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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On November 20 2013 12:06 cDgCorazon wrote: Moc obv town. Fuck da police! I think Cora is most likely to be scum so far. His entrance to the thread is what I would describe as very 'safe'. It's trolly, ingratiating, and echoes what Mocsta already said. agree or disagree. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On November 20 2013 12:18 Aquanim wrote: A teeny-tiny town-lean since he seems to be relaxed. That's interesting. I assumed you were coming to the opposite conclusion, since to me his response looks more "sarcastic and dodgy" than "just saying no". What about his response strikes you as relaxed? + Show Spoiler [sarcastic and dodgy] + On November 20 2013 12:06 Mocsta wrote: Scum: a layer of dirt or froth on the surface of a liquid. No, I am not. I am a mobster, which is typically "scum" in the world of forum-mafia However, in this game, roles are reversed and of the town I am. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On November 20 2013 12:28 thrawn2112 wrote: Who wants a free town read? I've only got one, get it while supplies last! All you need to do is be the first to respond to this post! mocsta is ineligible because him and I are already confirmed town to each other @thrawn You are masons? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On November 20 2013 12:44 cDgCorazon wrote: Thx for piggybacking on my post. I really appreciate it. I didnt' 'piggyback' on your post. Our posts aren't saying at all the same thing. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On November 20 2013 12:52 cDgCorazon wrote: My post basically said "so you are claiming mason? interesting..." Your post said "you are mason?" So I guess you could say that a lack of reaction is a difference. But it's not like we "aren't saying at all the same thing". @cora You made the assumption that he was claiming mason and commented on its plausibility. I found that assumption troubling, and asked him if he was in fact claiming mason. + Show Spoiler [cora] + I think it is sciberia either not understanding that the first page of a game is usually just joking around or he is trying to rock the boat ridiculously early in the game. Seeing as sciberia is not new to this game, I think it's the latter. @cora Guilty as charged. I dislike random bullshit phase. Just because most games start with a bunch of trolling doesn't mean we have to. I think we're actually doing quite well so far. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On November 20 2013 13:36 Rean wrote: Aquanim, you're constantly asking but never saying much about what you think. Gimme one town and one scum and reasons why please. Do you find this behavior suspicious from Aquanim or are you simply making an observation? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
What is your strongest scumread right now and why? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
You're wrong about me but I think you may very well be right about Cora. I resent that you stole my thunder though -- almost done a case on him. @thrawn I legitimately thought Cora was the scummiest person in the thread at the time (if by the tiniest of margins). My intention was mainly to get interesting discussion started. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On November 20 2013 15:39 Mocsta wrote: Post 12b @sci Did you open my spoiler and read my grievances with you? I skimmed it but was more interested in your thoughts on Cora. I'll respond to your post in a bit. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [quotes] + On November 20 2013 12:17 sciberbia wrote: I think Cora is most likely to be scum so far. His entrance to the thread is what I would describe as very 'safe'. It's trolly, ingratiating, and echoes what Mocsta already said. agree or disagree. On November 20 2013 12:06 Mocsta wrote: I understand some people view early trolling as part of the game, however, I would think you do not fall into this category. In fact, I would argue the above is completely out-of-character for a town Aquanim. On November 20 2013 12:24 Mocsta wrote: post 5 Scum like to interrupt town circles, so dial down the tone will ya. I think if there are 3 scum. So far it'saquanim, sciberbia and you. On November 20 2013 12:37 cDgCorazon wrote: On that note, sciberia needs to stop analyzing the first page so hard and just discuss. We're not going to find scum on the first page. You guys just need to talk instead of being at each other's throats 30 minutes into the game. 1) The first thing I want to emphasize is a point brought up by Bereft. Cora singled me out for stating preliminary reads on the first page, but glossed over Mocsta doing the same thing. This inconsistency is suspicious because it suggests that his problem wasn't with the stating of reads (in which case he should have been equally bothered by Mocsta), but rather with me specifically stating suspicion on him. 2) Next, I find suspicious Cora's early criticisms of my play. At first, the criticisms had a tone of "sciberbia's play is bad" (but not scummy). + Show Spoiler [neutral criticisms] + On November 20 2013 12:37 cDgCorazon wrote: On that note, sciberia needs to stop analyzing the first page so hard and just discuss. We're not going to find scum on the first page. You guys just need to talk instead of being at each other's throats 30 minutes into the game. On November 20 2013 12:44 cDgCorazon wrote: Thx for piggybacking on my post. I really appreciate it. On November 20 2013 12:57 cDgCorazon wrote: I think it is sciberia either not understanding that the first page of a game is usually just joking around or he is trying to rock the boat ridiculously early in the game. Seeing as sciberia is not new to this game, I think it's the latter. I find criticism of "bad play" in the first couple pages suspicious in general. Scum find it tempting to discredit townies and promote a negative town atmosphere. Townies on the other hand are more likely to be in a joyous mood after receiving their role PM, rather than antagonistic. 3) But specific to Cora, I'm troubled by the fact that when questioned about these posts by Bereft, Aquanim, and Thrawn, he retroactively analyzes my previous posts as scummy, whereas before his comments were noncommittal criticisms. If he really found my first few posts so scummy, the noncommittal criticisms are very unnatural. Originally he said this: + Show Spoiler [very alignment neutral] + On November 20 2013 12:37 cDgCorazon wrote: On that note, sciberia needs to stop analyzing the first page so hard and just discuss. We're not going to find scum on the first page. You guys just need to talk instead of being at each other's throats 30 minutes into the game. But then later this when questioned by thrawn: + Show Spoiler [scummy] + On November 20 2013 13:43 cDgCorazon wrote: @Thrawn In my opinion, if he was trying to create a good town atmosphere in the start, he did a very poor job of doing so. That's why I was thinking (and still am) that sciberia is scum. So according to Cora, he was thinking that I was scum simultaneously as he was writing that you cannot find scum on the first page? That's a pretty blatant contradiction and it seems more likely one that scum would make than town. I'd appreciate feedback on this case. I think it's the strongest one in the thread right now so ##Vote: cDgCorazon | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On November 20 2013 15:50 thrawn2112 wrote: That is a very interesting response. When I initially saw your first post I thought, "I like scib's post, it looks like he's trying to bait reactions or somesuch townie tactic because there is no way that he could actually be serious about this!" Here's why.. These posts came before your comment on Mocsta. Aren't they both as "safe" and "trolly" as what Corazon did? Why did you decide that only Corazon deserved to be called out for what bereft and I also did? One of your concerns with C's post is that it "echoes what Mocsta said." Typically a point like this can be valid when someone restates another's argument, and the reason why it would be scummy is because it means the person who "echoes" has to "echo" because they cannot produce content of their own. Are you really trying to suggest that Corazon didn't know what to say, so he decided to copy Mocsta, and is therefore scummy? That argument completely falls apart when you're talking about something so silly and non-alignment indicative as saying "fuck the police." @thrawn I agree it's an extremely weak tell. It was the first page of the game so that's all you can expect. Bereft's post is much more attention-grabby and less 'safe' than Cora's. If anything I leaned town on Bereft for his first post. Your first post was slightly less blendy than Cora's and you followed it up with a natural question, so that was a point in your favor. I'm not going to argue how Cora's first post makes him scum. That's just a silly argument. I just find it ever so slightly scummier than the other initial posts, so that's why I chose to single his out. I basically looked at all the opening posts and thought to myself, "Which of these might I post as scum if I was hoping to blend in and not draw attention?" and Cora's fit that description best. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + Having just come out of a game as scum. I personally feel this is written with the tone of scum-scum. Sciberbia takes a position using strong descriptive words "trolly" and "ingratiating" from one post that to me - with limited knowledge - is null. Further, Sciberbia references my name.. I find this odd. I know I am town, but only scum should be aware of that too. Now: SCiberbia does not comment on my alignment here; yet, directly infers it was scummish for Corazon to "echo" what I said. I felt his post was 99% null and the 1% scummy. That's all there is to it. It's really senseless to try to keep analyzing this when we now have so much more to go on. Your alignment was irrelevant. His post is blendy regardless of what your alignment is. + Show Spoiler + Again, as stated before this reads to me gentle prodding: NOT for information, but to discredit. Coming back to the thread, Aquanim reads a lot more calm/composed to me so is back to null. I think Sciberbia has jumped too brashly into an opportunity to shit-sling and from a player of his analytical background I find this highly suspicious. This isn't shit-slinging at all.. I was prodding aquanim for information. I was confused why he called your response townie because I thought the natural conclusion from his premises was that it was scummy. I thought he might just be scared to seriously call you scum which is why I asked for more explanation to see how genuine his response was. It seemed genuine enough so I let it go at that. + Show Spoiler + You claimed that my asking thrawn if he was claiming masons is a scumslip. This tell is objectively ridiculous on two levels. First of all, it was not perfectly clear whether thrawn was claiming masons or not, given that he used the words "confirmed town to each other" and he had stated no prior indication that he thought you were town (I checked). So I wasn't wrong to ask him whether he was claiming or not, because it was objectively unclear. And secondly, even if it was objectively crystal clear that he wasn't claiming masons, I'm pretty sure that my alignment has very little to no bearing on my reading comprehension. Let me know if I missed anything that you still want me to respond to. (thrawn, mocsta) | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Oh yea one other I wanted to reply to was your criticism that I ignored Cora for a while. I stopped prodding Cora because other people were doing a fine job of it and I thought it'd be more productive for them to ask questions such as "explain why you think this about sciberbia" than me doing it. Also I was getting increasingly suspicious of him so I decided to just observe and include my comprehensive thoughts in a later case. I didn't want to miss the opportunity to question Rean who is probably my second strongest read right now. I find Aquanim's above post on him agreeable. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Please give your read on Cora. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Pay close attention to what his reads are, and how what he chooses to post about is incongruous with his stated reads. + Show Spoiler [first post] + On November 20 2013 20:28 Onegu wrote: Reans first post into the thread and it just fakes activity. He doesnt say what he agrees with and there are multiple things to agree with, does he agree with all or only some he, never actually says what points he agrees with. This is a very scummy first post. Also if mocsta didnt retract his post limit on himself I was going to call him scum, but he did and I am ok with it for now. I do want to point out he only takes it after cora points out his spam. But unlike cora I thought it was scummy, because it was a easy way to avoid conversation. The was one more post from mocsta I didnt like will find it in moment it was post 4or 5 where he gives 3 scum reads with no reason and then says half the thread hasnt posted so his reads can change. Coras case on Sciberia is terribad and scummy. Anyway rean is really scumm though. Sorry Im at the mall but when I am home I will catchup on both of my games and be up late playing. Ill be checking in periodicly while Im at the mall though. In Onegu's first post, he states pretty significant scumreads on rean and Cora, both of whom have had significant heat on them today. But he spends the majority of his actual words in his post rambling about Mocsta's post count restriction, which is so irrelevant, seeing as he dropped it. Rean and Cora are rather large issues in the thread, and given that Onegu has rather significant scumreads on them, you would expect the majority of his posts to be dedicated to them, but notice how he always seems to instead ramble on about Mocsta. + Show Spoiler [Onegu] + On November 20 2013 22:39 Onegu wrote: Umm I think you are scum with rean. Catching scum would be my motive. On November 20 2013 22:44 Onegu wrote: That and his early post about giving scum reads to like the only three people who posted. Plus his thread control doesnt seem natural, its like he saw he could do it as scum but wasnt planning on doing it but he did it anyway. Ill give more when Im back home. On November 21 2013 01:49 Onegu wrote: Ok I am home and put my son to sleep so Im getting out my notebook rereading everything and will be back with you shortly, also I basicly agree with everything JJD has said so far minus a small bit of the cora stuff, but the rean and mocsta stuff yeah. But he took back his mospcsta scum read :/. Also I didnt read anyone being a douche to you mocsta so just stop already. On November 21 2013 03:37 Onegu wrote: @MOCSTA 1 hes trying to be clever there is nothing to be overdone and there is no way a troll post like this can be scummy, fuck the police was already taken... 2 why cant sciberia find the repeat and calling of you obv town scummy, but your troll post null as it was the first post in the thread? You getting that it is scum-scum interaction I dont understand how you get that read from this post. 3 how is this agressive, you put a pregame post restriction, then start the game numbering your posts, seems like you are going to keep your post restriction up. Calling you out for it isnt agressive its correct when all your first few posts are trolling. 4 this is fine 5 he made a troll response how is that overcompensated? Doesnt make sense and him not thinking the same as you is a scum read? 6 the first part of this is correct that post was null, the second part you can only get so much info from the first page and alot of page one was trolling. Telling someone to keep looking isnt scummy, its not damage control. 7 How is this a scumslip, 2 different people thought you were masons, I know you kinda think they are both scum at this point, but when you drop lines about being connected with thrawn people might think you are masoned, no way this is a scumslip. 8 again not a scumslip 9 reans first post is uber scummy. It fakes agreeing with coras null post, and then says nothing and there is no way he thinks he is saying something meaningful. 10 iirc you had already said you werent masons so he says the only other option how is that townie? 12 meh ok 12b also fine 13 you do the samething later on when you talking about haveing such a good town atmospher so how can you give him scum points for this? 14 syas nothing why you post this, I dont know his meta so this poat means nothing... 15 still dont know how you are seeing scum scum intreactions here. Maybe you are just tunneled at this point. Also at this point you say you like aqua calling out rean. 16 again why post a completely null post? 17 This is fine, but you are like he agrees with me that mean hes awesome town 18 this has been talked about already, why are you so tunneled on scum-scum here doesnt make since. 19 the post is good that means the timeing is fine also, even if I am argueing with someone and I see something that needs questioned I will question it reguardless of what else is going on 20 admit to being tunneled 21 this is fine 22 tunneled 23 meh no point in continueing on with cora, him moveing on is fine and how he did it was fine. 24 really wishywashy post but also slightly dinstanceing himself from rean while giveing him a town read at the same time. I think this is really scummy from you mocsta. Your thoughts on rean is just really odd. You can tell a lot about a player's alignment by looking at what they choose to post about. It doesn't make a lot of sense for town!Onegu to be spending all his posts on Mocsta, even pulling up really old (now somewhat irrelevent) posts from Mocsta and breaking them down, when he has stated strong scumreads on Rean and Corazon, both of which he may actually be able to get lynched today. Is he even pushing a Mocsta lynch? No. He's not actively pushing for anything at all. He doesn't seem to think Mocsta is scum anymore than he thinks Rean and Cora are scum, so it looks to me like he just wanted to stay away from the Rean and Cora wagons for one reason or another, and in order to still look like he was doing something complained a lot about Mocsta. It doesn't add up. I think he could be the best lynch today. Need to reread Aquanim, Cora, and Rean. Not sure who I want to lynch most. In the meantime I'd appreciate some other thoughts on Onegu. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On November 21 2013 10:31 Mocsta wrote: Ok Sciberbia, interesting tidbid. Onegu is a useless town player that is quite lurky and never has town credit to push his reads. As scum he maximises on that uselessness, but is also a major proponent of bussing. Thus, the extension aligns somewhat with your expectation that Cora/Rean/Onegu is a team. I will be keen to see your updated reads on those 2. I dont consider myself to be bussed due to the way Onegu has gone about it - its been clearly a smear campaign. + my role PM naturally. So having played with town Onegu before, what is your overall assessment of his scumhunting efforts so far this game? I would assume he generally I least tries to push his scumreads much more than he has today, right? Hell even in the one game I played with him where he was scum I think his play was more pushy. Responding to Rean next. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
