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On October 02 2013 12:58 JonnyLaw wrote:
I think they're more of a gamble. If we get one we win. I just think playerboy is scummy. It's late for me I'llo give full reads tomorrow before voting time. I hope you're around then if not, pick your vote and give a reason and I'll evaluate it. I work early in the morning tomorrow.
Cmon man give it a better effort than that... poke more!! Don't gamble. You get one you win, you miss and you lose.
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On October 02 2013 13:00 Balla24 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 02 2013 09:50 Zaragon wrote:On October 02 2013 08:53 Balla24 wrote:
Dude what does this even mean??????????? This entire game is about lynching the suspicious people. What else is there to go on besides suspicion? Why would you lynch someone if they aren't suspicious? The whole goal of town is to get the scum to become suspicious so that they can find out and then kill them before they kill town.
This is such a shit show. It seems to me like everybody is just bussing everybody because fuck everybody else. Please, zaragon, jonnylaw ASK MORE QUESTIONS. We're not going to get anywhere with you guys re-iterating the facts that we all know. You need to get people to share their thoughts on different subjects so that the suspects can possibly slip in their reasoning. This is one thing that Heavenz (yes, i'm going to say it again) has yet to provide. ANY reasoning for ANYTHING. Force it out! Of all of us, not just Heavenz. It's LYLO after 2 days and scum's job is to not appear suspicious throughout the game. It's not as easy as who looks most suspicious. I do have another question to ask. Balla, why have you read stormtemplar town all game and showed minimal suspicion about him? After the whole roleblock conversation yesterday, can you really buy that he simply forgot to use his? He was active in the roleblocking discussion, obviously. Other than that, I need to see playerboy's take on what he missed of the game and his reads now. No, it's not that easy. But the whole process of this game is to make it so scum players become suspicious enough that you can lynch them. If a player isn't ever suspicious you will never catch them. Just because their actions aren't suspicious by themselves doesn't mean that together with something else they aren't suspicious either. At the end of the day, it will be who looks most suspicious, regardless of whether or not they are most suspicious now, otherwise why would you vote for them. Anyways, I don't even know why we're talking about this. It's silly. This is the kind of random rants we can't really afford right now. I shouldn't have brought it up. To me, the case on stormtemplar was very very weak on day 1 and day 2 the attention was somewhere else. There wasn't much substance behind it and I couldn't find anything particularly scummy. Today however things are totally different. I can't believe him. Just can't. Koshi calculated the chance of a setup like this being 2.5% or something like that. That's so low. I can't really believe him straight up based on that possibility, but on the other hand the situation where he is ACTUALLY town roleblocker and he ACTUALLY forgot to roleblock just makes more sense to me with the way the game has flowed and the way he has played in general. The timing all makes sense. Everything else makes sense. The situation where he is scum roleblocker seems so contrived and unreasonable. It doesn't make sense. Why would stormtemplar roleblock Jonnylaw in this case and then why would he claim he forgot to roleblock? I don't know. I'm a in a weird situation here where BOTH cases are incredibly incredibly low probability, in one case it's due to the way the game is setup and in the other case it's just because of how it all fits together.
I agree with that to some extent.
However, the roleblock on JonnyLaw would only be for appearances, to show a scum RB was still in the game. On the surface, it looks like a solution for a scum stormtemplar after the mistake of claiming town RB. Thing is, as far as I know, stormtemplar could be scum RB and have had no idea that if he claimed town RB it meant a scum RB had to exist as well. He might have scrambled to look at C9++ when it was first mentioned, realized his mistake, and come up with a solution. There are so many possibilities as to how his mistake (whichever it was) happened.
If I went by the flow of the game and how and what people have said, playerboy/heavenz would be my scum team of choice. Just, a town RB Stormtemplar not even attempting to block the NK, especially if he expected to die, it's hard to swallow.
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I totally understand. It's literally the worst way to lose. I'm not sure the roleblock on jonnylaw is the best move in his position, or even a good move at all. What about just roleblocking Heavenz again? He would have kept the possibility of Heavenz being scum RB and he could have covered it with the fact that he was trying to kill 2 birds with one stone (possibly block a kill and also a roleblock) and also trying to clear his name as town RB. Obviously this wouldn't be the brightest town RB play but it would certainly (IMO, and no offense stormtemplar) match his play. Again though, I'm just trying to think logically through this and understand what possibilities there are.
