a story for each but the fact is I trust my town reads and my scum reads from the rest are random chance.

I want Robik to be scum, that makes me nervous. So Pixalated is probably the better vote.

If we do lynch Pixalated today I could see me & Robik having a fun thunderdome tomorrow.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 20:13 GMT
#664
On March 31 2014 05:04 OnceKing wrote:
Would you like to answer ANY of my questions?

I think I've answered all of them.
On March 31 2014 05:04 Valenius wrote:
I really really dislike you, for pretty much everything you've posted since coming back.

So do you think I'm scum? Maybe uncertain but think I deserve to die regardless?
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 20:17 GMT
#670
On March 31 2014 05:14 IAmRobik wrote:
Yo ive been out for friends bdays. Im on my phone. Pixalated still mafia. LT prolly mafia for his late jump and the derailment of his wagon was weird. Havent read anything but the first 2-5 posts of the day

##vote pixalated


I can't wait for you to catch up.

##unvote: IAmRobik
##vote: Pixalated
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 20:32 GMT
#674
On March 31 2014 05:21 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 31 2014 05:17 OnceKing wrote:
Valenius, LT - who are your other mafia suspects?

Still uncomfortable about Robik and still don't like sqrt and RJ but this Day 2 has been a disaster postingwise so I'm trying to get activity up going forward.

This flip should also tell us something.


I was just looking at sqrt and... I think I can make a case that he's town. Which means I'm down to two suspects which means I'm almost certainly clearing somebody incorrectly.

The case would be: sqrt just says things. No qualifiers, just what he thinks. If he was doing that high volume it would be easy to be sure. I was predisposed to find him scummy from day 1 and eden's posts and I didn't so hmmmm.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 20:44 GMT
#676
Hello, Mr. i.

I keep changing my mind about you. What do you think the mafia team mood is like today?
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 20:59 GMT
#677
I feel like eden is reading along shouting at the screen we should be lynching sqrtofneg1.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 21:08 GMT
#679
##unvote: Pixalated
##vote: sqrtofneg1

Come back and talk Mr. i.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 21:16 GMT
#681
On March 31 2014 06:08 Valenius wrote:
No.


He just pops in with a vote on the top wagon and not a word about anything else.

Exactly the same as Robik.

I think it's a good time to talk.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 21:26 GMT
#683
I didn't think my vote would get sqrt lynched. There appears to be a lot of inertia and not a lot of people around so I think it would take an act of congress to keep pix from being lynched now.

I hoped seeing his name in bold like that might encourage sqrt to make another post.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 21:36 GMT
#684
Once again, never ever lynch Valenius or Lord Tolkien. I'm going to spam that until it becomes consensus.

Today I forgot why I had OnceKing cleared so he is on notice that there will be further investigation.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 21:54 GMT
#685
All right, good talk. Now let's get a reveal. My heart is beating a little quicker.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 22:14 GMT
#693
The good news is the mafia are running out of mislynch candidates. All I have to do is pick right and not get lynched.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 22:34 GMT
#698
On March 31 2014 07:27 sqrtofneg1 wrote:
Okay, time to start analyzing.
This next night kill is crucial for mafia.
Who could it be? Who does it make sense for mafia to kill?
Coming into D2, I thought that the next obvious choice is Robik. But the problem is, he hasn't posted a whole lot lately.
I'm inclined to believe the birthday party excuse for Robik because he's in another game, and he hasn't posted lately on that game either.
Anyways, back to the night kill.
Who do you think looks the most like the doctor currently? Who does the mafia think is the doctor? Will they even go for the doctor? Or will they go for the top contributing town?


this. Lord Tolkien is the kill. They won't kill Robik because he's mafia. Hope this helps.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 30 2014 22:46 GMT
#702
The pivotal player for me is OnceKing. If I can be sure about him then I can go to war with confidence. That will be my focus when I read again tomorrow. Alternately sqrt could convince me he's town. I doubt anything will change my mind about Robik. If he's town then the game is already over because I am town and I'm voting him sooner or later.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 31 2014 12:27 GMT
#709
Some musings about anger: fake and real.

Night 1 Robik was quite angry with eden. Eden was not having it and fired back hard. Robik quickly backed down.

Yesterday Tolkien and Valenius were quite angry with me for my extended non-posting. My replies were pretty passive. Their anger persisted.

This is why I keep saying never lynch Tolkien and Valenius. Their anger was real. I could feel the hate coming from Valenius. Scum has no reason to be really angry with me. Me not posting makes it easier for them to not post. Sure they might fake it but this was real. Now if I had played differently and fired back hard at Tolkien and Valenius saying they were very wrong and I was right, do you think they back down quickly? Of course not. That's not how real anger works.

But that is what Robik did. This is why I think his anger was faked, calculated to make him look good. But he couldn't win a prolonged battle with eden so he ended the fight. I was prepared to read hundreds of posts of recriminations but actually it was over almost as soon as it started. It doesn't make sense. Town can't calm down that fast from being that angry about something that important. Emotions don't work like that. Scum can though because it's fake.

cliffs: Tolkien, Valenius good. Robik evil.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 31 2014 12:30 GMT
#710
It still amazes me that neither Robik nor sqrt tried to interact with me at all when they returned yesterday. I was the lead wagon much of the day and that goes away and they have absolutely nothing to say about it. I was gunning for Robik and he didn't even acknowledge that. I talked about sqrt on both sides, he ignored it. But he was around after the reveal? I don't get it.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 31 2014 15:18 GMT
#713
Yeah that's why they call them excuses.

