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On February 27 2014 08:15 theDragoon wrote:
I have to go out for about 2 hours so I'll be available for a couple of hours before the deadline. Whoever is the town player out of you two, please make the right choice and vote for the real mafia. If there's a vote for me then it's very likely that we will lose and the one to vote me first is the real mafia. I've played for the town right from the start of the game and it's really a surprise for me to last this long since several players have read me as town throughout various points in the game. I think the only reason why I'm alive and didn't get night killed was because I was the only vote on Valenius, and mafia could try to use that against me. I'm not exactly a strong player but I really tried to put in the effort to help town. I will be really disappointed to see us lose this game, and if we lose then we totally deserve it since the mafia will have outplayed us.
I really hope that when I get back, the town player left over doesn't make the mistake of voting for me. Please consider what each player has done throughout the game to make your decision. I've tried looking through everything during day 4 trying to find the right answer and I don't even know if I succeeded. I'll be back in time to answer any questions. See you guys later!
theDragoon when you get back please start posting responses raised above. Valenius is going to bed so I am not going to get anything more from him until the vote and the game will basically hinge on my responses to what you raise.
It is very important that you give me as much information as possible.
Right now I feel that you have done the most scummy stuff today - you seem to ignore some posts, provide only short answers to things. In addition to the above, I want you to justify your play today. In addition to the earlier points, here's a few more to work with:
Why did you vote earlier when you will be back later in the day?
Why did you vote while recognizing there were new posts you didn't read?
You raised some points in your post for why you felt I was mafia and I posted some responses. Why didn't you use time today to respond to those and decide if you still felt I was mafia?
I guess if Valenius is asleep and you are heading out for a few hours I will take some time to myself. Maybe get a sandwich...
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@theDragoon
I have some general comments and ideas I want to work through, but I think this is the important one for now and I'd appreciate your comments.
I want to post this because I feel your responses on it may be more helpful - tell me if you think something is logically correct or incorrect and why.
Sorry in advance, though, this may not be as composed as some of my other posts.
Prior to today I expected to vote Valenius. To go a step further, I think I telegraphed fairly clearly that Valenius was my likely vote. Similarly I feel Valenius telegraphed that I was his likely vote.
So, if the expectation is Valenius & I voting for each other-
If you are mafia you feel you are in a good position - if we cross our votes, you win.
If Valenius is mafia, he is uncertain. He only wins if you vote on me over him. He has to convince you that I am mafia.
Well, I can say that, but honestly it doesn't give me much. If Valenius is town, he still needs to convince you that I am mafia to win. If you are town, your priority is figuring out which of us is more scummy.
The telegraphed votes do feel relevant, though, to whether mafia Valenius would switch his vote.
In short, mafia Valenius has to decide:
Does he have a better shot at convincing me you are mafia?
Or does he have a better shot at convincing you that I'm mafia?
I am not sure, but I think he would conclude the second (convince you).
At that point in the game, we had all indicated our reads were sort of up for grabs. But, you had indicated a preference for voting for me, whereas I had indicated a preference for voting for Valenius. I had even said I would probably vote him even if he voted for you. So, I think mafia Valenius would have probably felt you were the easier one to fool.
Yet, he leaves me with something that is really townfeeling. He's moved his vote off me, which I know is a townsided play (because I'm town).
At the same time, it's frustrating that he does so in his departure post. Neither of us can press him on his actions any more because he's gone to sleep, so my final impression is a town move.
This is how I'm thinking right now, I don't have a specific question on it for you but if you comment on it maybe you can give me new something to think about.
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I don't think this post will have any relevance for my vote so it's fine if you skip it.
On February 27 2014 10:42 theDragoon wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2014 07:56 Amiko wrote:On February 27 2014 07:32 theDragoon wrote:
I don't know much about mafia game setups and the likelihood of certain roles appearing but from the point of view of mafia Amiko, it does look like a slip on n1k0's part. And it was really scummy how he calls you godfather then says you're town.
To read this as scum you have to decide there is no cop, but there is a godfather (a mafia role that exists to counteract investigative roles like cops). Okay, pretend you ignore this logical hurdle or decide maybe it's just a weird twist. Then, you have to decide that it's more likely n1k0 would name his one mafia partner (linking us, again, and even in the same post where he is voting with me) as the person who the cop shouldn't check. I mean I feel like n1k0 would have changed his name to aniko if he could have he was tying himself up with me so much. I keep making the same point I guess, but that just makes no sense for mafia to do. I'm still very new to the whole mafia game (forum and IRL) so I wouldn't have guessed that having a cop means there would be a godfather, but what you're saying makes perfect sense. I was just really eager to find the true mafia between the two of you, and it definitely is a scummy thing for n1k0 to do. Now that I think about it, it makes n1k0 look scummy (which he is). It wouldn't make sense to out his teammate like that but there's the possibility that he's mind gaming us but thinking that way doesn't lead anywhere. Perhaps he did it to try to implicate you?
