EPTDesert Mini Mafia - Page 3
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
On August 31 2013 13:14 Alakaslam wrote: BUT I'm vt. So if you don't want me to spam I can slow it down. Asking for reads though? Better be satisfied with "oats is town, Raynepelikoneet is town, ONEGU is town, I am town, and marv is null." Will have to do. I am too nervous to lead a mislynch, and I can't reason why anything is scummy. My WIFOM scale is as broad as the pacific, everything is WIFOM to me. Excuse to not provide anything? On September 01 2013 07:58 Hapahauli wrote: Anyway we have about 15 minutes to the deadline (as I'm typing this), so I'll get some thoughts out of the way in-case I get shot. I'm pretty convinced that Marv, Sciberbia, and Rayn are town. The people out of that group right now is where I'm having difficulty. I have a lot of slight town-reads and not many scum-reads. As for tomorrow, I think the best course of action is to look at the vote count and try to see who was really trying to consolidate and help town (wiht the last minute vote) and who was not. I'd expect 1-2 scum to be off of the FT wagon. Sylencia is definetely a candidate to be scrutinized tomorrow, since he basically dropped a vote on Onegu with him having virtually no chance of getting lynched. Sylencia's play has been really strange this game. He's posting more, but is not nearly as productive as I've seen him in past games, and also has this really... "sad" air about him. Lots of frowny faces in his filter for some odd reason. He's someone I'm leaning scum on right now. I mentioned Yamato77 already. He's useful as town, and hasn't been at all useful this game. Unless he shapes up in a big way tomorrow, I wouldn't hate to dispatch of him. Alakaslam is someone who had his vote in the wrong place, but there are just these comments/lines in his filter towards the end of the day that sound remarkably genuine. Having coached several newbie games with him, I don't think he's difficult to read, and has a hard time staying genuine when he's scum. My gut-feel for this guy is town, but he definetely should be pressured to contribute. TK definetely deserves another look. He really wasn't moving his vote around much today, and I think we've given him far too much town-credit for his quick change-of-mind on Rayn early on Day 1. Circumstances, Hapa. I posted more which is different to normal because I was trying to make a bigger impact than normal since I'm always scrutinized for being a lurker. However, still struggling to work out how to deal with Day 1s, since the information is never as clear as when you probably remember me being more useful in later days. Assuming I make it to a later day, hopefully it'll show more. Day 2 Lynch - Wasn't unexpected - debears was the one who made the most convincing arguments and cases. Whether or not they were correct, scum probably feel pressured by this as a small slip would probably be picked up be him. Rayn seems to be confident knowing everything about the scum setup, and also (fake?)claimed multiple roles around debears revealing his breadcrumb. Follows up by saying debears is scum? Lol. 1 for 1 trade on debears life after a failed lynch is possible, timing is probably right for it too to start a fakeclaim war. On September 01 2013 18:04 sciberbia wrote: In case it's not obvious to the thread, I'm voting Oats because it looks like he CANNOT justify his 180 reversal on the TK read and he's taking the easy way out by voting Slam for lurking too much or whatever instead of writing any actual analysis on anyone. It's not just that he's in the thread less than normal -- it's that even when he's in the thread I just see absolutely no spark of townie insight or original analysis from him. There just isn't anything in his filter that looks like it would take him more than 10 seconds of brainstorming to come up with as scum:
Just seems like a super lazy scum game to me. I'll be very interested to hear feedback from you all because I don't see any reason not to lynch Oats today. I see Oats as more lazy/sheep at the moment. I don't really understand the jump from scum Tutan to town Tutan that much, but if he is scum there's going to be a lot more holes we uncover in the future, since that's pretty sloppy scum play if it is. That's why I'm not really satisfied with him being the primary target of the lynch when we have Alakaslam and the rayn v debears unresolved situation. Rayn will come back tomorrow saying "Sorry I was drunk last night, ignore everything I said", which honestly doesn't help us with his read on him, and Alakaslam: 3 - 4 hours later + the first quote I've put up there = stalling to do absolutely nothing. It doesn't look like he plans on being an asset to town whatsoever, and hopes to cruise along. ##Vote Alakaslam (need to see what happens with rayn before considering him more seriously) | ||
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Sylencia
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Oats: Would you believe rayn to be a vet if he doesn't take it back? Cause it doesn't add up how debears and rayn both claim the same thing, with no town Vig claim (SK is the only real answer to this but everyone has already covered how having 2 vets seems unlikely) | ||
