EPTEspecialy Holy for teaching me replacing out for epicness
[S] Shadowed Mini Mafia: The Reboot - Page 5
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
sidesprang
Norway1033 Posts
Especialy Holy for teaching me replacing out for epicness | ||
|
sidesprang
Norway1033 Posts
| ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On February 06 2014 09:11 Toadesstern wrote: Everytime you say that I remember that game were you fakeclaimed Doctor as a VT despite town having a real doctor and told everyone that noone needs to worry about Syllo (I think it was Syllo?) because you're going to protect him and the real Doctor ended up protecting someone else because of that. Obviously Syllo (or whoever it was, it was a strong VET though) died that night. Was that the legendary annul game? I mean you're not that bad... but you're weird and always have these weird, very complex plans that in 99% of the cases will fail horribly. you know when Toad is criticising you for doing crazy things, then something's gone horribly wrong somewhere | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On February 06 2014 19:53 marvellosity wrote: you know when Toad is criticising you for doing crazy things, then something's gone horribly wrong somewhere Don't mention Arkham or he'll come right back at me | ||
|
suki
Canada1159 Posts
On February 06 2014 16:58 sidesprang wrote: And BTW, I'm back! Yay  You have time to participate now? | ||
|
Alakaslam
United States17323 Posts
| ||
|
Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On February 06 2014 19:53 marvellosity wrote: you know when Toad is criticising you for doing crazy things, then something's gone horribly wrong somewhere Toad is just misremembering it, I wasn't a VT that game | ||
|
sidesprang
Norway1033 Posts
Well yeah, will only be busy next wedensday if I live that long. rest should be fine. | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On February 07 2014 03:47 Blazinghand wrote: Toad is just misremembering it, I wasn't a VT that game I know you weren't a doc though and you weren't mafia either! | ||
|
Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On February 07 2014 04:08 Toadesstern wrote: I know you weren't a doc though and you weren't mafia either! which game was this? | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
 I'm pretty sure it happened before Arkham city and the only 3 games in the database before that according to my spoiler are: TL Mafia L Town Veteran Survived Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VI Town Detective Killed Night 2 TL Mafia XLVIII Mafia Medic Lynched Day 9 it wasn't any of those 3 games. Maybe something missing? I think I was mafia myself because I remember laughing about it and the third one in that list was my first game ever as mafia outside newbie games. Probably something like 2 or 3 years old, it was right when I started playing... maybe even in a newbie? | ||
|
jaybrundage
United States3921 Posts
On February 06 2014 16:58 sidesprang wrote: And BTW, I'm back! I'm expecting alot from you | ||
|
OdinOfPergo
United States840 Posts
On February 06 2014 09:48 Aquanim wrote: wait my coach was holyflare? news to me EDIT: I'm fine to /out and /replace again in favour of OdinOfPergo, if he'd like a starting slot. You're too kind! It's your slot though, so I'll leave it for you to decide. If you would rather play then go for it | ||
|
Balla24
2322 Posts
| ||
|
Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
| ||
|
Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
Day 1 Raynpelikoneet and Artanis[Xp] were playing some bw games. All was good in the world. Suddenly, Toadesstern dropped in and proclaimed "SC2 is better!" 4 years later, the Teamliquid forums have still not recovered. The factions are once again fighting today to determine who is right. A battle that must be settled, at any cost. It is now Day 1! You have until Saturday, Feb 08 9:59pm GMT (GMT+00:00) to vote for a lynch. Voting is mandatory, and the system is a plurality lynch. I would like to once again stress the usage of your coaches. They're here for you for a reason, and they can help you improve! Please do interact with them as much as possible. They have not been informed of your alignment, and you may choose to tell them or choose to not tell them. It's up to you. If you would like to receive the obs QT, please send me a PM. | ||
|
sidesprang
Norway1033 Posts
| ||
|
Balla24
2322 Posts