The fact of the matter is I only have so much time to post per day, and I chose to allocate my time last night towards posting about Cora, my strongest scumread at the time, instead of you, as my read on you were not as strong. My problem with Rean's early play was well highlighted by Aquanim. Part of the reason I'm not too confident in an Aquanim lynch is I've agreed with a lot of his thoughts about Rean and Cora. Specifically I agree with Aquanim that Rean's early play lacks purpose. It doesn't look like he's actively scumhunting. In fact he has to be practically "talked into" his first scumread. On November 20 2013 13:57 Rean wrote: Persuasive...it's a good argument. Sciberbia was being more laidback, trying to avoid comitting to anything, so it definitely makes him look scummy. Overall the kind of argument that gets discussion started and gets us somewhere useful, I quite like it. Guess persuasive would be a decent way to describe it. Rean made a bunch of noncomittal observations, and then when specifically asked to look at Cora's argument on me, calls it persuasive, but also goes out of his way to mention that it "gets discussion started and gets us somewhere useful". He also doesn't score any points for agreeing with an argument that I think is objectively bad. I also don't like how Rean repeatedly calls out lurkers. This is typical of scum wanting to shift attention elsewhere and perhaps start an easy wagon. The things that give me pause concernign Rean are his activity and overall abrasiveness. Specifically, I don't know why he'd be picking this fight with me if he were scum. Given that I called him scummy, it strategically doesn't make any sense for him to provoke me, and actively engage in discussion with me, just as I said I'm deciding between him and a few others as my top candidate. Overall, leaning scum on him, but probably not the best lynch today. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I feel a lot better about lynching Onegu because literally nothing in Onegu's filter makes me not want to lynch him. He's been fairly lurky, and the little posting he does have doesn't look town motivated. ##Unvote ##Vote: Onegu | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On November 21 2013 11:05 Aquanim wrote: Let me put it this way - I see nothing in Onegu's posts which is making me lean town on him. However, I'd like to play devil's advocate for a little while to further understand your point of view. With regards to Onegu's first post this reads like the kind of post where he's just scanned the thread and picked out interesting tidbits without any overall plan to the post. If he's at the mall he's probably posting from his phone, which I imagine makes constructing an organised, coherent post difficult. I think it's understandable that in this post he's spent more time on Mocsta. The fact that he hasn't elaborated on Corazon and Rean in the rest of his filter is a scummy kind of thing to do, I agree. However, a fair proportion of his interactions with the thread are due to Mocsta asking him questions and critiquing Onegu's read on him, which would naturally lead to Onegu spending most of his time talking about Mocsta. (That being said, he doesn't seem to have talked about anyone other than Mocsta really at all after that first post. IF that doesn't change abrubtly when he gets back Onegu starts to look really bad.) @Sciberbia: How plausible do you think these explanations for Onegu's behaviour are? My opinion is that they could explain Onegu's play if he's town, but they're sufficiently unlikely that overall my leaning on Onegu is scummy. @Aquanim You make some valid points. I agree with your conclusion. Those explanations are somewhat plausible, but the explanations from a scum perspective are much more plausible. The scum motivation for his posting is more apparent than the town motivation, so the conclusion is that he's more likely scum. Also, I don't like this Aquanim lynch at all. I'm actually leaning town on him. His reads on Cora, Rean, and Onegu fall right in line with my thinking, which to me at least is obviously coming from a townie place. It also makes me really uncomfortable the way both Rean and Cora jumped on his wagon just as it was getting started. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On November 21 2013 11:25 raynpelikoneet wrote: So because Rean and Cora jumped on Aqua lynch you want to lynch Onegu? Quite a weird way of defending someone. I want to lynch Onegu because he's scummy. I don't want to lynch Aqua because he brings up a lot of original, logical points and I agree with his thought processes. The fact that Rean and Cora (out of which I would be surprised if neither were scum) jumped on the wagon is just an additional reason to think Aqua is town, not the primary reason as you are framing it. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On November 21 2013 11:21 Aquanim wrote: Do you think it would make more sense for Rean to avoid talking to you about your scumread? Confronting a read like that head-on and attacking is something I've seen scum do before. (For example, IIRC Spicydinosaur's scum play in NMM XLIII looked quite similar in that regard - when FirmTofu expressed a slight suspicion of him Spicydinosaur attacked him vehemently over it. In particular, Spicydinosaur didn't try to actually refute FT's points against him, but preferred to directly attack FT's play instead. This feels similar to Rean's play here.) Well I don't know anything about XLIII but in this game it just seems like an odd move for scum Rean to attack me where he did. Put yourself in scum Rean's shoes. I wrote a largish case on Cora and voted him, and when prompted mentioned my secondary read of Rean. At the time I wasn't actively pushing Rean's lynch in the thread, and if Rean is scum wouldn't he want to keep it that way? I would have expected him to ignore me and hope that I spent all my time and energies on Cora instead. Look at it this way. I made it clear that I had scummy points against Rean, but I hadn't shared them with the thread. Why would he be so eager to have me share these reasons if he were scum? Seems more likely a townie move (if he actually thinks I'm scum). I think it's a point in his favor. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On November 21 2013 11:36 raynpelikoneet wrote: sciberbia. I have a serious question to you. If you were town and being voted 24h into day phase what would you do? scumhunt? try to find scum? That's what i would do. What does Aquanim do? "Mocsta and sciberbia, ask me anything and i'll answer". Is this in your mind a legit way to prove your towniness if you think (as Aquanim does) you have answered to every accusation pointed towards you? @rayn I completely disagree with you about this. The way that Aquanim has continued to push his reads in spite of being on the back foot is a townie point in his favor. You snipped the bottom 2 lines of a huge post in which Aquanim was scumhunting and concluded that he wasn't scumhunting. Look at the following posts. It's not like all he's doing is defending himself and reacting to other people's questions. + Show Spoiler [Aquanim] + On November 21 2013 08:10 Aquanim wrote: So, these votes on me. Jampidampi + Show Spoiler + On November 21 2013 00:22 jampidampi wrote: Assuming you mean your case on Aquanim. I like it. I especially like how it applies to Aquas play even after the case. ##Vote: Aquanim Here's some more evidnce against Aquanim: This post is odd. It feels like Aqua really wanted to say the first paragraph and inserted the second one to make a post with more substance. If Aqua wanted to address my post with the second pararaph, why wait nearly two hours? Since the motive of this post clearly wasn't to adress my post, it must lie withing the first paragrapgh. The first paragrapgh is just throwing some dirt onto me without stating explicit suspection. The motive behind it is to make me look worse. That, ladies and gentleman, is a scum motive. @LoneMeow: Could be more specific about what makes you think Aqua is town? What do you think about the case on him? Basically, it took me two hours to determine that you weren't coming back and wouldn't elaborate on that point on your own. If you were going to explain yourself without my prompting I wanted to give you that opportunity. Obviously you didn't, and I can't help but notice you haven't answered my question even now. @Jampidampi I'd still like you to answer my question. Rean I already knew when I left to sleep that Rean would be voting for me when I came back. Based on his earlier suspicions of me it's the obvious next step to sheep a case someone has obligingly made for him, regardless of his alignment. + Show Spoiler + On November 21 2013 03:04 Rean wrote: How unexpected. You're put under pressure and you instantly accuse me to try to prove me wrong about you, but 2 posts later you're already looking for arguments to back out of it like + Show Spoiler + On November 20 2013 16:48 Aquanim wrote: Short answer to Thrawn's case: I've been messing around a bit and not committing much because I'm concerned, having looked at the players who are yet to post, that if we present them with a fait accompli lynch on Corazon they'd just sheep and we'd learn nothing about them today. I figured that by holding off on my vote and being able to address them from a position of neutrality I might be able to get something out of them. Obviously this plan has backfired, but I figure if you're going to come after me that gives them an interesting choice to make so hopefully we'll still get something useful out of them. For the same reason, I voted Rean above for the purposes of running a second wagon and introducing a choice. I'd cheerfully vote Corazon as well, his failure to actually vote for sciberbia despite his constant accusations is pretty damning. This, combined with what Thrawn already said (not gonna waste time parroting), really gives me a bad feeling about you. Enough for a ##Vote: Aquanim Some other things I really want to adress: Apparently I'm his second strongest scumread, yet all he's done is ask me a single question very early on in the thread. He has made practically no effort to actually do anything about his "second strongest scum-read". I don't like this at all. Please do explain Sciberbia. That he, compared to Mocsta going around calling people "confirmed town" and naming scumteams 5 posts in, seemed to be taking it easy and more the "is most likely to be scum" route. In hindsight held back is probably not the phrase I'm looking for but you know what I mean. Okay. 1) I'm not backing out of my read on Rean, I'm quite confident he is scum. At the time, I was quite confident on both him and Corazon being scum, and since there were already votes on Corazon I decided I'd vote for Rean to pressure him too. I don't see what problem anybody has with that. 2) "Haven't done anything about my second-strongest scumread"? I put a vote on Rean after satisfying myself he wasn't going to contribute anything meaningful without a nudge, and then he hadn't come back and replied by the time I went to sleep so there was nothing further to do. Corazon I also figured Corazon's vote was coming, my wagon being a nice alternative to his. + Show Spoiler + On November 21 2013 01:16 cDgCorazon wrote: On Aqua (again): My problem with Aquanim is that he goes from a very neutral stance on me: To an all-out "he's scum!" stance without really having a transition between the two stances. It really troubles me that this was only after all of the cases on me came out. It just looks like Aqua just wants to follow thread sentiment for the big issues and branch out only for things related to his "reads". For example, his case on Rean screams to me that he wants to attack Rean for defending me. His case is weak and he blatantly lies about Rean's questioning of him and calls them not important when in fact he failed to read the reason they were asked in the first place: It's obvious that Aquanim did not read the reason that Rean threw out this post and simply calls Rean scummy for asking this question. This was a good post because Rean wanted to continue discussion and get a read on Aqua who he had felt was not contributing enough information and enough opinions to the conversation. The fact that Aqua calls this scummy is absurd and can only be attributed to his own scumminess. TL;DR Changes opinion on me to follow thread sentiment Attacks Rean (and says his question about town/scum reads accomplishes nothing when in fact it does) for defending me This guy is scum I'm confident enough in this case to throw a ##Vote: Aquanim out. 1) I changed my opinion on Corazon because new information arose (in this case, that there continued to be no purpose behind his case on sciberbia) 2) I believe my actual stated opinion on Rean's question was that it was an easy question for scum to ask - which is in fact true. I don't claim it accomplished nothing - it is indeed a question I ask often as town. It is a question I would ask often if I was scum, too. The point was that that question was Rean's ONLY attempt to draw information out of the thread, which gives me no reason to think he's town. 3) This guy isn't scum and 4) It's interesting (and scummy) that all of Corazon's reasons for thinking I'm scum are in some way linked to "attacking Corazon" or "attacking people defending Corazon". Rayn I don't think there was anything in particular new to address from rayn's vote. If anyone has anything further for me to adress I'll be around to answer. On November 21 2013 09:19 Aquanim wrote: As far as I can tell, your entire 'pressure' of sciberbia is calling him out for calling you his second-strongest scumread and then not following that up. Which is a pretty piss-poor excuse for scumhunting on your part. This reads more to me like you being concerned that you're listed as a scumread. @Rean: Do you seriously think sciberbia is scum? Why or why not? And calling out LoneMeow for lurking? Please. Calling out lurkers is the easiest game there is. I don't see any actual effort from you here either. On November 21 2013 10:42 Aquanim wrote: To be honest I'm now more confident in Rean scum than Corazon. Before I went to sleep, pretty much the sum total of Corazon's play was some half-assed push on sciberbia without a vote, which I considered scummy. I'm having some trouble reconciling with but that is the kind of contradiction which I could believe a townie would make. Since then, however, Corazon's posting has improved somewhat - he's talking about a larger variety of things in the thread and looks more like he's trying to be productive and useful. I'm still not convinced since a fair bit of his volume is devoted to defending his statements rather than doing anything proactive, but that's understandable given how much he's being asked to defend himself. I don't see anything which convinces me as to his alignment either way. His apparent conviction that I'm scum is a pretty safe view to hold given the current state of the thread. Again, could just be a townie who agrees with other townies, or he could be scum hiding on the obvious wagon. Hard to tell. Summary of my read on Corazon: I can believe everything Corazon's done so far from a scum Corazon or a town Corazon, though I feel the scum explanation is more likely. I'd prefer to wait for another day to lynch him and try to put together a more conclusive read on him. I'd certainly prefer to lynch him before most people in this game. + Show Spoiler + And before someone shouts "Aqua is jumping off Corazon since the Cora wagon died down", and I know you want to, consider this: both you and I are evaluating Corazon's alignment based on the same information. If both of us shift our opinion about Corazon, that's not me sheeping you - that's me chainging my opinion based on the same information as you. As for Rean, since I put my vote on him his contributions have been: 1) jumping on my wagon, which he was pretty much obliged to 2) making some shitty point against sciberbia and then defending it against all and sundry - the fact that this point is based around sciberbia having a scum read on Rean is a black mark in my opinion, attacking someone for giving them a scumread is a typical scum move 3) calling out LoneMeow lurking, which as I've said is really, really easy for scum to do