EPTA new day has dawned.
Bereft, the roleblocker was found dead!
D2 voting deadline is in .
Newbie Mini Mafia XLVIII - Page 15
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cakepie
985 Posts
A new day has dawned. Bereft, the roleblocker was found dead! D2 voting deadline is in . | ||
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JonnyLaw
United States3482 Posts
Bottom line is that we need more information and lynching an inactive player is not going to give us anything. And as for nervous posting, well not being able to edit a post is very hard. I read and reread what I have written and then post it and realize I have more on my mind. I'll get back to my reads in another post shortly but I want to look more into why someone wanted bereft out of the game. Which questions do we need to ask to read into it more? He voted jayte rather early and stuck with the vote. This is not a very good tell for anything in my opinion. He criticized myself a bit, and balla very harshly. Is this trying to be a clever ruse to try and start a bandwagon against balla? I'll look at it more as I go through the filters. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
On September 28 2013 06:57 playerboy345 wrote: Also note that Balla24 switches his vote to MLuneth aswell. He says he's the only suspicious person besides the afkers, while I can agree that his posting was indeed odd, it doesn't explain his sudden switch. He agrees with BajaBlood: What BajaBlood says is don't lynch MLuneth because if he is scum it'll be easy to tell. WHY DO YOU VOTE HIM IF YOU AGREE THAT LETTING HIM LIVE FOR ANOTHER DAY WILL MAKE IT EASY TO TELL IF HE IS SCUM OR NOT? I'm sorry but that just makes absolutely 0 sense to me. I wouldn't call my switch sudden. I started off that morning describing why I thought MLuneth was suspicious. During the voting process, we were at a point in time where people were saying that Blurry, xIvanJ and Jayte were going to get modkilled for sure. I was agreeing with Bajablood on this post: On September 27 2013 06:42 BajaBlood wrote: My read on Mluneth actually leans towards him being a misguided townie. It's not the most urgent topic we have right now since he doesn't seem to be at the top of the list, so I will write up why I think this sometime soon. But I don't think he should be the lynch candidate of the night. However not on the last sentence obviously since I ended up voting him. At the time of my EBWOP with the vote (i had meant to vote in my previous post already) I hadn't even seen the post that you quoted and was simply posting what was going through my head. In the end, I decided to vote him because I thought he was scummy (for the reasons I had opened the morning with), nobody else appeared scummy and the inactives were going to get modkilled. Like I said, it probably would have been better to go for a no-lynch (not probably, for sure would have been better) but I chalk that up to inexperience. | ||
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
On September 28 2013 06:57 playerboy345 wrote: So I've been reading through this thread once again and I saw something that striked me as odd and wanted to post it here and hear your thoughts on it. These three vote for Blurry, why? Zaragon votes him based on Blurry's meta. In the previous game Blurry had a good opening post much like in this game, the difference between this game and the previous game is that in the previous game Blurry continued to contribute and in the current game he didn't. This is just such an easy thing to pick on - the reason that he hasn't really contributed that much is because he has been inactive. onlywonderboy picks it as a safe bet because he won't be able to be online for the deadline. I don't understand why Balla24 is voting for Blurry here though, he didn't seem all that interested in Blurry before, so why pick him over Jayte/xIvanJ who are just as inactive as Blurry. Why is Zaragon comfortable with switching his vote? He says it's because Blurry doesn't seem to be coming to vote. Guess who else didn't come to vote? MLuneth. So why change your vote? Why not just keep it on Blurry as your case seems to be the same on both of them? Also: In this post you claim you read his post as soft-claiming vigi. WHY THE HELL WOULD YOU EVER VOTE FOR HIM IF YOU HAD EVEN THE SLIGHTEST DOUBT THAT HE COULD BE A VIGI? This makes 0 sense to me, no fucking clue what you were thinking here. Why didn't you just leave your vote on Blurry if that was the case? Also note that Balla24 switches his vote to MLuneth aswell. He says he's the only suspicious person besides the afkers, while I can agree that his posting was indeed odd, it doesn't explain his sudden switch. He agrees with