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Newbie Mini Mafia XLVIII - Page 14

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
September 27 2013 03:50 GMT
#261
@onlywonderboy, I mean you're only digging yourself into even more of a hole by defending it so much. If you're town you have nothing to hide. Then again people keep bringing it up. Let's hear your reads. Who is most scum to you? What do you think of everything Bereft has been saying etc.
onlywonderboy
Profile Joined August 2012
United States23745 Posts
September 27 2013 03:57 GMT
#262
On September 27 2013 12:50 Balla24 wrote:
@onlywonderboy, I mean you're only digging yourself into even more of a hole by defending it so much. If you're town you have nothing to hide. Then again people keep bringing it up. Let's hear your reads. Who is most scum to you? What do you think of everything Bereft has been saying etc.

You're right, I'm probably trying too hard to defend myself. Although, as town, I'd have nothing to hide, but I wouldn't want to get lynched and hurt the rest of the town.

I'm going to bed soon, I want to reread everything before making any claims, want to make sure I'm careful with my reads.
RIP Ryan Davis / TL or Die / @onlywonderboy
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
September 27 2013 05:08 GMT
#263
Alright I'm heading off to bed.

Onlywonderboy is feeling very scummy to me. He's overly defensive about a small detail and wayyy to conservative with his posts/reads. He is being directly asked for reads an isn't providing anything.

Let me know what you guys think... i'll be back in ~10 hours.
JonnyLaw
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States3482 Posts
September 27 2013 05:15 GMT
#264
I'll be back in a few hours as well to check the logs again. I'll give my updated opinions at that point.

Glad to see a couple awols might make it back into the game.
playerboy345
Profile Joined May 2013
Netherlands194 Posts
September 27 2013 07:22 GMT
#265
On September 27 2013 08:20 Zaragon wrote:
This, with a quote of what I actually consider the fluffiest part I've seen from Stormtemplar:

"Also, with you all on Jaytee. Where'd he go? He was clearly here, so why the disappearance? Simply going inactive is a classic inexperienced mafia behavior, and at best he's an inactive townie, which is not good for us. Obviously he's done nothing scummy, but doing nothing is itself kinda scummy. He needs to show up and post so we can get some reads."

Looking into both of them now. Rethinking my personality read on playerboy a bit and rereading him. He also seemed quite certain at the last minute that we would see a green/blue flip:

Show nested quote +
On September 27 2013 06:58 playerboy345 wrote:
I'm not too comfortable with the MLuneth lynch to be honest, I really don't get that much of a scum read from him :/


Possible sign of information advantage used to gain town credit, at that timing. Have a lot of rereading to do, might not get through it tonight


What do you mean with fluffy? English is not my first language and I really don't understand what the hell that word has to do in that sentence >.<

There were more people who didn't agree with the MLuneth lynch, in my opinion he really didn't seem all that scummy, I was expecting him to flip town which was why I was against voting him. There wasn't really a good case on him other then his posts being odd.

Would love to hear from you when you're done rereading me, I'll gladly defend anything you throw at me.


On September 27 2013 12:13 Bereft wrote:

+ Show Spoiler [onlywonderboy] +
owb I've read most of your LOL material. You can write and critically think. WHAT did you like about playerboy's analysis in particular? What are your opinions on the other twelve players in this game? I'm not liking the read I'm getting here.


stormtemplar
+ Show Spoiler +
some people have been throwing this guy's name around, but looking through his filter i find nothing that screams a scum tell, but at the same time, nothing particularly memorable. for now he's not ranked high in my book

alright i'm fking tired and my analysis is getting shittier as it goes on. i'll need to reeval some of the filters tomorrow.

here's the tl;dr: i'd lean towards wonderboy followed by baja for d2 lynch given the current situation.

i didn't bother evaluating the afk'ers. blurry, i'm holding you to your promise to post! xIvanJ is a joke -- vig should just shoot him if we still have one. funny thing is now that i think about the ridiculous nature of jayte's posts, i suspect he's actually vanilla town...