It's night 2. You've pushed nobody. You've not cared who gets lynched. You've made no effort to clear anybody. Yes you have posts they say things but you aren't trying to persuade anybody, you aren't trying to get your way.

This is a complete mismatch with an experienced player who is going to show everybody how to play. If you were town you'd be making reads on everybody and selling them. You'd challenge people who disagree with you. There'd be no doubt about your reads, everybody would KNOW. You'd be terrified about being nk'd and want to make a post solving the game before you died thinking we'd all follow it.

Nobody was surprised you didn't die n1. Nobody is going to be surprised when you don't die tonight.

You are scum. Now please get lynched.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 31 2014 15:21 GMT
#714
To answer your point, it's not the showing up drunk at EOD that's a problem. It's that you made it all the way to EOD without having voted. You just waited until the lynch was decided and made a safe vote. Again. Just like day 1.

You see yourself as a leader. This is not the behavior of a town leader and that only leaves one team for ya.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 31 2014 17:30 GMT
#716
The poor scum need more town posting reads so they know which town it's safe to go after for a mislynch. Help them out guys!
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
March 31 2014 18:12 GMT
#717
On April 01 2014 00:26 IAmRobik wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 01 2014 00:21 RolandJarvis wrote:
To answer your point, it's not the showing up drunk at EOD that's a problem. It's that you made it all the way to EOD without having voted. You just waited until the lynch was decided and made a safe vote. Again. Just like day 1.

You see yourself as a leader. This is not the behavior of a town leader and that only leaves one team for ya.

1) you're being a hypocrite cause you didn't vote until EOD either
2) I wasn't around until EOD ... hell. I wasn't even around AT EOD. I was in the thread for less than 5 minutes. I was on my phone. I wasn't reading anything. I just voted who I wanted to vote. I didn't even know what the wagons were and I didn't even stick around to see who was lynched.


1) Nope. For one I read the thread (took no time) and gave opinions on most players while the lynch was actually being decided. More importantly though, I haven't put myself out there as an expert and a leader. I am just a guy trying out mafia at team liquid. If I don't like it I just disappear. I could not have less ego invested in this game. You care about your rep here. But you don't care who gets lynched. That is the contradiction that gives you away.

2) You are making my case for me. You had no idea who was being lynched day 2 and you didn't care. You have no responsibility for anything that happened. I understand and agree with you. We disagree about what that means.

At some point you are going to have to take a stand on players, starting with me. Which way will you go?
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
April 02 2014 22:51 GMT
#876
gg scum team.

I didn't read day 3 but I thought everybody town played fine or better except for the day 2 lynch failing to vote and forcing our hand.

I was pretty surprised I died. I thought I was a solid mislynch possibility with no town clearing me.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
April 02 2014 22:52 GMT
#877
OnceKing I thought you were real good. You had lots of facts on your side from my POV. I was going to have to clear every other town to catch you.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
April 02 2014 23:27 GMT
#896
On April 03 2014 08:17 sqrtofneg1 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 03 2014 07:51 RolandJarvis wrote:
I didn't read day 3 but I thought everybody town played fine or better

Except me.


No I definitely don't exclude you. I think you did enough to clear yourself. I'm not saying you made it easy, no.

If you read some of my second half of the game you'll see I am trying to figure you out. Unfortunately my musings were interrupted.

If I did get there it would be because you were just saying what you thought, and saying it with conviction. It didn't match what anybody else was saying. It didn't match what anybody wanted to hear. This is good in my book.
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
April 02 2014 23:47 GMT
#913
At the risk of the world revolving around me, I'm going to talk about my NK for a second.

I believe at the time of my death 0 town were clearing me, 1 was ready to murder me through the screen, 1 had upgraded me to mere dislike, and 1 didn't have much to say about me. Then I died. Who besides me was surprised by that?

What was the state of my reads? Well, I had LT and Valenius as lock clear. I had robik as lock scum. I said I would thunderdome him. I made cases. I said "if you (robik) are town the game is already over because I'm never not voting you". Consider the implications of that. If scum believe me (and why wouldn't they?), and if robik is town, all they have to do is kill somebody who isn't me or robik and they have a guaranteed victory. That's pretty attractive. There's no wifom there where they did it to setup robik, all they need is my vote on a town and they can snipe a win.

I take a very straightforward view of night kills, both making them and interpreting them. When I'm scum I kill the threats. I believe it's much better to argue with a corpse who can't vote than to have a live player harassing me. When I'm town and when there's a surprise night kill, I want to know the reason. Killing a player who is universally cleared might mean nothing. Killing a player who is on the suspect list --- I want to know what he was thinking. The nk is validating his reads.



RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
April 02 2014 23:54 GMT
#915
The game felt a bit backwards to me in one respect. Day 1 was very dense. Lots of long, thoughtful posts. As the game went on, the posts got shorter and less reflective.

I think it's better to have a day 1 style with more pooh flinging monkeys. Then as the game goes on transition to longer, more reflective posts.

Interactions are hard to do well as scum. Lots of early interactions (by pooh flinging monkeys I mean quick attacks with little reason to them) early lays a nice foundation for later study.

But you can't play the whole game that way. In the end you got to study the thread.

I'm not sure though. It could be cultural differences and maybe I'm just biased by my past experience.

/ramble
RolandJarvis
Profile Joined March 2014
65 Posts
April 03 2014 00:11 GMT
#920
If the doc can save the same person each night why doesn't the cop insta claim on day 1 and the poor mafia have to hope to luckbox the doc?
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