BajaBlood: What BajaBlood says is don't lynch MLuneth because if he is scum it'll be easy to tell. WHY DO YOU VOTE HIM IF YOU AGREE THAT LETTING HIM LIVE FOR ANOTHER DAY WILL MAKE IT EASY TO TELL IF HE IS SCUM OR NOT? I'm sorry but that just makes absolutely 0 sense to me. onlywonderboy: You say Blurry flew under the radar for you and that is why you voted him. Then what about the other inactives, you are not gonna tell me they didn't flew under the radar, right? So why DID you vote for Blurry? Were you in a hurry because you had to leave and left with a half-assed post? Or did you just decide to vote for him because your mafia teammates (assuming both Balla24 and Zaragon are scum) did so you could boost the votes in your favor? I don't got much proof and this is basically just theorycrafting but I think Zaragon/Balla24/onlywonderboy might be our scum combo. Let me know what you guys think. I said from the start I might want to swap back to MLuneth. I explained my plan of pressuring Blurry and MLuneth, and I stand by that I felt both were scummy. As I said the plan collapsed because neither of them came in to say a thing or even vote. I never even considered MLuneth might not show up for it, and I only thought it was a remote possibility Blurry might not. What was I supposed to do in that situation? Imagine you had the same reads and the same plan. I thought MLuneth was mafia. I was sure I could town-read him early in a defense under pressure, if he was just bad town. What was my motivation as scum to swap my vote? It doesn't make sense. I could've NKed MLuneth if I had been scum and role-read him. I play with incomplete information as town, and made a mistake (again, largely because these players didn't even show up to play the game). Your post, again, is something oddly timed right as night phase was ending, but I'm not sure yet what else to read into it. I'd welcome input on both you and myself. | ||
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Bereft
United States1007 Posts
 [g]is there an obs qt I can get access to?[/g] | ||
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JonnyLaw
United States3482 Posts
Let me start from a couple days ago. In his write up on the players he claims + Show Spoiler [stormtemplar] + I think he is town, he made himself very clear on the lurker subject and asked me to elaborate when I wasn't clear enough. He also questioned the same thing I did - Zaragon not using arguments on his opinion of me. I haven't read anything of him yet that I could even consider a scumread, he just tries to force information out of others. At this point stormtemplar is yet to be confronted by anyone. Yet storm and playerboy casually agree with each other on a few points later. This means nothing if you think stormtemplar is town, which I do not believe. Fine, more evidence for you non-believers. On September 27 2013 06:41 playerboy345 wrote: Oh and might I add: Right now I'm thinking about switching my vote to Bereft as his last post basically has 0 content and he votes on a "safe bet" just cause why not? It's easy to vote for a safe bet - you don't have to do any analysis, just sit back and watch people die. He drops this subject and even goes so far as to praise bereft for his good read on onlywonderboy a few short hours later. On September 27 2013 16:22 playerboy345 wrote: Thank god I'm not the only one that thinks onlywonderboy is suspicious/stormtemplar doesn't look that scummy. I was getting worried :/ I'll look into BajaBlood's filter later today. I feel like he's trying to lay the blame elsewhere when bereft comes up dead in the morning. In bereft's last reads he's pressuring balla slightly and pushing playerboy a little bit. A couple posts ago I said myself as well but I was wrong when I reread the lines. All of this combined with his very timely post before we lynched MLuneth make me very suspicious. Note that was posted two minutes before the deadline. He had three other posts in the thirty minutes prior so clearly he was around at the lynch deadline and only chose to express his opinion once it was too late and did not elaborate as to why he felt that way. On September 27 2013 06:58 playerboy345 wrote: I'm not too comfortable with the MLuneth lynch to be honest, I really don't get that much of a scum read from him :/ Oh yeah, that onlywonderboy vote was odd when clearly he was not going to be lynched. There was time to jump on the blurry bandwagon easily. This may have swayed people to stay on blurry instead of going to MLuneth. It just doesn't add up. Zaragon expressed his views on why lynching MLuneth more articulately than I managed. Where he felt like blurry was a good pressure target, I felt similarly with stormtemplar. Blurry was never active so I didn't see an incentive to push him. Storm had been fairly active so I still think I had a very good target for pressure and lynching if he did not respond well enough. When the time came, not enough of you agreed with me. | ||