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On September 02 2013 05:50 marvellosity wrote: Still on Oats... to the bolded, how many 'holes' do you need to call him scum? sciberbia has pointed out a few already, do you need 10? 20? Do holes = scum? To the underlined, doesn't that much more characterise his scumplay than his townplay? Answers on a postcard please. It's not the number of holes, its the size of the hole that matters. If Oats not explaining a 180 on a town read is a mild hole, there's bound to be something bigger later. I'm just not fully convinced that he's scum because he's lazy and didn't explain it. As for Oat's scumplay I don't remember the last time I was scum with him. I'm sure I was in at least 1, but that was probably the newbie game where he claimed named VT? On September 01 2013 23:13 Onegu wrote: Not really again you never really pointed anything specific out you just voted me and left. And I dont understand the sentiment that someone being lynched that wagon should just stop because they were replaced. What, I made the very concise statement about your play at the time: - No real direction in his play - He hasn't really had any reads post-debears sobering - Doesn't push hard for anyone but a lurker. When I was comparing it with what rayn said about Tutan. Looked bad then and I wasn't going to be around for the deadline. And no, wagons don't stop because of a replacement but I was under the expectation that Alakaslam would either improve his image or be lynched. Fresh player with a completely different style makes for semi-easy confirmation about townieness. In this case, he's still be super useless and has literally dodged any attempt to make a case. Again: On August 31 2013 13:14 Alakaslam wrote: BUT I'm vt. So if you don't want me to spam I can slow it down. Asking for reads though? Better be satisfied with "oats is town, Raynepelikoneet is town, ONEGU is town, I am town, and marv is null." Will have to do. I am too nervous to lead a mislynch, and I can't reason why anything is scummy. My WIFOM scale is as broad as the pacific, everything is WIFOM to me. On September 01 2013 17:32 Alakaslam wrote: Ok. I have something to figure out. Either Raynepelikoneet or Oatsmaster is scum. It is 1:30 I must sleep. But I will say why and then go I am cannon fodder vt. Oats votes me Raynepelikoneet knows I'm town. Which is town more likely to do given the ambiguous target on my back? Paint me town or lead a mislynch on me? Or towncred vs mislynch what is more valuable to scum. See y'all tomorrow. How does this even happen? On September 02 2013 17:09 Alakaslam wrote: The reason I think it is important is because I am cannon fodder . I figure you don't wan to see me "claim" again, so I won't write . It is still there but it is invisible. Anyway, scum knows I'm , and no all that skilled at defense or any such stuff. So I am an easy target to paint for a mislynch. However I am also someone to gain towncred from, by suddenly and inexplicably discerning that I am town and later allowing me to be lynched, so actually they could both be scum and ahh shit WIFOM and it seems to break down. But is there anything to this? Why does Raynepelikoneet think I'm town? Why does Oatsmaster think I'm scum? But that has become why do so many agree with him? Tutankoopa has become a null read with Raynepelikoneet seeming less awesomely clairvoyant town to me. I haven't read him, and when I replaced I had no time to make any read. So I left my vote on him because Raynepelikoneet didn't like him. But Raynepelikoneet dropped targets too quick and I'm more suspicious of him now actually. So his reasoning for his read is based on what another player thinks. But wait, " Either Raynepelikoneet or Oatsmaster is scum." -> "Tutankoopa has become a null read with Raynepelikoneet seeming less awesomely clairvoyant town to me. I haven't read him, and when I replaced I had no time to make any read. So I left my vote on him because Raynepelikoneet didn't like him." Rayn is 50% chance of scum between these two, thus I'll just trust his read. How does that make sense at all? The rest of his filter is mostly fluff and not very useful information. Slam is a good lynch here. | ||
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Sylencia
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On September 02 2013 21:30 raynpelikoneet wrote: Hapahauli how does TK's case on Onegu make no sense? Being played with someone a lot does not make you good at meta-reading them. Onegu has never played in a game where FirmTofu has been mafia! That's like the basis of a meta-read. FirmTofu has been inactive before (see GoT). It does not make him mafia, yet Onegu suggests it is "nothing like FT's town games". Guess what, it's also nothing like his scumgame either.. That's why Onegu's "meta-read" makes zero sense. Why actually you do not understand TK's case on Onegu? Er, P4 mafia I guess, but FT wasn't that lurky in P4 so it's still kinda different to his scum play LOL | ||
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If we haven't lost, either sn0 (good cases being built up, Onegu and yamato make good points) or Alakaslam should be our lynch target. Alakaslam now I'm a little hesitant because I don't think you'd be so forgetful as scum as to not vote. | ||
