EPTBasterd Mini Mafia - Page 6
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
Going by this standard we see WOS has in fact already lost this game, the moment a third party reveals in a non ridicules setup they have effectively placed they're fate into the other teams hands. This is why WOS fake claimed, he literally had no other move, to admit hes survivor is to basically hand the game over. Also when he does reveal his play shifts drastically tone wise. Now the big question, why did WOS think scum was coming after him? What if he was actually role blocked at night? Suddenly his claim(or at least the least believable part of it) feels more believable if scum were attempting to neutralize the survivor, not the vet, whose likely the biggest threat to them ability wise. WOS's play did not feel especially town like, but It could come off as neutral from a scums perspective. Perhaps his blue claim wasn't made to convince us, but rather to convince scum that he was not survivor. So lets say WOS was actually role blocked, which is not too farfetched considering that someone was and that someone was not Lazer. WOS claims vet, in a bid to convince scum that survivor is still out there. This serves two purposes, a) it's basically a 'hey, you got the wrong guy' to scum, and b) it's an attempt at convincing scum that he could be protected by survivor tonight, this is why he claims blue(aside from it being his only option), because that improves his odds in they're eyes that he cant be shot until actual survivor is killed. Which is bullshit because hes survivor XD. Not the greatest move, but a pretty scrappy one I must say. The only flaw with the claim is that he didn't take into account an angry town mob tearing his claim to shreds. The point is though that it wouldve been better for scum to claim survivor (especially WOS) rather than the very last blue because they are more likely to survive the day as survivor (hohohoho) and thats they're only objective, maintain 2 kp for just one last day. But for survivor thats a terrible move, which might only guarantee them a day or little more to live, provided that scum doesn't shoot them at night first. WOS only makes the claim when no other option is left to him. If WOS is survivor, his play is indicative of someone who is completely screwed, beset by enemies on all sides whose had to take crazy risks just to survive one more day night cycle. This is the play of a survivor. Fuba on the other hand casually makes the claim here in this post that I'm about to tear apart. The bold is me. Sorry for getting back so late, but it looks like a lot of you figured out my role already. I'm Hans Landa - German Survivor Jailkeeper. No jail last night, since it really didn't look like I was going to be NK'd, and after that shitstorm with marv/rayn/lazer/etc there were likely better vigi shots. He accepts that weve found him so easily... and acts as if nothings changed. Also If your jail keeper, why not use your ability? Makes no sense, at the very least with a mass role claim on the way you can lend credence to your claim and maybe earn some town favour. If WoS is telling the truth, then it looks like scum has a roleblocker and saw him as possibly blue. If he's lying, then... he's scum. This is worthless, he basically says hes either scum or town... how remarkable. To make up for the Vayne lynch a bit (that came way too close for me :S), I'll offer that I, at least, didn't get a fake claim. It feels like if scum had been given fake claims, then I would have gotten one, since this setup makes massclaims really likely, and it feels like it's gonna be really hard to walk that line between town and scum. This is interesting, why does he feel so sure that scum dont have fake claims? The exact wording is as if hes throwing town a bone, though why would survivor so confidently know that scum get no fake claims? Either way hes not lying because if hes survivor he has no reason to lie and if hes scum why would he assume survivor if he had a fake claim? What we can take away from this is that Marv is probably not scum. Because this effectively confirms that they're are no fake roles either way. Though well be sure when we see Fuba flip. Oh yeah, marv, I thought I responded to your questions in my nested post. You asked what the contradictions were, and I answered it, and you asked what the "possibly scummy but sometimes townie" elements of stutters' filter were, and I answered that too. Lemme know if there's something else I missed. And if you could actually comment on what I wrote, that'd be great, instead of doing what everyone apparently does with my posts and skimming it, saying nothing, and pulling it out when they're strarving for scumreads. This is a great big ball of nothing. He basically says Marv sucks and tell him to back and read other stuff not relevant to this current situation. Also, though I didn't have time or necessarily the inclination to comment on it before, I'm pretty reasonably convinced you're town. Rayn's later posts about you were giving me a similar feeling to the post by oats I brought up earlier regarding rayn himself. There was an incredible amount of confirmation bias going on that even I could see, and I agreed with him that in that situation it was scummy for you to be suspicious of lazer. I also think your responses were in line with townie marv. I can't explain away the main reason for the scumread, since I still think the logic is for the most part sound, but with the clusterfuck of claims this thread's become at the moment, it's hard to analyze anything clearly. Says he considers Marv town, though he didn't bother saying it before, and doesn't provide reasons why now, in fact he only mentions something he found scummy about Marv. Then casually flings doubt on Rayne reads and complains it's too hard to analyze anything right