EPTNewbie Mini Mafia LI - Page 33
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Derrida
2885 Posts
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
There is only one reason to lynch someone, and that is to catch scum. You do not lynch to get rid of lurkers. You do not lynch to "find information". You lynch to catch scum. I know Day_Walker has posted his reasons why he thinks dnyarri is his #1 scum pick. I'll be looking at that soon. Anyone else who has switched their vote to someone else at this stage of the game because they're scared of a 'mafia bandwagon' will also be looked at closely by me. Chinstrap I disagree with you that people who are defending theDragoon at this point are more likely to be innocent, because it could also be a mafia team going 'oh shit, this is getting serious'. The action of switching shouldn't be the issue, but rather the motivations of switching. Anyways, I'll read the thread and post some thoughts in a bit. This whole 'lynching for information' and thing is just so wrong I don't even know where to start. | ||
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chinstrap
United Kingdom253 Posts
On January 07 2014 23:12 suki wrote: Chinstrap I disagree with you that people who are defending theDragoon at this point are more likely to be innocent, because it could also be a mafia team going 'oh shit, this is getting serious'. The action of switching shouldn't be the issue, but rather the motivations of switching. Reread this: On January 07 2014 21:44 chinstrap wrote: Bandwaggoning is the obvious mafia play now. The vote is incred 1 sided, voting for theDragoon doesn't buy towncred now, defending him actually kind of does because you are sticking your head out for no good reason. The way DW has gone about it though is HIGHLY suspicious, he doesn't target people for any real reason. he just makes a epic long post that says nothing but I want to lunch lurkers cause they lurk even though I dont have a town read on theDragoon. It is bad free towncred grab. I'm saying not saying the act of defending = innocence or guilt. I am saying that defending is a way to buy towncred at this point because it is inherently going against the tide (and the innocent child thanks to the timing of the 2 posts i have issue with) My problem is with the way DW goes about it and how he draws his conclusions. The whole lurker issue is counterproductive and pro mafia as I stated multiple pages ago. | ||
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chinstrap
United Kingdom253 Posts
If i were mafia 2 pages ago I would have been defending theDragoon regardless of his aligment. That in itself isn't a mafia play, it could also be a true town play. That isn't my point that is the circumstance. My problem is the massive post that, I repeat, makes little in the way of conclusions apart from these are lurkers and I want to lynch one of them because this one is 'the scummiest' by some fluff analysis. The whole thing is shouting mafia at me in the face with a loudspeaker | ||
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chinstrap
United Kingdom253 Posts
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
I'm saying not saying the act of defending = innocence or guilt. I am saying that defending is a way to buy towncred at this point because it is inherently going against the tide Agreed. | ||
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chinstrap
United Kingdom253 Posts
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chinstrap
United Kingdom253 Posts
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
There are only two things that stand out to me in his filter: if Dragoon is scum, we can get him later. As stated in my above post, I do not agree with this line of thought at all. If the Dragoon is scum, then we lynch him. That said, you're arguing that Dragoon is not scum, so your line of thought is consistent. I don't mean that the lurking mafia led the bandwagon by making cases, I mean that they did the bandwagoning I saw two people that I suspect as scum, dnyarri and OWB, contribute early on in the Dragoon lynch (votes 1 and 3) for reasons that didn't look strong to me (again my take is different here, since I'm the only town who knows OWB's accusation was completely untrue). The Town was already suspicious of Dragoon, the lynch took off, and sidesprang capped it off with another scummy-feeling vote. Here you're saying that scum did the bandwagoning (getting on later in the votes), but you're also stipulating that since dnyarri and OWB contributed early on in Dragoon's lynch, that they started the bandwagon. My thoughts on this are that bandwagoning is a weak argument one way or another, and what's more important are the reasons for hopping on or off the bandwagon. TheChyz, I can't say I agree with your analysis of Day_Walker, and at the moment I read him as townie. I can see the argument for theDragoon being a frustrated townie, so I don't find his defense of theDragoon suspicious. I just really think theDragoon is going to flip scum, for all the reasons I mentioned in my previous posts. | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
On January 07 2014 17:49 Balla24 wrote: one thing about dynarri that i noticed in that big post: read suki as town because they were both doing a lot of the same stuff... feels weird that he specifically points out that last part... why does that matter...? FEELS ODD MAN I already pointed this out in a previous vote and mentioned that it looks like a possible attempt to buddy up with me. Day_Walker pointed something interesting out though: This most heavily rests on my scum read for dnyarri, and the fact that dnyarri placed the very first for Dragoon. Based on the vote, I think it unlikely that both dnyarri AND Dragoon are scum, and this turns my scum read for dnyarri into a town read for Dragoon. And for the reasons I just gave, this sounds a lot more plausible to me than to any other townie. This actually makes sense. At the time that dnyarri switched his vote, theDragoon was pretty much not under any pressure. An insta-switch to a bus on a mafia teammate seems highly highly unlikely. But that only means that it's extremely unlikely that both of them are scum. I really hate the fact that dnyarri only has three posts, and his play has been sending up red flags, but I just can't say he is more scummy to me than theDragoon. | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
