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Newbie Mini Mafia LI - Page 35

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
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Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 07 2014 20:32 GMT
#681
That's a weird question, considering you're going to die haha... once you're dead you can't talk anyways... but yeah, everyone can still talk in this thread at night.
TheChyz
Profile Joined November 2013
Canada238 Posts
January 07 2014 20:32 GMT
#682
Unless u think u can get ur people u talk about lynched or saved from a Lynch, I think it would be better to wait until night
onlywonderboy
Profile Joined August 2012
United States23745 Posts
January 07 2014 20:35 GMT
#683
On January 08 2014 01:02 TheChyz wrote:
Everybody has to start to make up their mind. IMO Dragoon himself has not cleared his name, the person that has done that for him is DW. His so called defense after the martyr to me felt like garbage and he has done almost nothing to help scumhunt. The current vote on dnyarri IS in fact useless because apart from the votes onto him, there is no information to be gained whatsoever. However Dragoon has played a terrible game and has done nothing productive to the town, infact all he has done is cause confusion (as well as DW), which in this case is worse than dnyarri. His allignment will also say SO much more than dnyarri's will

From the beginning of the game Dragoon and DW have been defending themselves and it has been very suspicious. Personally I just thing DW knows too much and my vote would be on him because regardless if for some reason Dragoon ends up being town, DW will use the "i told you card". He seems very adamant on dnyarri, but it seems to me like he is just hoping that since I voted for him I would be able to help lead the bandwagon on the lurker or somebody else will. To me I find that DW has also barely helped town scum hunt in the fact that he just tries to attack everybody in the game but only a little bit, never with a vote, and has been defensive about Dragoon from the start. Too much defending Dragoon and not enough scum hunting.

##Vote: Day_Walker

I agree with a lot of what was brought up here. The more and more I think about it the more I start to doubt the Day_Walker/Dragoon pair. This mostly has to do with how things have played out since Dragoon got a large portion of the votes. I agree that Day_Walker has put forth way more effort into defending Dragoon after his doom seemed inevitable and decided to rally his cause around a lurker that it would be hard to gather support for. If Dragoon flips town DW looks clear, but he seems to have gone out of his way to make it actually look this way. If they were both scum it's unlikely he would be defending him so vehemently.
RIP Ryan Davis / TL or Die / @onlywonderboy
LoneMeow
Profile Joined June 2013
Finland1396 Posts
January 07 2014 20:52 GMT
#684
On January 08 2014 05:29 theDragoon wrote:
so what happens at night is there still discussion?


Yes, you can talk during nights in this game.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 07 2014 20:56 GMT
#685
On January 07 2014 19:42 chinstrap wrote:
I think we have the correct Day 1 lynch, I also think that everything that has been posted about the lynch since ~martyr post has been completely superfluous and should not be read into regardless of what colour theDragoon flips. The day basically ends there in my mind.


^

The problem I have with daywalker is he waited so freaking long to start defending dragoon... and then suddenly he's like "meh i don't think i need to defend him anymore" just cause dragoon posted. Only after I prompted him to ACTUALLY defend him did he post this:

On January 07 2014 21:20 Day_Walker wrote:
@Balla's second question:
Show nested quote +
On January 07 2014 19:52 Balla24 wrote:
On January 07 2014 15:41 Day_Walker wrote:
I don't like the lynch on theDragoon.

I'll give my reasoning in a bit, but I want hear more from Dragoon first.


Please explain more. You have since said you don't think you need to but I didn't really understand that. You are very adamant that dragoon is going to flip town, why? What has he done that makes him so town to you?


Judging by his actions, I don't have a strong read on Dragoon
The evidence against Dragoon looked very different to me than the rest of town. When people were talking about me and Dragoon as scum buddies, and then accusing us of trying to distance ourselves, I was the only townie who could read those posts and say "lol no". When Dragoon was defending himself against these accusation, I was the only townie who could read those posts and say "yup, this is 100% a guy defending himself against some false accusations". I think this in turn affected the weight I gave to other accusations against him. For example, I think most other people saw his snap OWB vote as scummy. Since I knew that OWB's scum-buddy accusation was false, I thought "well, I can't really tell if this is a frustrated townie lashing out or a cornered scum lashing out". The way Town has interacted with Dragoon over the last day has made it difficult for me to get a good read on him, because I'm not sure how to tell the difference between frustrated townie and cornered scum.

Judging by the entire game, I lean town for Dragoon.

This most heavily rests on my scum read for dnyarri, and the fact that dnyarri placed the very first for Dragoon. Based on the vote, I think it unlikely that both dnyarri AND Dragoon are scum, and this turns my scum read for dnyarri into a town read for Dragoon. And for the reasons I just gave, this sounds a lot more plausible to me than to any other townie.

@Balla's first question:
Show nested quote +
On January 07 2014 19:46 Balla24 wrote:
@DW you specifically said something like 'I believe we saw Mafia run a bandwagon' so by that you meant they hopped on the bandwagon and not that they led the bandwagon?