Can I ask you a question you asked me previously though? If he is town RB and did forget the roleblock, do you think it fits with his play the rest of the game? You've probably already thought about it, but putting thoughts out there sometimes catches things you don't normally. Just interested to see
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On October 02 2013 13:29 Balla24 wrote:
I totally understand. It's literally the worst way to lose. I'm not sure the roleblock on jonnylaw is the best move in his position, or even a good move at all. What about just roleblocking Heavenz again? He would have kept the possibility of Heavenz being scum RB and he could have covered it with the fact that he was trying to kill 2 birds with one stone (possibly block a kill and also a roleblock) and also trying to clear his name as town RB. Obviously this wouldn't be the brightest town RB play but it would certainly (IMO, and no offense stormtemplar) match his play. Again though, I'm just trying to think logically through this and understand what possibilities there are.
Can I ask you a question you asked me previously though? If he is town RB and did forget the roleblock, do you think it fits with his play the rest of the game? You've probably already thought about it, but putting thoughts out there sometimes catches things you don't normally. Just interested to see
It's not a good move, that's the problem, nothing around it is a good move (unless I suppose he's scum and manages to confuse us somehow). If he's scum and had fake claimed, he should've claimed he RBed heavenz or playerboy and that they out-metaed him by how they performed the NK.
As for whether forgetting to RB fits his play to my eyes, yes, it fits my town read on him. But that same day, before he stopped posting, he was discussing the RB situation with us and about RB being able to stop NK... After that, it doesn't fit with my read on him. He was clearly emotional about the game in his defense speech earlier, so just deciding that he was dying and it didn't matter if he even tried to stop the NK makes no sense.
Maybe, maybe I can believe it. The question is just if we want to gamble that much on basically a personality read on stormtemplar. Actually, does he have any previous games anywhere?
By the way, my main priority is still to see a case of some kind from playerboy before I decide on my vote.
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Sure. Very reasonable.
I'm glad you're trying to see all the sides Zaragon. I'm going to head off to bed in a few minutes here. I'll check again before going though to make sure there's no more questions.
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Ok I'm going to try to wildly speculate on scum teams and QT conversations.
Balla and stormtemplar coming up to the NK. What does this QT actually look like? Oh crap, mistake claiming town roleblocker, what now? Someone being AFK most of the night and a haphazard decision on how to solve it? Maybe suspicion will still stick to heavenz or playerboy?
Alternatively, heavenz/playerboy. stormtemplar has claimed RB. If they kill him, they pretty much point an arrow at themselves as mafia. If they RB him and kill someone else (me or Koshi presumably) they know they can argue with stormtemplar, he will come across as quite genuine at getting RBed however. So they flip a coin, try to RB someone else (potential Doc perhaps) and hope stormtemplar hits heavenz instead of playerboy? 50/50% lose the game just to make stormtemplar appear less genuine when he argues for himself?
You know, something doesn't make sense in either of those conversations, and I almost think one of the unlikeliest scum teams that we've dismissed out of pure probability could be it. JonnyLaw's odd unwillingness to lynch heavenz over playerboy sets off a red flag in my head; I need to go back and check why I dismissed them. If heavenz expected himself or playerboy to get roleblocked, signaling JonnyLaw (as scum mate) to say he was roleblocked would be the perfect scum play. Discredits stormtemplar after the night, ostensibly clears JonnyLaw and possibly heavenz as well depending on stormtemplar's target. And things would make a lot more sense.
Checking this theory as well.
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Votecount!
everybody (0): nobody
nobody (∞): everybody
The deadline is in .
Remember, voting is mandatory! Place your votes in the voting thread here.
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On October 02 2013 06:24 heavenz wrote:
I know, I played carelessly, I thought I am just a VT, if I die, what ever. But the situation arose and many modkills, and we're suddenly at the end of the game.
If you belive that Stormtemplar is mafia, it's stormtemplar and balla24, I just ask you to read my longer post again.
You need to understand the this is not a rating of who is the most suspicious, we just have to kill the mafia. Read the last game, umasi was mafia, he wasn't suspicious at all.