Again, I have no conclusive evidence that Rean is scum, but I'm more confident about him than Corazon. His point against sciberbia really smells to me. They're both coming after me with a fair dose of confirmation-bias/deliberate-obtuseness, so there's that too. As regards the other two: JarJarDrinks - Original case on Mocsta was not really airtight but not having been there at the time I can understand his argument, even if I don't agree with it. - Overall he's putting his viewpoint into the thread and defending it effectively when queried. - He's seeking clarification from Corazon about Cora's original argument against sciberbia, which was indeed unclear. i.e. trying to understand what's going on in the game, when he could have just ignored it and carried on. Major town points. Conclusion: Likely town. Onegu - First post is clearly based on a quick scan of the thread rather than in-depth analysis. I don't know that I'd take it too seriously. - Suspicion of Mocsta's "thread captaining" is weird, it's not an argument I'd have made and I don't find it convincing. Plenty of townies make arguments I don't find convincing though, so meh. - Put a lot of work into replying to Mocsta's wallpost, but given how useless that was I don't give it town points. - Other than that, not a whole lot of effort. Conclusion: Definitely need to see more effort. If it's not forthcoming, I think he's a decent lynch today, though I'd still prefer Rean or maybe Cora. If he does offer some more reads, activity, etc. I think he could then at least wait for another day. At this point my lynch is looking quite likely. However, I'm still a townie and I can still be useful to you. If I go and do something on my own initiative at this point, I reckon whatever it is I'm going to get jumped on by eager scum and confirmation-biased townies. I can still do that if that's what you'd prefer. I think I can accomplish more if you ask me questions. That way, since you all have the initiative about what I talk about, I won't get jumped on for every post I make for "trying to redirect discussion" or some such rubbish. At this point, Mocsta and sciberbia, I think this is mostly on you - everyone else here either doesn't want to talk to me or is just lurking. What would you like to talk to me about? On November 21 2013 11:21 Aquanim wrote: Do you think it would make more sense for Rean to avoid talking to you about your scumread? Confronting a read like that head-on and attacking is something I've seen scum do before. (For example, IIRC Spicydinosaur's scum play in NMM XLIII looked quite similar in that regard - when FirmTofu expressed a slight suspicion of him Spicydinosaur attacked him vehemently over it. In particular, Spicydinosaur didn't try to actually refute FT's points against him, but preferred to directly attack FT's play instead. This feels similar to Rean's play here.) Read the above quotes. Does it really look like Aquanim has stopped pushing his reads? | ||
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On November 21 2013 11:37 Rean wrote: I don't like this Onegu bandwagon. Feels to me like it's an attempt to drive away the lynch from Aquanim to an easy to lynch target. While his posting is certainly scummy it could just be legitimately bad play. However he's still a better bet than most. So. Damn. wishy-washy. Flips his stance 3 times over 2 lines. And as Aquanim points out (in another good post), why is Rean complaining about Onegu being an 'easy lynch target' if his posting is 'certainly scummy'? Honestly I think there's a good chance they are both scum. | ||
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On November 21 2013 12:02 raynpelikoneet wrote: Okay let's talk about this. First quote - He sums up where he is and says why people voted for him (???). Second quote - Repeats my question (which has been answered) to Rean. Calls him out for calling out lurkers (nothing alignment indicative). Asks if Rean thinks scib is still scummy. Third quote - null read on Cora, leaning scum on Rean (ofc), townread on JJD, weird read on Onegu. Then the "please tell me what to say" bullshit Fourth quote - justifying his scumread with what someone else did in some other game. So, in conclusion, he gives out one townread and one scumread, two null reads. Repeats said arguments, and talks bullshit or gives bad reasons for someone to be scum. Where does he actually scumhunt? Where does he attempt to find out more on anyone? His vote is on a guy he is "leaning scum on", to me that reads it's not even a strong scumread. So yes, he is pushing his read, but for bad reasons. @rayn So he is pushing his reads. You just don't like them. Now look at Onegu's filter. He has pretty similar reads (rean and cora), but doesn't push them at all. If exactly one of the two is scum which do you think it is? I feel pretty strongly that it would be Onegu. | ||
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Scum agenda: lynch ANYONE but me (or my scumbuddies) Town agenda: pinpoint a scum and lynch him The easiest way to tell which agenda aquanim is pursuing is by looking at how interested he is in who exactly gets lynched other than him. Due to his posts on Cora, Rean, and Onegu, it looks to me like it is interested in who precisely his counterwagon is, which is indicative of a town mindset. | ||
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On November 21 2013 12:26 raynpelikoneet wrote: Now i would not say that. Look again into his conclusions. Not sure what you're trying to suggest. His conclusion seems to be Rean > Onegu > Cora > others. I don't see anything terribly suspicious about those conclusions. What do you expect him to do? Come up with town reads on all the other lynch candidates? They are lynch candidates for a reason. It only makes sense that he would find them all scummy to some degree. The point is that he has at least looked into them and has clear preferences among them. | ||
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On November 21 2013 12:59 raynpelikoneet wrote: sciberbia could you share some insight in why are you so eager to defend Aquanim and why do you think he can't defend himself? In my opinion you should be trying to convince us to lynch Onegu as he seems to be your top lynch target. Instead of doing that you defend aqua - defend aqua - point out Rean's bad post - defend aqua. The dude can defend himself if he is town, it's not your job. Your job is - if you are town - to tell us why lynching Onegu is the right way to go in case you think he is the best lynch. atm you are doing anything else but that. Kinda makes me wonder why? @Rayn Until Onegu comes back to the thread there isn't anything else to say about him. Pretty much everyone, except Bereft, agrees with me that he is scummy. So my only recourse in my attempt to get Onegu lynched is to try to convince you that Aquanim is not scummy. @Bereft I see where you are coming from with the read on Onegu but I disagree with your conclusion. Onegu fooled me as scum in my previous game with him (Desert Mini) due to the same calm "don't give a fuck what you guys think -- not afraid to take heat" air about him. He's definitely capable of doing that as scum. I agree with what Cora said above. His lack of caring about the lynch is defintely more of a scumtell than a towntell. | ||
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As I already mentioned Onegu does not play scum scared. Read his Desert Mini filter if you must. If I recall correctly he states there is a good chance hapa/marv are scum on day 1, and suggests they be analyzed. Rean lynch is probably also OK. I'll consolidate on Rean if it comes down to him and Aquanim. And I see you've written another case on me. Guess I'll respond to that next | ||
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On November 21 2013 15:03 Mocsta wrote: - Picking on Corazon early game, whilst ignoring you and I for similar toned posts He phrases it as a conversation starter, but its pretty clear it is shit-stirring. This is the most ridiculous thing. How hard is it to believe that of the posts so far I thought Cora's was the scummiest? Are you trying to argue your's was scummier? Your's was completely unalazyable because it was the first post of the thread and if you are scum you had 2 hours to think about what to post there so it's completely wifom. As I already said, Bereft's was clearly more attention-grabby. I can't understand how you see it as shit stirring. + Show Spoiler + On November 21 2013 15:03 Mocsta wrote: - Scibs also states he hates early game trolling, yet is contributing to a negative atmosphere. THink about this: he stated Corazon was scum off what he defined later as 99% null, 1% scummy. Its clearly an over reaction and all it does is force people to point fingers at each other ==> atmosphere scum love. What the fuck are you talking about? I said Cora was scummiest so far. Not that he was scum. There is a huge difference. How you think I'm creating a scum-favored atmosphere with my posting is beyond me. Either you're scum or you're see ghosts that aren't there. + Show Spoiler + On November 21 2013 15:03 Mocsta wrote: - His case on Corazon is terrible. #2 is acceptable because a majority misread corazon intentions #1 is terrible because scibs is a hypocrite for singling out corazon but further, he is calling corazon scummy for being bad, there is nothing about scum motive in this point #3 - is just a weak point Overall this case is calling corazon a bad townie, and relies on the reader to assume the points are scummy. This is a sign of a poor/half-assed case.. yet. scibs said i stole his thunder when i said corazon was scummy. His actions are not congruent with filter. Err before you said points 1 and 3 were good and 2 was terrible... Regarding point 1, I'm not a hypocrite. And there is scum motivation as I outlined. To discredit me specifically so scum!Cora doesn't come under pressure. Regarding point 3, it's not weak at all. Cora originally said you can't make reads off the first page. And he supposedly had a genuine scum read on me as he was writing that (?). Does that make sense from a town perspective? No it doesn't. A more likely explanation is that he didn't have any reads at all (because scum) and that's why he had no problem writing "you can't make reads on the first page". + Show Spoiler + On November 21 2013 15:03 Mocsta wrote: - Scibs is suddenly suspicous of Rean, but asks such a baseless question that is not alignment-indicative. Again, this is not congruent with being a genuine scum read Not sure what you're talking about. I wasn't 'suddenly' suspicious of him. I was suspicious of him since the start of the game. I asked questions to probe for information, which helped me develop my scum read. You're just asserting without any evidence that the questions were baseless and non alignment-indicative and you are in fact wrong. + Show Spoiler + On November 21 2013 15:03 Mocsta wrote: - Scibs has a really odd timed delurked to chat with jampidampi. In this convo he avoids discussing the interplay between rean/aqua - which makes ZERO sense if rean was his 2nd scum read. This is a *very* bad point It was like 4 in the morning and as I was nodding off to sleep I saw jampi enter the thread. As Cora was my strongest read I wanted his thoughts. If I had infinite time I would have partaken in discussion with Rean and Cora but unfortunately I do not. You're just looking at my whole filter with extreme bias, malicious or not, and coming up with the worst possible explanation for everything I do, even if there's no evidence for it. I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on this post. | ||
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On November 21 2013 15:27 Mocsta wrote: I am aware of this, but I don't find it applicable? It's applicable because your sole reason for your town-read on Onegu is that it would be "suicide" for him to call you and thrawn scum, assuming that he is scum and you are both town. Given that you know he isn't scared of anyone as scum, doesn't that invalidate your reason for thinking he can't be scum? Please explain your thought process more. | ||
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On November 21 2013 15:44 Mocsta wrote: My thoughts are that you are overly defensive in this retort. I can easily add quotes to support my points. In the end I provided those points because bereft asked me for them. My vote today is on rean. I'm quite content with you for a day2 lynch err no you can't easily add quotes to support your points. Saying you can doesn't make it true. But whatever -- I'm not interested in lynching you today so we can revisit this tomorrow I guess. | ||
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I'm not fully caught up, but just look at the thread atmosphere when rayn 'martyrs' himself and starts causing a ruckus. The majority of the votes were on Rean and Aquanim, and rayn wasn't even in the conversation of lynch candidates. Rayn's not a noob. He doesn't play to lose. He had to know that what he was saying was going to be unpopular. It doesn't make any sense as scum for him to make a bunch of bold assertions, vote himself, and generally just draw negative attention. The only way this makes ANY sense at all is if Rean is also scum, but even then it wouldn't help for rayn to get himself lynched. I don't really see it. Onegu is still the best lynch.. Onegu's only contribution since last night is a giant readdddz post where he votes Mocsta, and seems to content to be ignored, and hasn't posted since. Onegu does not seem to care about who gets lynched, and he's avoided discussing it with the town. @everyone in the thread right now explain the scum motivation for rayn throwing a bunch of shit and even voting himself just as it looked like Rean was going to be lynched. Also, explain ANYTHING you have seen in Onegu's play that makes you think he is town. | ||
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On November 22 2013 04:45 cDgCorazon wrote: I really do not like Rayn martyring...tbh the concept of martyring has been beaten to death and I think he's just using it as a ploy to gain town cred. This is trying to apply a scumtell to a situation where it doesn't apply at all. If you have 8 votes on you then maybe martyrying is a scumtell, but rayn hardly had any pressure on him when he started trampling through the thread and voting himself. Read rayn's filter from the last 12 hours and tell me he has been trying to "gain town cred". He has been doing the complete opposite by pissing everybody off. Cora is reallly reaching hard here to justify his vote. I'd be happy with a Cora lynch if anybody prefers him to Onegu. | ||
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On November 22 2013 10:00 raynpelikoneet wrote: Also do not EVER let people push lynches on people who defended me. Like Cora, Onegu, scib. That's bullshit. They are right, they know what they are talking about. NEVER LET MOCSTA LYNCH THOSE PPL BASED ON "YOU KNEW RAYN WAS TOWN" WHICH HE IS GONNA TRY! You know Cora's vote is on you right now, right? | ||
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On November 22 2013 10:00 Aquanim wrote: His reads are changing from post to post, there's no consistency to them at all, let alone a single unified tunnel-visioned argument. And if his reads are changing from one post to the next, I can't see how you can claim he has ridiculous conviction in this game, even if he claims he does. On November 22 2013 10:01 Bereft wrote: @scib, i will agree that my stance on onegu has changed since yesterday and he's been completely useless. but i don't think he's a better lynch than rayn at the moment. i can't find any aspect of rayn's posting rational as a townie, and i've tried. i don't care if shit flinging is his usual style of playing. the bottom line is that there is no townie SENSE or LOGIC behind any of his shit flinging in this case. it does not make any sense for him to behave like this. @Aquanim, Bereft You could apply these descriptions of his play even more accurately to past games where he was town. Here are some quotes from rayn's filter on D1 of ego mini mafia where he is town. Notice that he somehow has ridiculous conviction in his reads, even though they are changing almost every half hour. And oftentimes he didn't even give a reason. + Show Spoiler [rayn] + On April 05 2013 09:22 raynpelikoneet wrote: Sciberbia wants to claim or fakeclaim a miller. ggyo. ::E Vote: Sciberbia On April 05 2013 09:25 raynpelikoneet wrote: kill WoS? better? On April 05 2013 09:45 raynpelikoneet wrote: oh fuck, just kill sciberbia. and then WoS. GG. On April 05 2013 09:55 raynpelikoneet wrote: ##Unvote: sciberbia ##Vote: WaveOfShadow On April 05 2013 10:36 raynpelikoneet wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: iamperfection On April 05 2013 10:44 raynpelikoneet wrote: Can we kill WoS? On April 05 2013 10:51 raynpelikoneet wrote: ##Unvote: iamperfection ##Vote: Wave Of Shadow guaranteed scum D1. On April 05 2013 11:02 raynpelikoneet wrote: ##Unvote: Wave Of Shadow ##Vote: AxleGreaser Okay this is the best lynch. Look at his lat post rofl. On April 05 2013 11:47 raynpelikoneet wrote: sry. iwas kinda fucked up. ##Unvote: AxleGreaser ##Vote: Wave of Shadow On April 06 2013 10:56 raynpelikoneet wrote: ##Unvote ##Vote: sciberbia On April 06 2013 11:01 raynpelikoneet wrote: yeah sciberia is mafia, can we just kill him? On April 07 2013 03:33 raynpelikoneet wrote: I'm starting to think WoS is actually town.. Cna we lynch sci? On April 07 2013 08:40 raynpelikoneet wrote: Okay, i want to kill Ace... Here's a link to the full filter: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=406168&user=raynpelikoneet | ||
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On November 22 2013 10:12 thrawn2112 wrote: hey i want to know what happens if I do this ##unvote ##Vote: corazon his reason for his vote is worse than anyone else's Let's do it. Apparently nobody likes my Onegu wagon for some reason. ##unvote ##vote: corazon @rayn Please join this wagon. That makes 3 votes. Need 4 more. | ||
