EPTWorking on my *wall of text*(TM) at the moment. It should be ready before sometime before deadline.
[T] Nuclear Winter Mafia - Page 17
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
Working on my *wall of text*(TM) at the moment. It should be ready before sometime before deadline. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
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Xatalos
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On July 13 2013 03:05 geript wrote: @Xat. You agree that many should be lynched and not nuked? You mean MajuGarzett? No, I think he should be nuked. I haven't heard anyone defending him after jampidampi's flip and I doubt scum would even bother tomorrow (too much risk, too little gain). | ||
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Xatalos
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On July 13 2013 03:41 FirmTofu wrote: Hey guys I'm back. If I am correct in my understanding, Xatalos has a nuke but cannot use it because he has passed he deadline? Can you please confirm, Xatalos? If so, this is easily resolved. Medics on Xatalos, now. We need Xatalos alive because he is a 1) An almost confirmed town 2) Can vigi kill someone. I'm not entirely convinced Stutters would be the best target just because he also bussed Dandel. I'd like to discuss the nuke target first. Ace apparently launched a nuke at Maju, but nothing actually happened... Was Ace lying as I initially thought? Remember, we still haven't heard from the person who supposedly gave him a maju during Day 2. He also has not confirmed my story yet. I got a PM that I received a nuke, but then I was informed by Artanis that it was a mistake and that I would get it at the start of D2 and not yet. Ace passed the deadline without launching his nuke and thus couldn't launch it anymore (apparently). | ||
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Xatalos
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On July 13 2013 03:50 johnnywup wrote: saying that in thread almost guarantees you die. Why would you do that? :| I mean I think it's likely you'd die anyways but this almost guarantees it It was already evident from what I said earlier, just explained it to him. | ||
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Xatalos
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On July 13 2013 03:51 FirmTofu wrote: @xatalos What do you think of the theory that Dandel told most of his scum team to bus him day 1 because he didn't feel like playing? I'm starting to think this is exactly what happened. It is evidence by the fact that Dandel nor XigXag ever put up a decent fight defending themselves. There were plenty of lukers, isn't it odd that the one lurker who is mafia gets picked on first? Couldn't mafia relatively easily redirect the wagon to another lurker before it picked up steam? I'm thinkin that the reason mafia never redirected the wagon was because they wanted Dandel dead to establish themselves as part of a wagon that flipped scum. I wouldn't find it odd at all if some of the scum were bussing DI (definitely not all of them though, makes no sense to connect your team together like that). | ||
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On July 13 2013 04:40 johnnywup wrote: I know you said it earlier but it just hurts your chances of surviving xata  Inevitable :/ I was PM'd that I got a nuke, I mentioned it. Then I got PM'd that I don't have a nuke yet... Well, I'm screwed. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
As a sidenote, my "last will" is finally finished  Yay!! | ||
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On July 13 2013 05:59 Koshi wrote: geript, can you explain to me how people search for scum in mafia? Because clearly I am doing it wrong. Isn't it by picking unlogical posts and analyze them? Remember that scum can be logical and town can be illogical (geript is a prime example). What matters is the motivation behind a post. Are scum using logic to defend their scumbuddy? Or are scum using faulty logic to push a mislynch? For example. | ||
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On July 13 2013 05:58 Stutters695 wrote: And I didn't send a nuke to anyone d1 Why not? | ||
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On July 13 2013 04:50 VayneAuthority wrote: if there are any mafia on the day 1 DL lynch its 1 or 2 AT MOST because look at the flips that were on him, all town so far. There are far scummier people on the neither wagon, aka the useless votes. I agree. | ||
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Xatalos