Playerboy mentioned that he played with Umasi in aonther game where Umasi was scum as well, you will not think he is mafia because he is more town than all of town.
I don't have any connection or responsibilty for playerboy, on day1 I assumed that the mafia was playerboy & stormtemplar. I made a case with JonnyLaw on Stormtemplar and I made a case with Playerboy on Onlywunderboy.
I think that Stormtemplar is scum, and when stormtemplar is scum he is scum with balla24.
You played carelessly? That is an understatement, you went from let's hunt scum! To fuck this game to idk we should kill someone. You've been the most inconsistent player this game.
You thought "I am just a VT, if I die, what ever."??? Why would you ever think this way as town, it makes no sense to me. Do you even realise how far back it sets us if you die and you flip town? What you're doing is just a horrible way of playing town, you're supposed to prove your innocence, not think fuck this kill me so you guys know I'm town.
You misread, I never claimed I played a game with Umasi, I was however spectating the game and found it extremely odd that Umasi was never targeted for a nightkill, and people kept just blindly following him which ultimately became their downfall. Zaragon mentioned that he read the thread aswell if I remember correctly which led me to developing that Zaragon/Balla24/onlywonderboy scumteam theory.
Sorry guys for not posting much, I'll go through the last few pages again and pick some posts to quote/answer/talk about.
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By the way what are the chances of there being a serial killer in our current scenario? I'm really confused and I don't really get this C9++ stuff.
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On October 02 2013 17:08 playerboy345 wrote:
By the way what are the chances of there being a serial killer in our current scenario? I'm really confused and I don't really get this C9++ stuff.
It's almost impossible at this point.
If I remember the math right it would mean that stormtemplar is a real town roleblocker, we have a doctor, GF and an SK--that everyone still in the game is a role.
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Koshi mentioned:
On September 30 2013 21:17 Koshi wrote:
heavenz If stormtemplar is a scum roleblocker the setup is TTTTBVC Remember that scum roleblocker does not give 2 extra B's in the draft.
So that means that Bella24 is just a goon and not a GF for your theory. Which doesn't change anything.
But it is interesting that you come to the conclusion that there is a GF. I wonder if this is a scumslip because stormtemplar is really a town roleblocker and you know there is a GF. You just swapped the names around.
After which he posts:
On September 30 2013 21:20 Koshi wrote:
I am going to believe stormtemplar tbh. There was no reason for him to claim RB after a RB already flipped. wtf the chances of this setup are low. like REALLY LOW. I can't believe this shit...
Later he posts:
On October 01 2013 03:24 Koshi wrote:
We know all roles unless they lie about their role...
storm claimed second town RB.
Which has the lowest chance of happening. I almost want to lynch the guy.
These posts plus the fact that he "forgot" to RB someone is scummy in my opinion. He might have been scared that Koshi would figure him out and decided to NK him in the hopes that people would attack someone else.
I have the feeling heavenz is trying to get me lynched first to "clear" himself of suspicion. He just keeps saying stuff like playerboy town 100%, effectively drawing attention to me.
heavenz' filter looks way scummier compared to stormtemplars, but stormtemplar "forgetting" to RB is just so unbelievable that it makes him look scummy :/
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On October 02 2013 17:56 playerboy345 wrote:Koshi mentioned: Show nested quote +On September 30 2013 21:17 Koshi wrote:
heavenz If stormtemplar is a scum roleblocker the setup is TTTTBVC Remember that scum roleblocker does not give 2 extra B's in the draft.
So that means that Bella24 is just a goon and not a GF for your theory. Which doesn't change anything.
But it is interesting that you come to the conclusion that there is a GF. I wonder if this is a scumslip because stormtemplar is really a town roleblocker and you know there is a GF. You just swapped the names around. After which he posts: Show nested quote +On September 30 2013 21:20 Koshi wrote:
I am going to believe stormtemplar tbh. There was no reason for him to claim RB after a RB already flipped. wtf the chances of this setup are low. like REALLY LOW. I can't believe this shit... Later he posts: Show nested quote +On October 01 2013 03:24 Koshi wrote:
We know all roles unless they lie about their role...
storm claimed second town RB.