Thank god I'm not the only one that thinks onlywonderboy is suspicious/stormtemplar doesn't look that scummy. I was getting worried :/
I'll look into BajaBlood's filter later today.


So far I'm really suspicious of onlywonderboy, his last few posts aren't that good, they add nothing to the table, he said he would post reads after rereading everything/waking up so I'm interested to see what he will provide us with.

Sorry for the half-assed post, I just woke up and getting ready to go to school, will probably be able to post during the whole day.
Zaragon
Profile Joined July 2010
Sweden235 Posts
September 27 2013 15:10 GMT
#266
On September 27 2013 16:22 playerboy345 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 27 2013 08:20 Zaragon wrote:
This, with a quote of what I actually consider the fluffiest part I've seen from Stormtemplar:

"Also, with you all on Jaytee. Where'd he go? He was clearly here, so why the disappearance? Simply going inactive is a classic inexperienced mafia behavior, and at best he's an inactive townie, which is not good for us. Obviously he's done nothing scummy, but doing nothing is itself kinda scummy. He needs to show up and post so we can get some reads."

Looking into both of them now. Rethinking my personality read on playerboy a bit and rereading him. He also seemed quite certain at the last minute that we would see a green/blue flip:

On September 27 2013 06:58 playerboy345 wrote:
I'm not too comfortable with the MLuneth lynch to be honest, I really don't get that much of a scum read from him :/


Possible sign of information advantage used to gain town credit, at that timing. Have a lot of rereading to do, might not get through it tonight


What do you mean with fluffy? English is not my first language and I really don't understand what the hell that word has to do in that sentence >.<

There were more people who didn't agree with the MLuneth lynch, in my opinion he really didn't seem all that scummy, I was expecting him to flip town which was why I was against voting him. There wasn't really a good case on him other then his posts being odd.

Would love to hear from you when you're done rereading me, I'll gladly defend anything you throw at me.


Show nested quote +
On September 27 2013 12:13 Bereft wrote:

+ Show Spoiler [onlywonderboy] +
owb I've read most of your LOL material. You can write and critically think. WHAT did you like about playerboy's analysis in particular? What are your opinions on the other twelve players in this game? I'm not liking the read I'm getting here.


stormtemplar
+ Show Spoiler +
some people have been throwing this guy's name around, but looking through his filter i find nothing that screams a scum tell, but at the same time, nothing particularly memorable. for now he's not ranked high in my book

alright i'm fking tired and my analysis is getting shittier as it goes on. i'll need to reeval some of the filters tomorrow.

here's the tl;dr: i'd lean towards wonderboy followed by baja for d2 lynch given the current situation.

i didn't bother evaluating the afk'ers. blurry, i'm holding you to your promise to post! xIvanJ is a joke -- vig should just shoot him if we still have one. funny thing is now that i think about the ridiculous nature of jayte's posts, i suspect he's actually vanilla town...


Thank god I'm not the only one that thinks onlywonderboy is suspicious/stormtemplar doesn't look that scummy. I was getting worried :/
I'll look into BajaBlood's filter later today.


So far I'm really suspicious of onlywonderboy, his last few posts aren't that good, they add nothing to the table, he said he would post reads after rereading everything/waking up so I'm interested to see what he will provide us with.

Sorry for the half-assed post, I just woke up and getting ready to go to school, will probably be able to post during the whole day.


People like to use "fluff" for long phrases that don't say much, I use "fluffy" as an adjective as a joke in Mafia games because I feel it's kinder (cute animal associations; yes, I'm weird).

Good, you fit with my town image of you again from this post, too much about you tells me "town eager to solve the game" for anything else at this point. A language quirk is enough to explain the oddity I found.

onlywonderboy, please give us something. Don't be careful. Since you're new and not sure what you should be typing or not, it's better to type more, concise thoughts about the game. People will be picking at your phrasings, but we will assume you're scum if you don't say much, don't give reads, and write constructed posts. That's how a lot of scum play.

I'd say the same to Stormtemplar by now.