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I'm thinking town on Aquanim based on reasons stated earlier and I have more important things to do right now then dig through obs QT's of one of my townier reads. I will look at him when I have time tonight but right now his lynch is not on the table. If you don't want to get lynched I suggest you join the Cora wagon. | ||
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@thrawn, Mocsta, rayn, Holyflare, Onegu(?), Cora(?), anyone not wanting a rayn lynch We need a god-damn counter wagon. Compromises have to be made -- not everybody can lynch their top choice. I started a wagon on Onegu which nobody would join. Thrawn and I started a wagon on Cora and thrawn jumped off. You guys need to put some votes down and consolidate. | ||
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On November 22 2013 10:30 thrawn2112 wrote: lol we shoudl random lynch. this thread is never going to compromise I feel like Cora, Onegu, and Rean are far and away better lynches than rayn. Maybe I'll just look like an idiot if rayn flips red, but his filter is like 10 pages and at least he's here right now trying to force his will upon us. Where are Cora, Onegu, and Rean? Nowhere to be seen. Now that there's no pressure on them to post they're all laying low and doing nothing to help us secure a good lynch at this crucial hour. Lynching rayn over all of them doesn't sit right with me at all. | ||
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No shit Onegu has shown no interest in the lynch today. WHERE IS YOUR VOTE? | ||
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On November 22 2013 10:48 thrawn2112 wrote: Sorry guys I don't like onegu lynch either ##unvote and I will not vote again unless I've thought about it for more than 10 seconds. zzzzzzzz. Dude if you think rayn is town you need to vote somebody else. If you keep voting and unvoting no counter wagon's ever going to start and rayn's going to get lynched by default. What don't you like about an Onegu lynch? | ||
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On November 22 2013 10:59 Bereft wrote: scib, here's the thing. i am not unwilling to compromise. it's not like i have no doubt in my mind. but rayn is not just my strongest read -- i don't see any value in keeping him around. as i stated when i voted for him, i think he's incredibly antitown with a terribly off-putting attitude. of course that attitude is gone now that he's under fire, but i think the way he busted into this thread on his high horse around page 33 is unacceptable. if you can give me a strong case on why rayn is town and worth keeping around and why onegu/rean/cora are a better lynch, i will consider it. @Bereft I can't make a strong case that rayn is town, as I'm honestly not sure what to expect from a scum rayn, but I do think that everything I've seen from him this game town rayn is capable of doing. Also I don't like the idea of lynching someone because "if he's town then he's worthless so it's a win-win". I dislike it in general. And specifically to rayn, if this helps you not lynch him, the last two times I've played with town rayn he has contributed significantly to town after questionable day 1's. There's nothing more for me to say about onegu, cora, and rean as they are all NOT HERE, which should be telling. What is holding you back from lynching them? | ||
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But you guys really need to put your votes down. This is the problem with not having a counterwagon. Now we are just lynching rayn because we have no choice, not because that many people even think he's a good lynch. | ||
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I'll move my vote in a few minutes if we still have no other consolidation. | ||
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##Vote: raynpelikoneet | ||
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gg rayn | ||
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1) Can you explain what you were talking about in this post? How exactly did you think rayn was trying to gain town cred by going on a rampage and martyring himself? On November 22 2013 04:45 cDgCorazon wrote: I really do not like Rayn martyring...tbh the concept of martyring has been beaten to death and I think he's just using it as a ploy to gain town cred. 2) If you think it would have been beneficial to scum to keep rayn alive yesterday EVEN given that he is town, why would you not vote for him yesterday? Surely if you think lynching town!rayn would be bad for scum, then it would be good for town? And if he flipped scum even better, right? I don't see how you reconcile voting for no lynch with claiming that it would have been better for scum to no-lynch yesterday. | ||
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Rean remains scummy and has barely posted in 2 days. I'd like to assume he wouldn't lie about having being bedridden, but if he maintains his current level of (in)activity we will have no choice but to lynch him. Cora also has a good chance of being scum. This HF claim is so stupid I don't even know what to think about it. | ||
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Are you sticking with your doctor claim? And who did you save? Did you actually save thrawn? | ||
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On November 23 2013 12:06 Holyflare wrote: Like i said earlier "i think thrawn is very towny" so he was my most likely save, if i get vigd and flip doctor you then knew who my heal was on and so it stops any attempted shenanigans that scum can pull. He should get free town cred by way of this. If it gets to night 2 however and a double shot happens then seriously reconsider etc etc. That was my line of thought anyway Did you consider changing your prot target given that half the thread saw your doctor claim? Do you really think scum would have shot thrawn after you said you saved him? | ||
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On November 23 2013 12:04 cDgCorazon wrote: Scum didn't kill. I'm pretty confident in that fact. They are very certain that today's lynch will be town, which would fall in line with their decision to lynch Rayn and not have him be lynched today. So what's your conclusion here? That Onegu & Rean are town? | ||
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sciberbia
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Thrawn I think you just have some sort of mental block regarding Aquanim. Either it's confirmation bias or you just don't like the way he talks idk. I pretty much agree with all of his reads and everything he's said this entire game. I can't really see a scum player being so inside my head. You two are probably my strongest townreads and I strongly think we should look elsewhere. So here are the people I'd consider lynching today (same list as Aquanim): Cora, Onegu, rean, holyflare, jamp holyflare's claim is sketchy as hell and we definitely do need to grill him about it. But lynching a claimed doctor on the day he claims (before LYLO) doesn't make a whole ton of sense especially because scum might have two shots for tomorrow. So even if they shoot him he could make a save. If two people die then we'd have to very seriously consider lynching him D3. Rean and jamp literally have not posted more than once in like 2 days I think. Between the two I think what there is of Rean's filter is significantly scummier, and depending on what he does (or doesn't do) today he could very realistically be the best lynch. I thought Onegu looked slightly better for interacting with the thread for once, until he started talking about how it would be best to martyr himself. I want to see these cases on Bereft and Mocsta. Cora I'm still leaning scum on and I'd be willing to lynch him today, but only if the above players demonstrate some towniness. Also we need to get this question answered now Will players such as Rean and jamp be modkilled or replaced if they do not vote today? | ||
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Lynching outside of those 4 doesn't make a lot of sense to me as the rest of the players are much more active/useful and also happen to be less likely to be scum imo. | ||
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Sure. Here's some more exposition on what makes Rean scummy to me. + Show Spoiler [Rean] + On November 20 2013 13:36 Rean wrote: Aquanim, you're constantly asking but never saying much about what you think. Gimme one town and one scum and reasons why please. On November 20 2013 13:43 Rean wrote: An observation, it don't say much about his alignment. But I'm curious as to his answer. I don't like Rean's start to the game. He looked to content to hover around the thread and not actually do anything. For example, what is the point of the bolded sentence above? He comes to no conclusion about Aquanim's alignment, but throws out some general remark about his play. I don't like it because it's dirt-throwy and I just don't see any reason to include that sentence as town. I see two motivations as scum: look like you are paying attention / doing something and throwing dirt at Aquanim. + Show Spoiler [calls me scummy] + On November 20 2013 13:57 Rean wrote: Persuasive...it's a good argument. Sciberbia was being more laidback, trying to avoid comitting to anything, so it definitely makes him look scummy. Overall the kind of argument that gets discussion started and gets us somewhere useful, I quite like it. Guess persuasive would be a decent way to describe it. He has to be practically talked into his first read. He calls me scummy only when specifically asked to comment. His play in this post and in general feels reactive and not proactive. Repeatedly calling out lurkers on D1 is typical of scum in my experience. There really isn't anything to say about them. They're lurking. It's obvious. But if scum feel some heat they may try to shift the spotlight elsewhere. And there's nobody easier to criticize than people who haven't posted at all. + Show Spoiler [excessive attention to lurkers] + On November 20 2013 14:00 Rean wrote: Strongest doesnt say much atm since 5 out of 12 have been silent so far but I'm not feeling so good about you for reasons I already explained. On November 21 2013 04:37 Rean wrote: Other than that, Lonemeow is lurking hard. Whether he's simply not around or choosing to lay low I don't know but I want to hear some more. On November 21 2013 09:08 Rean wrote: Of course. I definitely didn't attempt to pressure 2 others (scib, already explained why 500 times + LoneMeow who is still lurking it up) while keeping my vote on you. On November 20 2013 15:50 Rean wrote: .... And the lack of 5 people is rather disappointing still. + Show Spoiler + On November 20 2013 15:50 Rean wrote: Smartass comment that I couldn't resist: + Show Spoiler + On November 20 2013 15:28 Mocsta wrote:post 10 On November 20 2013 15:29 Mocsta wrote:post 12 consider getting one of these, you could use it :3 ![[image loading]](http://imgur.com/4t8oM40) More seriously: Mocsta, good post by post analysis but I don't agree with it all. Your points on both Scib and Corazon make sense but I think you're falling into the "he must be scum so I'll try to interpret everything he says as scummy" trap a little with Cora. In particular: + Show Spoiler + On November 20 2013 13:24 cDgCorazon wrote: He's trying to get us to tunnel each other early so he can just sit around and piggyback on town lynches and point the finger at others. This is demonstrated when he essentially copies my post asking thrawn if he was a mason (deliberately, his post was at least 2-3 minutes after mine) and then decides that he can take my words and twist them when I pressure him about it. This is what troubles me about sciberia right now. I also want to see Aquanim under a bit of pressure to see how he reacts but let's not do everything at once. And the lack of 5 people is rather disappointing still. This post has been covered. He agrees with Mocsta's conclusions but then accuses Mocsta of confirmation bias in coming to those conclusions. Seems awkward from a townie perspective. As I said before, one thing I do find townie is his irritation at me calling him scum and his insistence that I explain myself. + Show Spoiler [scummy post] + On November 21 2013 11:37 Rean wrote: I don't like this Onegu bandwagon. Feels to me like it's an attempt to drive away the lynch from Aquanim to an easy to lynch target. While his posting is certainly scummy it could just be legitimately bad play. However he's still a better bet than most. Aquanim is still going around repeating points that have already been answered and I feel the same. But I'm scared I might be tunneling too hard so I'll go reread his filter with an open mind. Sciberbia...while your reasoning is anything but original, it's understandable so not gonna push that read on me any further. I don't like though that you're yet again trying to go for someone already mentioned (Onegu). Why is that everyone here is so anxious about me mentioning lurkers though? It seems to me like with your attitudes you automatically assume anyone that mentions lurkers ever is scum, but that way people can get away with lurking hard and not contributing a god damn thing. I find it really fishy that both Aqua and Scib seem so paranoid of me for trying to call out lurkers >.> He's wishy washy and seems scared to take a firm stand on anything in this post. Is he calling me scum or not? I don't really know. He kinda is but kinda isn't. Is he calling Onegu scum or not? He kinda is but kinda isn't. Even Aquanim he is hedging his bets on. Why does he not like this Onegu wagon at all? Reasoning is flimsy. | ||
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sciberbia
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I'm unconvinced by your case on Bereft. Here are a few problems I see with it. Convince me I'm wrong. In the post where you made a case on Mocsta, you quoted Mocsta's case on Cora, but the quoting was messed up so I assume Bereft must have read it as YOUR case on Cora with a case on Mocsta tacked on the end. I guess this proves that he wasn't reading very closely, but I don't see how this makes him scum. Your post was hard to follow. He basically said that he couldn't understand what you were talking about at all so he probably only skimmed it and assumed it was your case + vote on Cora. It's not true that he never mentions Rean again. He has mentioned rean as someone we should consider lynching today. I don't blame him for not saying more about rean as rean has literally not been posting so it's hard to talk about him. I just went through Rean's filter for Aquanim and I had trouble finding things that weren't already beaten to death. On November 23 2013 22:31 Onegu wrote: And I hate this post he tunneled rayn the entire time, gives reasons why he was ok to lynch him even if he wasnt scum, then says yeah hindsight it was a bad lynch. This would be a valid point if the bolded were true, but I don't think it is. Bereft never said lynching a town rayn would be good for town, as far as I can recall. | ||
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You've stated that you thought claiming doctor would allow us NOT to focus on you today, but that reasoning is pretty dubious to me. Did you really expect everyone to be like "oh OK HF is confirmed doc"? Surely you anticipated people would heavily question your claim right? How do you think this helps town? Also, reiterating my question from before, did you not consider switching your prot target from thrawn when it was clear that a bunnch of players saw your claim? If scum shot at all last night, wouldn't it likely have been someone other than thrawn given that chances are they saw your claim? And finally, can you explain how thrawn was your strongest townread after you seem to have suspicion of him in these posts? On November 22 2013 12:59 Holyflare wrote: Thrawn also quite clearly posted in bold and all caps that rayn was most definitely town and also voted him. So there's that too. On November 22 2013 13:00 Holyflare wrote: Let me break this down for everyone else: Onegu posts that rayn is town, onegu knows rayn's meta (thrawn and mocsta know this) Mocsta sees onegu is afk, doesn't try and confirm rayn's meta to people, policy lynches him Thrawn, calls rayn obviously towny, lynches him Aqua, ignores everything rayn says, policy lynches him At least 1 of you is scum | ||
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On November 24 2013 09:31 Mocsta wrote: - Terrible case on CorazonI My case was not terrible at all. If you are town you are clearly looking at D1 with absurd confirmation bias. When you originally read my case on Cora, you liked points 1 and 3, but didn't like point 2. Then later when you called me scum, you completely reversed this assessment of my case. Also you called cora 90% scum on D1 and now you say his D1 makes him 100% town. Consider that you are looking at the exact same evidence and coming to the opposite conclusion. That's because you are deciding on a conclusion first and fitting the evidence to it afterwards. You need to clear your head and consider evidence objectively. On November 24 2013 09:31 Mocsta wrote: - Came in and gave a town read on Rayn, and then semi-AFK'd, he stated he wanted Onegu lynched as a priority but it was clear he was happy playing second-fiddle If you think I was happy with a rayn lynch then you need to reread my filter. This is again you fitting evidence to a conclusion rather than a conclusion to evidence. On November 24 2013 09:31 Mocsta wrote: - Gives a defense of Bereft; and if Onegu was his best scum read, *SHOULD* have followed through with why Onegu is intentionally misrepresenting play and why Onegu is the best lynch for today. What Aquanim said. I don't know 100% that Onegu is scum or I'd be voting him instead of questioning him. When talking to somebody to try to determine their alignment I am going to question them as if they are town. Obviously I'm not going to get Onegu to admit he is scum so why shout at him. + Show Spoiler [Mocsta's Onegu defense] + On November 24 2013 07:55 Mocsta wrote: A couple things (1) I'm leaning towards town being Onegu, a. I've never seen a scum Onegu make a case b. Even though its poorly written, I can see understand what he is fixated on. Scibs, I actually disagree with your point of view regarding the interpretation of Oengu original Mocsta case. Yes, it was poorly written and extremely easy to skim over and misinterpret. However, the issue is that Bereft decided to analyse that post in order to give a town read on somebody. Do you not find it odd that someone would only "skim/barely read" a post in order to give out such an important read. Consider further that this was the most important content in Onegu filter at the time. Also your reasons for thinking Onegu are town are really wrong. In the 1 game I played with him he made several cases as scum. Also the bolded is just simply not what happened. Bereft analyzed the rest of his filter and gave a town read. He chose NOT to analyze that huge post. | ||
