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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=437262
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 22 2013 13:26 GMT
#1141
On November 22 2013 12:10 cDgCorazon wrote:
Doesn't Onegu's vote look really scummy with Rayn's flip?



How?
Try TL Mafia!!!
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 22 2013 13:32 GMT
#1142
On November 22 2013 11:57 cDgCorazon wrote:
OMG RAYN IM STICKING MY NECK OUT FOR YOU AND YOU ARE GONNA MARTYR
FUCK YOU MAN JUST FUCK YOU



Also rayns martyr is the correct play in majority lynch, he knows his flip is valuable for info. His flip proved alot of stuff. Like most likely all scum was on his wagon. He gives credibility to his reads.
Try TL Mafia!!!
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 22 2013 13:36 GMT
#1143
On November 22 2013 12:50 Mocsta wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 22 2013 11:48 sciberbia wrote:
I'll consolidate to rayn if necessary.

But you guys really need to put your votes down. This is the problem with not having a counterwagon. Now we are just lynching rayn because we have no choice, not because that many people even think he's a good lynch.

The original counter-wagons were Rean / Aqua

As a musing

The day had 2 halves

Half 1: Before Rayn chucked martyred

Half 2: After Rayn martyred

My reads from Half 1 were:
Show nested quote +
On November 21 2013 14:49 Mocsta wrote:
Next, this is my group of strong town reads from p5 -> p20
{Thrawn, JarJarDrinks, Aquanim, Rayn}

This is my group of tentative town reads from p5->p20 (i.e. people i dont have interest to lynch this cycle)
{Corazon, Bereft, Onegu, LoneMeow}

Thus, this is my pile of shit left over: for todays lynch

{Rean, Sciberbia, jampidampi}


and then
Show nested quote +
On November 21 2013 17:25 Mocsta wrote:
Read the whole game. Updated reads list:

The Good: {Thrawn, JarJarDrinks, Aquanim, Bereft}

The Bad: {Onegu, LoneMeow, Rayn, Sciberbia}

The Ugly: {Rean, jampidampi, Corazon}


The common denominators are Rean + Jampidampi.


Jampidampi is terrible as he refused to commit to anything accusations on rayn last night (from recollection)
Rean is terrible for that post he made. It reads as if he knew he was not getting lynched so decided to keep quiet.

I dont like holyflare, but hes low priority for me - over the next cyles Im sure if he is town he can start proving it.



So bad dont you think rayn was more confident in his reads closer to his death when he had more info? So you look at old reads and mix them with your reads so you can push your reads and then saying hey look rayn thought they were scum too and he flipped town.
Try TL Mafia!!!
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 22 2013 13:39 GMT
#1144
On November 22 2013 12:58 Holyflare wrote:
I told you them in LXIII, a game in which both you and thrawn were/are in. How do you not know what rayn town tells are by now?



Stop multiple people you have mentioned havent flipped.
Try TL Mafia!!!
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 22 2013 13:43 GMT
#1145
On November 22 2013 13:11 Mocsta wrote:
Btw,
I think Thrawn is town. I did very much 24hrs ago; and his compulsion to keep swapping votes is towny to me.
It could put him heavily under suspicion when rayn flipped town, and frankly, was unnecessary as scum play.

I thought Aqua was town from 24hrs ago as well. Holy states that aqua is ignoring everything, but that is not my opinion. If anything, Aqua can't stop bantering back with Rayn. Again, this is over done knowing it is a town flip. Aqua could have easily nested on his read - but he did not. I have a town lean on him, but wiill still be reading his cases carefully (and with Rayn gone I expect more output like cases from him)

Me: I was transparent about policy. You want to call that mafia, whatever. I knwo this game is 100% different to my recent scum game. Nothing more needs to be said + I dont knwo why you keep insinuating I am intimate with Rayns meta. I have expectations of his play, but I am not a connoiseur of him at all.


Onegu: Looks pretty bad I agree regardless of AFK.

