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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On January 29 2014 05:19 austinmcc wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2014 05:18 Foolishness wrote:On January 28 2014 21:17 WaveofShadow wrote:
You guys are assuming that marv is his secomndary and I am his (tertiary) target when he bever states that anywhere in his recent posts
I wanted to hear that stuff from him to try and get a read rather than have people put words in his mouth---now he may get all defensive about it which might convolute a read
Not that I have time to read much today really Yes I did that on purpose. I made no mention of Austin anywhere in my posts yet Austin looks like he's taking the information I provided and is trying to draw conclusions, while Marv is just trying to debunk everything I say (instead of say, analyzing the Promethelax case and looking for connections to the last mafia). Austin knows he's innocent so he didn't read at all into the fact that his name wasn't mentioned, because that wasn't on his mind. Marv noticed it in particular because he knows he's guilty. (Except it's also really apparent why you'd do that and the only possible other targets were marv and myself and there were already reasons to be suspicious of him)
Sure, and I understand that. I didn't really have much room to work with on that front. But on the page after I posted my analysis Marv makes this post:
On January 28 2014 11:06 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2014 10:57 kitaman27 wrote:On January 28 2014 10:54 marvellosity wrote:
Patience is in limited supply
as is my ability to stay awake much longer when i must go to bed Regardless of his read on you, what do you think about his thoughts on Prom? They look fine. Mostly everything looks fine. The issue is, the conclusions are wrong. The voting that I showed makes no sense whatsoever. As for Prome's meta, there are two pretty important things. One is that he's had time issues this game. Now I'm sure if he's mafia blabla he may have just avoided the thread in general, but not like this, and Prome is 100% not the kind of guy that would ever lie about time issues with work. He just isn't. The 2nd, major issue that Fool has (purposefully?) not taken into account is Prome's ego. Prome's ego is large, somewhat justifiably so. This isn't an insult, just an observation. In every game he plays, he considers himself one of the top townies. And he acts like it. Go look at PyP LoL postgame (or there's some other thread where he says it) - he's bigging himself up for being awesome there and he's annoyed that he wasn't given enough credit for it. Now, in relation to this game - yes, his ego is large. But he's not an idiot, and he's well aware that in this field, he is, for a change, one of the smaller fish. He's definitely referenced that in the thread, probably both pre-game and post-game. This will affect his "swagger" quite considerably, in that he looks up to most of the players here, rather than down, like he normally does. So he's more unsure, he's more willing to listen (example that post that Fool quotes where Prome is trusting gonzaw's read on sand). It's a large, missing piece of this read.
Read this post carefully and you'll realize that there's something wrong. This is not a Marv town post. In particular I feel that his first three sentences show that he's mafia. He says: "They look fine. Mostly everything looks fine. The issue is, the conclusions are wrong."
How can the analysis be right but the conclusions be wrong? That's saying, "oh Foolishness you're right, Promethelax is not playing his town game, definitely is pushing a mafia agenda, does not care about the town lynches and only his survival, he has the really bad vote posts which shows that he's pushing an agenda....but he's town". What?!? That's not a town way of thinking at all. If a town looks at my post about Promethelax and disagrees with it he's going to point out the flaws in my logic: "actually his voting could have been from a town perspective because X and Y" or "that Promethelax post could have come from town Promethelax because look at his other town games where he did something similar". Something to that effect. A town isn't going to look at that and be like, "yup, Foolishness does perfect analysis except he drew the wrong conclusions".
Even so, why is Marv going out of his way to defend Promethelax? The thoughts don't line up. I'd guess he'd start making connections between Promethelax and other players ("well I know I'm town and Foolishness's analysis looks pretty good so gotta find the remaining mafia") or just defend himself ("well I know I'm town and Foolishness is implying that I'm the last mafia. I can prove my innocence so something is wrong here"). Perhaps these are wifom arguments, but Marv's line of thinking is not consistent.