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Most likely LYLO, so claim time: I'm Conditional Lynchproof. Only works while water level is 750+, but if I was to be lynched the water level rises by 100 instead (and the next highest dies still). Crumbed it last night because that's when it became active (in the case of vig shots), but looks like no one caught on to it. On September 05 2013 00:26 Sn0_Man wrote: My gut says sylencia is another real candidate, at least in part because of how smoothly the lynch slid off of him D1 when its clear that the only 2 lynch candidates D1 that could possibly be scum were thrawn and him. Assume the case that I'm scum - that would mean that my scum buddies would had to have bailed me out there. Who are they from what you can see and how did they stop my lynch. It would be impossible for me to have influenced it so if there's no answer to this question, seems to me like you were stretching for a case against me. I'm happy to vote for sn0 based on the cases presented over the course of the night and today (thanks onegu, yamato, thrawn). However: On September 05 2013 19:37 raynpelikoneet wrote: This is a bad post. marvellosoity has not even tried to read Tutankoopa all game. He just decided he is town based on his couple of good posts at the start of the game (which he can't do in the first place as he didn't know who the guy was). Suddenly he decides that "thrawn is town because his posting seems better than thrawn's posting as scum". This is wrong because: 1) When people Smurf they usually play at least a bit differently than usually. 2) marv has not read Tutan's post closely all game, which is very clear just by reading the thread and knowing him. If he does not find someone suspicious he does not to care to read their posts and talk about them. marv has not tried to get a good read on Tutankoopa/thrawn all game. It makes zero sense when thrawn was smurfing, and it makes zero sense after that. Rayn's case though, is next level reading and it's something where if you read it in the eyes of scum marv, you wouldn't ever really be able to see that kind of hole because you don't consider that sort of analysis on that post. ##Vote marvellosity I'm around for a couple of hours if anyone is here for questions. | ||
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Sylencia
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On September 05 2013 22:10 raynpelikoneet wrote: Okay now seriously guys, Hapa and Sylencia: Is your rolename seriously Conditional [insert role here]?? Yes. This is a themed game, are you surprised? On September 05 2013 23:02 raynpelikoneet wrote: ##Unvote: ##Vote: Sylencia You have now been an hour here and you promised to be online. You most likely fucked up your claim and are scum. Now is time to start giving answers. The effects of playing Dota 2, 'I'll be here for the next few hours" doesn't actually end up happening =[ Also, you realise that if I was fake claiming it'd be a lot more realistic to say that I'd raise the water level by 150, since we're on 850 at the moment and it'd be a realistic number to give? On September 05 2013 22:15 raynpelikoneet wrote: Sylencia are you okay with getting lynched and marv being the second highest vote candidate? Go ahead, if that happens we're probably on 950, unless someone's got some +water crap on death. On September 05 2013 23:26 Sn0_Man wrote: This actually seems like a reasonable plan. If we are at 800 water level (we are), then lynching syl gives us 900 water level according to his claim, but would kill marv (in the situation we outlined). Assuming scum NK's score 50 water (which I've mentioned before is what I believe), we couldn't go above 950 water before we get another shot at lynching UNLESS scum have an ability to add water, but based on the rest of the setup I'd guess any such ability would be "conditional" on 250 or less water. Problems: Scum could totally have a way to boost water, and if marv and syl are both town then we lose since even if the water level doesn't go up we end up @ 3-3 next day. Oh yeah, and we have to get scum on board this plan which seems quite unlikely. All they have to do is affect the 2ndary lynch target and we lose. This part sucks. I think claiming lynchproof might be a mistake TBH. I kinda liked how this hedges our bets regarding syl though. Too bad. Of note, I still haven't figured out how rayn's vet claim can possibly make sense. Scum can't have multiple factional KP since that would enable a D2 town loss, so it would have to be a non-conditional (1-shot?) scum vig. @Hapa: is your medic protection good for 1KP or all KP that night? What is the mistake in it? Worst case scenario is I don't claim, scum wagon onto me overnight and I don't get lynched, no one considers shot 2, and we lose the game. | ||
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Sylencia
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On September 05 2013 23:47 Onegu wrote: Yeah Syl is most likely scum, I have thought he was scummy since day one, also lynching him has zero downside if his claim is true we still dont lose the game, if he is scum fake claiming scum dies its a no lose situation. ##VOTE SYLENCIA Who would be your secondary lynch choice? you sound rushed here LOL | ||
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On September 06 2013 00:29 raynpelikoneet wrote: Sylecia what is your fakeclaim? What do you mean | ||