Show nested quote +
Anyway mocsta is my biggest scumread now. Also Rayn is a terrible lynch today please change, ill try to be up for deadline but no promises.
This in particular. Nothing to do with the AFK its got to do with how he went about the situation.
He gives rayn a town read, and forces town to consider Rayns thread opposition (me)

Compare this to Corazon who is trying to avoid continuing this ego battle - Onegu instead fans the flames.

Onegu *is* scum




Not fanning flames, posting reads that at least one was correct. No idea how my voteing you and calling rayn town is in anyway fanning flames. I am so confident you are scum now, you flip flop on your reads soooo often, you misrepresent things like this post and you are overall just scummy.
Try TL Mafia!!!
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
November 22 2013 13:49 GMT
#1146
Ill be back in a bit to make my case on mocsta and bereft. Third scum I am still trying to figure out. Have another game to catch up on but Ill be up late tonight to play so any questions ask me and I will answer.
Try TL Mafia!!!
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
November 22 2013 14:09 GMT
#1147
On November 22 2013 22:32 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 22 2013 11:57 cDgCorazon wrote:
OMG RAYN IM STICKING MY NECK OUT FOR YOU AND YOU ARE GONNA MARTYR
FUCK YOU MAN JUST FUCK YOU



Also rayns martyr is the correct play in majority lynch, he knows his flip is valuable for info. His flip proved alot of stuff. Like most likely all scum was on his wagon. He gives credibility to his reads.

@Onegu I have two questions.

1) Why do you think all of the scum would be on Rayn's wagon? What motive does the scumteam have for pushing Rayn's lynch so hard?

2) Could you comment on what about Rayn's reads you find persuasive?
JarJarDrinks
Profile Joined March 2013
United States1302 Posts
November 22 2013 14:17 GMT
#1148
On November 22 2013 22:26 Onegu wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 22 2013 12:10 cDgCorazon wrote:
Doesn't Onegu's vote look really scummy with Rayn's flip?



How?
Yeah, I'm curious as to what Cora is getting @ here too.
Aquanim
Profile Joined November 2012
Australia2849 Posts
November 22 2013 14:26 GMT
#1149
On November 22 2013 23:17 JarJarDrinks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 22 2013 22:26 Onegu wrote:
On November 22 2013 12:10 cDgCorazon wrote:
Doesn't Onegu's vote look really scummy with Rayn's flip?



How?
Yeah, I'm curious as to what Cora is getting @ here too.


Now I wouldn't normally pre-empt an answer like this, but I'm pretty sure I already asked this question and Corazon already answered... in the posts directly after the quoted one.

On November 22 2013 12:20 cDgCorazon wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 22 2013 12:14 Aquanim wrote:
On November 22 2013 12:10 cDgCorazon wrote:
Doesn't Onegu's vote look really scummy with Rayn's flip?

I'm not sure why Onegu's vote looks scummier due to Rayn's flip. Unless you're saying he didn't want to take responsibility for the Rayn lynch... which would apply to you in spades too. Could you clarify?

Onegu dropped a vote away from Rayn and then peaced out.

What would scum do if they knew town Rayn was probably going to be lynched 12 hours in advance? They wouldn't all pack on the Rayn wagon. That would be too obvious for a scum team. Wouldn't it make sense for Onegu to put a vote on Moc in the middle of the Rayn tunnel to look like he was making an effort to scum-hunt and then be able to distance himself from a Rayn lynch?

I was transparent with my stance on Rayn and my decision to no-lynch. Onegu was very shady about it and I think it's because he is hiding the fact that he is scum.


@Onegu, JJD: Do you find Corazon's explanation here insufficient?
JarJarDrinks
Profile Joined March 2013
United States1302 Posts
November 22 2013 14:54 GMT
#1150
On November 22 2013 23:26 Aquanim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 22 2013 23:17 JarJarDrinks wrote:
On November 22 2013 22:26 Onegu wrote:
On November 22 2013 12:10 cDgCorazon wrote:
Doesn't Onegu's vote look really scummy with Rayn's flip?