Just to clarify, it's not that having cop means there is a godfather.
It's just, if there is no cop in the game, then, there is probably no godfather in the game.
There can be games with cops without godfathers, though.
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Ok answer this post from earlier. I am questioning you on your comment that what you did was bait.
As I indicate in this post, I do not understand how it can be bait-
Here is the summary, see the post below for more:
(1) First you say you can't explain it or it won't be bait. However, the post we are looking at came after the votes, so it's after mafia fell for the bait or didn't.
(2) You explained prior to the vote that you would change your vote (I didn't notice it before), so I don't understand - how is your post even bait if mafia knows you will switch your vote?
(3) You provided an explanation after the vote which didn't mention the idea of bait. Your justification is that it might maybe raising it later on would be useful. To me, it seems like either you lied to town then when explaining your vote, or you lied now.
Can you give me an example situation where that would be useful?
(4) Whether you are mafia or town I don't know why you even brought that up, it is just WEIRD.
On February 27 2014 07:20 Amiko wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2014 07:03 theDragoon wrote:
How can I use my bait if I explain it first? Also, that situation did not happen so I didn't want to tell town about it just in case it might be useful later on. For the record I did not lie about staying on Val, I stand by that statement and it's still one of the reasons why I'm tempted to switch onto him. Right now you're looking a lot more scummy than Val so my vote's on you. If you really are town I need you to convince me that Val is mafia, we are so close to winning this and I don't want to make the mistake of voting for you. However I'm not convinced right now. 1) If you had explained your bait in that post it would have affected nothing. Your post was after the lynch, so explaining it doesn't matter. 2) So if I understand this, you gave town a false/incomplete reason for your vote because revealing it later might somehow be helpful? Can you describe a situation where it would be helpful? I cannot :s 3) Ok he did reference changing his vote here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20840967But that still makes me feel this bait thing is something he just made up. Like you yourself said, how can you use the bait if you explain it first? How is that even a bait if you told everyone you would switch your votes? -- theDragoon you asked me to spend more time convincing you that Valenius is mafia. You provided some one-line reasons for why you voted for me. In the post above, I put links to the recent posts which you said you didn't read. Inside those posts are defenses. If you are town and find my arguments are convincing and believe I am town, you should believe Valenius is mafia by process of elimination. So you have some arguments of mine to work with.
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On February 27 2014 11:12 theDragoon wrote:
Ok, call it bad logic or whatever, I'm not exactly that great of a mafia player, which is why I got lynched day 1 my last game. I do agree that it would have been poor mafia play if someone caught on early, but I was just trying to entertain all possibilities.
Sorry if I'm being mean, I didn't mean it that way I just was frantic and worried. Whether you are town or mafia I didn't feel like your play was bad, it's just that your comments today really threw me for a loop. I mean I misread Cavalinho, started a case on Robik, was slow voting on n1k0 day 2, and then voted Beneather. I think these were justified, but I still think I have made some mistakes through this game.
This decision is particularly hard because if you were mafia, I feel like you didn't need to post your vote on me. It's only thanks to that comment I was able to convince one town to remove their vote from me, I just don't know whether that town is you or Valenius yet.
I've got about 35 minutes left so there's still a little time to work through this.
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On February 27 2014 11:24 theDragoon wrote:
I think his purpose today was to determine exactly that, hence the early vote on you. He wanted to see if I followed suit and wanted to gauge your reaction. His switch onto me means he found that he had a better chance of convincing you that I am mafia.
See this is the thing which I feel makes it more likely that this was not a play by Valenius.
Your post prior to the vote did indicate you were going to vote. But, Valenius didn't know when you were going to vote. And, he could only try to win me over by swapping votes if there was reason to do so, and there wasn't reason until you voted.
To be fair, Valenius did indicate he was looking at the times of posts (in his last post he refers to your vote time and he mentioned comparing the vote times of me and n1k0). It's possible that he guessed you would be back in the afternoon and put up a post.
Yet even then, if your post had been stronger my response might have been to try to convince you rather than him, which I think is a fair assumption by him given how I was reading him as mafia.
I'm just saying, without your vote and my frantic response, he was basically locked into the vote on me.
(I mean Valenius could pop up in the next 30 minutes, if so please show up now cause I have some questions for you)
In other words, I can see Valenius making the vote swap play to win me over. But, I don't think he could have reliably expected to be able to make that play because it needed you to make a post that was weird/scummy enough to justify him changing his vote and me seeing you as scum.
--
I could definitely be wrong on this, and if so sorry to everyone. Please forgive me because I am certainly trying as hard as I can on this one.
@theDragoon I am not done reading, keep on posting, I could change my mind. I will keep reading and responding.