Let me try that again.
I saw two people that I suspect as scum, dnyarri and OWB, contribute early on in the Dragoon lynch (votes 1 and 3) for reasons that didn't look strong to me (again my take is different here, since I'm the only town who knows OWB's accusation was completely untrue). The Town was already suspicious of Dragoon, the lynch took off, and sidesprang capped it off with another scummy-feeling vote.

To summarize:
I am not adamant that Dragoon is town, although I suspect he is. I am adamant that dnyarri is a better lynch target.
I my read on Dragoon and the situation in general has been influenced by information available only to scum, me, and Dragoon, and I understand that the rest of Town may not share my views.



Where most of his defense relied on his POV about the "dragoon/DW" relationship... Definitely have to agree with chinstrap... the timing of all this makes it so that I think i'm going to have to ignore everything in regards to DW at least out the window after dragoon martyred
theDragoon
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada307 Posts
January 07 2014 20:57 GMT
#686
The more and more I think about it the more I start to doubt the Day_Walker/Dragoon pair


That's because there was never a link to begin with. Whoever started that whole scum buddy thing either got a little too excited that they may have found scum or decided to just outright fabricate it because they were mafia and this "link" would help town turn against each other.

I know I recently said that I think Day_Walker is town, but I think he would be the better choice to lynch tonight, if you still think me and him are somehow linked.

Case 1:
I feel like the town would gain more information lynching Day_Walker than me since he is really going out of his way to defend me and even attempting to redirect the lynch votes to another person. If he gets flipped as mafia tonight, then town can be safe to say that I am one as well since he tried so hard to defend me and I'd be lynched day 2. But if he gets flipped as town, I may still be mafia and I would still be the lynch target in day 2 since people rate me so highly on their scum list.

Case 2:
If I get flipped tonight and revealed as mafia, do you really think Day_Walker would risk defending me right now if he was mafia, with nearly all votes on me? That would pretty much guarantee him as the next lynch target on day 2. But if I flip town, what does that say about Day_Walker? It could still mean he was mafia trying to get town cred (as chinstrap mentioned), or he was a townie with the correct read on me.

If you read through the 2 cases I present above, case 2 would be offer the most ambuigity for the town since me flipping as town would still put a question mark above Day_Walker's alignment. Case 1 doesn't have this ambiguity since I will still be the lynch target on day 2.
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 07 2014 20:58 GMT
#687
On January 08 2014 05:35 onlywonderboy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 08 2014 01:02 TheChyz wrote:
Everybody has to start to make up their mind. IMO Dragoon himself has not cleared his name, the person that has done that for him is DW. His so called defense after the martyr to me felt like garbage and he has done almost nothing to help scumhunt. The current vote on dnyarri IS in fact useless because apart from the votes onto him, there is no information to be gained whatsoever. However Dragoon has played a terrible game and has done nothing productive to the town, infact all he has done is cause confusion (as well as DW), which in this case is worse than dnyarri. His allignment will also say SO much more than dnyarri's will

From the beginning of the game Dragoon and DW have been defending themselves and it has been very suspicious. Personally I just thing DW knows too much and my vote would be on him because regardless if for some reason Dragoon ends up being town, DW will use the "i told you card". He seems very adamant on dnyarri, but it seems to me like he is just hoping that since I voted for him I would be able to help lead the bandwagon on the lurker or somebody else will. To me I find that DW has also barely helped town scum hunt in the fact that he just tries to attack everybody in the game but only a little bit, never with a vote, and has been defensive about Dragoon from the start. Too much defending Dragoon and not enough scum hunting.

##Vote: Day_Walker

I agree with a lot of what was brought up here. The more and more I think about it the more I start to doubt the Day_Walker/Dragoon pair. This mostly has to do with how things have played out since Dragoon got a large portion of the votes. I agree that Day_Walker has put forth way more effort into defending Dragoon after his doom seemed inevitable and decided to rally his cause around a lurker that it would be hard to gather support for. If Dragoon flips town DW looks clear, but he seems to have gone out of his way to make it actually look this way. If they were both scum it's unlikely he would be defending him so vehemently.


This is basically the entire rationale around my current vote and my 2 page rant. If Dragoon flips town I would bet bandwagon DW like a motherfucker.

However I believe that scum DW could easily do this regardless of theDragoons alignment. If tD flips scum it would appear to be almost suicidal for scum t try and rescue him now and hence only a townie could be defending him (because a townie doesnt think hes scum, where scum do and know he is dead anyway).
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 07 2014 20:59 GMT
#688
Saying all that, my current vote was more about gathering information.

##Unvote
##Vote: theDragoon

Dragoon is by far the best lynch for town
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 07 2014 21:00 GMT
#689
Its a good job I'm IC, my filter is by far the scummiest in game
theDragoon
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada307 Posts
January 07 2014 21:02 GMT
#690
@chinstrap, you just voted for me so I'm not sure you read my latest post, I would like to hear your thoughts on the two cases I presented.
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 07 2014 21:11 GMT
#691
I always thought the scum pair stuff was pure circular thinking fluff and was actually suspicious of the people who proposed it (and still am to some degree).