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Desert Mini Mafia. Cases on sylencia and sn0_man at various points in the game iirc. Not as large as his case on bereft but imo they were stronger cases analytically. @Aquanim, Cora How likely do you think Mocsta is to be scum? I wasn't a big fan of his D1, and his D2 so far looks pretty troubling to me. + Show Spoiler + On November 24 2013 09:26 Mocsta wrote: I'm not happy with how this cycle has started. Theres been a couple cases - resulting in delurks to dismiss (e.g. Scibs to Onegu); but in my opinion, no one has seriously tried to drive the thread towards a lynch. Maybe the weekend is a valid excuse - heck I was busy as, yesterday; and somewhat today. However, I still expect town to make check-ins (much like I did yesterday). Its not hard, is it? This leads to be disappointed people like Rean/jampidampi are non-existent, and in particular, players like JJD/Bereft have barely posted. The game is not solved, everyone needs to step up and contribute more: query posts, build cases, push a scum target So he gives a lecture about how we all need to step it up and get a scum lynch today. But then what does he proceed to do? Do a massive post-by-post analysis 'proving' how Cora is TOWN. + Show Spoiler + On November 24 2013 09:31 Mocsta wrote: I obviously haven't had a chance to look into Scibs filter in detail (or at all) since i was consumed with Corazon. Things I remember from Scibs - Terrible case on Corazon - Came in and gave a town read on Rayn, and then semi-AFK'd, he stated he wanted Onegu lynched as a priority but it was clear he was happy playing second-fiddle - Gives a defense of Bereft; and if Onegu was his best scum read, *SHOULD* have followed through with why Onegu is intentionally misrepresenting play and why Onegu is the best lynch for today. Essentially 2 cycles in a row, Scibs is happy emailing everyone a bulletin of his intentions and doing nothing to campaign for them. ##Unvote ##Vote: Sciberbia If someone wants to filter dive him whilst I'm gone, and prove otherwise - go ahead. until that point in time, he is most definitely the best lynch for today. Then he puts about 10% of that effort into a bad, half-assed case on me in which he admits he has't even reread my filter, and votes for me. So as I see it, he's writing a bad case about me without any real effort and I don't know if he really has a reasonable expectation of getting me lynched today. How can he conclude that I'm 'most definitely' the best lynch without even reading my filter? His talking about Cora and myself just side-tracked us even further. Also I find it suspicious how his reads flip-flop so hard that he never really commits to anything at all. First rayn was a policy lynch. Then he says 80% of the reason for voting rayn is because he thinks rayn is scum. And then after rayn flips town he says that it was always just a policy lynch. He keeps flip-flopping on me, Cora, Aquanim, Onegu.. pretty much every read and it's really hindering our progress, especially when he brings up old stuff and reverses his previous opinion on it. In conclusion, I think Mocsta could very well be scum and want some outside opnions of his cases on me and recent play. Do you think his vote on me looks like a townie move? | ||
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On November 24 2013 11:44 Holyflare wrote: Also @ scib. My actual thought process was that I have contributed nothing and likely couldn't till the end of the weekend, if I just tell them I'm actually the doctor right now scum can get rid of me instead of someone who contributes and it would avoid a lot of wasted effort on this day focusing on me. It doesn't matter who i saved really and who i announced because if I didn't die then they saved their kp for a double kill the next night. If by chance they missed what I said then thrawn was a likely target. Wait so you purposefully claimed doctor with time before the deadline in the hopes that scum would see your claim and shoot you last night? | ||
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sciberbia
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Claim aside, the rest of HF's play makes him likely scum. He was granted a new lease on life by not being shot and what has he done with it? Nothing really. Just rambling on about his claim being good for town. Doesn't seem to be making any effort to solve the game. Given that he expects to be dead soon this is pretty scummy. Still I think lynching him is a significantly worse play than lynching Onegu today. If he is the real doctor, that would be a HUGE mistake. But if he is scum, we don't really lose anything by lynching him tomorrow instead of today. So I'm inclined to think we should let him be for a day and hope he is either shot N2 or makes a save (or both). If neither we should probably lynch him tomorrow. One point really I liked from Cora's case was how Onegu initially showed suspicion on rayn, helping to build the pressure against him, but then changed his mind when a rayn wagon materialized, parked his vote on Mocsta and afk'd. The timing is pretty suspicious, because he helps build pressure against rayn, but then absolves himself from the townie lynch wagon, and blames the lynch on Mocsta and Bereft. This point on top of Onegu's mediocre Bereft case keeps him as the best lynch right now. I'm holding onto my vote for now but it will be on Onegu unless he convinces me otherwise. | ||
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Will rean/jamp be modkilled or replaced if they do not vote today? | ||
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On November 24 2013 15:46 Bereft wrote: @Cora - i find it weak, but i can see where he's coming from. @Sciberia - how does this relate to your thoughts on Mocsta? do you think it's possible they're scum together? Yea I'm still suspicous of Mocsta as well which makes me feel small misgivings about the Onegu lynch. Is it possible Onegu is town and has been right about Mocsta all along? It's a haunting possibility. But I also know that Onegu is a good scum player and likes to bus. I think it's possible they are scum together. Basically my thought process is like this; -- If both Onegu and Mocsta are scum, which I think is definitely possible, Onegu is a good lynch. -- If only one of them is scum, I think it's possible it's Mocsta, but it's more likely Onegu. So Onegu is a good lynch. -- If neither of them is scum my reads are kinda off but if I'm not gonna base my vote off my reads then what am I gonna base it on. I just have to trust in my reads. | ||
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United States1359 Posts
So here I am most definitely the best lynch today: + Show Spoiler + On November 24 2013 09:31 Mocsta wrote: I didn't think it would take 13minutes for a response. But whatevers, I obviously haven't had a chance to look into Scibs filter in detail (or at all) since i was consumed with Corazon. Things I remember from Scibs - Terrible case on Corazon - Came in and gave a town read on Rayn, and then semi-AFK'd, he stated he wanted Onegu lynched as a priority but it was clear he was happy playing second-fiddle - Gives a defense of Bereft; and if Onegu was his best scum read, *SHOULD* have followed through with why Onegu is intentionally misrepresenting play and why Onegu is the best lynch for today. Essentially 2 cycles in a row, Scibs is happy emailing everyone a bulletin of his intentions and doing nothing to campaign for them. ##Unvote ##Vote: Sciberbia If someone wants to filter dive him whilst I'm gone, and prove otherwise - go ahead. until that point in time, he is most definitely the best lynch for today. And here 4 hours later I'm not even in your top 4. + Show Spoiler + On November 24 2013 13:04 Mocsta wrote: I'm liking a lunch between jjd/onegu jampi/rean today. jampi/rean might be modkilled so I'm going to join and vote ##unvote ##votte: jarjardrinks Nobody "did a filter dive while you were gone" and proved I was town, so what's the reasoning for this? | ||
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sciberbia
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On November 24 2013 16:07 Mocsta wrote: but I'm surprised u think onegu is a good scum player? he enjoys playing scum,but skates by all his games by being allowed to useless as town or scum. hardly anything to be proud of. being able to 'skate by' is pretty good scum play, no? The objective of playing scum is to never get lynched. The one game I played with Onegu he was the sole surviving scum which won his team the game. On top of that, my personal read on him was town the entire game. So yea I think he's a good scum player. On November 24 2013 16:07 Mocsta wrote: what do you think regarding the discussion prompters I put up from berefts comments? Can you point me to the specific post? You've been talking to bereft a lot recently and I'm not sure which post you're referring to. | ||
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On November 24 2013 16:16 cDgCorazon wrote: Being scum and "skating by" isn't the sign of good scum play. It's the sign of either bad town play or just sheer luck. Being scum and actively pushing townie lynches and avoiding suspicion is good scum play. Scum win the game by not getting lynched. Not by actively pushing townie lynches and avoiding suspicion. Those things help, but in the end their win condition is to not get lynched, any way they can. So I consider skating by = good scum play. This is kinda irrelevant though so last I'm saying about it. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler [JJD] + On November 22 2013 11:07 JarJarDrinks wrote: WTF kind of response is this? I point out a direct contridiction and your response is "you have no idea how i play". WTF does that even mean? How you play is that you give someone a scumread and then use that exact same reasoning later to give them a townread? On November 22 2013 11:48 JarJarDrinks wrote: Did cora just walk in and take away a flip? Cora, you're really voting for no-lynch? These two posts were in the hour leading up to the lynch. These are his ONLY two posts in the 2.5 hours leading up to the lynch. This is really scummy. He cearly had the thread open, as he responded to a post from rayn and from Cora's vote. But he wasn't partaking in ANY of the discussion in the final hour of the rayn lynch. I remember that several of us were heatedly debating whether we should lynch onegu, cora, rayn. I remember our discussion as we tried to build a counter-wagon. It was pretty hectic. But JJD was just calmly watching it all? That strikes me as really scummy. Shouldn't he have been wanting to make his voice heard? He doesn't reassure people that rayn is the right lynch. He doesn't question the people calling rayn town. He doesn't express interest in any possible counter wagon. It looks like he's just happy to twiddle his thumbs as rayn gets lynched, which given that he flipped town is extremeley suspicious. Going to re-read the rest of his filter which I honestly haven't been paying much attention to, but his actions right before the lynch are really suspicous. | ||
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On November 24 2013 16:37 Aquanim wrote: ...bah, no. I can't really vote him. Either he dies tonight or there's at least the possibility he gets a save. ##Unvote Let me think about this. Yea and going with the assumption that scum Delayed last night, even if they shoot him he can still save their other shot. And if they don't shoot him he has a pretty good chance to guess one one of the two correctly. If he really is a doctor his being alive tonight will be a major thorn in scum's side. | ||
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sciberbia
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On the other hand, I can easily see scum doing it. Rayn looked likely to be lynched so scum probably didn't feel much pressure. There's no reason for scum to be posting with a townie lynch coming down the pipeline. Furthermore here JJD expresses his opinion that Onegu is town and HF is scum, but says he will reread. + Show Spoiler + On November 22 2013 22:23 JarJarDrinks wrote: Gonna reread Onegu but I haven't thought he was scum @ all this game so I doubt that's gonna change. Not crazy about Holyflare so gonna look close @ him. He never posts the results of this reread. He hasn't been defending Onegu today even though he's looked like the most likely lynch candidate. He hasn't been pushing an HF lynch either. As thrawn says he's too content doing nothing. Combined with what aquanim and thrawn have posted, this feels really right to me. Better than every other lynch. ##Vote: JarJarDrinks | ||
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What do you think about the arguments made by myself and others that HF is strategically a bad lynch today? I think it's a strictly better play to wait and see what happens N2 and lynch him tomorrow if necessary. Also can you even envision being online but not posting in those last couple hours before the lynch yesterday? I just don't see how JJD could do that as town. | ||
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Here are all the posts made by people online within two hours of the lynch yesterday, broken down by person. The counts alone don't really do this justice. I wish I could quote it all but too many posts. Look at the filters of the non JJD players on this list. They are mostly angry/emotional/frantic/worried. Everybody else was pushing hard to get their voice heard and convince other people of their thoughts. Either townies who care about the lynch or scum doing a decent job of faking it. Except JJD. He's content to do nothing, be ignored, and not partake in this crucial discussion. thrawn: 37 posts in the last 2 hours JJD: 2 posts in the last 2 hours (not even relevant) + Show Spoiler + On November 22 2013 11:07 JarJarDrinks wrote: WTF kind of response is this? I point out a direct contridiction and your response is "you have no idea how i play". WTF does that even mean? How you play is that you give someone a scumread and then use that exact same reasoning later to give them a townread? On November 22 2013 11:48 JarJarDrinks wrote: Did cora just walk in and take away a flip? Cora, you're really voting for no-lynch? Cora: 8 posts (in the last half hour) Bereft: 18 posts in the last 2 hours rayn: 61 posts in the last 2 hours Mocsta: 17 posts in the last 2 hours sciberbia: 13 posts in the last 2 hours aquanim: 31 posts in the last 2 hours even HF: 12 posts in the last 2 hours | ||
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Have you been following the game? | ||
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On November 24 2013 21:26 Chezinu wrote: Nah, just read the rules. Can you explain your story on Day 1? Please include the cause or lack of cause of the mob, the evil deeds of police brutally, friendly fire, and the hero/martyrs among the crowd. I will soon provide a resolution to unite the people against the tyranny of this criminal police state. I'm telling you, the police are nothing but organized criminals. Yes, they are... Mafia. D1 tl;dr wagon on Aquanim which then went away in favor of wagon on Rean which then went away in favor of wagon on rayn who was lynched and flipped vanilla town cause of the mob - to rid itself of the troublesome young raynpelikoneet who was disliked by many of his fellow mobsters and was even suspected by some of working for the police evil deeds of police (brutally) - the police didn't kill anyone last night.. not sure how I can describe this brutally friendly fire - well at least 4 mobsters voted for raynpelikoneet martyrs - raynpelikoneet, so enamored with Rean that he was willing to die in Rean's stead heroes - sciberbia | ||
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On November 24 2013 21:54 Chezinu wrote: *Sigh* berbia.... Why do you side with the oppressors of our people? How can you say that you are blind to their abuse control and power? What is worse is that you claim to know that Rean is one with our family and mock raynpel's love of our dear brother. You stop not there, but slander the name of our fallen brother raynpel by calling him young and troublesome. I am concerned about your allegiance to the family. And you call yourself a hero? I suspect the police have little power here. Perhaps one of them has gained the trust of our mob but the rest seem to cling to the shadows. Rean may very well be one of them; it is dubious whether he is one with our family, as he vanished amid suspicions yesterday and has not been seen since. I assure you I am the hero this town needs. Lend me your vote today and witness as I smite down the opressor that is JarJarDrinks. | ||