And our lurkers.
onlywonderboy
Profile Joined August 2012
United States23745 Posts
September 27 2013 17:22 GMT
#267
+ Show Spoiler [Blurry] +
My vote for the first night, mostly due to his in activeness. Still hasn't posted very much so it's hard to get a good read. Claims he's going to do an analysis later so hopefully that will possibly give home more insight into his allegiance.


+ Show Spoiler [Playerboy345] +
All his posts have a strong town vibe. He's going after people he think are scum and making good arguments against them. I thought using his first vote on me was odd as it wasn't likely to change everyone's mind in such a short period of time. No real signs of being a scum, but I want to keep my eye on him. If he is scum, he's in a position where a lot of people seem to be listening to him.


+ Show Spoiler [Heavenz] +
Decent amount of participation, seems town enough. Was questioned when people called him out for his town read on me, had a good response that was well reasoned


+ Show Spoiler [JonnyLaw] +
I'm torn on my opinion of Jonny. He had a really good read on MLuneth where he pretty much called him as being a bad townie, but he switched his vote to MLuneth without much debate. He claimed we would gain more information lynching MLuenth instead of a lurker, but it was pretty much a crap shoot either way


+ Show Spoiler [Stormtemplar] +
Seems the scummiest of the active players. Had opinions on the topic of “lynching lurkers,” but a lot of his other posts are just agreements and questions without posting his own analysis. Says he's busy so we'll see how the rest of his posts develop, but I'm feeling scum at the moment.


+ Show Spoiler [Zaragon] +
Was feeling scum at first since he was the first person to bring MLuneth into the vote, but his post breaking down what happened at the lynch deadline was well thought out and made rational sense. Could have been a good cover up. I'm gonna stay neural here and see how the game develops


+ Show Spoiler [Balla24] +
Another one I'm wary of. Didn't contribute much at first, but stepped up right before and after the lynch. Him and playerboy seem to be in agreement on a lot of things. I already mentioned I wanted to keep and eye on him, so by proxy it's a good idea to keep an eye on Balla.


+ Show Spoiler [XivanJ] +
no opinion


+ Show Spoiler [Jayte] +
no opinion


+ Show Spoiler [BajaBlood] +
Also brought up the idea of MLuneth being a misguided townie. Timing was a little more suspicious, happened right before the lynch when people were starting to lean towards MLuneth. Could have been him trying to gain townie cred before MLuneth was killed


+ Show Spoiler [Bereft] +
Probably a slight town read, calling people out and asking questions. Not much to say really.


That's all I got right now. While I think we should certainly keep the discussion going, throwing out day 2 lynch candidates is a bit premature right now. The night actions of the game could easily change the landscape of the game drastically.
RIP Ryan Davis / TL or Die / @onlywonderboy
Zaragon
Profile Joined July 2010
Sweden235 Posts
September 27 2013 18:00 GMT
#268
Reasonable, dulls my scum feeling of you somewhat.

I'm concerned about JonnyLaw now too. He's reading very tense to me. Worried about lurker pressure at the start--very worried very fast, I don't see the reason for that.

Joining the Stormtemplar case with very nitpicky points to substantiate his case.

Joining my case on MLuneth at the end doesn't mean anything, unfortunately, unless we would know Stormtemplar and MLuneth were both town or that someone besides heavenz was protecting Blurry.

Balla, Baja are reading neutral to me at this point.
BajaBlood
Profile Joined August 2009
United States205 Posts
September 27 2013 18:21 GMT
#269
5 minute lunchtime update:

I honestly agree with a fair amount of the criticism I've been getting - I need to step up my level of play. Particularly early-mid Day 1 I was too focused on lurkers and not on making reads / pushing on active players. I think Day 2 will go better, since it will be a weekend and I'll have more time to do more analysis (I'll be getting home a couple after the nightpost goes up today). In the meantime, feel free to keep pushing me on this if you don't believe I'm making adequate contributions.