If Valenius is scum then I don't know what to say except wow, gg.
##Vote: theDragoon
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I forgot to bold again. I'm good at this game.
##Vote: theDragoon
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On February 27 2014 11:38 theDragoon wrote:
@Amiko
I want to ask you, do you think Val's justification to vote for me is solid? Would it be something you agree with? That's pretty much the only reason he's voted for me, if he really thought I was mafia I'm sure there would be a lot more evidence that proves it.
Yes and no. I mean, I don't feel that the last post from him put any sort of strong case on you. To me your conclusion that he was town was totally legit, it's one I reached myself. I don't find the timing to be that persuasive.
The thing is, I do feel like your weird play in the last day (your bait with explanation, or late explanation for something that is different than your prior explanation, your non responsiveness to defenses yet asking me to defend, your summary vote post) felt like weird plays.
I keep using the word weird because it's like, if you are lying about the bait, why would you? If you did miss my responses, why would you?
Maybe I should see that as weighing for you as town. In other words, by that logic I raised a second case on you that I do not feel is strong, so Valenius shouldn't have switched his vote (because my case was not compelling enough).
I think this is actually the best post you made tonight and if anything is going to convince me it's probably that. I'm going to reread my case on you and decide how I feel on it.
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(as I look at my posts, by "my case on you" I guess I really mean my frantic attempts to convince Valenius I am town)
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This is stupid but I think I'm actually going to quote my own posts and criticize them LOL
On February 27 2014 06:10 Amiko wrote:
Valenius, theDragoon's vote should be really convincing to you that he is mafia over me. Although you felt more scummy, I have to conclude he is mafia based on that post and I will not bother trying to convince him at this point.
I really wish I had not said this. On the one hand as a town in LYLO the only way I can win is to convince the town voting on me not to.
I did accomplish this (because you have moved your votes to each other). But, I indicated strongly to Valenius that I would vote for theDragoon so it makes it very tempting to swap onto me.
I guess from that I have to conclude that I can't really consider Valenius' swap onto me as indicative of towniness, even if it had a town result.
Time is about up.
I am certainly not sure about the vote, it'd be nice to end the day strong but I'm not there.
gg either way and well played to both sides
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Here's my coach QT with Balla, I tried to post there somewhat often so I could refer to my own thoughts too.
http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/N2cxFAYK3hr
Some minor notes on my play and thoughts-
> I breadcrumbed being vanilla town in my first post. As Balla pointed out, this serves no purpose, but I felt clever at the time. lol.
> I felt posting this in the forum would be a mistake, but one reason I hesitated on n1k0 is that if I was mafia and saw one player call another player an asshole, I would go out of my way to keep those players in the game together so they could hurt the town atmosphere. So, I thought mafia would be less likely to vote Cavalinho
> I don't know if my vote analysis n1 was wrong or people just played weird. If that was wrong I would appreciate knowing it 
> I am pleased with my play to the extent that I got a lynch off of me day 1 + 4. I don't think I my reads or leadership were that great, even if I did end up on the right person two times out of four.
> I think theDragoon played pretty consistently well throughout the game and would have probably won if his post voting me were done after Valenius went to sleep or with more backing. I don't think it was a terrible post, but I was so desperate that it was the only thing I could use and I just tried to get as much mileage out of it as possible.
This was my first forum game and a mixed experience for me.
I was hoping that with 24 hours between posts, the game would provide more numerical analysis of votes, posts, phrasing, etc. But even with time I feel I often didn't post things quite how I intended, and there was very little analysis of that sort.
The constraints of forum mafia really came across in the last day... the brief period where all three living players were on at the same time was invaluable to me in moving away from my prior scumread on Valenius and convincing him I was town. I really feel that if our times hadn't lined up just so it'd probably be over.
I'll welcome any postgame comments from anyone on my play, I felt like I learned a lot through playing. Thanks again to all the hosts and coaches.
(I edited this post cause the game is over)
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On February 16 2014 14:45 Amiko wrote:I don't really know how to start a good discussion d1 but here is at least a little information me I can volunteer: This will be my first forum mafia game! I have read a few threads but I do not recognize any of the players in this game. I have played epicmafia sometimes and have watched a few streams (pope, ring, ello, koibu). I am townsided this game. I will be up for another hour or so tonight, but usually I do not post early in the mornings here though (US MST). So far I like that Beneather asked about the modpost for innocent child! Thanks for remembering. When I don't have information yet I like voting for non-active people. Right now that's theDragoon, n1k0, and OnceKing. But, I want to hold my vote for a little longer since the game just started. And it will be an implicit promise I will not be afk or lurking because I have to come back before the deadline to vote 
lol
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EPT![[image loading]](http://www.openbooktoronto.com/sites/default/files/obt/illustrations/I%20have%20no%20idea.jpg)