And to address what he said here, sure it's a good point to make about Promethelax's ego. But that can only explain so much. That doesn't address why he's not interested in the town lynches, why he made a strange list without incriminating anyone (and why Marv wasn't on that list). Second, if Promethelax does have an ego I'd expect him to vote for who he thinks is mafia above all instead of going with Gonzaw.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Kita I can address your concerns here, let me know if I missed something.
I'm pretty sure I answered this in my Q&A but I did look at WoS first. But I couldn't find anything good to work with. So I tackled the problem from a different angle and decided to go after either you or Toad. If I could show that one of you is mafia then my WoS idea would hold a lot of ground. As for why I picked Toad first? I don't know and I don't remember. I think I might have thought he would be easier to analyze since I had him and HolyFlare to look at it.
When I saw he was town I decided to document all the information I went through. This is because I thought, "okay, WoS/Kita are my mafia team. I can write a post on each showing that they are mafia and complement it with this post showing that Toad is town which will reinforce my night 1 theories about the votes". So I wrote that post. I went back to WoS; still had trouble finding evidence (I even started writing a post against him but didn't get very far). Then I decided to look at you. I saw that you were likely town immediately but went through all the motions just to make sure. I wanted the long post against you because if it wasn't there (if I just wrote a long paragraph about why you're town as you suggested) I didn't think anyone would buy it: "Foolishness, you've been calling him scum for a while now and you give us a paragraph about why he's town?!?! yeah right!" It felt like it was necessary to provide the whole case on a larger scale as well because it accurately helps to explain what's going on in this game.
As I said before, during the time I was absent from the thread I went through WoS a lot. A lot.
"Furthermore, you state that Wave + Kita makes a lot of sense. However, according to the time frame that you're providing, you state that you didn't take a look at my filter with this pair in mind until after you've made this statement. So essentially you're saying that it makes a lot of sense before actually looking to see if it makes a lot of sense?"
Yes that's correct. My mindset was still on the vote analysis I made on night 1. The mafia is in the group of four, VE is town because he already flipped, so I have to choose two of three. You made sense as his partner because you voted for Promethelax day 1 and I honestly thought "Kita is a very reasonable person, if he fails to see my logic he's probably mafia". Yeah it's kinda a stupid way of thinking but it made sense at the time because I was so sure I was right. Once I realized that it was possible I was wrong all along all your actions this game made a lot more sense.
"I'm more interested in the angle of "Did sandroba bus Prom?", rather than the other way around. In my opinion, this is the single most relevant piece of information in regards to Prom's alignment, but I don't really see any mention of it."
sandroba plays a very risky mafia. He always goes for the big plays. I don't think sandroba bussing Promethelax is that odd. But also, keep this in mind. At the time when he voted for Promethelax day 1 the votes are tied at 3 apiece. VE, Gonzaw, and WoS are voting for me. Myself, Kitaman, and sandroba are voting for Promethelax. If what I'm saying is true that this wasn't a bus at all! Why? There are still two mafia who haven't voted yet! Marv and Promethelax can easily drop their votes on me and I'm for sure to get lynched with 5 votes (remember we only had 10 votes to work with, not 11 cause of HolyFlare). And that's exactly what did happen. The end result of me getting lynched would be that suspicious sandroba would look incredibly good for the following days, and marv and Promethelax can just put the blame on the other 3 people that voted for me (in particular odd-behaving VE and one of my suspects WoS).
Sandroba's vote wasn't a bus. It was a smart mafia vote.
As everyone is correct in saying, mafia had no idea that sandroba would get lynched. But when it did happen they went all-in on the plan (remember sandroba is the risky mafia player). This makes even more sense because all three of them were clearly around for lynch time. All it needed was one sentence from sandroba "Do it, vote for me" and it happened. Or Marv could have voted for him thinking I was still going to get lynched. When Hapa hammered Promethelax dropped his vote as well. Both scenario's look possible (and both fit what we know about sandroba).
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On January 29 2014 06:16 WaveofShadow wrote:
Also I hate I HATE that this is happening 2h prelynch.