How?
Yeah, I'm curious as to what Cora is getting @ here too.


Now I wouldn't normally pre-empt an answer like this, but I'm pretty sure I already asked this question and Corazon already answered... in the posts directly after the quoted one.

Show nested quote +
On November 22 2013 12:20 cDgCorazon wrote:
On November 22 2013 12:14 Aquanim wrote:
On November 22 2013 12:10 cDgCorazon wrote:
Doesn't Onegu's vote look really scummy with Rayn's flip?

I'm not sure why Onegu's vote looks scummier due to Rayn's flip. Unless you're saying he didn't want to take responsibility for the Rayn lynch... which would apply to you in spades too. Could you clarify?

Onegu dropped a vote away from Rayn and then peaced out.

What would scum do if they knew town Rayn was probably going to be lynched 12 hours in advance? They wouldn't all pack on the Rayn wagon. That would be too obvious for a scum team. Wouldn't it make sense for Onegu to put a vote on Moc in the middle of the Rayn tunnel to look like he was making an effort to scum-hunt and then be able to distance himself from a Rayn lynch?

I was transparent with my stance on Rayn and my decision to no-lynch. Onegu was very shady about it and I think it's because he is hiding the fact that he is scum.


@Onegu, JJD: Do you find Corazon's explanation here insufficient?

I think that you pointing out that it was pretty damn close to exactly what he did was spot on. Cora said he was transparent about his reasons while Onegu wasn't. Here's both of their posts telling us that Rayn was a bad wagon:
On November 22 2013 04:33 Onegu wrote:
Anyway mocsta is my biggest scumread now. Also Rayn is a terrible lynch today please change, ill try to be up for deadline but no promises. Anyway its 2:30am and typeing all that up on a tablet is difficult.

##VOTE:Mocsta

@Rayn stop marytring and come back and push your reads.
On November 22 2013 11:28 cDgCorazon wrote:
You know what, I don't want any part of this. Rayn and Moc are just battling with their egos and this whole thing is silly. I would say that I'd rather have Rayn be lynched so we can move on to more things but I also think it is really stupid that we are voting Rayn out when it's pretty obvious to me now that he is town.

##unvote
##Vote: No-lynch


This is stupid and I can't believe that it has come to this. Rayn is a bad lynch and Onegu/Aqua are way better lynches today.


And in response to this:
On November 22 2013 12:20 cDgCorazon wrote:
Wouldn't it make sense for Onegu to put a vote on Moc in the middle of the Rayn tunnel to look like he was making an effort to scum-hunt and then be able to distance himself from a Rayn lynch?

I mean, it's exactly what Cora did except w/ Onegu. The only difference is Cora didn't actually put his vote on anyone.
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
November 22 2013 15:02 GMT
#1151
I don't get this.

how am I not playing town that people like jarjar think I am a chance to flip scum?


JarJarDrinks
Profile Joined March 2013
United States1302 Posts
November 22 2013 15:15 GMT
#1152
On November 23 2013 00:02 Mocsta wrote:
I don't get this.

how am I not playing town that people like jarjar think I am a chance to flip scum?


This just seems like such fake indignation.

Here's what I said.
On November 22 2013 22:23 JarJarDrinks wrote:
Also gonna look into Rayns other scumreads though I don't know how much stock I can put into them because of how wrong he was about me. But I don't feel like he could really go 0 for 3 in his reads so if I had to choose 1 scum between Moc and Bereft, right now I'm gonna say it's Moc. But this is before my reread.

And Rayn, the confirmed town, thought u were scum. Shouldn't you be more incredulous of that as opposed to me?

It'd be stupid to just ignore what rayn had to say. I think it's unlikely that he missed the whole scum team w/ his reads. So it makes sense that @ least ONE of the people he named is scum. And since I have the benefit of narrowing it down to 2 names, I'm certainly gonna analyse it.