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
Except everyone didn't even vote. I'm trying to figure out how significant this is. On Bereft dying, it was probably a good kill since he looked very towny, did stick on Jayte in the voting fiasco and might not be a doctor save. | ||
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JonnyLaw
United States3482 Posts
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JonnyLaw
United States3482 Posts
He gives me a hard time, basically repeating what "pro town zaragon" said a couple posts earlier. This is fair enough since I tried to have him lynched. Then he tries to separate himself from playerboy. And for the rest he essentially says nothing or repeats what other have said in a non-accusatory manner. I just think he wants to fly under the radar and get attention away from the ties he had to playerboy and anything to do with bereft. A "he's town I wouldn't dislike him!" type of post. | ||
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
On September 28 2013 08:25 JonnyLaw wrote: The more I read playerboy345's filter the more I think he is mafioso. Let me start from a couple days ago. In his write up on the players he claims + Show Spoiler [stormtemplar] + I think he is town, he made himself very clear on the lurker subject and asked me to elaborate when I wasn't clear enough. He also questioned the same thing I did - Zaragon not using arguments on his opinion of me. I haven't read anything of him yet that I could even consider a scumread, he just tries to force information out of others. At this point stormtemplar is yet to be confronted by anyone. Yet storm and playerboy casually agree with each other on a few points later. This means nothing if you think stormtemplar is town, which I do not believe. Fine, more evidence for you non-believers. He drops this subject and even goes so far as to praise bereft for his good read on onlywonderboy a few short hours later. I feel like he's trying to lay the blame elsewhere when bereft comes up dead in the morning. In bereft's last reads he's pressuring balla slightly and pushing playerboy a little bit. A couple posts ago I said myself as well but I was wrong when I reread the lines. All of this combined with his very timely post before we lynched MLuneth make me very suspicious. Note that was posted two minutes before the deadline. He had three other posts in the thirty minutes prior so clearly he was around at the lynch deadline and only chose to express his opinion once it was too late and did not elaborate as to why he felt that way. Oh yeah, that onlywonderboy vote was odd when clearly he was not going to be lynched. There was time to jump on the blurry bandwagon easily. This may have swayed people to stay on blurry instead of going to MLuneth. It just doesn't add up. Zaragon expressed his views on why lynching MLuneth more articulately than I managed. Where he felt like blurry was a good pressure target, I felt similarly with stormtemplar. Blurry was never active so I didn't see an incentive to push him. Storm had been fairly active so I still think I had a very good target for pressure and lynching if he did not respond well enough. When the time came, not enough of you agreed with me. This is a good case, you substantiated the oddity from before with a lot more meat that I missed. I also noticed in his filter that he pointedly asks people to elaborate on town reads, and pressures them for not doing so. How does that help town? It puts targets on people's backs. "I'm leaning/feeling town" is good enough to say you currently like someone's posting/opinions/motivations/emotions, and giving more is often actually not very good for town. Pressuring people about town reads, I don't see how that helps town. Someone having too strong town reads--playerboy on Stormtemplar based on little, but carefully pushed little--is much more of a scum tell. Sign of knowing this person is town, or protecting a scum team mate. My read on you JonnyLaw is significantly less scummy now, and playerboy significantly more. | ||
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Blurry
Switzerland125 Posts