On the other hand, I don't think it's fair to characterize my defense of MLuneth as a suspiciously timed town-cred move. I studied him while he was active, but didn't feel it was urgent to write it up ahead of the deadline (wanted to read up on stormtemplar to see if I wanted to change my vote - turns out I didn't, and can expand on that later). There were no votes for MLuneth when I started my first post after getting back from work, one occurred while I was typing my first post, and everything I wrote in his defense came before the third vote was cast (i.e. when he actually became likely to get lynched).

To be honest, I found it odd how quickly that snowballed, despite a few of us protesting. I will spend some time looking into this.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
September 27 2013 20:00 GMT
#270
Thank you onlywonderboy. I like that you are going against the popular opinions in the thread. You aren't just looking at someone's reads and agreeing with them (on Zaragon and myself especially). I like the point you bring up about Bajablood somewhat, but I find it interesting that you don't say the same thing about playerboy here before the vote:
I'm not too comfortable with the MLuneth lynch to be honest, I really don't get that much of a scum read from him :/


Right now i'm more interested in Bajablood, and I was just pressuring you so that you would actually post your reads. I'm pretty neutral on you. Bajablood keeps saying he's busy, and I believe him, but he also keeps saying he's going to do things and then doesn't do them.

Not that my opinion on this matter is new, but i'd just like to reiterate it so that maybe you (Bajablood) can make some time when you get back from work after day post to post some analysis.
RandomAccount#49059
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
United States2140 Posts
September 27 2013 20:00 GMT
#271
--- Nuked ---
RandomAccount#49059
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
United States2140 Posts
September 27 2013 20:07 GMT
#272
--- Nuked ---
Zaragon
Profile Joined July 2010
Sweden235 Posts
September 27 2013 21:06 GMT
#273
Also decent list and decent points. Not afraid to agree with me even under pressure about following (doesn't help you guys obviously, but it does me, knowing I'm town). I'd have expected more subtle support and diversions for him from fellow scum if he is scum. Neutral for me now.

But I will note, listing opinions on all the players is just a tool. Please don't use it as a crutch, everyone. A lot of the time it's better to phrase yourself shorter and with more focus; helps others read you. Scum can hide behind lists pretty easily by just casting slight suspicion on town and softening anything they would have found suspicious about fellow scum so it has no edge to it. Lists don't put much pressure on anyone so it lets you omit a scum buddy very easily.
Balla24
Profile Joined December 2011
2322 Posts
September 27 2013 21:53 GMT
#274
Alright it's the end of night 1 and still nothing from Blurry (who said he would post a full analysis by the end of the night) and the other guys, xIvanJ and Jayte.
playerboy345
Profile Joined May 2013
Netherlands194 Posts
September 27 2013 21:57 GMT
#275
So I've been reading through this thread once again and I saw something that striked me as odd and wanted to post it here and hear your thoughts on it.

On September 27 2013 03:08 Zaragon wrote:
I like the emotion in Bereft's posts, even if I can see them translate to a scum mindset. But I like Bereft as a busy townie so far.

MLuneth or Blurry IMO. Xlvanj is just a policy lynch, Jayte said something half-way decent that is non-indicative to me.

MLuneth is trying to make cases that simply contradict pro town play, as if he's against contribution or meta information and talking about "clogging up" a thread that is only 9 pages as I'm writing this. It needs more contribution, not less.

Blurry I want to see write, and give a thought process behind his first post. And input on MLuneth.

Currently,

##Vote Blurry



On September 27 2013 04:26 onlywonderboy wrote:
Unfortunately I have to be getting to work, so I'll miss any last minute deliberations. I'm going to have to ##Vote: Blurry. He's had plenty of time to defend himself so I'm not sure a least minute appeal would change my mind. He sorta flew under the radar for me, but people have pointed out his lack of contribution I agree it seems problematic.

@JonnyLaw I'll respond to your inquiry when I have more time. Short version is I liked that he was putting the time into profile everyone, not that I really agreed with all the analysis. "Great" might have been too strong of a word I suppose.



On September 27 2013 04:41 Balla24 wrote:
Alright, it's been almost 3 1/2 hours since my post. Still no sign of the lurkers.