Unacceptable townplay from austin/foolishness.
Where was this shit 2 days ago
I almost want to stay on foolishness purely based on principle. I get the feeling if he flips town Prome is confirmed scum for some reason but I have to go back and read shit but I won't have time for a while postlynch
I spent my time defending myself in the thread. I removed myself from the game because I wasn't getting anywhere and only causing the town more grief.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On January 29 2014 06:41 WaveofShadow wrote:
I'd feel pretty decent about austin/fool scumteam
I don't mind being wrong about my initial townread on austin it was pretty weak but there will be plenty of time for that.
I'm really just hoping fool is mafia so I can keep using my tell to some degree
I think the only person its ever failed me on is Rayn in persona but thayts cause tunnel rayn is crazy as shit and town shouldn't act that way
Does that team make sense to you? You've been the one going after Promethelax since day 2. I thought your case on him was pretty bogus at the time but now I realize you were right on the mark.
The mafia is Marv and Promethelax
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
This needs to be reposted because it's really important.
On January 29 2014 06:25 austinmcc wrote:
KITAMAN'S COMBINATRICS CRAP
Toad is on board here with marv/prome/foolishness, pick 2
WoS or kita, are you as well?
Regardless, here's how that set of 3 people plays out! marv/foolishness OR prome/foolishness OR marv/prome
(1) marv + foolishness
marv attacks foolishness on D1, because of Foolishness's sandroba comments. That's a lot of mafia on mafia on mafia interaction. Foolishness attacks marv on D1 for not doing much, again, a lot of mafia on mafia on mafia interaction.
Does it make sense? It does if they go "jesus we're going to look weird if we're around at endgame, we need to sacrifice one or two of us to get one guy to endgame." They drop sandroba, giving marv credit, but keeping foolishness and marv at odds.
Overall though, i find this UNLIKELY, because it seems like a terrible plan to START THE GAME thinking you're going to lynch your buddies and set yourselves apart. Their D1s, both posting that the other looks scummy, and continuing to harp on that, make it look like they are NOT mafia together.
(2) prome + foolishness
Town had the bestest D1 EVER? And again, from D1, foolishness and prome are calling each other mafia and setting themselves apart? Then Foolishnes is going "prome is the best lynch" --> I was wrong, prome likely town --> Prome is the best lynch? What does this accomplish for that team?
Two scenarios. In one, they want PROME lynched and Foolishness alive. Foolishness gets a little town cred, maybe doesn't get lynched tomorrow. But here's the deal. He needs TWO mislynches. He's basically locked into not lynching Kita or Toad. So he goes for marv ezpz, after prome flips. Fine. Then Foolishness only has myself/WoS to go after. He's gone hard back to WoS is town, and is continuing to state that, push that, today when he just got back to thread. If he needs WoS as a mislynch, I don't think he reinforces the idea that he finds WoS townie. If he wants to go after me, he probably doesn't keep halfway buddying me. I think that this plan makes 0 sense. ESPECIALLY because the plan is "have Foolishness survive until endgame and secure a mislynch." Townies are going to be really creeped out by a living Foolishness at that point, ESPECIALLY after Foolishness worked so hard to get prome lynched. It just doesn't work.
So the other scenario. They want FOOLISHNESS lynched today. Prome lives. MAYBE some people give him credit for Foolishness attacking him, who knows. Prome now needs two mislynches. He can get me killed pretty easily, because of my defending foolishness and conduct today. His other mislynch is ... more open. HE can go after toad or kita easier than Foolishness can, saying Foolishness is dicking town around with one of those reads. He can go after WoS, saying WoS looks weird for Foolishness coming back to town on him and really not trying hard to get WoS lynched over VE. Prome has way way way more options to win the game than Foolishness does. It looks LESS WEIRD if prome is around at endgame, and he has more choices.
A mafia team of prome + foolishness HAS AN EASIER TIME OF WINNING if we lynch foolishness and not prome.
(3) prome + marv
In this case, we don't want to lynch Foolishness
If you think that the remaining mafia are within foolishness/promethelax/marv, then you should be lynching promethelax.