The fact that you think that rayn was completly wrong w/ all of his reads and gave me AND bereft townreads after the flip is suspicious to me.
Bereft
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
United States1007 Posts
November 22 2013 16:16 GMT
#1153
in response to thrawn:

as per my diagram:

when who you would lynch based on scum reads coincides with who you would lynch based on policy, it's not hard to become stuck or tunneled on the player in question.

I chose not to interact with him because he was spamming the thread and came off unwilling to listen to reason. anyone who confronted him HAD to be scum (see JJD, Mocsta). if you look back around page 30 or so (sorry I'm on my phone) when he jumps on me for having bad priorities, I try to engage and talk with him, but he just peaces out and goes to bed. whatever, it's 6am in Finland, I'm annoyed but willing to let that slide...but when he comes back the next day, there's no attempt to analyze anything I've said or have a dialogue with me. he rides in on his high horse, calls everything bullshit, and insults/points his finger everywhere, clogging up the thread with what appears to be no more than 5 second long analysis. IF(PLAYER THINKS IM SCUM, THEN HE'S SCUM, ELSE TOWN). it's like when you see a dangerous and crazy looking person in the street shouting at passerbys and you veer off course to walk around them. do you find it hard to see why I had no intention of interacting with him?

in my mind, it was a good and fair lynch up till about 8pm EST (2 hours before the deadline) when my town reads came back into the thread and voiced misgivings about the lynch choice and it became clear Rean was lurking and Onegu, Jampi were all absent. in retrospect, I should've stepped back and worked with them to find a better 2nd candidate, but (and this is where the 3rd circle of that Venn diagram comes into play) when it's close to the deadline and the person I'm tunneled on getting lynched is within grasp, it's hard to take a step back and rethink my stance. its like dangling something a toddler wants within arm's reach - it was hard for me to look away and reevaluate whether there was a better option further away across the room, and to change course so last minute seemed to put heavily risk a no lunch and put our consolidation into jeopardy.

with hindsight obviously I don't think it was a good lynch. but I do not think that it was an unfair lynch given the information available. I think the fact that you did not need to be persuaded to vote rayn implies that you agree, no? as a final point, yours and scib's defense rested purely on "rayn could do this as town". I'm fine with analysis without meta or analysis with meta, but the defense of rayn read to me as pure meta without analysis, which I found weak. maybe that's not how you guys intended it, but with the clock ticking down and rushed posting, that's how I read it.

let me know if you need me to explain any further.
Corazon
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United States3230 Posts
November 22 2013 17:06 GMT
#1154
@JJD

If I was scum in that situation, what would I do? I would have 2 goals:

1. Keep Rayn alive
2. Not change my story in my attempt to keep Rayn alive

The only reason I could see scum trying to lynch Rayn is if his reads were right. So either:

1. All the scum did not vote for Rayn
2. Rayn's reads are at least somewhat correct (at least 1 is scum)
3. The scumteam is just bad

To be fair to Onegu, he said that he was not able to make a post before the deadline but to be honest I looked at the time for Australia and I really believe that Onegu could have made a post that said "Hey guys, I don't think Rayn is scum. I'm sticking with my vote" which would have made me accept his vote more.

The fact that he didn't kind of points to the fact that he doesn't care about the lynch, a sentiment that has been echoed by many players here.
Grubby's #1 Fan
JarJarDrinks
Profile Joined March 2013
United States1302 Posts
November 22 2013 17:28 GMT
#1155
On November 23 2013 02:06 cDgCorazon wrote:
The only reason I could see scum trying to lynch Rayn is if his reads were right.
Um. wouldn't scum be more inclined to have him flip green ASAP if his reads were wrong?
Holyflare
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom30774 Posts
November 22 2013 17:30 GMT
#1156
On November 23 2013 02:28 JarJarDrinks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 23 2013 02:06 cDgCorazon wrote:
The only reason I could see scum trying to lynch Rayn is if his reads were right.
Um. wouldn't scum be more inclined to have him flip green ASAP if his reads were wrong?