On January 07 2014 18:36 BigDad wrote: My reads for suspicious player currently stand against Dnyarri and theDragoon with less doubt on Day_Walker for his pro-town stance on lynching those who aren't contributing. Lynch to catch scum. I think I've reiterated that enough. Also Day_Walker clearly stated he wanted to catch scummy lurkers, not just people who don't contribute. I'm going to have to go with either theDragoon or dnyarri. BigDad, given Day_Walker/my reasoning that dnyarri was the first to vote theDragoon, do you still think both of them are likely to be scum? If not, who do you think is more likely? | ||
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TheChyz
Canada238 Posts
From the beginning of the game Dragoon and DW have been defending themselves and it has been very suspicious. Personally I just thing DW knows too much and my vote would be on him because regardless if for some reason Dragoon ends up being town, DW will use the "i told you card". He seems very adamant on dnyarri, but it seems to me like he is just hoping that since I voted for him I would be able to help lead the bandwagon on the lurker or somebody else will. To me I find that DW has also barely helped town scum hunt in the fact that he just tries to attack everybody in the game but only a little bit, never with a vote, and has been defensive about Dragoon from the start. Too much defending Dragoon and not enough scum hunting. ##Vote: Day_Walker | ||
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TheChyz
Canada238 Posts
##Vote: Day_Walker | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
Several recent quotes from Balla: + Show Spoiler + This is the most one sided lynch ever. I'm sorry but this should seriously be making you weary (suki/jonnylaw). The people who are not voting seem to also be tentatively saying that they are ok with the lynch if it were to happen now, besides Day_walker who probably is thinking along the same lines of this tbh. I'm searching for a new target. I really don't like how hard you lurked today sidesprang, so I'd lynch you just based on that, but other than that, I find Derrida pretty scummy. Ugh it's just so hard because I totally can see how scum would buss their teammate in this current situation. It's different than other one-sided lynches in the previous games because of how dragoon shut-down. Like I would totally buss him.. If I were scum, I would probably begin to buss him after he self-voted, so i'd look @ Derrida, suki and sidesprang (if im jsut looking at it chronologically, jonnylaw too) I mean, let's be honest, there is 100% for sure scum in the people who already voted him. Having them have a forced hand on what they think about him might be a good thing. It's gonna be a weight on EVERYONE's back, not just towns. I agree that the lynch on theDragoon is going smoothly, however that could just be mafia seeing the writing on the wall and deciding not to oppose. I agree that the smoothness of the lynch needs to be considered, however in the end we should still be lynching the scummiest person. Do you disagree? Also, you were the second person to vote for theDragoon, and your vote hasn't changed since then. I just want to clarify, do you still find theDragoon to be the most scummy? | ||
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
Balla24 (0): TheChyz (0): JonnyLaw (0): Day_Walker (2): onlywonderboy (0): theDragoon (8): dnyarri, Balla24, onlywonderboy, BigDad (0): dnyarri (2): Not voting (1): Asuna Currently, theDragoon is set to be lynched. Deadline is Tuesday, Jan 07 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) (in ). Voting is mandatory! If there are errors, please let us know. | ||
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Derrida
2885 Posts
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TheChyz
Canada238 Posts
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suki
Canada1159 Posts
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sidesprang
Norway1033 Posts
As it looks now either theDragoon, Day_Walker or a lurker will be lynched. So I tried to look into those so I could place my vote in a place where it will hopefully matter. And also provide the rationale for my vote. Regarding the lurkers, as I said before I do not think its wise to lynch a lurker just because they are lurking. I also do think that all is posting enough so we can form reads later on. Votes will help with providing reads on them. So i'm not really to worried about this atm. Day_Walker When I read his filter I see a possibility for him being scum, however I think its way more likely for him to be scum if theDragoon is scum. I feel he gave him a weak townread in the start with his list. And when BigDad says he find Day_Walker and theDragon both became overly defensive about it. And also as chinstrap pointed out making a scumcase for the lurkers and a towncase for theDragoon, is something that very well can be done as scum regardless of theDragoon's allignment. And the more I think about it, I think it's more likely to be done if he is scum. If he makes a case for theDragoon is town then if he flips town he gets cred. If he flips scum then he tried to save his buddy. I do however feel this is very circumstantial and I would not feel comfortable lynching him, but this is what I read when I tried to view him as scum. theDragoon He seems overly defensive and to scared when stuff is coming his way. If I counted correct he had 4 votes on him when he martyred. I'm really not a big fan of people voting for themselves or giving up, and the fact that he did it so early aswell makes it worse imo. I think it felt a lot worse to him than it was because he is scum. This is also how I feel with a lot of his posts prior. The whole "him trusting DW" and them being a scum togheter just feels like he is way to scared of attention than he should be. I'm not sure why he turned and started defending himself again, I would not be suprised if he got talked into it by the scum QT. His defence is also weak, I dont feel he is trying to make a good case for himself, and actually prove he is town. Half of the post he tries to refute some points, and the other half he is just pointing fingers. Atm he knows he is on the chopping block, but he left the thread again which makes me think he have given up again. I will keep my vote on theDragoon. I feel he is the most likely to flip scum. As I said I will leave and prolly not come back before deadline so if anyone got question ask them fast. | ||
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