Because in one scenario, Foolishness is town. In one scenario, BOTH are mafia, but mafia has an EASIER TIME WINNING if we lynch Foolishness and not promethelax. The ONLY reason you should be voting Foolishness, IF you think mafia is in those three, is if you think the team is Foolishness + marv. I find that team very very unlikely, given how they'd played and interacted.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On January 29 2014 06:43 WaveofShadow wrote:
No you weren't, you being here to talk with people was arguably more helpful than dropping essays and causing the entire town to flip its shit
Fine. Regardless does this matter now?
Look at the evidence against Promethelax. Can you really read what I said about him and say that he's town?
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On January 29 2014 06:44 marvellosity wrote:
yes, marv & prome at 5-3-2 on fool definitely decide just to randomly kill off a player (WHEN THE OPTION EXISTS TO LOOK GOOD BUSSING HIM TOMORROW) because sand is a "risky mafia player".
Kinda disappointed that was the best angle you could find to take fool. shrug.
This doesn't really matter anymore. If you're going to take that stance how come you haven't been agreeing with me that the mafia are in the group of 4 I called out on night 1 (or even add me and call it a group of 5)? That doesn't match up with your thinking at all.
Just forget what happened with the day 1 votes for a moment. Go back and analyze people and just hunt for mafia. It's incredibly clear based on that what's going on. I spent too much time focusing on what happened with the sandroba lynched and it led me entirely in the wrong direction. When I was able to remove that from my head and just scum-hunt I was able to figure things out. After doing that then put it what happened on day 1 and see if it's possible. It definitely is.
I don't know why you're bringing so much attention to the day 1 votes as well. Well, I do know why, but for the others here I still haven't seen why my analysis on Promethelax is flawed other than "his ego is gone", but that can only explain so much.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On January 29 2014 06:45 WaveofShadow wrote:
I have a great deal of trouble believing marv is scum
Too many town-marv things this game + mindmelds
The only thing that would make me facepalm if we lose to him was that feel I got early on for never thinking he is scum when I ALWAYS do
Maybe it's cause he's a good player? lol I didn't want to believe it either at first but now that I know Promethelax is mafia all that's left is to make sure it's not Austin. And I guess make sure it's not you for doing some complicated bus on Promethelax night 1. But I'm done running those kinds of theories. Your town, I'm town, Kita and Toad are town, Austin is likely town. Promethelax is a known mafia, Marvellosity is the last mafia.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On January 29 2014 06:50 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2014 06:44 Foolishness wrote:On January 29 2014 06:43 WaveofShadow wrote:
No you weren't, you being here to talk with people was arguably more helpful than dropping essays and causing the entire town to flip its shit Fine. Regardless does this matter now? Look at the evidence against Promethelax. Can you really read what I said about him and say that he's town? yu should have been here one of the myriad times I was in thread to discuss this with me. I can't do this from my phone. Too little too late---if you flip town I will re-read everything you have written. You have my word.
I mean, I understand where you're coming from. I said that my time was limited and I would be here when I could. But really -_-
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On January 29 2014 06:53 WaveofShadow wrote:
So what you're saying to marv right now about too much focu on D1 votes and not enough scumhunting?
You know how hypocritical that is I'm sure, but it could also be applied to a lot of people in the thread.
EXCEPt MEEEEE
But yeah foolishness surely you would be one to know scumhunting>>all right? So much unflipped association shit in this game that everyone got dragged into.
I think gonzaw and kita might have been prett good about it too
Why do you doubt your analysis on Promethelax now? And why do you doubt everything I've said about him?