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On September 06 2013 00:22 raynpelikoneet wrote: Okay so. There are 2 possibilities: 1) Sylencia is town. If he is town we can possibly fuck the game up. 2) Sylencia is scum. If he is scum, his claim is fake, but risking that (going 5-3) could lose us the game. I do not think Sylencia is town, because the timing of the claim is ridiculously anti-town and him choking after the claim makes me think he is not town. He would have no reason to not answer me. Now, Sylencia's motives for this is to save marvellosity. There is no other reason, people are already voting for marv, and this is a last resort big play. Syl's claim can't possibly be town because it's so ridiculously stupid. There is no reason to claim as town as he is not even being voted. We are going back to plan A and just lynch marv. ##Unvote: ##Vote: marvellosity Sno_man, my vet claim is not fake. However there is no SK. I was not shot on N1 and by now scum know there is no SK so whatevs. Ok, since I didn't see this post, you seem to rush your thoughts: 1) I'm not being voted for, how is this good timing as scum or town to claim? In normal circumstances there isn't a point. However if we mislynch we lose. If I sleep without claiming, and you guys misplay because I don't claim, we lose. If I'm scum, I'm just drawing attention to myself for absolutely no reason and it'd be a suicide play. Man, my one posts brings forth 20 rayn posts -_- | ||
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On September 06 2013 00:35 raynpelikoneet wrote: Because you are trying to look like obv scum to make a big play in 5-3 votes then mafia switching to someone to win the game during the night by roleblocking Hapa and killing him. No, you're choosing to try vote for me. Did I ever say "Hey guys, vote for me because it's going to bounce off anyways"? My claim should do literally nothing to what the current vote or the future vote shows. On September 06 2013 00:36 raynpelikoneet wrote: Your claim does not make any sense from town PoV. You are not even being in danger of getting lynched. Why the fuck would you claim as town? I'm on at least 1 suspect list, I'm going to be sleeping at some point in the near future. Chances are low that I'll be around at deadline. If you were in my shoes would you put it up to chance that no one decides to go "Hey, let's for Sy, good idea boys" -> wagon wagon wagon Flip: Sy wasn't killed cause he was lynchproof, but X was the 2nd highest and he was town. Scum wins! | ||
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On September 06 2013 00:39 raynpelikoneet wrote: Let's say we have 4 votes on X and 2 votes on Y. If someone from X switches to Y making the vote 3-3, which one of X / Y would get lynched? This game will use a simple plurality lynch. Player with the most votes at the deadline gets lynched. Unless there's two people with most votes, then the one that had more votes first takes the cake (there is no cake but he still gets lynched) ..It's written right there. | ||
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Sylencia
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On September 06 2013 00:42 raynpelikoneet wrote: Nevermind it does not matter. Sylencia, the thing is: Your claim allows mafia to win this game today in case we try to lynch you. Therefore you have zero reason to claim as town. You are not getting lynched today, although i know you are mafia and Hapahauli should know too. The reason is the following: I an veteran yeat i have a vanilla fakeclaim. I assume every blue role has a fakeclaim. You do not have a fakeclaim which means the blue role of yours is the fakeclaim. It's pretty simple. First 2 sentences: I'm pretty sure I went to sleep feeling fine for Night 1, wake up and see that a wagon could've happened on me. Same thing here. Wow, also that took me like 20 minutes to work out wtf you meant by fake claim. Exactly why do I need to fake claim? Why is it wrong to play the game as you normally would and then reveal whats necessary when required? I don't even consider this to be a proper blue role but you realise that I was essentially VT for 2/3 of the game right? Are you saying during that time I NEED to have some sort of fake claim? If that happened every time everyone who played scum would figure out who the blues are in an instant. So again, why would I need to have a fake claim as 2/3 VT 1/3 Lynchproof? | ||
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On September 06 2013 00:58 Sn0_Man wrote: Hmmmm rayn finally did somethign that makes some amount of sense. Still a bad play but it finally makes a bit of sense. Rayn is saying that the host provided him a "VT" claim. I find that hard to believe so right now I'm going with "rayn is making up shit hoping Syl will provide a fake VT claim which would prove him maf". Sorry rayn, i gave away ur game because ur really annoying. That doesn't even make sense though considering we're not allowed to quote PMs, and the extent of a VT claim is just "Guys I'm VT", right? -_- | ||
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Using that as a baseline would suggest that debears would've gotten one. Considering he quoted his PM, you can't use that rule as a blanket statement and assume everyone gets one. In any case, I'm honestly curious to see if Hapa got one as a conditional role. | ||
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