I will say, going forward, you guys should look at those who switched their vote from me to myluneth. This is a pretty scummy bandwagon switch so it may be a solid yield to follow. Apart from that, look at who Bereft was accusing. This may be a null lead because he may have just been the best contributer thus far but it may be something to go off of. My gut feeling is at least 2 of the scum were voting for either me or myluneth because we were easy bandwagon targets. I think its weird that Zara claimed he was voting to pressure me to say something. Thats weird play and I don't necessarily agree with that. I'm sorry I couldn't be a bigger help but RL being what it is, sometimes it just happens. I have to go because I'm setting up to dj a party but I'll check back in a bit to see if I get replaced or not. | ||
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
Been looking at Bereft, could have been on to playerboy and/or Stormtemplar. Looking into Balla right now. onlywonderboy who Bereft didn't like then, I had the same issues with, but he provided decent content when pressured. Neutral for me. | ||
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
Baja had a good contribution about MLuneth: On September 27 2013 06:53 BajaBlood wrote: Yes, in his other game (as scum) he was very sheepy early on until he started getting accused, then got aggresively defensive (think the word they used in the thread was 'shitflinging', lol). Whereas in this game, he's making reads right off the bat and playing much more in-your-face. I think his heavenz read was terrible, and a number of his other posts (including the question) are bizzare, but I'm not reading it as scum yet. Plus if we keep him around and he is in fact scum I think we'll have an easier time classifying him then some other players If it had been just a little earlier than 7 minutes before the deadline, I think it would've saved MLuneth from lynch. | ||
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RandomAccount#49059
United States2140 Posts
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JonnyLaw
United States3482 Posts
I was waiting on day 1 for you to make a post or say something that changed my opinion it didn't happen. I'm still waiting for that to happen to be honest. I don't want to lynch townies, but when someone seems scummy it's the perfect opportunity to get the town ahead with a good read. | ||
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RandomAccount#49059
United States2140 Posts
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Balla24
2322 Posts
I want to bring up the first posts of his where he brings up playerboy: + Show Spoiler + However, as to your point about me just joining Zaragon on playerboy, no, not at all. As a matter of fact, I'm not really feeling zaragon's read on him. I'm not getting solid town vibes out of him at all. He's contributed rather minimally. (7 of his posts are 1-2 lines with maybe a quote.) This is his one good post, but it's not really doing much more then throwing around short opinions on jonnylaw's reads. There is that one bit of really weird logic at the end (It's scum because any non-scum asking that question must be a town roleblocker, therefore they wouldn't post it? Kinda shaky and weird.) This is after he has been pressured by Heavenz already a little bit. He appears neutral on playerboy, he seems like he doesn't want to commit to him being town but doesn't want to push him too hard here. Only after he has multiple people on him (Heavenz, Jonnylaw) does he really turn the heat up on playerboy. IMO, this could conceivably be a bus, albeit a bad one. With all that being said, I don't think it is. Playerboy and stormtemplar's posting angles have been completely different, althought stormtemplar has been under pretty heavy pressure all game long so he's been focusing on defending himself. I don't think they are both mafia (either one or the other), but I definitely don't want to leave the possibility off the table that they are. One last thing on the stormtemplar/playerboy subject (and another reason I don't think they are scum together). Stormtemplar completely dismisses playerboy's recent post as scum without even a second thought (more on my thoughts on the post later) just because he goes against Zaragon. No elaboration here, but he continues to call him useless even though playerboy's post at least brings up something that was relevant at the time, the voting patterns. Now let me preface this by repeating the fact that I believe I made a mistake in voting on day 1, I should have voted for a no-lynch when everything came to pass, and I definitely should have noticed the blue claim. We've talked about it already and both Zaragon and I have given our reasoning. I find it odd that playerboy pretty much disregards what we said during the night and looks only at the day 1 events. But that could also just be good town play by not letting possible scum targets talk their way out of a slip. I think the post had good-intentions by looking at the