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On July 13 2013 06:30 Koshi wrote: Ok thx I will try to do this. I hope your post is good and I will work on that. Do you think it is a good strategy to look for scumclusters? Maybe I can search who is friends with who in this thread? You can use already flipped scum (XigXag) while looking for connections. Non-flipped but very likely scum (MajuGarzett) should be used cautiously (if at all). It's a good bonus argument to use connections but it shouldn't be the main argument. Mainly you should look at a player himself, his posts, actions, motives. Are there scum motives behind some of his posts? Isn't there a reasonable chance of it being stupid/illogical/mistaken town? If yes, you found a scum. | ||
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Xatalos
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On July 13 2013 06:35 FirmTofu wrote: Xata, can't u post it now? Don't night actions have to be submitted 1 hour before the deadline? Really? Can someone confirm this? | ||
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On July 13 2013 06:53 Stutters695 wrote: There were enough floating around already and I didn't have a solid enough town read to give it to due to not being here You didn't consider me town..? Huh. | ||
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Now I'm pretty sure I'm on the right track though. I ask every player to take a good look at this post and point out if there are any mistakes or flawed logic. Unless I'm somehow severely mistaken, I think I've confidently found 2 scum (austinmcc and MajuGarzett). Everyone go read their filters through carefully! I've divided this post into three parts: 1) scum, 2) 3rd party and 3) townreads. The first part includes those to be lynched next, the second one includes some interesting and IMO likely correct speculation (shouldn't be taken as holy truth though), and the third one includes my townreads (which I'm pretty confident in). 1) Scum austinmcc 1) Marvellosity once coached me and gave me valuable pointers on how to find scum. I just remembered one of them that fits austinmcc absolutely perfectly: "people happy to start a wagon but then fade into the background again". austinmcc has done that twice now. He made a case on ON, voted on him first and started fading into the background. Then he voted first on jampidampi (without really much of a case this time though) and started fading into the background (at least he made some reasonable posts this time around, maybe because I criticized him about the last time, but none of those had any impact really). 2) Completely apathetic attitude throughout D1 (and later on as well, only less obviously). 3) Main reason for saving DI/XigXag (scum) D1 with his case - "null" read on MajuGarzett and conveniently goes for jampidampi instead 4) Intentionally avoided talking about rayn's claim - "others were already talking about it" (would a town ever say this?) 5) Half-assed suspicions without really even calling the player scum/scummy (on Oatsmaster and FirmTofu) 6) Pumped me for reads at the end of N1 (I should have realized that it was probably used by him to decide if he should NK me or not... apparently I wasn't correct enough I guess) MajuGarzett 1) His first content-post is very... weak and careful, basically focusing to just doing something for the sake of doing something and staying off the radar 2) Same theme continues with his second content-post during D2... weak and careful, nothing decisive or new to the discussion 3) Lots of useless fluff that appears semi-contributive on first look 4) A vague show of "interest" to rayn's claim, then conveniently going away until the matter was more or less already resolved These two players NEED to die ASAP. I'm willing to bet even a temporary ban from TL.net or something like that if one of these flips town after all. I'm torn on the remaining scum. VayneAuthority seems scummy for pursuing MajuGarzett all the way (until jampidampi started piling votes) - then he just suddenly voted jampidampi with some random meta reason........ What? But there's the huge problem of them basically wanting each other dead for large periods of time. Double bussing so hard? Feels a bit unlikely. strongandbig's vote for DI during D1 seemed extremely much like bussing/distancing. He voted "because I don't like him". Lol? Goes well with the theory of some scum going for the bus/distancing for DI's eventual red flip. His roleclaim seems to have actually been somewhat breadcrumbed, but I doubt only town would have Immune Ones... strongandbig tunneling VayneAuthority makes them quite unlikely scum together. Stutters695, Z-Boson, Chezinu.... They're also plausible scum. Maybe even johnnywup after all. Hard to say about them though (except I have something else to say about Z-Boson next). 