Which has the lowest chance of happening. I almost want to lynch the guy.
These posts plus the fact that he "forgot" to RB someone is scummy in my opinion. He might have been scared that Koshi would figure him out and decided to NK him in the hopes that people would attack someone else. I have the feeling heavenz is trying to get me lynched first to "clear" himself of suspicion. He just keeps saying stuff like playerboy town 100%, effectively drawing attention to me. heavenz' filter looks way scummier compared to stormtemplars, but stormtemplar "forgetting" to RB is just so unbelievable that it makes him look scummy :/
Yes basically the stars need to have aligned for us to roll BBB, hit the mafia blocker, out-metaed mafia to neither block nor kill the town blocker, and him forgetting to block anyone... it'd be like a perfect storm working for scum.
I'm still not sure I can vote anyone except stormtemplar, though. The circumstances point at him as scum just about as clearly as anything possibly can in a Mafia game.
Oh, by the way, regarding SKs: even if stormtemplar would be mafia roleblocker and we would have a doctor, it means an SK as well, I just realized. So not out of the realm of possibility.
But no evidence of a doctor and it's LYLO so doesn't really matter today, have to lynch scum.
Oh, and I checked why I had dismissed JonnyLaw/heavenz for mafia; it was before stormtemplar claimed town roleblocker. It's possible if stormtemplar's claim is true. They would have needed some careful risks to get here, though. Irrelevant for now I suppose except as an explanation for the odd night event.
We should lynch heavenz or stormtemplar tonight. Just in case I miss the deadline (I have some real life complications), I'll bet with the odds rather than my gut for now:
##Vote stormtemplar
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EBWOP: No, actually I had just made a mistake dismissing JonnyLaw/heavenz to begin with. Miscounting the roleblocks. Was never impossible. Still feels unlikely, just want to be clear and correct myself now.
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I just read through JonnyLaw's filter and he has been attacking heavenz all game, I can understand mafia sometimes attack their teammates to look like they are operating seperately but wanting to lynch heavenz from the start and keep that thought going through the whole game? I don't know, seems unlikely to me that scum would do that, way too risky.
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It's unlikely, just something that struck me when I was trying to figure out how the night actions happened the way they did. There was one perspective from which they would have made perfect sense and been the ideal choice--heavenz/JonnyLaw.
Strongly bussed, risky scum play earlier in the game, yes. I'm not putting much time into investigating it further; the only detail from their filters that hints possible scum team is JonnyLaw saying that he would vote heavenz but then going for you playerboy. Anyway, you yourself have more ties to heavenz. And focus needs to be on whether we believe heavenz or stormtemplar is the scum roleblocker, either way.
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I wish I could somehow prove that I have nothing to do with heavenz :/
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that's the thing, I wish you would read what I said, or even consider it.
The fact is that one mafia wasn't participating in the game ever, this means, everyone knows after it was discussed day1 that this person will be modkilled.
So scum was basicly one down already, in what circumstance what you buss your teammate on day1 when you are already 1 man down, like... never?
I mean mafia has to be retarded as hell to get lynched on day1.
Balla24 defendes stormtemplar dispite everything, right away. I pointed those posts out, just read them. The goal of the mafia will be to surivve day1 with as few casualties as possible, it will make the game for them harder already having one guy modkilled, you wouldn't let the otherone go down carelessly. (reread my longer post).
anyway for me this is an obvious vote ##stormtemplar
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Welp. Still no new information except now we are considering Jonnylaw too? T_T
And since we are starting the votes, not so obvious for me but I'm going with my gut: ##Vote: heavenz
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why do you think I am mafia?
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What? I've explained so many times and you always ignore it and never give any reasoning for any of it. You could easily just read my filter to see what I think of you.
You've flip flopped on so many subjects, had possible scum slips, given up at inopportune moments (LYLO), it fits with the proposed role setups. Your voting pattern matches that of a possible scum. Everything makes more sense when you are mafia. You even seem more scum then everyone else in this situation when everybody is defending themselves because you keep saying things that you shouldn't do as a townie when you are about to get lynched (when i bring up onlywonderboy and tell you that you dug your own grave you just give up and STILL don't explain it and give me a bullshit 1 liner).
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EPT