However the discussion resulting from it quite usefully led us to where we are now. Your 2 cases aren't really cases. Case 1 is a statement, case 2 is a scenario both revolve around the information leading from the lynch.

I don't care about the information leading from the lynch really. You were my top scum read, nothing has changed my mind about that really, so I think we should lynch you.




chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 07 2014 21:13 GMT
#692
And yes I 100% DO THINK that DW would post as he has if you were mafia or town. I have said that like 6 times
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 07 2014 21:14 GMT
#693
Because of this:

[QUOTE]On January 07 2014 23:21 chinstrap wrote:
[QUOTE]On January 07 2014 23:12 suki wrote:
Chinstrap I disagree with you that people who are defending theDragoon at this point are more likely to be innocent, because it could also be a mafia team going 'oh shit, this is getting serious'. The action of switching shouldn't be the issue, but rather the motivations of switching.
[/QUOTE]

Reread this:

[QUOTE]On January 07 2014 21:44 chinstrap wrote:
[QUOTE]On January 07 2014 21:38 sidesprang wrote:
Only way that post makes sense if Day_Walker is mafia is if thedragoon is mafia. With 9 votes on a player, why would you try to change the vote in any way if you were mafia, unless the person with the 9 votes were your mafia buddy.

Atleast that is what pops to my head first when trying to see it from a mafia perspective.[/QUOTE]

Bandwaggoning is the obvious mafia play now. The vote is incred 1 sided, voting for theDragoon doesn't buy towncred now, defending him actually kind of does because you are sticking your head out for no good reason.

The way DW has gone about it though is HIGHLY suspicious, he doesn't target people for any real reason. he just makes a epic long post that says nothing but I want to lunch lurkers cause they lurk even though I dont have a town read on theDragoon.

It is bad free towncred grab.[/QUOTE]
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 07 2014 21:15 GMT
#694
Both cases ends up relatively ambiguous if the lynch target flips town... I don't see the benefit of one over the other.
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 07 2014 21:15 GMT
#695
EBWOP:

Because of this:

On January 07 2014 23:21 chinstrap wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 07 2014 23:12 suki wrote:
Chinstrap I disagree with you that people who are defending theDragoon at this point are more likely to be innocent, because it could also be a mafia team going 'oh shit, this is getting serious'. The action of switching shouldn't be the issue, but rather the motivations of switching.


Reread this:

Show nested quote +
On January 07 2014 21:44 chinstrap wrote:
On January 07 2014 21:38 sidesprang wrote:
Only way that post makes sense if Day_Walker is mafia is if thedragoon is mafia. With 9 votes on a player, why would you try to change the vote in any way if you were mafia, unless the person with the 9 votes were your mafia buddy.

Atleast that is what pops to my head first when trying to see it from a mafia perspective.


Bandwaggoning is the obvious mafia play now. The vote is incred 1 sided, voting for theDragoon doesn't buy towncred now, defending him actually kind of does because you are sticking your head out for no good reason.

The way DW has gone about it though is HIGHLY suspicious, he doesn't target people for any real reason. he just makes a epic long post that says nothing but I want to lunch lurkers cause they lurk even though I dont have a town read on theDragoon.

It is bad free towncred grab.


I'm saying not saying the act of defending = innocence or guilt. I am saying that defending is a way to buy towncred at this point because it is inherently going against the tide (and the innocent child thanks to the timing of the 2 posts i have issue with)

My problem is with the way DW goes about it and how he draws his conclusions. The whole lurker issue is counterproductive and pro mafia as I stated multiple pages ago.
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 07 2014 21:16 GMT
#696
Balla you are so wrong.

If theDragoon flips town I'm putting my house on scum DW
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 07 2014 21:17 GMT
#697
But its a moot point anyway. Forget about information, lynch da scum
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
January 07 2014 21:18 GMT
#698
That's fine lol, doesn't make it more or less ambiguous... FWIW your logic is 100% sound... it's just that i'm not one to come to a decision about situations like that as fast as you clearly.
chinstrap
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom253 Posts
January 07 2014 21:20 GMT
#699
I got to get it all out before I take a bullet like a man tonight
LoneMeow
Profile Joined June 2013
Finland1396 Posts
January 07 2014 21:20 GMT
#700
Day 1 vote count:

Balla24 (0): chinstrap
TheChyz (0): chinstrap, suki, theDragoon, dnyarri
JonnyLaw (0): Balla24
Day_Walker (1): TheChyz, BigDad, chinstrap, TheChyz
onlywonderboy (0): Balla24, theDragoon
theDragoon (9): dnyarri, Balla24, onlywonderboy, chinstrap, theDragoon, JonnyLaw, Derrida, suki, sidesprang, chinstrap
BigDad (0): suki
dnyarri (2): TheChyz, Day_Walker, BigDad

Not voting (1): Asuna

Currently, theDragoon is set to be lynched.
Deadline is Tuesday, Jan 07 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) (in ). Voting is mandatory!

If there are errors, please let us know.
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