voting pattern objectively and finding mob voters but the end of that day was hectic and I don't think you are taking that into account. I'm not sure what the angle would be as scum to post that though (i'm tired as fuck right now and i've been re-reading everything in night1 for ages), maybe to discredit Zaragon and I as townies since we got a blue role lynched. I'm gonna give it some more thought and definitely need to see more opinions on it when I have a fresh mind. Lastly, I've been looking through filters for any kind of alliances or non-alliances whether they seem scummy or not (meaning I wasn't looking at content for scumminess, just rather who has disagreed/agreed with each other). Jonnylaw and Heavenz Stormtemplar or Jonnylaw Stormtemplar or Playerboys Zaragon and Jonnylaw Zaragon or Bajablood Heavenz and onlywonderboy Maybe it can be helpful or maybe not. Just thought it would be interesting to see. Unfortunately it's getting late so I'm going to have to leave it at that. I was going to look at each of these pairs and see how they fit with the Bereft kill. But at first glance, it looks like Bereft might have just been a "strong-townie" kill that was not likely to be healed by doc since it was quite obvious that Zaragon was going to receive the heal. Looks like a safe kill. Anyways, I'm tired as fuck and this probably doesn't even amke any sense so goodnight T_T. | ||
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Zaragon
Sweden235 Posts
On September 28 2013 14:52 Balla24 wrote: Alright, I wasn't posting to let the stormtemplar/jonnylaw conversation continue a little while. I wasn't digging stormtemplar for mafia, and i'm still not really sure. He responds to jonnylaw's pressure well IMO. I don't think he seemed angry and he brings up the point of him bussing playerboy early on (if both were mafia). I want to bring up the first posts of his where he brings up playerboy: + Show Spoiler + However, as to your point about me just joining Zaragon on playerboy, no, not at all. As a matter of fact, I'm not really feeling zaragon's read on him. I'm not getting solid town vibes out of him at all. He's contributed rather minimally. (7 of his posts are 1-2 lines with maybe a quote.) This is his one good post, but it's not really doing much more then throwing around short opinions on jonnylaw's reads. There is that one bit of really weird logic at the end (It's scum because any non-scum asking that question must be a town roleblocker, therefore they wouldn't post it? Kinda shaky and weird.) This is after he has been pressured by Heavenz already a little bit. He appears neutral on playerboy, he seems like he doesn't want to commit to him being town but doesn't want to push him too hard here. Only after he has multiple people on him (Heavenz, Jonnylaw) does he really turn the heat up on playerboy. IMO, this could conceivably be a bus, albeit a bad one. With all that being said, I don't think it is. Playerboy and stormtemplar's posting angles have been completely different, althought stormtemplar has been under pretty heavy pressure all game long so he's been focusing on defending himself. I don't think they are both mafia (either one or the other), but I definitely don't want to leave the possibility off the table that they are. One last thing on the stormtemplar/playerboy subject (and another reason I don't think they are scum together). Stormtemplar completely dismisses playerboy's recent post as scum without even a second thought (more on my thoughts on the post later) just because he goes against Zaragon. No elaboration here, but he continues to call him useless even though playerboy's post at least brings up something that was relevant at the time, the voting patterns. Now let me preface this by repeating the fact that I believe I made a mistake in voting on day 1, I should have voted for a no-lynch when everything came to pass, and I definitely should have noticed the blue claim. We've talked about it already and both Zaragon and I have given our reasoning. I find it odd that playerboy pretty much disregards what we said during the night and looks only at the day 1 events. But that could also just be good town play by not letting possible scum targets talk their way out of a slip. I think the post had good-intentions by looking at the voting pattern objectively and finding mob voters but the end of that day was hectic and I don't think you are taking that into account. I'm not sure what the angle would be as scum to post that though (i'm tired as fuck right now and i've been re-reading everything in night1 for ages), maybe to discredit Zaragon and I as townies since we got a blue role lynched. I'm gonna give it some more thought and definitely need