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Have you reread Onegu and HolyFlare? What are your conclusions? Who do you want to lynch today? | ||
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Also even if you were posting from your phone, why didn't you at least give a brief opinion on what you thought about the lynch? Were you confident about a rayn lynch the entire time? If so why didn't you try to reassure everyone that it was the right move? | ||
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On November 25 2013 09:02 Aquanim wrote: And finally, Onegu is by his own admission not available for deadline. That combined with his play so far (I think his reads this game are frankly bad) convinces me of this: If Onegu is town and alive at LYLO or MYLO we are screwed. If he's town I want to get his mislynch out of the way now. If he's scum there's no harm in lynching him now. If we lynch someone other than Onegu and it's a mislynch our chances of victory become vanishingly small. I'm still willing to vote JJD because I think he's at least a decent chance of flipping scum, and I'll see if I can convince myself further about him. But for the moment: ##Unvote ##Vote: Onegu I don't agree with this logic for lynching Onegu. I think our priority has to be to not get into MYLO/LYLO at all. If we lynch Onegu and he flips town do you really think we still have a good chance at winning? Let's say scum get off two shots (not unlikely). It would then be 5-3. With 8 players left we'd need 5 votes. So basically we would need every townie to vote for a scum 3 days in a row. I don't care who's alive at LYLO I think we need to avoid this situation at all costs. I think Onegu's case on Mocsta looks Onegu look significantly better and Mocsta very slightly worse. Most of the points weren't alignment indicative, but Onegu clearly put a ton of time into it even when it's clear he may very well be lynched anyway. Also he has done a pretty good job convincing me that he may actually think Mocsta is scum, just by the way he takes so much issue with Mocsta's vote switches etc. | ||
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Ask yourself this question. Do you find it more believable that Onegu wants us to lynch Mocsta today, or that JJD wants us to lynch his top scum read (Chezinu?) today? Like I don't even know who his scumreads are right now. Look at his filter. Even HolyFlare has made it more clear who he wants to lynch. | ||
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On November 25 2013 09:21 Aquanim wrote: I've played in a game town won from 4-3 LYLO before, because we eliminated the townies who wouldn't be able to work together first. But I see your point. Do you disagree with me that Onegu's cherrypicked Mocsta's posts to unfairly emphasise that Mocsta's reads change? I agree that Onegu's case has plenty of confirmation bias (malicious or not). A good chunk of his analysis is logically unsound. He did misrepresent Mocsta's play (Bereft's as well) but idk I just find it plausible that he's town and either doesn't read correctly or is so consumed with confirmation bias that he can't think objectively. I don't know. His reactions just feel kinda genuine to me. I'm having a harder time believing JJD genuinely cares about these lynches than Onegu does. | ||
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On November 25 2013 09:32 thrawn2112 wrote: the onegu lynch.... "feels" harder to achieve? the JJD lynch seems too easy? is that what you're getting at because that's why I just changed votes @thrawn That's a really dumb reason. Now that the Onegu wagon has more votes (i think) by this logic you should re-vote JJD right? I really doubt there is more than maybe 1 active scum so don't base your reasoning based off of what other active players are pushing. The scumteam could be something as dumb as Alakaslam/Chezinu/JJD | ||
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On November 24 2013 10:43 cDgCorazon wrote: TL;DR 1. He expects other players to play townier than him and is holding them to a higher standard 2. He contradicts himself- a lot. He's even contradicted himself in the same post. 3. He has tunneled Mocsta the whole game, and has only attacked four people, two of which he has only mentioned a few times (Rean and Bereft) 4. His posts and cases wreak to me of only trying to gain credit for scum hunting and not actually getting people lynched . I read your case Cora. Honestly the only point I thought was really solid was the one concerning his suspicious change of reads on rayn. Also some of the points have been invalidated. In response to your TL;DR 1) decent point but definitely not a damning scumtell. He may have just been pressed for time yesterday 2) I actually quite like his analysis of Mocsta's post restriction and how Mocsta handled it. I think it's some interesting analysis and is valid. 3) Why is only attacking 4 people a scumtell? Also I don't think tunneling one player the entire game is a scumtell as long as he is doing his damndest to get that player lynched, and still considers other possibilities (such as Bereft). Yesterday he wasn't but today he is. 4) Feels like he's trying to get Mocsta lynched today. Honestly I don't feel the case on Onegu was ever THAT strong and it has been partially invalidated by his contributions today. The majority of my problem with Onegu was that he didn't seem to care about the lynch yesterday. But he does seem to care today, and JJD seems to care even less both days than Onegu did yesterday. | ||
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Also, can anybody tell me who he wants to lynch today? Read his filter since D2 started. He is playing super super passively and not pushing anything at all. At least Onegu is making some proactive moves, reading filters, writing some cases. | ||
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I'm not going to shout you guys down if you want to stick with Onegu. Just read both of their filters since the start of D2 and consider which is more likely to be scum. | ||
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Please stop dicking around with Chezinu and tell us who you want us to lynch today. In case you haven't noticed everyone else is debating between JJD and Onegu. Care to weigh in? | ||
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So your goal in the next 2 hours is to get Mocsta lynched at all costs? You won't settle for Onegu or JJD? | ||
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On November 25 2013 10:03 Aquanim wrote: I've had a thought and I'd like to hear your opinions on this subject. + Show Spoiler + Is it truly plausible that NONE of the initial five on Rayn (Mocsta, Thrawn, myself, Bereft and JJD) were scum? Not so much in the sense of "could a townie want to lynch Rayn" (because clearly we did) but more in the sense of "would scum be comfortable with none of them on the currently going wagon". I wanted to believe this was plausible because I don't like Rayn. But in hindsight I'm beginning to suspect it's not, and since I have a clear town read on everyone bar JJD on that list... @Aquanim I honestly wouldn't consider this a tell. This line of thinking just requires too many assumptions to make analysis on. Even naming any 3 players in this game town I could probably only do with 70% confidence. On November 25 2013 10:03 JarJarDrinks wrote: Yeah, my day 2 has not been good. I've already defended my weekend activity. But it's not just that. I don't like ANY of the cases I've seen. You say I've thrown suspicion on cora and and mocsta but haven't pushed the cases. I wasn't intending to throw suspicion, I was just trying to find scum because I don't have many scumreads right now. Which is why I want to vote for the Jampi or Rean slot. Preferably Rean. I don't have all that much on them but I already posted my case on Rean. We were all ready to vote him out yesterday when rayn blew up. Has anything changed? ##Vote: Alakaslam This thought process does not seem townie to me. He didn't like any of the cases in the thread, so therefore lynch a lurker? I dunno. I think the natural townie response when you don't like any of the current cases is to go find scum yourself. There is plenty to go on. Am I really asking too much for him to have one good scumread? | ||
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To answer your questions, JJD by his own admission doesn't really have any scumreads and hasn't really been pushing anything. He wants us to lynch a lurker for lack of a lynch he actually likes. | ||
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I feel pretty optimistic about this - gonna feel amazing if he flips scum. | ||
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sorry jjd. gg | ||
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I don't really like the idea of formalizing a town circle. I think that our efforts are better spent scumhunting than discussing who we will let into our town circle and what we will do together. Also it seems kinda douchy lol But I do agree that we were stalemated D2 due to our needing the lurkers to post in order to make progress, combined with the lurkers not posting. It was frustrating. I'm in favor of applying more pressure with votes on D3. Not only does it focre lurkers to delurk but it also forces people to take a stand with their vote. | ||
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Looking at Onegu now. | ||
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CB = confirmation biased | ||
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On November 25 2013 14:22 Mocsta wrote: Q for you Scibs. My interpretation of that list post from Onegu. Do you think that is flawed logic. I have to admit, reading your cases on Onegu made me doubt my read -- which is concerning to me. + the whole act of sole tunnel on me is reminding me of how i played scum in personality 2 (where I tunneled Corazon into infinity and let the thread believe i was just that C.B.) @Mocsta Ditto what Aquanim said regarding your list post. I don't really understand your argument so perhaps you should rephrase it. Reading Onegu's D2 filter especially near the end, is enough to make me feel a gut town read on him. Posts like this just feel really genuine to me: + Show Spoiler + On November 25 2013 10:44 Onegu wrote: You all better vote me or mocsta. And when you lynch me actually read the fucking case on mocsta, I stayed up until 5am writeing that thing and all of you dont even read it. Also cora when he links shit for slam to read he didnt even link my mocsta case. And I didnt cherrypick anything, read the damn case, then read mocsta filter and tell me what relevant info I left out. Back to sleep ##lawlaiddown On November 25 2013 11:32 Onegu wrote: This lynch is going to end badly, its my own damn fault, If I could push my scum reads becaus I myself are scummy, or say things clear enough where people will actually read the case. I can really empathize with his emotion here. If he is scum that is some damn fine acting. Tunneling in and of itself isn't scummy. You have to look at how/why he is doing it. I think his infinity tunnel would be suspicious if (1) he kept repeating the same few points over and over even after you had addressed them (2) he didn't actually try to push your lynch, or (3) he used his tunnel as an excuse not to address anything else in the thread Point (3) may partially apply, but I don't think (1) and (2) do at all. In fact he keeps bringing up new points on you despite your lack of addressing his old ones. And he even got 3 votes on you yesterday. Also I'd appreciate it if you could actually respond to some of his points instead of just dismissing them. Some of them I thought were valid. Thinking particularly of his points about your jamp read on D1. | ||
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probably 0-1 scum in here {Aquanim, thrawn, Bereft, Cora, Onegu, Mocsta} probably 2-3 scum in here {Slam, Chez, HF} I'm finding it really hard to believe 2 people in the upper bracket are scum. Meaning at least 2 of the replacements are probably scum and that's where we should be focusing our efforts tonight and tomorrow. I really liked this post by Mocsta on jampi + Show Spoiler + On November 25 2013 17:00 Mocsta wrote: So originally Jampi likes Aqua case on Rean (with a caveat) Then.. Firstly, I take "even after the case" to refer to Thrawns case on Aquanim (rather than Aquanim case on Rean) though I don't think this changes my concern. Secondly, lets look at what the points of Thrawn case was that Jampi liked. How is jampidampi PoV applicable if Aquanim made a case on Rean that jampi acknowledged potentially decent. Further look again at how Jampi explains why Aqua case could be meritable This is a strawman argument that is completely open to vague interpretation allowing jampi multiple outs. The main reason I find this scummy is due to how jampi adjusts his scum read based on thread sentiment. Later on Aquanim is off the noose and we get: Guess, he gets the answer to "held back" is not satisfied, but leaves his vote on aquanim the whole cycle even though it made the case of merit. jampi posted many times whilst Rayn went AWOL including giving him a calm/calculated town read: Yet his vote remained on aquanim this whole time contradicting his original stance. I take ire with this town read further; as even people like Onegu who have extensive experience with Rayn were not able to distill their reasons for Rayn being town as succinctly as that one sentence. Yes, I do think jampidampi is scum. Unfortunately, I have no confidence at all in my ability to read Chezinu. I've tried to play his game a couple of times now but he keeps shutting me out. Whether malicious or just because he thinks I'm scum I don't know. I hope the rest of you know what you're doing regarding him. Have a lot of sleep and work to do. May not be able to post for rest of night phase. If I'm shot please give my filter a thorough reread. | ||
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On November 25 2013 23:01 Aquanim wrote: @Sciberbia: If one of the top group is scum who's your guess? Even if you can only narrow it down to two, Tough question. Can I have 3? Mocsta - if it weren't for you and thrawn telling me he is def town I probably would have put him in his own group in the middle Onegu - towniness confined to one part of his filter; possible he just put on a great act for 12-24 hours Bereft - don't know how to explain this.. just feel like there aren't any super strong town-tells OK now I really really have to do some work. closing thread | ||
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First thing's first. Cora's gotta be telling the truth. If he's scum and lying then he's been planning this since N1 as well as playing a a very townie D2.and making a ridiculous fake-claim just to win in style. I just really don't see it. So yay I'm pretty much confirmed town. Now I don't have to take crap from anyone  I really really doubt that scum saw him make his claim before the deadline. At first I thought, what if they have framer and just framed Onegu, but this doesn't really make sense. Scum would have no way to know Cora doesn't change his check. Leaving a claimed cop alive and unroleblocked is senseless. And also very important to note, they didn't even shoot me (his green check). So Bereft and Mocsta are pretty much confirmed town I think, seeing as they were in the thread and saw the claim. Very nice play Cora That means all 3 scum are in here {Onegu, Slam, Chezinu, HolyFlare} Does anyone see a problem with the above logic? If not we are in fantastic shape. Onegu with a red check on him is probably scum. The only way he could be town is if Cora is lying (very unlikely), scum saw the claim and framed him (very unlikely; see above), or if he is a miller (odds are not high). Given the fact that we have a cop, and there were 2 shots last night, and really just everything points to HF scum. Slam is looking towny to me and Chez is just ???. Not worried about them right now as we have several days to figure them out. In any case, of 4 possible players that can be scum, we're certainly not going to lynch the 3 without red checks on them. So all aboard the Onegu train. ##Vote: Onegu | ||
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On November 26 2013 18:16 Holyflare wrote: Ok, maybe it's 9, this playerlist is so wrong x_x There are 8 players left. @HF + Show Spoiler + On November 26 2013 17:19 Holyflare wrote: You people are silly. Guy claims cop AND who he is checking way before night is over and you expect him to live?? Then you say I'm scum? On November 26 2013 17:19 Holyflare wrote: Tl:dr Cora's claim is fake, misleading town into a most probably towny lynch on onegu. How are you so certain the claim is not legit? I'm pretty sure you are scum but I'll humor you. Let's say you are town. Now why can't the scumteam be Onegu + Slam + Chezinu, all of which were not around at the deadline and presumably not see Cora claim. Also do I have this right?. You're saying you were in the thread but before the deadline but didn't post anything? What if you had died? You didn't want anyone to know you had saved Cora? Yea I'm pretty sure Onegu and HF are both scum. Everything's pointing that way. | ||