2) 3rd Party I'm going to make some major assumptions in this part. As such, this part can hardly be called conclusive - more like relatively safe speculation. First we have this in the rules: "There may or may not be third party multiple nuke firing planar dragons in this game." This suggests that there is somewhat likely a 3rd party capable of launching nukes (maybe even more than one, although that's extremely unlikely given the lack of more than 1 stealth nuke per day). We have so far had 2 stealth nukes in the game. The first one was on Meapak - a reasonable scum nuke. The second one was on Ace - a not so reasonable scum nuke. Ace's town credit is a lot better at the moment, but at the time rayn had just made a major case against him, I was pushing him and several people were considering him for lynch. It would have made much more sense to nuke someone actually townish and respected/trusted. There's also still a possibility of Ace playing a really good scum game, in which case this nuke would make absolutely zero sense as a scum nuke. However! It all makes sense if it comes from a 3rd party (some kind of nuke-launching SK apparently). He's obviously not going to claim the nuke (zero reason to do so). He's also not going to nuke the most townish and thus anti-scum players, but rather players who he wants dead for his own reasons (this behaviour fits Ace well and actually even Meapak - Meapak started really appearing pro-town only AFTER he was nuked, not before! - this means that the nuke on Meapak doesn't make too much sense from a scum perspective either). Not only did both of those nukes have unclear motivations behind them (not necessarily pro-town, not necessarily anti-town). What's more, they were both launched 1) with the same kind of stealth mechanism 2) soon after the day (D1/D2) had started 3) without claiming. This leads me to a (IMO) pretty safe assumption: both of those nukes came from the same 3rd party player. I'll also make one more, in my mind reasonable assumption. I doubt the 3rd party would have another powerful active ability in addition to launching these nukes. Probably he has some sort of passive ability (immune to nukes, bulletproof etc.). But it feels a bit too much to have something like multiple nukes + passive ability (3rd party almost always has something like this) + anti-nuke etc. You don't necessarily have to agree with this assumption, even though I think it's reasonable - then you can just skip this one assumption and proceed without it. But if we remove players who have been proven to have used powerful active abilities so far (Sentinel, Chezinu, Oatsmaster, WaveofShadow, MajuGarzett, geript, johnnywup, Stutters695 - why would he lie about giving a nuke to Ace and risk being counterclaimed?) we have these players left as options: Koshi Z-Boson Ace Onegu VayneAuthority strongandbig gumshoe CaucasianAsian Alakasam FirmTofu austinmcc This is a big list. So I'll remove those whom I think are likely town atm: Z-Boson VayneAuthority strongandbig austinmcc My pick for the 3rd party out of these would be Z-Boson. Why? I get a weird feeling from him. He doesn't seem to have either a town agenda OR a scum agenda! Let's see his actions: Scummy: - Very uninvolved in the game specifically close to deadlines (D1 randomly votes CA, D2 sheeps me to jampidampi) - His posts don't feel that spontaneous even though they include a lot of one-liners - He isn't really pushing things or impacting the game, despite having a solid amount of posts (some of them even with decent content) Not scummy: - Has some genuine-looking scumhunting (looks like he doesn't really know who the scum are) - not only that, but he focuses a lot on austinmcc (very likely scum IMO) - Has some posts where he looks like he's figuring something out about the scumteam This read is more of a speculation, but keep it in mind 3) Townreads Koshi Clearly putting in effort and trying to scumhunt. Oatsmaster Saved me. Saved Ace. Reasonably active. Sentinel Nuked XigXag (scum). Ace Reacted townishly to being nuked. Tunneled XigXag (scum). Onegu Genuine-feeling posts and especially a genuine-feeling roleclaim all around. geript Active, pushing and changing his opinions logically (unless you count his role usage... WTF???). gumshoe Doesn't seem hesitant to talk about anything, even matters negative for him (early on the meta point, recently also that new scum meta point). CaucasianAsian Somewhat confusing posts, but seems to write what he's thinking (hard to imagine scum faking all that lol). Alakasam Carefree and spontaneous posting style. WaveofShadow Saved Meapak. Reasonably active. FirmTofu Heavily pushing his own opinions. | ||
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