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Well looking at JJD I'm not really sure. His early game is kind of scummy. He hard defends me when I'm under pressure which is weird seeing as I hadn't even gotten back into the thread yet. That's the part that bugs me. My first few posts weren't super fucking town so I'm getting NKd tonight good, yet JJD reads them that way. I find it hard to believe that a townie is so sure of something like that off of so little (unless he already knows I'm town).
His initial case on s0l is bad and provides him plenty of outs later. I think s0l is scummy in his own right from his continued posting but this was a bad case. Possibly setting up for a bus? Je ne sais pas I'll explore that more after doing s0l and going over Fuba's filter.
Next big thing to me is his role claim. Obviously now that we know scum have fake claims this is null.
Onto the mass role claim business. I'm not really sure what to make of his thoughts on this matter. He's gung-ho for the idea which is null but this quote stuck with me:
"I vote yes to mass claim. We will definately get counterclaims, meaning we choose a pair and @ worst get a 50/50 shot."
It made sense before we learned the specifics of the game but what bugs me is how he doesn't even consider the possibility of fakeclaims or that the game would be over. Not damning on its own but keep it in mind with his claim that in any normal game would be laughable and not have saved him. If he had a claim he'd know he could get away with this.
Moving forward, after his gumshoe push falters, he wants to lynch WoS. What happened with his scum read on s0l? Feels like he's just going with the flow instead of actually wanting to find scum.
He then defends Fuba. He showed in Les Mis he had no problem giving out a town read to a scumbuddy. It also makes sense with what I'm seeing here which is JJD/scum attempting to go all in on a n2/d3 victory. Losing Fuba d1 would have ruined that and he would have known that the mass claim would have fucked them if they couldn't end the game quick.
He backtracks on the vig call once Rayn points out how it could be game over n2. He would think that as either alignment, but when the idea wasn't picking up a lot of traction it feels to me like he was focused more on how he looked than saying it because a vig might seriously be considering it.
His list post bugs me too. He emphasizes how he needs to be shot since the mass claim is looming so he'll probably die, but with a mass claim and the assumption scum doesn't have safe claims he is utterly inconsequential when compared to killing people who have established track records of goodanalysis. Again he's emphasizing how he's confirmed, like we shouldn't even bother looking at him. Notice he's also still keeping s0l not as one of his main candidates despite adding Marv to his top scummers for no reason.
After Fuba goes 3p claim he goes hardcore bus on him despite calling him town d1.
Because I'm working hardcore right now I haven't gotten through all of his filter with this analysis but it's more of the same shit.
I'll get to s0l when I have more time and finish JJD if you guys aren't convinced.
TLDR: let's lynch JJD then s0l and win. Also once JJD flips scum Marv and Lazer are confirmed town based off of his desire for the vig on them.
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Nothing because that's obviously the best play for you to win?
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By process of elimination the only possible claim he could have had would be Miller. Claiming Miller after the first hour is not a get out of jail free card.
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If you want to live show us why your choice is better, looking for non-verifiable technicalities to get out of the lynch won't help you.
##vote: JarJarDrinks
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On July 06 2013 22:43 JarJarDrinks wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2013 22:31 Stutters695 wrote:
By process of elimination the only possible claim he could have had would be Miller. Claiming Miller after the first hour is not a get out of jail free card. Huh? Why is that the only claim he could have had?
WoS had Vig and I believe he's 3p. A second lynch target getting out of it via claiming VT wouldn't fly, especially with Marv back in the thread and I believe Marv(much to Vivax's dismay I'm sure), Gum, and Vivax are town so his only options are miller or none.
Also to get you off this WoS scum theory, can you please explain why two people of their nature would fuck up something as simple as WoS claiming RB'd vigi when all Fuba has to do is say he JK'd WoS and they might get out of the lynch and really fucked us d2. By extension Vivax must be town since if not withholding KP is straight retarded to verify a vet claim on someone who wasn't a d2 candidate when they could have done the same thing with Fuba instead of Vivax and get him off the lynch block. Vivax also could have potentially pulled off the late Miller claim when you take into account his history in like LIX.
Think about it
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Those are related to d1. Anyway I'm going back to sleep, I'll catch up on this later.
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On July 06 2013 23:17 JarJarDrinks wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2013 23:01 Stutters695 wrote:On July 06 2013 22:43 JarJarDrinks wrote:On July 06 2013 22:31 Stutters695 wrote:
By process of elimination the only possible claim he could have had would be Miller. Claiming Miller after the first hour is not a get out of jail free card. Huh? Why is that the only claim he could have had? WoS had Vig and I believe he's 3p. A second lynch target getting out of it via claiming VT wouldn't fly, especially with Marv back in the thread and I believe Marv(much to Vivax's dismay I'm sure), Gum, and Vivax are town so his only options are miller or none. Wait. You just changed your story. You said that the reason was because only miller was available to him. Now you're saying the reason is because people wouldn't allow a 2nd VT claim?
Last post on your stupid questions.
No I didn't change my story, I'm explaining in a completely plausible way what could have happened and why your theory is bad based on actions in the game. Obviously he had miller+ whatever roles his partners had (which my post pretty clearly shows would be VTs IMO) however I'm explaining that anyone halfway decent at mafia wouldn't have let him escape the noose by a VT claim after you already had, especially with his shitty posting. If they had a safe blue I bet he would have claimed it but as I explained they obviously didn't.
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Gonna run through Fubas filter to see if he was so kind as to leave us a slip on his partners. I feel like we're neglecting a fairly major resource there. iGroks post changes things quite a bit. I'll let you know what I think but I'm inclined to stick with JJD unless I spot something major.
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Seriously, like as soon as he got hit he checked out.
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Haha true that. It's just weird when it feels like his recent games have been really good compared to this one when this is completely winnable. Anyway about halfway done with Fubas filter, nothing really so far.
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I don't understand why gum has to be scum if you flip and WoS is. Am I missing something.
Also there isn't really much I could divine from Fubas filter. There are some weird moments regarding JJD/Vivax/Oats/s0l but nothing I'd be comfortable basing such an important decision off of over my previous analysis.
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Wasn't he mia constantly in Les Mis also though? I'm totally game since I'm like 99% confident they're the scum team but lynching a relatively inactive player for being inactive isn't something I'd expect from you. Do you think he's more likely scum than JJD?
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I am reading them. I was just under the impression you were more sure of JJD. Maybe I misinterpreted that.
Also WoS is a safe lynch. I must admit I'm curious to see who they'd push next lol.
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Let's hope we're right 
GG JJD
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On July 08 2013 07:02 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2013 07:01 marvellosity wrote:On July 08 2013 07:00 Vivax wrote:
It's simply the smartest thing to take the guaranteed not-town hit now. yeah but prolonging the game is an unattractive proposition with how you're playing, for example. I didn't say I would keep playing like this. It's a temporary solution.
Also, what the flying fuck vivax?
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I think my new strategy is to take my reads then do the opposite. I was so sure he was scum. Well the question is would the game end if WoS comes out and says he would stack scum's lynch target. If so we have to lynch him since he'd be scum by necessity. If not we pretty much have to stick with the plan and lynch s0l.
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That's what I'm saying. If he's survivor he has to say he'll side with scum if he wants to win. So in that case the game is already over except the waiting. The question is more would iGrok end the game if he says yes. If yes he's scum, if not it's a toss up but read my analysis on the Fuba WoS claim situation. I don't see them fucking up such a simple thing if they're scum together when they could have endgamed us d3.
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EPT