@JonnyLaw I'm not sold on stormtemplar's behavior being scummy. I would like to both hear more from you about it on why you think his posts have been scummy and also stormtemplar's defense. But at this point I'm not really reading scum from his posts besides the fact that he hasn't really shared tooo much about his reads and has just been going off of others. At least he is disagreeing with people which I like.

With that said. We are almost 2 hours from voting and none of the inactive people have shown their faces. We have been asking for them to talk for 2 days now and nothing. Now which one should we lynch? Here i'm going to have to go with ##Vote: Blurry. He started off with a good 1st day post (very early in the game mind you), and then nothing for 2 days straight. Not only is this completely different from his previous game (which I don't think carries too much weight) but he just doesn't seem interested.

One last thing though. Both him and xIvan have only posted once and people are saying xIvan is probably going to get modkilled...would Blurry then also get modkilled?





These three vote for Blurry, why?

Zaragon votes him based on Blurry's meta. In the previous game Blurry had a good opening post much like in this game, the difference between this game and the previous game is that in the previous game Blurry continued to contribute and in the current game he didn't. This is just such an easy thing to pick on - the reason that he hasn't really contributed that much is because he has been inactive.

onlywonderboy picks it as a safe bet because he won't be able to be online for the deadline.

I don't understand why Balla24 is voting for Blurry here though, he didn't seem all that interested in Blurry before, so why pick him over Jayte/xIvanJ who are just as inactive as Blurry.





On September 27 2013 06:40 Zaragon wrote:
Got caught up in an intriguing conversation with a friend, now the hour is late.

MLuneth is the only person who has posted considerable amounts that I would vote for. I don't know if he's bad town or scum either, it's strange to assert himself like he does as either town or scum and then not to be responding now. Feels like scum constructing a case and dropping off at suspicions.

I wanted to push Blurry to contribute, he hasn't. I'm comfortable switching off him for now since he doesn't even seem to be coming in to vote.

##Vote MLuneth



On September 27 2013 06:55 Balla24 wrote:
EBWOP: But I agree with Bajablood. Having him around Day2 seems like he will slip up again if he is indeed scum. Then again, he is the only real suspicious person besides the afkers.

##vote MLuneth



Why is Zaragon comfortable with switching his vote? He says it's because Blurry doesn't seem to be coming to vote. Guess who else didn't come to vote? MLuneth. So why change your vote? Why not just keep it on Blurry as your case seems to be the same on both of them?

Also:
On September 27 2013 12:31 Zaragon wrote:

I did read MLuneth as soft-claiming a role and wanted to draw attention away from it at first. That's partly why my instinct later went "huh, I've stopped paying attention to this guy since I'm just hoping he'll live through the night... and those things he's saying make absolutely no sense. But he's trying really hard to make a case with those things. Makes sense for that mindset to use the question to protect himself as scum." Suddenly why I wanted to keep him safe became why I really thought he was scum playing badly rather than town playing badly. No response felt like scum slipping under radar. He'd have had plenty of time to make any kind of defense, unfortunately he was never around again.



In this post you claim you read his post as soft-claiming vigi. WHY THE HELL WOULD YOU EVER VOTE FOR HIM IF YOU HAD EVEN THE SLIGHTEST DOUBT THAT HE COULD BE A VIGI? This makes 0 sense to me, no fucking clue what you were thinking here. Why didn't you just leave your vote on Blurry if that was the case?


Also note that Balla24 switches his vote to MLuneth aswell. He says he's the only suspicious person besides the afkers, while I can agree that his posting was indeed odd, it doesn't explain his sudden switch. He agrees with BajaBlood:


On September 27 2013 06:53 BajaBlood wrote:
Yes, in his other game (as scum) he was very sheepy early on until he started getting accused, then got aggresively defensive (think the word they used in the thread was 'shitflinging', lol). Whereas in this game, he's making reads right off the bat and playing much more in-your-face.