By the way Austin's post about Marv's day 1 vote is really good and accurate. Almost mirrors what happened with Promethelax's vote as well.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On January 29 2014 06:56 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2014 06:54 Foolishness wrote:On January 29 2014 06:50 WaveofShadow wrote:On January 29 2014 06:44 Foolishness wrote:On January 29 2014 06:43 WaveofShadow wrote:
No you weren't, you being here to talk with people was arguably more helpful than dropping essays and causing the entire town to flip its shit Fine. Regardless does this matter now? Look at the evidence against Promethelax. Can you really read what I said about him and say that he's town? yu should have been here one of the myriad times I was in thread to discuss this with me. I can't do this from my phone. Too little too late---if you flip town I will re-read everything you have written. You have my word. I mean, I understand where you're coming from. I said that my time was limited and I would be here when I could. But really -_- True, and that's why ill feel kinda bad if you flip town, but you must admit, much of the timing between you and I appeared as if you were purposefully avoiding me. (I'm not lynching you because of that)
I thought you were here the second time I posted yesterday but you weren't and I fell asleep =/
Then why are you lynching me? You said you already feel bad about it. Remember what you said about Promethelax and VE earlier in the game. You were on the money, just everyone else was looking at this game from different angles (the wrong angles too I might add) so the discussion didn't go anywhere. But now it can.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On January 29 2014 06:57 kitaman27 wrote:
Suppose we had a hypothetical situation where I wouldn't want to lynch Prom, but I'd consider marv. Otherwise, I'd vote foolishness. Show of hands, who would support that and who would oppose it?
Brb, 45 mins.
Would support (obviously) but the evidence on Promethelax is too overwhelming.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On January 29 2014 07:03 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2014 06:58 Foolishness wrote:On January 29 2014 06:56 WaveofShadow wrote:On January 29 2014 06:54 Foolishness wrote:On January 29 2014 06:50 WaveofShadow wrote:On January 29 2014 06:44 Foolishness wrote:On January 29 2014 06:43 WaveofShadow wrote:
No you weren't, you being here to talk with people was arguably more helpful than dropping essays and causing the entire town to flip its shit Fine. Regardless does this matter now? Look at the evidence against Promethelax. Can you really read what I said about him and say that he's town? yu should have been here one of the myriad times I was in thread to discuss this with me. I can't do this from my phone. Too little too late---if you flip town I will re-read everything you have written. You have my word. I mean, I understand where you're coming from. I said that my time was limited and I would be here when I could. But really -_- True, and that's why ill feel kinda bad if you flip town, but you must admit, much of the timing between you and I appeared as if you were purposefully avoiding me. (I'm not lynching you because of that) I thought you were here the second time I posted yesterday but you weren't and I fell asleep =/ Then why are you lynching me? You said you already feel bad about it. Remember what you said about Promethelax and VE earlier in the game. You were on the money, just everyone else was looking at this game from different angles (the wrong angles too I might add) so the discussion didn't go anywhere. But now it can. Youir second post was like almost 3h later I think. I was long gone. Just because I was right about VE doesn't mean I'm suddenly town god and right about everything. Are my reasons for thinking Prome is scum suddenly good? And kita, I will not participate in shenannies today. The biggest ???? In the game needs to be lynched (and I can't be certain I can phonepost then)
I didn't say you were right about everything. But you were definitely on the right track, way before I figured things out or anyone else realized it as well. As I said at the time I thought your thinking was all backward which was part of the reason I thought you were mafia. But I had it all wrong.
Also I'm not stopping until you can look me in the eyes and tell me that what I've said about Promethelax is wrong (and what about it is wrong) and that Promethelax will flip town.
You said you will feel bad if I flip town. That's cause you know it will happen. At least I think you know it. Are you going to feel bad if Promethelax flips town? Probably not, or at least not to the same extent. That's cause you know you're thinking about him is correct.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On January 29 2014 07:20 WaveofShadow wrote:
I will say you are right though that I don't remember thinking you were wrong per se
But that doesn't make you town, nor does it necessarily make prome scum
This is the cinversation we needed to have while I was around dude
No shitflinging, no giant-ass posts. I needed a real read of you that wasn't simply focused on your ability to pre-think evrything
GL w lynch guys
I have an idea where to go from here and regardless of the outcome I think we'll get a ton of info if the course is stayed
Sure, it doesn't make me town or make him mafia. But you don't have the same doubts about it. That's obvious in your posting when you talk about me and talk about him. You have doubts about me but think my flipping will clear things up, which it probably will. But at the same time when you don't have doubts about Promethelax you know that he's mafia. I know it too and the rest of us know it.