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On November 26 2013 19:40 Holyflare wrote: The scum team CAN be those 3, but I got a towny feel from Onegu. He gets called out on "making things up" but why would he spend what looks like hours on cases to only be disproved because he misread timestamps? That is the most obvious thing anyone can point out ever. He isn't that bad as scum simply put. That is at best a null tell on Onegu. I'm willing to believe he genuinely got confused by the timestamps, but that doesn't make him town. The fact of the matter is I had a town read on Cora before he claimed and I'm not going to change it based on his claim. If anything his claim just makes him look even townier. On November 26 2013 19:40 Holyflare wrote: That's the thing you aren't seeing when you say other scenarios. If onegu is scum, why would cora be still alive when he most definitely said who he was checking today? The scummiest people in the game happened to not be in the thread when he claimed. It's completely believable that they simply did not see his claim, especially given that they didn't shoot me either (his green check). On November 26 2013 19:40 Holyflare wrote: Onegu has been playing and I've been lurking so what right do I have to stay in the game? Don't know what this has to do with anything. On November 26 2013 19:40 Holyflare wrote: They had 2kp, they could double stack cora or kill me and cora. If they double stacked cora not only would they get rid of a cop checking scum but they could make me look totally bad too because I "didn't heal the cop". Mocsta is now implying I wasn't around for the cop shenanigans but if I wasn't then why would scum not shoot cora because he most definitely wouldn't have been my save target otherwise. This is all irrelevant since I really don't think scum saw his claim before choosing their shots. If they did they probably WOULD have double-stacked him or at least shot me (his green check) instead of thrawn or aquanim. | ||
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On November 26 2013 20:07 Onegu wrote: @Scib if I flip town what are your thoughts on cora? Anyway my case is comeing up. Also everyone except chezniu has weighed in on me ant it is currently 6-1-1 votes on me, on cora, note voted. Can we please vote 24 hour day? ##VOTE cDgCorazon ##VOTE 24 HOUR DAY Well if you flipped miller that would be tragic and I'd still think Cora is cop. If you flip town then Cora is obviously somewhat suspect. Probably one of him/Mocsta/Bereft would have to be scum. Either cop claim is fake or Mocsta/Bereft framed you. Most likely because of math would be a fake cop claim. So yea if you flip town then I guess Cora is probably scum. But I doubt it. This whole martyring thing is pretty dumb and just makes me feel more sure about you being scum tbh. Do you really think you are going to win with town by dying but convincing someone to shoot Cora? It doesn't make any sense. If we DO have a vig then he has been roleblocked twice in a row. It wouldn't take a genius scumteam to roleblock the same person again. And either a) HF is town and gets shot, ending the game, or more likely b) HF is scum, so we have no medic, and scum have their pick of game-ending NK | ||
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On November 27 2013 02:07 Bereft wrote: Cora has been a pretty unwavering town read for me since n1/d2. his explanation to moc of why he never gave scib a strong town read in his posting was extremely solid. while I don't know if I agree with him claiming 40 min before the deadline was over, his rationalization of it was consistent with a townie mindset in my opinion. compare this to HF whose explanations and rationalizations for his actions are completely inconsistent with an actual blue role. I cannot believe for a moment he would be around at the deadline and change his save target to Cora without even questioning Cora's motivations, considering the suspicions he has of him. combined with the way he acted N1, it is basically impossible that even the most confused and foolish of doctors would do the things he's doing. I think onegu is a good lynch but HF is a safer one. when we are at mylo I don't see any harm in being risk averse, and I hope you guys will agree. also this last bit might be a bit of a stretch, but considering how he implies cora should've checked him he's probably the GF. if he flips GF we know that the scum check on onegu is basically unquestionable. ##Unvote ##Vote: Holyflare Yea I'm down with this. I really can't see Holyflare being town at all. How could he not AT THE VERY LEAST tell the thread who he is saving in case he is shot. Either he is playing a mindboggingly bad doctor or he is scum. The more likely explanation is scum. Honestly besides the red check Onegu looks reasonably townie, especially with 28 pages of notes. That's pretty try-hard for town, but super ridiculously try-hard for scum. I guess he could be miller. Funny game isn't it? I'm more willing to believe that a given player is miller than that a claimed doctor is doctor. Let's lynch HF today guys. ##Unvote ##Vote: Holyflare | ||
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Cora isn't scum Moc. We all believed his cop claim. There's no way in a million years he'd retract it if he were scum. You're overthinking things. Let's take stock here. sciberbia - town Corazon - VT Bereft - town Mocsta - VT Onegu - town/scum Slam - town/scum Chezinu - blue/scum HF - scum I'm pretty sure I'm not wrong about the top 4 players being town. Corazon > Bereft > Mocsta in order of confidence, but I'm willing to assume we are all town at least until the final 3. Scum are quite likely to be 3 out of the bottom 4. I'm literally like 95% sure HF is scum. He's just completely shitting up the thread since the game started, and especially so today. Why would he even replace in as town if he intended playing like this? I'm not even reading his posts anymore. @Cora, Bereft, Mocsta Can we please all just hold hands and lynch HF today? We can worry about the others when we see the flip. But one step at a time. | ||
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What do you think about NL if Cora really insists on keeping his vote on Onegu? I dunno if it really makes a difference whether we lynch today or tomorrow. | ||
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yea nevermind | ||
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On November 28 2013 09:52 Holyflare wrote: Like, I get why you'd put a vote on me, my play hasn't been anything like my meta's for either alignment and I haven't contributed in the traditional way. The whole thread is doing anti-town discussion whilst I generate good discussion! Blue state is best state. Blue forever. lol so troll We dont need cora just stay on HF. Scum would all have to out themselves to save him and we could just lynch them tmrw | ||
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gg hf | ||
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happy thanksgiving all | ||
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How plausible do you think a Slam & Onegu scumteam is? I don't really see them shooting Chezinu. Unless it was just to WIFOM us into not lynching one of them. But that'd be a pretty ballsy play, no? | ||
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Scenario 1: Slam and Onegu I find Slam + Onegu the most scummy individually, but I feel unsure about them being scum together. What was their plan? They shoot Chezinu and have Slam vote Onegu. Onegu gets lynched and what's the plan from there? Slam is the logical lynch for D5. It doesn't seem like a viable route to victory. I only see a few plausible explanations for them shooting Chezinu. Either they were overly paranoid of Chezinu busting out some sick blue claim and clinching the game, or they wanted to introduce a bunch of WIFOM to deter us from lynching the scummiest players. Scenario 2: Either Onegu or Slam is scum, and one of the 'town circle' is scum If this is the case, then most likely is that scum took his 'undercover analyst' schenanigans seriously and were worried that he would be able to nail both scum if left alive. It's still kinda silly though because even if he nailed both scum he probably wouldn't be able to avoid his own lynch due to the lack of any town cred. So maybe scum is just totally derp or found something in his Chezinuish riddles that was dangerous to them. It's hard to say. Scenario 3: Both Onegu and Slam are town Not wasting my time worrying about this. Fact of the matter is that it's super unlikely and if in fact they are both town I think the game is beyond lost. Well this was actualy much less conclusive than I thought it would be, but I'll post it anyway to get some feedback. My gut tells me that Scenario 2 is more likely. Not only because of the night kill explanation but also due to prior probabilities (math). However if that's the case we're in huge trouble because we have to figure out WHICH of onegu and slam is scum, and we have to figure out WHICH of the 'town circle' is scum. So I think we need to keep discussion going on who could be scum besides Slam and Onegu and not just afk lynch them one after the other. I'll put my thoughts in a separate post. | ||
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Cora - If not Mocsta, I think Cora could be scum. After all, I've detailed how I found his D1 play somewhat scummy, and his play ever since his cop claim has been anti-town, to say the least. But I disagree with Onegu that his anti-town play means that he has to be scum. Townies can play anti-town too. I also have a hard time seeing why he would fake cop, and then retract it after convincing everyone he was cop. Unless he is very much a believer in style before victory. Meh. Overall, between Mocsta and Bereft in terms of scumminess. I really can't see myself lynching him ever. Bereft - I strongly strongly think Bereft is town. If I'm wrong, he has done a hell of a job of fooling me by starting the HolyFlare lynch, claiming veteran, and keeping all his play and pushing of HolyFlare consistent. This on top of his D1 play (on which I was leaning town) make it too hard for me to seriously consider him as scum. So the most pressing question is: should we lynch Onegu today? He has 3 votes if I'm not mistaken. The sad thing is that unless we are going to lynch Cora instead I'm not sure we have much choice. There are 4 townies alive right now, and we need 4 votes to lynch. So if Cora is town, even assuming that we could get the other 3 townies on a scum, we wouldn't end up getting them lynched. If we NL, then scum just delays and we are in a strictly worse position tomorrow. I'm 100% sure that I'd rather lynch Onegu than Cora, but I'm really not too confident that Onegu is a better lynch than Slam. Onegu has been trying really hard recently, and I dunno it just makes me feel uneasy. On the other hand, Rean's slot was fairly scummy and Alakaslam is hard to read/understand. @Bereft If it was all up to you, who would you rather lynch today between Slam and Onegu? | ||
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On December 01 2013 21:04 Mocsta wrote: What stands out to me here is: (1) Rean/Slam: Useless vote; but was AFK the 2nd half of the cycle (2) Sciberbia: Helped to consolidate on Rayn; votes Corazon but is a dead vote as Rayn already had 6 votes. His votes are consistent with his cases though. (3) Holyflare: Dead vote on Corazon is odd. Need to check if Corazon chucked the shits at this vote (4) Onegu: Dead votes What stands out to me here is: (1) Slam jumping onto JJD at a very opportune moment. (2) Onegu again throwing his vote away again (but I know I am town) (3) Holyflare throwing his vote away again.. this makes Corazon look slightly better due to the Day1 vote (4) Scibs with only 1 vote. Need to re-check his position on Onegu/Corazon (his Day 1 votes) What stands out to me here is: (1) Corazon jumps around as much as Holyflare. From memory this was him chucking the shits. The key point is that he had a dead vote. (2) Onegu doesn't vote me for the first time. Instead follows Holy onto Bereft. His vote on Holy was a hammer in the sense it prevented HF from jumping ship. (3) Slam is in the middle of both Onegu and HF. (1) Without a re-read, Scibs Day2 vote looks bad as he came on board before consolidation time. The firm vote on HF isn't worth any points as Bereft essentially nailed HF forcing consolidation. (2) Slams voting looks really bad. His play is quite far removed and he shows none of urge to improve his play like in other recent games. Reans filter also reads on the verge of scummy/useless town. (3) Corazon's dead vote on Onegu is a *BOLD* play Day3. Its possible to argue he was asleep - hence was never present to consolidate; but, jeez this looks really bad next cycle and considering HF went down early-ish into the cycle, Im tending to think this is too dumb a move to perform as scum. (4) Onegu and HF have some voting synergism. As I said before, I find it unlikely that scum would follow suit so closely, but its not impossible. I think the best lynch for this cycle based on VCA is Slam (who I thought one of Chez/Slam was scum anyways). Then need to consider one of {Onegu, Sciberbia, Corazon}. To which, I am still probably leaning Onegu -- His sudden retrenchment of scum read on me seems unusual even given MYLO. Going to read HF now. ##Unvote ##Vote: Alakaslam @Mocsta Why do you keep drawing attention to 'dead votes' after every vote count? I don't understand your conclusions in this VCA. Seeing as there was really only one main wagon at the end of every day, you can call any vote not on the lynchee a dead vote. Is there anything necessarily scummy about that? Furthermore, I really don't understand how you can think this On December 01 2013 21:04 Mocsta wrote: Scibs Day2 vote looks bad as he came on board before consolidation time. You are essentially calling me scum because I was wrong. But how can you think that given the two immediately subsequent votes were Aquanim and yourself (who is also, assuming you are town, confirmed town to you). + Show Spoiler [start of JJD wagon] + On November 24 2013 17:28 sciberbia wrote: Lurking through the rayn lynch is by far the single scummiest thing anybody has done this entire game. I can't even imagine myself, as town, reading the 100 posts between pages 50 and 55 (the hour leading up to the lynch), and not posting my thoughts. That's crunch time. That's when the game is won or lost. It's when all the drama happens. The lynch was in question and everybody else online was vehemently discussing it, but JJD was just sitting there passing the time. On the other hand, I can easily see scum doing it. Rayn looked likely to be lynched so scum probably didn't feel much pressure. There's no reason for scum to be posting with a townie lynch coming down the pipeline. Furthermore here JJD expresses his opinion that Onegu is town and HF is scum, but says he will reread. + Show Spoiler + On November 22 2013 22:23 JarJarDrinks wrote: Gonna reread Onegu but I haven't thought he was scum @ all this game so I doubt that's gonna change. Not crazy about Holyflare so gonna look close @ him. He never posts the results of this reread. He hasn't been defending Onegu today even though he's looked like the most likely lynch candidate. He hasn't been pushing an HF lynch either. As thrawn says he's too content doing nothing. Combined with what aquanim and thrawn have posted, this feels really right to me. Better than every other lynch. ##Vote: JarJarDrinks On November 24 2013 17:40 Aquanim wrote: Dunno why it didn't quite reach my brain until this repetition, but yeah this is damning. ##Vote: JarJarDrinks On November 24 2013 18:07 Mocsta wrote: ##vote: jarjardrinks* Lets get a majority people !!! So what exactly is it about my vote that is scummy? + Show Spoiler + On December 01 2013 21:04 Mocsta wrote: What stands out to me here is: (1) Slam jumping onto JJD at a very opportune moment. And here Slam is scummy for being on the 'consolidating portion' of the JJD wagon, right next to yourself. Basically I don't understand this VCA at all and would like you to expand on your thought process so I can see how genuine you're being. You point out pople for starting a wagon, consolodating on a wagon, and leaving their votes 'dead', but call all 3 types of voting behavior scummy. What would you consider to be townie voting behavior? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On December 01 2013 20:53 Bereft wrote: I can't think of a reason why a mocsta scum team would make this move. all it does is cast doubt on the town read almost the entire thread has on him. the only pairing where this move would make sense is if it were a moc/scib scum team. which is not impossible but pretty much gg if so. @Bereft What if Mocsta/Onegu is scumteam and Mocsta figured that he would be able to get a mislynch on Slam, but was worried for whatever reason that Chez was blue and would be able to confirm Slam as town or Mocsta as scum? Seems very plausible to me. This is why I think the Chez kill points towards Moc being scum (or possibly even you/cora) over both Slam and Onegu. