[T] Nuclear Winter Mafia - Page 9

On July 14 2013 13:49 johnnywup wrote:

no you didn't?

On July 14 2013 13:52 VayneAuthority wrote:


Well there's quite a few scenarios

A. Ace is scum and using this to further the scum agenda closer to lylo, he did this in roulette successfully.

B. Stutters as scum gave Ace a nuke to garner towncred/trust but then when it doesn't work he changes his role to re-align with what ace said. Then Ace realizes the mistake which stutters didnt. This seems like the most likely scenario.

C. Both scum bussing eachother which makes very little sense since it would be fucking obvious after the other doesn't die at night.

On July 14 2013 13:54 VayneAuthority wrote:


His role PM doesn't say anything about the nukes being duds or anything, just that you give fake shit to people that doesn't work. We already know he lied about his PM unless the role PM is very ambiguous, but with how specific others have been I HIGHLY doubt that

On July 14 2013 13:55 johnnywup wrote:
Oh shit, you're right. Fuck. Okay, in that case it's possible they're both townie but it just seems so likely that they aren't. It's possible though. Okay, going back to the plan I said a couple posts ago then. I've got an idea that we should lynch one that's not Maju/Stutters. If the nuke lands, we have a probably dead scum and another alive confirmed scum. If it doesn't land, we have a semi-confirmed townie and an alive probable scum. I'm not sure if this is better than lynching maju, because he's probably scum, but we'd get no info out of that. Stutters isn't black or white in that case. Anyone's thoughts?

On July 14 2013 14:00 Onegu wrote:


I thought D2, and no one d1

On July 11 2013 23:03 Ace wrote:


Help me with this.

There are 2 roles that say they can produce nukes, and you do not know if Alasklam is Town. So you extrapolate that me having a nuke before night 2 = me being scum. There is no evidence that nukes can only be produced on Night 2. Whoever gave me the nuke can own up to it and solve this.

I've got 2 issues here with this;

1.) you knew this hours before this post and was active. You didn't claim this until jampi got nuked - why?

2.)Really? When did I say that?

On July 14 2013 14:02 VayneAuthority wrote:


no.

You are a Cheap Chinese.Nuke Manufacturer! You don't always make real nukes but you're pretty good at making them. Once per cycle, you may choose a nuke type and a player. That player will be told he received a nuke of that kind. The nuke won't always work but it will appear real regardless.

compare that to Toy Store, they are clearly different. One says that you can make a nuke that launches but might be a dud, while toy store only says it gave them a nuke in notifications but doesn't actually launch.

What are you trying to hide?

On July 14 2013 14:06 VayneAuthority wrote:


Ok I will try to explain it

You are a Toy Store! You don't actually make real nukes but you're pretty good at making them look real. Once per cycle, you may choose a nuke type and a player. That player will be told he received a nuke of that kind.

The role ends at target player being told they received a nuke. thats it. You do not actually make real nukes.

You are a Cheap Chinese.Nuke Manufacturer! You don't always make real nukes but you're pretty good at making them. Once per cycle, you may choose a nuke type and a player. That player will be told he received a nuke of that kind. The nuke won't always work but it will appear real regardless.

Compare that to this. Choose nuke and player. Player will be told he received a nuke. NUKE WONT ALWAYS WORK BUT WILL APPEAR REAL.

see? that is the difference. One claim ends at the role PM, the other goes on to say that the nuke will actually appear as real in the thread.

On July 14 2013 14:09 VayneAuthority wrote:


I would be 100% sure if Ace didn't fuck us in roulette -_- just the fact that I know he's capable of doing that makes it iffy

On July 14 2013 14:15 VayneAuthority wrote:


The first thing I thought of when I saw his few different roleclaims was that he was trying to make a play like rayn did, thats always a possibility. He could have been trying to fuck with Ace but now Ace is fucking with him.

On July 14 2013 14:35 VayneAuthority wrote:


The correct play is to consult the hosts but since its a strictly closed setup the second best action is probably to leave it untouched right now and see what Maju flips or if he even flips at all. It should be something we talk about tomorrow not today

On July 13 2013 08:39 Onegu wrote:
Umm it is possible I killed firm tofu I visited him last night...

On July 14 2013 23:23 Onegu wrote:

arent we past the 12hr now?

On July 14 2013 15:31 johnnywup wrote:
This brings a dilemma however. If we don't lynch MG, then it's possible that scum still has 2 KP tonight, if the nuke is indeed a dud. If we mislynch it's triply bad. If we just lynch MG, okay, we lose 1 person. Of course we'll be trying to lynch scum but the possibility is troubling if we mess up. If we lynch someone else outside the situation, and it turns out to be a townie, then we lose 1 during day and 2 at night. Of course, if we lynch outside the situation and hits a scum we're in a GREAT position, we're almost done. There are 18 alive right now I believe (correct me if I miscounted) which means 14 town and 4 scum, at BEST (assuming no 3p for sake of argument--including 3p only makes it worse)

So as far as I can see there's the following possibilities:

+ Show Spoiler +

(assuming if we hit scum today we get rid of 1 KP, there is 5 total scum, and the rest are townie, and if we lynch MG we don't know whether or not the nuke would hit)


Averaging the outcomes (if outcomes are equal---which they are obviously not, but just something to consider)
Lynching outside the situation or lynching stutters: 11.833333 townies on day 4 with 3.16666 scum
Lynching MG: 12 townies on day 4, 3.5 scum

Lynching outside the situation therefore has more townies/scum on average, and is probably a better pick than lynching MG. Although I included lynching stutters as an option I don't think it's a good idea at all because it lends itself to REALLY bad situations imo.

However I haven't taken into account that if the nuke doesn't hit then Stutters is probably town and if it does hit he's probably scum. Intuition tells me that lynching outside of the situation lends to better results if you take that into account.

But back to the dilemma. Best possible scenario: Lynch outside of the situation, hit scum, nuke lands, MG flips scum.

Worst possible scenario: Lynch outside of the situation, hit town, nuke lands, MG flips town.

Most likely scenario IMO (sorry town but after 2 mislynches I have less faith): We lynch outside of the situation, hit town, nuke may or may not land. The problem I have is that if the nuke doesn't land we lose 3 townies for nothing in this situation, when we could have lynched a (relatively) confirmed scum. On the other hand, if we do decide to lynch MG, we get no information on Stutters from this at all. So I'm really torn.



What does everyone else think?

On July 15 2013 00:35 Oatsmaster wrote:
Sentinal makes a lotta sense with the dont lynch MG cause then we dont know if stutters is lying or Ace or whatnot.

But I dont agree with his choice of lynch target. I have played with scum chez and it really doesnt seem like it.
Scum chez purposely makes his stuff unreadable and in general, while posting ok amounts, is really useless.
This chez is not useless and is useful. Dont lynch this chez cause hes town.

Lets lynch Gumshoe guys, not austin. Austin is one of the main posters and even if he is mafia, he is still helping to make the thread productive. Which is good. Not geript either.
GUMSHOE
##vote Gumshoe