Promethelax is mafia.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
This should give you everything you need to prove the case on Marv.
Town in LXIV (first game) here
Town in ## here
Town in LXII here
Mafia in Desert Mini here
The game where he's mafia should prove everything. Combine that with his usual town play and the difference should be clear.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On January 29 2014 07:25 Toadesstern wrote:
There's been too much chaos. There's 2 mafias within Foo/Prome/Marv. We're staying on this lynch right now and keep on lynching Prome/Marv tomorrow. Simple as that
Yes, and how does it make sense for any of the mafia teams to include me on it?
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On January 29 2014 07:28 marvellosity wrote:
The game where I never bussed and gave up day 3
It's called "behavior analysis" not "bus analysis" for a reason.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On January 29 2014 07:31 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2014 07:31 Foolishness wrote:On January 29 2014 07:28 marvellosity wrote:
The game where I never bussed and gave up day 3 It's called "behavior analysis" not "bus analysis" for a reason. You didn't do any on me. This is why you're so full of bs.
Hopefully someone else can finish it up. But the summary of it is:
1) Posts have more content when you're town. By that I mean your posts always say or do something. When you're mafia you have more "fluffy" posts. You'll comment on something or give out an idea, but without directly saying or accomplishing anything.
2) Posts are more direct when you're town. Let's be honest, you're marvellosity, and you're known for lynching scum, bitches, and VE. When you're town you make it happen, you don't sit around and wait for someone else to take up the reins. As mafia you're less direct and you wait for someone else to start something before jumping in.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
On January 29 2014 07:41 WaveofShadow wrote:
Hey fool before you die wanna do a quick analysis of the marv/prome discussion this morning?
Anything faked in there? (Did you talk about it already?)
Nothing pops out, but there's nothing to suggest it couldn't have been faked (by "faked" I'm assuming you mean both mafia). I don't think there's anything to read into there.
I did notice that Promethelax also assumed that I was putting Marvellosity as the last mafia. That's because I made them nervous. They sure are contributing a lot to the town conversation after I called one of them out. In contrast you posted this:
On January 28 2014 21:22 WaveofShadow wrote:
Oh yeah I guess it does kinda.
And marv I know you were implicitly indicated but I wanted to see if hed actually meant you or go for austin
Which makes sense as a town. You don't know who I'm implicating as the last. Austin assumed it wasn't him because he's town and didn't think about it.
Regardless, that whole thing I did shouldn't even matter. Promethelax is mafia for the reasons I stated and Marv is his partner.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Resposting this. DONT FORGET IT LATER
On January 29 2014 07:27 Foolishness wrote:This should give you everything you need to prove the case on Marv. Town in LXIV (first game) hereTown in ## hereTown in LXII hereMafia in Desert Mini hereThe game where he's mafia should prove everything. Combine that with his usual town play and the difference should be clear.
On January 29 2014 07:43 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2014 07:31 marvellosity wrote:On January 29 2014 07:31 Foolishness wrote:On January 29 2014 07:28 marvellosity wrote:
The game where I never bussed and gave up day 3 It's called "behavior analysis" not "bus analysis" for a reason. You didn't do any on me. This is why you're so full of bs. Hopefully someone else can finish it up. But the summary of it is: 1) Posts have more content when you're town. By that I mean your posts always say or do something. When you're mafia you have more "fluffy" posts. You'll comment on something or give out an idea, but without directly saying or accomplishing anything. 2) Posts are more direct when you're town. Let's be honest, you're marvellosity, and you're known for lynching scum, bitches, and VE. When you're town you make it happen, you don't sit around and wait for someone else to take up the reins. As mafia you're less direct and you wait for someone else to start something before jumping in.
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EPT