now. It *is* clear, however, that there's something fishy going on with the claims, though I cba to find out what it is at the moment. I haven't slept in almost 48 hours, my brain is slowing to the speed of a snail, and I almost passed out 4 5 times while writing this post. I'll be back tomorrow, gonna need like half a day of sleep... Read what I wrote about stutters, and tell me what's actually wrong with the reasoning (not just marv, but anyone who actually disagrees with it). Says he finds something obviously fishy fishy but doesn't follow up in anyway. Then he says he wont be able to provide any analysis today, then he tells the whole thread to go and look at something thats not really relevant anymore. He barely touches upon everything thats happened, and try's to redirect town onto matters that stopped mattering 20 pages ago. Furthermore his confidence that they're are no fake claims seems to be the closest thing I've seen to a scum slip all game and his own claim is just so boring. Hes supposed to be survivor, yet the way hes producing reads is the exact same as hes been doing all game. Go back and take note of WOS's attempts not to be outed and the stark change in WOS's play when he finally was, both these things are indicative of a survivor. They're is none of that in Fuba's play, and the casual way in which he accepts that we've found him is way to chill. Lastly Fuba would have us believe that he deliberately chose not to use his ability, which I find far less believable than WOS being role blocked or choosing not to reveal who he jailed. Fuba is scum, and the person I'd like to thank for helping me come to this realization... Is Oats. | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On July 04 2013 05:05 WaveofShadow wrote: See scum? Look at what I do for you, I shut down discussion, and this is how you repay me? Shameful, sirs. I actually need to salute you, if you did what I think you did that there is some balls. | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On July 04 2013 05:33 marvellosity wrote: gumshoe, just reading through now, but - if WoS was survivor he wouldn't know if he was roleblocked, unless he tried jailing rayn. I dont know, but looking back his play is way more indicative of survivor than Fuba. Also maybe he did get roll blocked on Rayne, hes implying that he has had some kind of connection with scum. Getting blocked on Rayne might just be it. Aside from that he might have some power we dont know about thats put him jeopardy. Point is Fuba has claimed survivor but has effectively stated it means nothing. On the other side of the spectrum we have WOS who gives the impression that we know nothing and that our names are all Jon snow. WOS also doesn't tell us everything because it's not in his interest to, hes trying to win not just get through the day. Fuba comes clean (literally considering they're is nothing to reveal) because hes just trying to survive one day. Also claiming survivor in this game is a death wish because town has no doctor. With no vig in the game and an easy role block on Lazer Landa is the biggest threat to scum. Hes trying to fool them, not us. | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
not to. | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On July 04 2013 05:48 marvellosity wrote: gumshoe, if fuba is mafia, and given roleblocks aren't notified, why do you think he claimed jailing no-one instead of someone? For example, he could claim to have jailed Jarjar? Because he was frightened of a contradiction or a stupid sounding block. If he said Jar Jar would you have believed him? Of course not. His best option as scum would be to claim that he remained neutral. His best move as survivor though would be trying to benefit either town or scum with a mass claim on it's way. Only he couldn't do that because hes not survivor and hes not town aligned. | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On July 04 2013 05:52 marvellosity wrote: Why would we not believe him jailing Jarjar? Because why would you jail Jar Jar when you have the power to make an actual difference(sorry Jar Jar, Rayne and co were better choices)? It's also a choice that draws more attention to him because hes specifically picking Jar Jar. If he stays neutral then the choice is far simpler. But how does that bring him closer to winning? Look at WOS's play and you see someone trying to survive both factions, look at Fubas and you see someone trying to survive the lynch. He hasn't even mentioned that scum might target him tonight. | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On July 04 2013 06:09 marvellosity wrote: hey gumshoe. So WoS claimed vigilante who tried to shoot me, right? That means he's going to be exposed as a liar sooner rather than later, given he's not actually going to be able to shoot anyone. This means two things a) he's going to be exposed as a liar b) by claiming vigilante he's making himself a night-target. No? This is the mind fuck right here. Assuming he cant know if hes was blocked by maifa. This is all encompassing play. Hes trying to give the impression he was blocked by actual survivor XD in order to try and convince mafia he has a guardian angel. If mafia did block him. They still have to maybe come to terms with the idea that hes not survivor and that real survivor is out there, with the potential to protect him because hes supposedly blue. If they didn't then they have to assume hes either lying or Landa protected him. If they assume hes lying what do they care, hes casting doubt on the blues and throwing town into disarray. It's really quite brilliant. The problem as I mentioned is town itself not willing to accept his crazy story. I feel WOS thought he could swing it and didn't count on being chosen as scum over Lazer. He also probably counted on scums support persecuting Lazer and defending