I think his heavenz read was terrible, and a number of his other posts (including the question) are bizzare, but I'm not reading it as scum yet.

Plus if we keep him around and he is in fact scum I think we'll have an easier time classifying him then some other players



What BajaBlood says is don't lynch MLuneth because if he is scum it'll be easy to tell. WHY DO YOU VOTE HIM IF YOU AGREE THAT LETTING HIM LIVE FOR ANOTHER DAY WILL MAKE IT EASY TO TELL IF HE IS SCUM OR NOT? I'm sorry but that just makes absolutely 0 sense to me.


onlywonderboy: You say Blurry flew under the radar for you and that is why you voted him. Then what about the other inactives, you are not gonna tell me they didn't flew under the radar, right? So why DID you vote for Blurry? Were you in a hurry because you had to leave and left with a half-assed post? Or did you just decide to vote for him because your mafia teammates (assuming both Balla24 and Zaragon are scum) did so you could boost the votes in your favor?

I don't got much proof and this is basically just theorycrafting but I think Zaragon/Balla24/onlywonderboy might be our scum combo.

Let me know what you guys think.
playerboy345
Profile Joined May 2013
Netherlands194 Posts
September 27 2013 21:59 GMT
#276
I've been working on this for a shitton of time, I'm tired and gotta work tomorrow so I'm heading to bed, might not be able to post tomorrow till 11pmish GMT+1 (and I might not post then either if I'm really tired). Hopefully I'll be able to post/read though, I really want to know what you guys think of my theory.
BajaBlood
Profile Joined August 2009
United States205 Posts
September 27 2013 21:59 GMT
#277
Some thoughts, I'll try to add more as time goes on:

+ Show Spoiler [Zaragon] +
The most consistent pro-town voice in the thread so far. Actually to the point where I would second-guess this read if he wasn't targeted tonight, because I'm not sure why anyone would disagree. This read would get even stronger if no one dies tonight, because then I'm assuming both scum and medic are thinking the same. Obviously, I disagree with his Mluneth vote, but since it was the first vote and had more analysis behind it than later votes, it doesn't bother me that much


+ Show Spoiler [heavenz & Balla24 on MLuneth] +
I'm still trying to process this bandwagon - it happened seemingly out of nowhere (little explanation and right before the deadline). It sounded like heavenz argument was better to lynch a somewhat suspicious afk'er than risk a mislynch on a suspicious active player? Is that an accurate summation of what you were thinking, Heavenz?

Balla24 couldn't seem to explain his reasoning and had to claim it was a mistake (the post where he agrees with me then votes Mluneth was particularly baffling). I'm willing to accept that for now, since it is his first game and I can't really be intolerant of active-but-misguided players when I'm hoping for tolerance on that front as well.

Ugh, my gut wants me to be suspicious of the bandwagon, but from the rest of the thread I'm getting a moderate town read on heavenz and slight town on Balla, so it might be best for me to let it go. Plus even though it was a bad lynch, it's not like the situation was providing us with many better options...


+ Show Spoiler [Lurkers] +
Wait, you were expecting me to write more about lurkers after all that?
BajaBlood
Profile Joined August 2009
United States205 Posts
September 27 2013 22:01 GMT
#278
EBWOP - hahaha me and playerboy writing the exact opposite thing about zaragon at the same time. I'll take a look in a couple hours when I'm back from the gym
cakepie
Profile Blog Joined November 2012
985 Posts
September 27 2013 22:07 GMT
#279
Silence Pls! Daypost incoming.
onlywonderboy
Profile Joined August 2012
United States23745 Posts
September 27 2013 22:13 GMT
#280
I thought xIvanJ was going to get mod killed, saw a couple people post about that possibility and made the mistake of not being 100% familiar with the rules. Between Jayte and Blurry it was just a toss up, could have gone either way since I didn't have much info on either of them. I wouldn't say it was a half-assed post because I had to work, just that (like you said) I wanted to be fairly conservative with my vote since I wasn't going to be around.
RIP Ryan Davis / TL or Die / @onlywonderboy
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