Yes, rayn pushes any target he has forever, wrong or right. If he's alive he can screw up the thread in that respect (as you guys saw). If his reads were wrong a scum team that knows him would keep him alive. So most likely his reads were right and he got lynched ("policy lynched") for it.
Corazon
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United States3230 Posts
November 22 2013 17:35 GMT
#1157
On November 23 2013 02:28 JarJarDrinks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 23 2013 02:06 cDgCorazon wrote:
The only reason I could see scum trying to lynch Rayn is if his reads were right.
Um. wouldn't scum be more inclined to have him flip green ASAP if his reads were wrong?

Well I think it is a trade off between killing a green now and no-lynching D1/lynching Rayn D2.
If I was scum, I would rather have the chaos of what the Rayn discussion brought continue over having him flip now. Instead of us spending 2 days only talking about Rayn, now we have peace and we can focus on other targets that are actually scum.

Perhaps the scum felt that the chances of lynching a town D2 are high as well even with the town in a more focused mindset w/o Rayn. That's also a possibility.
Grubby's #1 Fan
JarJarDrinks
Profile Joined March 2013
United States1302 Posts
November 22 2013 17:38 GMT
#1158
On November 23 2013 02:30 Holyflare wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 23 2013 02:28 JarJarDrinks wrote:
On November 23 2013 02:06 cDgCorazon wrote:
The only reason I could see scum trying to lynch Rayn is if his reads were right.
Um. wouldn't scum be more inclined to have him flip green ASAP if his reads were wrong?


Yes, rayn pushes any target he has forever, wrong or right. If he's alive he can screw up the thread in that respect (as you guys saw). If his reads were wrong a scum team that knows him would keep him alive. So most likely his reads were right and he got lynched ("policy lynched") for it.
This doesn't make sense to me. You say he "screw[ed] up the thread" as we saw. But no one listened to him at all. So why would scum care to have him leave the thread if he's shitting it up AND no one is listening to him? Once he's gone, the town knows all his reads are real.
Corazon
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United States3230 Posts
November 22 2013 17:41 GMT
#1159
On November 23 2013 02:38 JarJarDrinks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 23 2013 02:30 Holyflare wrote:
On November 23 2013 02:28 JarJarDrinks wrote:
On November 23 2013 02:06 cDgCorazon wrote:
The only reason I could see scum trying to lynch Rayn is if his reads were right.
Um. wouldn't scum be more inclined to have him flip green ASAP if his reads were wrong?


Yes, rayn pushes any target he has forever, wrong or right. If he's alive he can screw up the thread in that respect (as you guys saw). If his reads were wrong a scum team that knows him would keep him alive. So most likely his reads were right and he got lynched ("policy lynched") for it.
This doesn't make sense to me. You say he "screw[ed] up the thread" as we saw. But no one listened to him at all. So why would scum care to have him leave the thread if he's shitting it up AND no one is listening to him? Once he's gone, the town knows all his reads are real.

Yes but the town atmosphere for the last 12 hours of the game was absolutely terrible. If we had no-lynched Rayn would still an issue and we would waste D2 on it. I guarantee that.

That is why it was a hard choice for me to not vote Rayn.
Grubby's #1 Fan
JarJarDrinks
Profile Joined March 2013
United States1302 Posts
November 22 2013 17:49 GMT
#1160
On November 23 2013 02:41 cDgCorazon wrote:
Yes but the town atmosphere for the last 12 hours of the game was absolutely terrible. If we had no-lynched Rayn would still an issue and we would waste D2 on it. I guarantee that.
So then how could you say that Scum would want to lynch rayn if his reads were right? They should want to keep him in the game no matter what. But especially if his reads were right.
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