him... Which I feel he got. Oh and if they feel hes telling the truth then they have to role block him and target Landa. He may also have powers we are unaware of. Point is they're is something going on here, even if we dont know what we have to accept that it exists. Comparatively they're is nothing happening over on Fubas side. Also I dont think he believed that scum would take survivor. | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On July 04 2013 06:33 marvellosity wrote: gumshoe I've not seen thinking like this in ages, I hope to god you're both right and town because this has all been rather refreshing ^_^ Congratulate WOS not me XD Either way hes the one making dem plays. Unless were both scum, in which case... | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On July 04 2013 06:38 WaveofShadow wrote: Pretty much right aside from some (important) minor details. The survivor claim blindsided me as you can see, my posting during the claims indicated I assumed fuba would simply be fucked because he'd be forced to grab the last miller spot. Instead mafia decided to pit me against him since he was under suspicion anyway on a gamble that I'd be more suspicious and they'd keep the extra KP. They gambled poorly in my opinion. Essentially they lose fuba one day early and lose the extra KP making it easier for you guys now; had you lynched me THEN lynched fuba you'd be lost at LYLO because you have no idea where to go next. I'd like to think them losing a KP means I'm safe, but yeah....JK is a good role toi have. Above all I'm just glad your talking now. | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
Also Interesting to note he defended WOS and Fuba early on in the day and then advocated no lynch. (worst possible choice for town in my opinion, scum just shoots confirmed townies and were back to the same problem as before) But when WOS openly said he was going after mafia and claimed survivor, Oats immediately abandoned him, and didn't even consider Fuba... In other words Oats defended WOS along with Fuba because the ideal scum agenda was mislynch, when he saw mislynch was unlikely to happen he advocated no lynch. Finally when Fuba came under threat he said we should lynch WOS for sure , he said that because there was no other choice for scum... How is it that his agenda just happens to so perfectly line up with mafias (Assuming Fuba is scum, pretty darn certain, which well know by the end of the day.)? Kk, I said it, the box is open. I'm out. | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
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gumshoe
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On July 04 2013 08:21 Vivax wrote: It's mind boggling. Marv: "WoS is scum cause shooting me is so bad he can't be town." WoS: "Sup I only told you a lot of bullshit" Marv: "Oh nice well guess I can believe that from you let's go for fuba" Ignore Marv, focus on WOS, whats his best move? Scum are most likely after him because he is the most powerful role in the game. If WOS claims survivor thats gg for him, scum shoots him and no one can stop the bullet. That or town lynches him because they cant find actual scum. Either way hes essentially giving away the game. He has to fake claim in a manner that can both appease town and frighten scum. His only option is to claim the last blue. This works for him against scum because scum have to worry about the survivor still being out there, and potentially protecting him at night because hes a blue. This also is the only way he can appease town without getting into a direct conflict of identity. Hes in an impossible situation and he has to make the only move left available to him. Survivor simply cannot claim survivor in this setup. Scum on the other hand would want to claim survivor, because they dont need to worry about other scum, they just have to survive a town that needs to lynch scum today. The role of survivor is perfect for them. Also the above you've posted is incredibly diminishing of what went down. I posted a case and after talking about it I got Marv to agree after we went back and forth for a while. WOS did not convince him, I painstakingly did. Furthermore why would scum claim survivor if they had fake roles? They wouldn't, they're are no fake roles in this game therefore Marv is not scum. And those who claimed the last vanilla town roles deserve some attention. | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On July 04 2013 08:07 JarJarDrinks wrote: How is this even a debate? 3 blues already claimed and the guy who's only objective is to survive goes and claims the 4th blue spot???o_O!!! I say Poppycock! Stop thinking like a townie, your posting as if he only has to worry about being lynched. As long as they are the odds hes taking claiming blue are his best. Think about it from a scum perspective, heres a guy claiming he got role blocked and hes blue, you didn't role block him, which means survivor is out there and hes protecting blues. As scum finding survivor is now your priority. | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On July 04 2013 08:42 Vivax wrote: Of course marv agrees on switching. WoS is his fucking scumbuddy Stop talking about Marv, focus on WOS. Adress my argument with something other than your gut. Your the only confirmed town player in the game, I need you on this ) : trust me, worst case scenario we go 4 3 vs scum tomorrow. | ||
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gumshoe
Canada3602 Posts
On July 04 2013 08:44 Vivax wrote: Marv said survivor shouldn't get lynched D1 TO ME. He agrees with you on claiming survivor being terrible for survivor??? Scum are after survivor because of the setup, not town, survivor is the only one who can fuck with them right now aside from Lazer and hes questionable. | ||
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