Here's what I think is going on this game. Using your last 3 games, I have calculated everybody on the playerlist's chances of rolling mafia this game using basic math. I did not use games that you replaced into, as there is a possibility of it being likelier to replace into one alignment rather than the other, nor did I use ongoing games unless you have already flipped and thus everybody knows your alignment already and could not affect the game. I did use information from the last game, since it totally counts, unless you replaced into the game. Let's start: For each player, I found their last 3 games, and in each of those games I calculated the probability for each alignment and wrote down your alignment in that game. The probably incorrect mathematical theory is within the spoiler below: + Show Spoiler [The Theory] + In this game, every player has a 72% chance to roll town and a 28% chance to roll mafia. To calculate the chances of rolling mafia in this game if you have rolled town 3 times out of 3: P(town% game 1) * P(town% game 2) * P(town% game3) *P(mafia) = P(of a TTTM situation) To calculate the chances of rolling mafia in this game if you have rolled town 2 times out of 3: P(town% game 1) * P(town% game 2) * P(mafia% game1) * P(mafia) = P(of a TTMM situation) To calculate the chances of rolling mafia in this game if you have rolled town 1 times out of 3: P(town%game1) * P(mafia% game1) * P(mafia% game2) * P(mafia) = P(of a TMMM situation) And so on and so forth. If you have rolled mafia at ALL then the chances of any situation goes down significantly. + Show Spoiler + Note: that these are all independent events and in reality your chances of rolling mafia are completely independent of your previous games, therefore this is all bullshit anyways, but its fun! Also, fuck you jonny!!! Based on that theory: + Show Spoiler + Aquanim: T(.75) * T(.75) * T(.8) * M(.28) * 100% = 12.6% of rolling mafia Alakaslam: T(.8) * T(.76) * T(.72) * M(.28) * 100% = 12.2% chance to roll mafia Sidesprang: T(.76) * M(.28) * T(.76) * M(.28) * 100% = 4.52% chance to roll mafia LoneMeow: T(.72) * M(.25) * T(.8) * M(.28) * 100% = 4.03% chance to roll mafia Jaybrundage: T(.72) * T(.76) * M(.25) * M(.28) * 100% = 3.83% chance to roll mafia Hopeless: M(.28) * T(.75)* T(.76) * M(.28) * 100% = 4.46% chance to roll mafia Oatsmaster: T(.72) * T(.76) * M(.23) * M(.28) * 100% = 3.52% chance to roll mafia JonnyLaw: T(.76) * T(.76) * T(.72) * M(.28) * 100% = 11.64% chance to roll mafia Suki: T(.72) * T(.76) * M(.23) * M(.28) * 100% = 3.52% chance to roll mafia Koshi: M(.27) * T(.8) * M(.23) * M(.28) * 100% = 1.39% chance to roll mafia Me: T(.72) * M(.23) * M(.22) * M(.28) * 100% = 1.02% chance to roll mafia The conclusions: The town Koshi and I are mathematically literally and figuratively confirmed town. You cannot get more confirmed town than this except with mod-confirmation, regardless of how incredibly anti-town this whole thing is. Koshi with the 1.39% chance to roll mafia. Me with the 1.02% chance to roll mafia. Fight me on this, I dare you! Questionable players Oats Suki Jaybrundage LoneMeow Hopeless Sidesprang This is roughly in order of most to least town. None of you had a chance to post yet, so you all have had weak appearances. I'm okay with them right now since they clearly don't have a very high chance to roll mafia, and it is also obvious that others are probably way more mafia so they are likely to be town. Mafia Aquanim Alakaslam Jonnylaw I will go into a little more detail here: Actually I can't cause there's nothing to go into detail about With 12.6%, 12.2% and 11.64% chance to roll mafia respectively. These guys are PROBABLY mafia. This game is solved. QED. ##Vote Aquanim + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + Disclaimer: huehueuhehuehuehueuheuheuhuhe this is all so useless because in reality everybody who has rolled less times as mafia also has a much higher chance to roll town and basically all I did was prove that every game was independent from each other huehuehueuheuheuheuhehuehueuhe... like jonny has a 39% chance to roll town town town town whereas I have a a 3% chance to roll town mafia mafia town and this is all for the lulz huehuehueuheuhehueuheuheuh and also i probably should have used some time of conditional probability formulas like bayern's theorem but i was too lazy to re-learn that so i just made stuff up   | ||
|
sidesprang
Norway1033 Posts
| ||
|
sidesprang
Norway1033 Posts
| ||
| ||