to see more opinions on it when I have a fresh mind. Lastly, I've been looking through filters for any kind of alliances or non-alliances whether they seem scummy or not (meaning I wasn't looking at content for scumminess, just rather who has disagreed/agreed with each other). Jonnylaw and Heavenz Stormtemplar or Jonnylaw Stormtemplar or Playerboys Zaragon and Jonnylaw Zaragon or Bajablood Heavenz and onlywonderboy Maybe it can be helpful or maybe not. Just thought it would be interesting to see. Unfortunately it's getting late so I'm going to have to leave it at that. I was going to look at each of these pairs and see how they fit with the Bereft kill. But at first glance, it looks like Bereft might have just been a "strong-townie" kill that was not likely to be healed by doc since it was quite obvious that Zaragon was going to receive the heal. Looks like a safe kill. Anyways, I'm tired as fuck and this probably doesn't even amke any sense so goodnight T_T. I'm starting to read Stormtemplar somewhat less scum as well. First defense speech, it's what I would expect; there isn't much to do except bussing your scum buddy if they overdo a town read on you. Second speech, I filter dove Stormtemplar again. Heavenz interpreted something Stormtemplar said as if Stormtemplar would be ready to follow playerboy's lead, when Stormtemplar in reality was questioning playerboy being towny as his very first read. And questioning me regarding my read on playerboy, at the same time. Meaning Heavenz interpretation of Stormtemplar at the start was flawed. Referenced section here: On September 26 2013 16:58 heavenz wrote: onlywounderboy: only oneliners, while I am not against one liners at all, just writing 1 liners lacks much content. He tries to show activness even though he has no content, perhaps he didn't know what to write in the beginning. Now after 24h you should write more than 1 liners. Zaragon: has my strongest town read so far. Blurry is really falling behind expectation, that's weird. You really should post more. lurkers:Jayte, xIvanJ You both have to participate way more. Stormtemplar is to me the most suspicious. He has 3 posts, 2 of which are about the lurker topic, and then the only relevant post While this isn't a scummy post in itself, but it's not useful either. He just joins in on Zaragon's reads, and calls out a lurker. Asks Playerboy on his ideas (probably so he can just join them in again, if they find appeal, and again gives zero reads from himself). Imho scummy. A lot of the things that followed seemed to spring from Stormtemplar's frustration. Of course, possibly, even as scum, this could arise from being pinned as scum over a misunderstanding early on and some misinterpretations of his joke about playerboy's reads. I doubt it, though I have no reason as yet to think Heavenz deliberately misunderstood in this context, but it makes a playerboy/Stormtemplar scum team a lot less likely (accounting for ripple effects and him having to be on the defense). Someone's first hesitant read playing as scum is unlikely to be that they don't find their scum buddy convincing. I could buy that he'd distance himself from a scum buddy addressing me if he's going to follow me, but that seems unlikely too--only mentioning he finds playerboy neutral, without attaching any other reads? At the moment I like playerboy most for scum. Twice now the timing of his posts, end day and end night, has really felt scummy, as if he knows what to do to set himself up for the following phase. Certainty that indicates information advantage of scum, to me. I'm assuming scum would come up with a case to discredit me for the coming day since they were betting on Bereft, and it was a long and constructed one that could be for that purpose. He just missed the little detail that I was the first interested in Blurry as well as MLuneth and thus have nothing to gain from the whole swing vote for myself if I were scum, or any potential scum linked to me. Which ought to be a pretty massive detail if he were actually town making the case. Not so obvious from the scum perspective. I need to get back to sleep, but it will be interesting to see opinions on this. Looking at other options tomorrow (including the real possibility of scum lurkers just sitting the game out, and different swing vote possibilities). | ||
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heavenz
Austria301 Posts
Zargan, that you indirectly imply that I mistook his word for what it was and not a silly joke on purpose makes you scummy. onlywounderboy is certainly Mafia btw I was roleblocked In what order are the nightactions processed? First town or first mafia? | ||
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