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On December 02 2013 01:52 Bereft wrote: in response to this, i think an onegu lynch is the right move. i agree with mocsta's post here: + Show Spoiler + On November 28 2013 15:11 Mocsta wrote: - In my head I was thinking: I'm bored, how about I give Onegu some courtesy and give it a full read over. - Then I realised "WOW!" Onegu has an 11page filter, maybe... *just* MAYBE he could be town. BAH-BAM !!!!! - Then I realised something else. You see Onegu: Its impossible for Holyflare and Corazon to be on a scum team. (1) Thread sentiment wanted an Onegu lynch (2) Corazon wanted a Onegu lynch (3) Its MYLO (4) Corazon fake-claimed to get you lynched (5) Holyflare Opposed the lynch as hard as he could.. even getting Corazon to admit the fake-claim Whats the problem? The problem is that scum want to win. As quickly as possible. Give that it is MYLO, if Corazon was scum -- there was no need for Holyflare to battle him, put pressure on him.. heck even get Corazon to admit fake-claiming. Further, if Corazon was *WRONG* about Onegu... Holy woulda just sat by idly and let scum mislynch to finish the game. Onegu, we already knew you were scum before all this. Now its proven and irrefutable You *will* be lynched tomorrow. The only decision this town has to make is between Chezinu and Alakaslam. Considering Chezinu flipflopped his vote, and Slam stayed true. Nothing has changed. Its just a matter of waiting out the required cycles. *TICK TOCK, TICK TOCK* HF writes this when we're full steam ahead on onegu (post-cora's "night check"): i think this post is pretty damning because he writes it at a time when he didn't think he'd be on the chopping block. HF realized cora's cop claim was fake (probably because the "town" in (town investigator) didn't match the scum team's own fake cop claim). if onegu was town, there was absolutely no reason for him to defend onegu, because if we mislynched onegu, scum would have won. and if somehow the game lasted another day, corazon would be in hot water for his fake claim and scum would be set up to push another mislynch. so really there was zero incentive for HF to prove cora's claim was fake. i also don't put much stake in onegu's pages of written notes (sorry onegu  ). to be quite frank, i think i'd be more inclined to take notes as scum than town to keep track of all my running lies!!as mocsta has said, BAM BAM!! i think we are over thinking this one. what we need to focus on is if we are sure mocsta is town and slam is the last scum. Also, you've sold me on Onegu. Let's make it happen. ##Vote: Onegu I agree that, given Onegu flips town, finding the last scum between Mocsta and Slam is nontrivial. I'm having a hard time deciding what to base that call on. Slam hasn't really done anything to establish his towniness, whereas at least Mocsta has been quite active and has ostensibly been playing 'pro-town'. And Rean's play has been covered. On the other hand, the night kills point towards Mocsta being scum than Slam. Also, ever since Cora and I voiced suspicions of him today, he went even more spazztic than usual, jumping around from person to person, calling nearly everybody scum except you. It's suspicious to me. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On December 02 2013 00:31 Alakaslam wrote: I was gonna Unvote but now we are consolidating... Cora, old Mocsta looks bad enough but so do I. I dislike looking at people from the perspective that they are scum, it's like purposely getting confirmation bias. Couple that with new Mocsta and I say, don't. I think he is on the right track, I also admit I was generally ignoring sciberia as established town (much like ignoring bereft; I mean not filter diving looking for scum). May be time to do that! @Slam Why were you gonna unvote? Is there somebody you would seriously consider lynching today besides Onegu? In the same vein, given that onegu flips scum (got it right this time), who do you want to lynch tomorrow? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
sorry Onegu. gg ugh sorry everyone. I'm really disappointed in my reads this game. But with any luck I'll be able to redeem myself. If we win from here it'll go down as one of the best comebacks ever. Cora if you are town don't get yourself modkilled. It isn't over yet (maybe). Fingers crossed. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Welcome to Back to the Basics Mini Mafia! You are Bruno Witskoski, a Mechanic (Roleblocker), known as 'The Wrench'. You broke out of nothingness with your dedication to your craft, getting noticed by the family in your area of town for your skill with a wrench and earning you a nickname. As a bonus, you have earned yourself a reputation as a get-away driver in your past. Your father was arrested and falsely accused of money laundering from the shop where you grew up and you have no love for the cops. Because of your skill with vehicles, once per night you may disable another player's car, preventing them from getting anything done that night. When you disable someone's vehicle, they will still be able to use their contacts and any attempts to arrest or shoot them will succeed. Wish me luck tonight. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
glglgl | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I was thinking about shooting Bereft on the last day to REALLY win in style but was gonna feel like an idiot if he was actually a vet. Thanks hosts for a well-hosted game. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On December 03 2013 13:38 Mocsta wrote: But the mislynch was intentional. Either way, Im curious to hear what you say after the read. I would love some pointers on how to not come across as "changing mind" all the time; whilst, trying to move the thread forward with new ideas/content. @Mocsta You came across as "changing your mind" all the time because you were changing your mind all the time. It's fine to change your mind as you discover new evidence, but reversing your position on old evidence hinders your progress and makes you lose credibility. You need to think things through to their conclusion once, rather than remaining undecided and then changing your mind later. One example is that you originally liked my Cora case, and later called it terrible and scummy. Here is another example: On November 27 2013 09:57 Mocsta wrote: (E) Sciberbia posts has me at ughhh: Was just a consolidated post of 2 pages of my filter interactions but treated Bereft post exactly like me, so is town regardless of if Corazon was fake claiming. On December 01 2013 21:04 Mocsta wrote: (1) Without a re-read, Scibs Day2 vote looks bad as he came on board before consolidation time. The firm vote on HF isn't worth any points as Bereft essentially nailed HF forcing consolidation. So does my vote on HF mean I'm town, or is it possible I just saw the writing on the wall and knew I had to bus him? You conclude the former in the first post and the latter in the second post. The latter conclusion turns out to be correct, and there is no reason you couldn't have come to it originally given enough thought. Also, I recommend that you not preface points with things like "Without a reread". It just removes credibility from yourself, and implies that you may very well be changing your mind later. You did a similar thing on D2 when you voted me while admitting that you hadn't reread my filter, and I was able to take that opportunity to discredit you, and gauge how suspicious others such as Bereft and Onegu were of you. Before posting something like that, actually do the reread, and then make a conclusion that you feel good about and can stand behind. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
setup + Show Spoiler + I think the setup is pretty heavily scum favored, and that town winning was always a long shot. With 9 townies and 3 scum, I think town wins something like 18% of the time with random lynches. So you need some seriously powerful blues to balance it. IMO a single medic is not enough. Add to this the fact that the setup was closed and scum had a delay power (meaning town can't even no-lynch at 4-person MYLO) and you have a game that's really hard for town. For the record, I think most mini setups on this site are scum favored. In the 11 minis I've played scum has won 9, so it's possible I suffer from outcome bias. D1 + Show Spoiler + I thought the D1 atmosphere was pretty good for town. I didn't really enjoy getting into a fight with Cora as it drew a lot of attention to me, but it ended up OK for me, as more people were suspicious of Cora than myself. I disagree that Aquanim played poorly on D1; I thought he was actually one of the towniest players. And I thought he was pretty dangerous, as his scumhutning was more cautious and well-reasoned compared to others which were much more confirmation-biased. As such I would have really liked to have all scum jump on his bandwaggon and get him out of the game, so at first I tried to leave myself the option of voting him On November 21 2013 10:18 sciberbia wrote: Aquanim could be scum, but I think I still feel better about Cora and Rean, and now Onegu. Finishing up a post on Onegu. I want some serious looks at it because I think he may be the best lynch today. but while under pressure he just looked so townie to me that I thought it'd be claiming scum if I voted for him. Maybe I should have though. Making votes like Aquanim and Rayn D1 I could not possibly see myself doing as town, so I felt very scared to do it as scum. Felt like it'd be outing myself, but I dunno if anyone would realistically have caught me for it. Anyway, town eventually wisened up and the wagon on Aquanim disapeared for a wagon on Rean, which I thought was pretty well-founded. I thought Rean might very well be lynched, and I was ready to bus him. Rayn obviously made a huge mistake by disrupting this wagon, and town in turn made a mistake by lynching rayn over rean. I don't think rayn's play made any sense as scum, but for people that hadn't played with him before I could see why they would vote him. Also he was wrong on pretty much every read and disrupting the thread so it wasn't the worst lynch in the world even though he was town. D2 + Show Spoiler + As Aquanim said, this was just a case of none of the scum being really lynchable. I think I played a townie-enough D1 and D2 such that anyone who hasn't played with me before (the vast majority of the thread) would not be able to scumread me. IMO it's pretty hard to actually catch any decent scum player on legitimite scumtells without prior experience with them. HF claimed doctor so lynching him D2 didn't really make a lot of sense compared to D3. I think lynching him D3 worked out just fine for town. I don't think HF's play was particularly great, but I guess it's better than nothing. If he had actually played the game scum probably would have had a perfect victory. Rean was replaced by Slam, who might have been the smartest lynch based on Rean's filter, but it's always a tough decision with replacements. So in the end we lynched JJD. I thought the case on him was mediocre. I think my original vote on him looked pretty strong, but his explanations for his activity were fine and his play was similar to that previous game Bereft mentioned. If I were town I would probably have unvoted, but I'm still not sure who I would have lynched instead. Onegu looked pretty townie to me with his D2 play, which caused problems for me, as I really didn't want to call him scum for the rest of the game, but I kinda needed him to be mislynched so I couldn't call him town either. After this lynch, I did some analysis in the scum QT and concluded town would almost surely lose. At this point I started hyper-lurking because I'm lazy, wanted to enjoy the holidays, and was pretty confident I wouldn't lose anyway. Mocsta correctly caught on eventually and identified me as scum for it, but fortunately nobody else did. D3 + Show Spoiler + Cora's cop claim actually had me pretty worried. It's pretty hard to imagine why I wouldn't be shot as his green check. So I tried to push the explanation that scum weren't in the thread and didn't see it. In practice, finding scum by looking at who doesn't make sense to still be alive works pretty well. HF lynch was the only correct move D3, and town made it OK enough. Didn't help town that Cora was so stubborn about his Onegu read though. I don't think Onegu even played that scummily. I thought everyone would consider him confirmed town once he posted pics of 28 pages of notes (which by the way I think is unfair to the lazy-ass scumteam). But fortunately people still thought he was scum for whatever reason. I didn't really see how we could get around bussing HF, so I hopped on good and early to get some town cred. I was actually quite surprised people were even considering lynching Onegu, even given Cora's fake red check. D4 + Show Spoiler + Not sure if Chezinu shot was smart or not. I think his reasons for calling me scum were completely irrelevant, but the fact of the matter is he was the only one really suspicious of me, and might have voted for me. Also I thought he was probably blue. I guess I'm a fool. Anyway Slam wanted to shoot him so why not -- I think we could probably have made any shot and still won. And at least Chezinu would definitely not be doc'd. And we ended up lynching Onegu because the townies' reads weren't good enough to overcome such a huge disadvantage. 4-2 MYLO is pretty brutal, especially when you can't NL due to delay threat. D5 + Show Spoiler + I worked out through various reasoning that Bereft was likely a doc, but since he was suspicious of Mocsta being scum probably wouldn't save him. In any case I thought it'd be fun to claim roleblocker and claim I knew Bereft was a doc, in order to make myself 'confirmed town' if he saved Mocsta, leading us to lynch Slam and Cora and win the game. I'm curious if this would have worked. It would have been better if I actually proved why Bereft was a doc in my deadline post but I didn't have time, and thought the game would be over anyway. Overall, I'd say it was a scum-favored setup in which even our mediocre scum play would give us a good chance at winning. Town's scumhunting just wasn't good enough. I also reiterate my thanks to the hosts, especially OO. Made the game very smooth and pleasant for me. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I mean -- it still wasn't a good play. But the main problem was that he (and everyone else) was wrong about Onegu in the first place. I guess you can argue he was being a dick. But that's not really relevant to winning the game. @Cora My main advice to you would be 1) Don't take things so personally. Nobody disregarded your Onegu case in order to spite you or anything. People just genuinely didn't think Onegu was as likely to be scum as JJD. People's minds work in different ways and someone is always going to disagree with you. It's just something you have to get used to. 2) Be less sure in your reads. This really goes for everyone. Mafia is a hard game and you always have to consider the possibility that you are wrong. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I agree you did a good job D2 of establishing your towniness and keeping the thread alive. I couldn't comfortably lurk because of you. Once you started afk'ing and demanding Onegu lynches I had an easier time of slinking back into the shadows after everything i posted. So I think you should try to emulate that type of play in future, but keep more of an open mind when driving discussion instead of tunneling your target. On December 03 2013 16:20 Aquanim wrote: Blaming Onegu for your read on him isn't exactly sportsmanlike either - it's a kind of justifiable thing to say about a lurker who puts no effort in, but Onegu clearly gave some kind of a damn about this game regardless of his alignment. He played to his wincon as best he knew how, and that is all I ask of anyone. I agree very much with this. I think Onegu clearly tried to win the game for his team. He'd look a lot better for it if his reads were right, but everyone makes bad reads. It's just part of the game. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On December 03 2013 16:37 raynpelikoneet wrote: Actually i do not think town was playing well for the first half of D1. Yes they were right, but for wrong reasons. Based on a case that was answered and noone updated their read on Rean after that, just said "but he is scum". Well it's hard to definitively say whether the reasons were right or not. Only Rean could really tell us for sure. But given that town moved off of a town wagon (Aquanim) onto a scum one (Rean) I'm inclined to think they were doing something right. And I felt the atmosphere was mostly constructive up until that point. Rayn I think you can make some good reads and sometimes look pretty smart, but presuming that you are right and everyone else in town is wrong to the point where you refuse to let town have their lynch is a bit much. I think you have to be more willing to concede the possibility that you are wrong (this goes for everyone). | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I've only seen your play recently, but I really doubt you are getting worse over time. Pretty much any skill is improved with practice. iirc people during desert mini were talking about how much better you were playing. And I thought you played pretty well this game. I don't think you should shy away from obtaining 'confirmed town status' if possible. Being able to establish yourself as town is very important to helping your team win, regardless of your alignment. Also I agree with yamato. I think town could have used more leadership this game and you were in a good position to provide it. More than just trying to deduce who is scum, try to think about what town needs as a whole. What discussions need to take place? Who needs to post more? Who needs to be calmed down? What are the reasonable lynch options -- start some discussion on them. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Talking about the setup is somewhat productive IMO but people always call me scum for it. Making a hello post and then lurking is generally seen as scummy. When I try to force scumhunting people get mad that my cases are somewhat weak (what do you expect it's 2 hours into the game). I really dislike trolling at the start of the game. I find it really unproductive for town. I've never tried just saying nothing at all and making my first post later. It just doesn't sit right with me. I never actively lurk as town. Furthermore, someone has to find a way to generate discussion so who am I to make somebody else do it. Thoughts? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
The vast majority of my posting as scum is just me trying to emulate to a large degree what I would post as town, and the early D1 was no exception, but you and Cora still called me scum for it. I think later you pointed out a few legitimate scumtells on me, but I don't think my post on Cora was alignment indicative. I was planning on starting the game like that regardless of my alignment. That's probably why I got so mad when you tried to call me scum for it. | ||
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